UNLV Rebels Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the UNLV Rebels. All of these projections for UNLV are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

UNLV Record and Rankings

Record: 19-8
Projected Final Record: 21.1-9.9

Mountain West Conference Record: 8-6
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 10.1-7.9
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 4

UNLV Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 86
RPI Rank: 120
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-2 1-3 8-2 9-1
Win % by Tier 0.333 0.250 0.800 0.900

Our current projections give the UNLV Rebels a 25.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 5.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 69.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UNLV’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 12.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 12.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.4%
NIT #5 Seed 2.4%
NIT #6 Seed 2.8%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UNLV Rebels. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UNLV Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/11 344 Florida A&M Home W 108-66
11/15 285 Prairie View Home W 98-63
11/17 162 E Washington Home W 91-76
11/20 330 Rice Las Vegas, NV W 95-68
11/22 52 Utah Las Vegas, NV W 85-58
11/25 272 Southern Utah Home W 101-82
11/29 144 Northern Iowa Away L 68-77
12/2 18 Arizona Home L 88-91
12/5 229 Oral Roberts Las Vegas, NV W 92-66
12/9 121 Illinois Las Vegas, NV W 89-82
12/16 168 Pacific Away W 81-76
12/20 350 MS Valley St Home W 95-63
12/22 123 N Colorado Home W 94-91
12/30 59 Boise St Home L 74-83
1/3 321 San Jose St Away W 82-76
1/6 132 Utah St Home L 78-85
1/10 226 Air Force Away W 81-76
1/17 136 New Mexico Home L 81-85
1/20 204 Colorado St Away W 79-74
1/23 80 Fresno St Away L 63-69
1/27 89 San Diego St Home W 88-78
1/31 321 San Jose St Home W 76-67
2/3 59 Boise St Away L 91-93
2/7 23 Nevada Away W 86-78
2/10 103 Wyoming Home W 85-70
2/14 226 Air Force Home W 81-73
2/17 89 San Diego St Away L 56-94
2/21 80 Fresno St Home 57.3%
2/25 136 New Mexico Away 52.2%
2/28 23 Nevada Home 41.5%
3/3 132 Utah St Away 55.7%