USC Trojans Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the USC Trojans. All of these projections for USC are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

USC Record and Rankings

Record: 1-1
Projected Final Record: 18.7-11.3

Pac-12 Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 10.1-7.9
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 7

USC Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 63
RPI Rank: 74
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the USC Trojans a 11.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 52.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 36.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account USC’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.6%
NIT #2 Seed 7.6%
NIT #3 Seed 16.8%
NIT #4 Seed 14.2%
NIT #5 Seed 11.0%
NIT #6 Seed 1.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the USC Trojans. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

USC Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 309 Robert Morris Home W 83-62
11/11 30 Vanderbilt Home L 78-82
11/14 320 Stetson Home 98.6%
11/19 29 Texas Tech Neutal 40.1%
11/25 196 CS Bakersfield Home 91.4%
11/28 206 Long Beach St Home 92.6%
12/1 16 Nevada Home 39.2%
12/7 59 TCU Home 59.2%
12/15 74 Oklahoma Neutal 53.5%
12/18 285 Santa Clara Away 91.7%
12/21 274 Southern Utah Home 98.6%
12/30 229 UC Davis Home 93.4%
1/3 282 California Home 98.4%
1/6 66 Stanford Home 65.6%
1/10 85 Oregon St Away 48.5%
1/13 15 Oregon Away 13.9%
1/19 42 UCLA Home 56.9%
1/24 24 Arizona Home 51.1%
1/26 56 Arizona St Home 57.8%
1/30 55 Washington Away 36.2%
2/2 142 Washington St Away 64.5%
2/6 43 Utah Home 59.8%
2/9 108 Colorado Home 82.3%
2/13 66 Stanford Away 42.7%
2/16 282 California Away 90%
2/21 15 Oregon Home 38.5%
2/23 85 Oregon St Home 73.8%
2/28 42 UCLA Away 33.6%
3/7 43 Utah Away 36.9%
3/9 108 Colorado Away 56.7%