USC Trojans Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the USC Trojans. All of these projections for USC are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

USC Record and Rankings

Record: 16-17
Projected Final Record: 16.0-17.0

Pac-12 Conference Record: 8-10
Projected Final Pac-12 Record: 8.0-10.0
Projected Final Rank in the Pac-12: 8

USC Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 120
RPI Rank: 155
NET Rank: 89
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-6 2-5 5-5 9-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.286 0.500 0.900

Our current projections give the USC Trojans a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 1.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 98.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account USC’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.6%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.4%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the USC Trojans. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

USC Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 267 Robert Morris Home W 83-62
11/11 161 Vanderbilt Home L 78-82
11/14 333 Stetson Home W 95-59
11/19 11 Texas Tech Neutral L 63-78
11/20 175 Missouri St Neutal W 99-80
11/25 215 CS Bakersfield Home W 90-75
11/28 210 Long Beach St Home W 75-65
12/1 28 Nevada Home L 61-73
12/7 43 TCU Neutral L 61-96
12/15 37 Oklahoma Away L 70-81
12/18 172 Santa Clara Away L 92-102
12/21 266 Southern Utah Home W 91-49
12/30 260 UC Davis Home W 73-55
1/3 230 California Home W 82-73
1/6 135 Stanford Home W 77-66
1/10 91 Oregon St Away L 74-79
1/13 57 Oregon Away L 60-81
1/19 116 UCLA Home W 80-67
1/24 108 Arizona Home W 80-57
1/26 62 Arizona St Home W 69-67
1/30 42 Washington Away L 62-75
2/2 200 Washington St Away W 93-84
2/6 96 Utah Home L 70-77
2/9 80 Colorado Home L 65-69
2/13 135 Stanford Away L 76-79
2/16 230 California Away W 89-66
2/21 57 Oregon Home W 66-49
2/23 91 Oregon St Home L 62-67
2/28 116 UCLA Away L 88-93
3/7 96 Utah Away L 74-83
3/9 80 Colorado Away L 67-78
3/13 108 Arizona Neutal W 78-65
3/14 42 Washington Neutral L 75-78