UNC Tar Heels Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the UNC Tar Heels. All of these projections for North Carolina are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

North Carolina Record and Rankings

Record: 27-6
Projected Final Record: 27.0-6.0

ACC Conference Record: 16-2
Projected Final ACC Record: 16.0-2.0
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 2

North Carolina Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 4
RPI Rank: 4
NET Rank: 7
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 1 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 9-4 5-2 8-0 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.692 0.714 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the UNC Tar Heels a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account North Carolina’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 56.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 38.4%
NCAA #3 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UNC Tar Heels. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

North Carolina Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 14 Wofford Away W 78-67
11/9 288 Elon Away W 116-67
11/12 135 Stanford Home W 90-72
11/16 328 Tennessee Tech Home W 108-58
11/19 242 St Francis PA Home W 101-76
11/22 40 Texas Neutral L 89-92
11/23 116 UCLA Neutal W 94-78
11/28 8 Michigan Away L 67-84
12/5 273 UNC Wilmington Home W 97-69
12/15 7 Gonzaga Home W 103-90
12/22 5 Kentucky Neutral L 72-80
12/29 75 Davidson Home W 82-60
1/2 101 Harvard Home W 77-57
1/5 121 Pittsburgh Away W 85-60
1/8 33 NC State Away W 90-82
1/12 25 Louisville Home L 62-83
1/15 103 Notre Dame Home W 75-69
1/19 84 Miami FL Away W 85-76
1/21 17 Virginia Tech Home W 103-82
1/29 99 Georgia Tech Away W 77-54
2/2 25 Louisville Away W 79-69
2/5 33 NC State Home W 113-96
2/9 84 Miami FL Home W 88-85
2/11 1 Virginia Home L 61-69
2/16 151 Wake Forest Away W 95-57
2/20 2 Duke Away W 88-72
2/23 10 Florida St Home W 77-59
2/26 36 Syracuse Home W 93-85
3/2 31 Clemson Away W 81-79
3/5 119 Boston College Away W 79-66
3/9 2 Duke Home W 79-70
3/14 25 Louisville Neutal W 83-70
3/15 2 Duke Neutral L 73-74