UNLV Rebels Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the UNLV Rebels. All of these projections for UNLV are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/14/2019.

UNLV Record and Rankings

Record: 13-11
Projected Final Record: 16.2-13.8

Mountain West Conference Record: 7-5
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 10.2-7.8
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 4

UNLV Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 156
RPI Rank: 169
NET Rank: 159
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 1-1 3-5 9-2
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 0.375 0.818

Our current projections give the UNLV Rebels a 1.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 98.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UNLV’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UNLV Rebels. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UNLV Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 144 Loy Marymount Home L 50-61
11/13 324 UC Riverside Home W 72-51
11/16 224 Oakland Home W 74-61
11/20 190 Pacific Home W 96-70
11/23 240 Southern Utah Home W 76-71
11/28 193 Valparaiso Home L 64-72
12/1 26 Cincinnati Home L 61-65
12/8 79 Illinois Away L 74-77
12/15 91 BYU Neutal W 92-90
12/22 163 Hawaii Away W 73-59
12/23 176 Indiana St Neutral L 79-84
12/25 131 Bucknell Neutral L 72-97
1/2 210 Colorado St Home W 78-76
1/5 308 Wyoming Home W 68-56
1/8 171 New Mexico Away W 80-69
1/16 237 Air Force Away L 88-106
1/19 338 San Jose St Home W 94-56
1/22 171 New Mexico Home W 74-58
1/26 134 San Diego St Away L 77-94
1/29 14 Nevada Home L 70-87
2/2 51 Utah St Away L 65-82
2/6 172 Boise St Away W 83-72
2/9 73 Fresno St Home L 65-83
2/12 237 Air Force Home W 77-72
2/16 338 San Jose St Away 81.8%
2/19 308 Wyoming Away 67.2%
2/23 134 San Diego St Home 52.6%
2/27 14 Nevada Away 6.3%
3/2 172 Boise St Home 61.8%
3/9 210 Colorado St Away 51.8%