UNLV Rebels Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the UNLV Rebels. All of these projections for UNLV are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

UNLV Record and Rankings

Record: 20-13
Projected Final Record: 20.0-13.0

Mountain West Conference Record: 9-11
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 9.0-11.0
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 8

UNLV Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 102
RPI Rank: 135
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-5 2-3 6-5 11-0
Win % by Tier 0.167 0.400 0.545 1.000

Our current projections give the UNLV Rebels a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UNLV’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UNLV Rebels. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UNLV Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/11 337 Florida A&M Home W 108-66
11/15 287 Prairie View Home W 98-63
11/17 131 E Washington Home W 91-76
11/20 314 Rice Las Vegas, NV W 95-68
11/22 56 Utah Las Vegas, NV W 85-58
11/25 249 Southern Utah Home W 101-82
11/29 124 Northern Iowa Away L 68-77
12/2 16 Arizona Home L 88-91
12/5 224 Oral Roberts Las Vegas, NV W 92-66
12/9 112 Illinois Las Vegas, NV W 89-82
12/16 186 Pacific Away W 81-76
12/20 348 MS Valley St Home W 95-63
12/22 118 N Colorado Home W 94-91
12/30 66 Boise St Home L 74-83
1/3 313 San Jose St Away W 82-76
1/6 141 Utah St Home L 78-85
1/10 218 Air Force Away W 81-76
1/17 99 New Mexico Home L 81-85
1/20 215 Colorado St Away W 79-74
1/23 89 Fresno St Away L 63-69
1/27 64 San Diego St Home W 88-78
1/31 313 San Jose St Home W 76-67
2/3 66 Boise St Away L 91-93
2/7 34 Nevada Away W 86-78
2/10 109 Wyoming Home W 85-70
2/14 218 Air Force Home W 81-73
2/17 64 San Diego St Away L 56-94
2/21 89 Fresno St Home L 64-77
2/25 99 New Mexico Away L 90-91
2/28 34 Nevada Home L 75-101
3/3 141 Utah St Away L 67-79
3/7 218 Air Force Home W 97-90
3/8 34 Nevada Home L 74-79