USC Trojans Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the USC Trojans. All of these projections for USC are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

USC Record and Rankings

Record: 9-8
Projected Final Record: 15.4-15.6

Pac-12 Conference Record: 2-2
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 8.4-9.6
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 8

USC Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 126
RPI Rank: 153
NET Rank: 109
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-5 0-1 2-1 7-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.667 0.875

Our current projections give the USC Trojans a 6.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 7.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 86.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account USC’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #15 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.2%
NIT #2 Seed 0.6%
NIT #3 Seed 1.4%
NIT #4 Seed 1.4%
NIT #5 Seed 2.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the USC Trojans. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

USC Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 283 Robert Morris Home W 83-62
11/11 106 Vanderbilt Home L 78-82
11/14 347 Stetson Home W 95-59
11/19 8 Texas Tech Neutral L 63-78
11/20 196 Missouri St Neutal W 99-80
11/25 146 CS Bakersfield Home W 90-75
11/28 180 Long Beach St Home W 75-65
12/1 20 Nevada Home L 61-73
12/7 27 TCU Neutral L 61-96
12/15 22 Oklahoma Away L 70-81
12/18 192 Santa Clara Away L 92-102
12/21 241 Southern Utah Home W 91-49
12/30 274 UC Davis Home W 73-55
1/3 226 California Home W 82-73
1/6 132 Stanford Home W 77-66
1/10 57 Oregon St Away L 74-79
1/13 81 Oregon Away L 60-81
1/19 83 UCLA Home 51.8%
1/24 44 Arizona Home 41.2%
1/26 61 Arizona St Home 46.3%
1/30 41 Washington Away 16%
2/2 215 Washington St Away 60.5%
2/6 119 Utah Home 61.5%
2/9 108 Colorado Home 58.8%
2/13 132 Stanford Away 42.7%
2/16 226 California Away 61.8%
2/21 81 Oregon Home 49.6%
2/23 57 Oregon St Home 46%
2/28 83 UCLA Away 29%
3/7 119 Utah Away 39.2%
3/9 108 Colorado Away 36.9%