USC Trojans Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the USC Trojans. All of these projections for USC are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

USC Record and Rankings

Record: 19-9
Projected Final Record: 20.7-10.3

Pac-12 Conference Record: 10-5
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 11.7-6.3
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 2

USC Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 51
RPI Rank: 42
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Next 4 Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-5 4-3 6-0 7-1
Win % by Tier 0.286 0.571 1.000 0.875

Our current projections give the USC Trojans a 26.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 48.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 25.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account USC’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 15.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 5.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 6.2%
NIT #2 Seed 10.0%
NIT #3 Seed 16.0%
NIT #4 Seed 12.8%
NIT #5 Seed 2.8%
NIT #6 Seed 0.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the USC Trojans. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

USC Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 142 CS Fullerton Home W 84-42
11/13 187 N Dakota St Home W 75-65
11/19 84 Vanderbilt Away W 93-89
11/22 243 Lehigh Home W 88-63
11/26 27 Texas A&M Home L 59-75
12/2 88 SMU Away L 55-72
12/8 37 Oklahoma Los Angeles, CA L 83-85
12/14 221 Santa Clara Home W 82-59
12/17 100 UC Santa Barbara Home W 98-87
12/19 212 Princeton Home L 93-103
12/22 247 Akron Honolulu, HI W 84-53
12/23 48 MTSU Honolulu, HI W 89-84
12/25 66 New Mexico St Honolulu, HI W 77-72
12/29 69 Washington Home L 81-88
12/31 176 Washington St Home W 89-71
1/4 191 California Away W 80-62
1/7 90 Stanford Away L 76-77
1/10 95 Colorado Home W 70-58
1/14 52 Utah Home W 84-67
1/18 65 Oregon Away W 75-70
1/20 107 Oregon St Away W 74-67
1/24 90 Stanford Home W 69-64
1/28 191 California Home W 77-59
2/3 43 UCLA Away L 79-82
2/8 34 Arizona St Away L 78-80
2/10 18 Arizona Away L 67-81
2/15 65 Oregon Home W 72-70
2/17 107 Oregon St Home W 72-59
2/21 95 Colorado Away 60.5%
2/24 52 Utah Away 44.5%
3/3 43 UCLA Home 62.5%