UNC Wilmington Seahawks Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the UNC Wilmington Seahawks. All of these projections for UNC Wilmington are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

UNC Wilmington Record and Rankings

Record: 7-13
Projected Final Record: 12.2-18.8

Colonial Conference Record: 3-4
Projected Final Colonial Record: 8.2-9.8
Projected Final Rank in the Colonial: 6

UNC Wilmington Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 220
RPI Rank: 195
NET Rank: 226
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-4 0-3 1-4 5-2
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.200 0.714

Our current projections give the UNC Wilmington Seahawks a 1.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 98.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UNC Wilmington’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 1.6%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UNC Wilmington Seahawks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UNC Wilmington Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 221 Campbell Away L 93-97
11/9 130 Stanford Home L 59-72
11/13 53 UNC Greensboro Home L 61-82
11/18 No Rank Allen Home W 113-74
11/23 228 Arkansas St Neutal W 78-64
11/24 173 Gardner Webb Neutral L 72-81
11/25 222 E Illinois Neutal W 82-65
11/27 212 East Carolina Home W 95-86
12/1 69 Davidson Home L 85-91
12/5 10 North Carolina Away L 69-97
12/15 68 Furman Away L 50-93
12/19 87 Georgia St Away L 71-86
12/21 194 Mercer Away L 73-77
12/29 120 Col Charleston Home L 66-73
1/3 246 James Madison Away W 86-83
1/5 298 Towson Away W 67-61
1/10 203 Delaware Home L 69-82
1/12 223 Drexel Home W 97-83
1/17 58 Hofstra Away L 72-87
1/19 105 Northeastern Away L 71-88
1/24 226 William & Mary Home 57.8%
1/26 315 Elon Home 82.8%
1/31 298 Towson Home 77.2%
2/2 246 James Madison Home 63.1%
2/7 223 Drexel Away 40.9%
2/9 203 Delaware Away 36.2%
2/14 105 Northeastern Home 31.7%
2/16 58 Hofstra Home 21.8%
2/21 315 Elon Away 58.5%
2/23 226 William & Mary Away 37.9%
3/2 120 Col Charleston Away 14.3%