UNC Tar Heels Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the UNC Tar Heels. All of these projections for North Carolina are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

North Carolina Record and Rankings

Record: 14-4
Projected Final Record: 22.5-8.5

ACC Conference Record: 4-1
Projected Final ACC Record: 12.5-5.5
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 3

North Carolina Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 10
RPI Rank: 16
NET Rank: 12
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 3 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-4 4-0 4-0 4-0
Win % by Tier 0.333 1.000 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the UNC Tar Heels a 95.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 2.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 2.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account North Carolina’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 5.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 22.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 31.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 15.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 12.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.2%
NIT #2 Seed 0.4%
NIT #3 Seed 0.4%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.4%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UNC Tar Heels. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

North Carolina Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 35 Wofford Away W 78-67
11/9 315 Elon Away W 116-67
11/12 130 Stanford Home W 90-72
11/16 335 Tennessee Tech Home W 108-58
11/19 243 St Francis PA Home W 101-76
11/22 36 Texas Neutral L 89-92
11/23 96 UCLA Neutal W 94-78
11/28 6 Michigan Away L 67-84
12/5 220 UNC Wilmington Home W 97-69
12/15 5 Gonzaga Home W 103-90
12/22 8 Kentucky Neutral L 72-80
12/29 69 Davidson Home W 82-60
1/2 145 Harvard Home W 77-57
1/5 65 Pittsburgh Away W 85-60
1/8 33 NC State Away W 90-82
1/12 21 Louisville Home L 62-83
1/15 82 Notre Dame Home W 75-69
1/19 97 Miami FL Away W 85-76
1/21 11 Virginia Tech Home 64.1%
1/29 89 Georgia Tech Away 74.8%
2/2 21 Louisville Away 48.5%
2/5 33 NC State Home 83.3%
2/9 97 Miami FL Home 92.6%
2/11 1 Virginia Home 40.5%
2/16 164 Wake Forest Away 88.9%
2/20 3 Duke Away 16.7%
2/23 27 Florida St Home 78.7%
2/26 41 Syracuse Home 85%
3/2 44 Clemson Away 58.8%
3/5 123 Boston College Away 78.2%
3/9 3 Duke Home 44.3%