UNC Tar Heels Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the UNC Tar Heels. All of these projections for North Carolina are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

North Carolina Record and Rankings

Record: 21-7
Projected Final Record: 22.7-8.3

ACC Conference Record: 10-5
Projected Final ACC Record: 11.7-6.3
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 3

North Carolina Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 10
RPI Rank: 4
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 2 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 8-5 4-1 3-1 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.615 0.800 0.750 1.000

Our current projections give the UNC Tar Heels a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account North Carolina’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 29.4%
NCAA #2 Seed 46.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 19.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UNC Tar Heels. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

North Carolina Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 144 Northern Iowa Home W 86-69
11/15 117 Bucknell Home W 93-81
11/20 90 Stanford Away W 96-72
11/23 253 Portland Portland, OR W 102-78
11/24 25 Arkansas Portland, OR W 87-68
11/26 4 Michigan St Portland, OR L 45-63
11/29 20 Michigan Home W 86-71
12/1 94 Davidson Charlotte, NC W 85-75
12/3 174 Tulane Home W 97-73
12/6 251 W Carolina Home W 104-61
12/17 15 Tennessee Away W 78-73
12/20 134 Wofford Home L 75-79
12/23 14 Ohio St New Orleans, LA W 86-72
12/30 106 Wake Forest Home W 73-69
1/3 31 Florida St Away L 80-81
1/6 1 Virginia Away L 49-61
1/9 82 Boston College Home W 96-66
1/13 54 Notre Dame Away W 69-68
1/16 12 Clemson Home W 87-79
1/20 122 Georgia Tech Home W 80-66
1/22 32 Virginia Tech Away L 69-80
1/27 44 NC State Home L 91-95
1/30 12 Clemson Away L 78-82
2/3 209 Pittsburgh Home W 96-65
2/8 6 Duke Home W 82-78
2/10 44 NC State Away W 96-89
2/12 54 Notre Dame Home W 83-66
2/17 41 Louisville Away W 93-76
2/21 49 Syracuse Away 57.8%
2/27 45 Miami FL Home 85.4%
3/3 6 Duke Away 26.2%