Utah State Aggies Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Utah State Aggies. All of these projections for Utah St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Utah St Record and Rankings

Record: 28-6
Projected Final Record: 28.0-6.0

Mountain West Conference Record: 15-3
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 15.0-3.0
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 2

Utah St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 30
RPI Rank: 28
NET Rank: 30
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 9 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-4 3-1 7-1 14-0
Win % by Tier 0.429 0.750 0.875 1.000

Our current projections give the Utah State Aggies a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Utah St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 13.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 43.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 10.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 25.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Utah State Aggies. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Utah St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 250 Montana St Away W 101-71
11/9 197 Hartford Home W 100-73
11/13 350 MS Valley St Home W 94-59
11/16 88 Utah Valley Home W 65-46
11/19 39 St Mary’s CA Neutal W 80-63
11/21 62 Arizona St Neutral L 82-87
11/28 169 Northern Iowa Home W 71-52
12/1 70 UC Irvine Away W 89-65
12/5 90 BYU Away L 80-95
12/8 217 Weber St Neutal W 76-67
12/15 330 Alabama St Home W 86-48
12/20 9 Houston Away L 50-60
12/28 No Rank Eastern Oregon Home W 84-57
1/2 28 Nevada Away L 49-72
1/5 222 Air Force Home W 79-62
1/9 86 Fresno St Home L 77-78
1/12 315 Wyoming Away W 71-55
1/16 339 San Jose St Away W 81-63
1/19 213 Colorado St Home W 87-72
1/26 191 New Mexico Away W 68-66
1/30 339 San Jose St Home W 103-73
2/2 156 UNLV Home W 82-65
2/5 86 Fresno St Away W 82-81
2/9 100 San Diego St Away L 63-68
2/13 315 Wyoming Home W 76-59
2/16 222 Air Force Away W 76-62
2/20 191 New Mexico Home W 71-55
2/23 182 Boise St Away W 78-71
2/26 100 San Diego St Home W 70-54
3/2 28 Nevada Home W 81-76
3/5 213 Colorado St Away W 100-96
3/14 191 New Mexico Neutal W 91-83
3/15 86 Fresno St Neutal W 85-60
3/16 100 San Diego St Neutal W 64-57