Utah State Aggies Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Utah State Aggies. All of these projections for Utah St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 12/10/2018.

Utah St Record and Rankings

Record: 8-2
Projected Final Record: 23.4-7.6

Mountain West Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 13.2-4.8
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 2

Utah St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 41
RPI Rank: 52
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 11 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-0 0-1 5-1 2-0
Win % by Tier 1.000 0.000 0.833 1.000

Our current projections give the Utah State Aggies a 46.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 38.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 15.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Utah St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 8.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 9.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 10.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 5.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 10.2%
NIT #2 Seed 10.4%
NIT #3 Seed 6.4%
NIT #4 Seed 5.0%
NIT #5 Seed 4.8%
NIT #6 Seed 1.4%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Utah State Aggies. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Utah St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 280 Montana St Away W 101-71
11/9 258 Hartford Home W 100-73
11/13 341 MS Valley St Home W 94-59
11/16 140 Utah Valley Home W 65-46
11/19 69 St Mary’s CA Neutal W 80-63
11/21 25 Arizona St Neutral L 82-87
11/28 186 Northern Iowa Home W 71-52
12/1 85 UC Irvine Away W 89-65
12/5 65 BYU Away L 80-95
12/8 184 Weber St Neutal W 76-67
12/15 340 Alabama St Home 98.8%
12/20 19 Houston Away 20.3%
12/28 No Rank Eastern Oregon Home 99.3%
1/2 7 Nevada Away 11.7%
1/5 256 Air Force Home 97.1%
1/9 75 Fresno St Home 74.8%
1/12 221 Wyoming Away 80.9%
1/16 326 San Jose St Away 92.6%
1/19 210 Colorado St Home 93%
1/26 147 New Mexico Away 62.8%
1/30 326 San Jose St Home 98.7%
2/2 153 UNLV Home 87.3%
2/5 75 Fresno St Away 48.2%
2/9 89 San Diego St Away 53.7%
2/13 221 Wyoming Home 93%
2/16 256 Air Force Away 80.9%
2/20 147 New Mexico Home 86.4%
2/23 183 Boise St Away 68.3%
2/26 89 San Diego St Home 78.7%
3/2 7 Nevada Home 38.5%
3/5 210 Colorado St Away 73.4%