UNC Tar Heels Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the UNC Tar Heels. All of these projections for North Carolina are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

North Carolina Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 22.9-7.1

ACC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final ACC Record: 12.7-5.3
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 2

North Carolina Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 5
RPI Rank: 5
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 1 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Our current projections give the UNC Tar Heels a 97.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 2.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account North Carolina’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 18.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 63.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 6.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.4%
NIT #2 Seed 0.8%
NIT #3 Seed 0.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UNC Tar Heels. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

North Carolina Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 120 Wofford Away W 78-67
11/9 224 Elon Away W 116-67
11/12 66 Stanford Home 92%
11/16 311 Tennessee Tech Home 99.4%
11/19 202 St Francis PA Home 98.7%
11/22 54 Texas Neutral 81.6%
11/28 9 Michigan Away 52.6%
12/5 234 UNC Wilmington Home 98.8%
12/15 3 Gonzaga Home 57.3%
12/22 11 Kentucky Neutal 54.2%
12/29 97 Davidson Home 93%
1/2 147 Harvard Home 98.4%
1/5 177 Pittsburgh Away 91.9%
1/8 25 NC State Away 58.5%
1/12 38 Louisville Home 87.5%
1/15 41 Notre Dame Home 87.8%
1/19 23 Miami FL Away 58.5%
1/21 22 Virginia Tech Home 83.8%
1/29 96 Georgia Tech Away 79.7%
2/2 38 Louisville Away 61.8%
2/5 25 NC State Home 85%
2/9 23 Miami FL Home 85.2%
2/11 4 Virginia Home 60.8%
2/16 103 Wake Forest Away 79.7%
2/20 1 Duke Away 15.3%
2/23 10 Florida St Home 74.3%
2/26 26 Syracuse Home 85.4%
3/2 21 Clemson Away 58.2%
3/5 69 Boston College Away 71.2%
3/9 1 Duke Home 42.2%