Utah State Aggies Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Utah State Aggies. All of these projections for Utah St are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Utah St Record and Rankings

Record: 13-5
Projected Final Record: 22.6-8.4

Mountain West Conference Record: 3-2
Projected Final Mountain West Record: 12.6-5.4
Projected Final Rank in the Mountain West: 3

Utah St Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 56
RPI Rank: 55
NET Rank: 40
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Last 4 Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 2-2 3-1 7-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 0.750 1.000

Our current projections give the Utah State Aggies a 33.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 49.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 17.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Utah St’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 6.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 17.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 12.6%
NIT #2 Seed 17.4%
NIT #3 Seed 8.6%
NIT #4 Seed 4.0%
NIT #5 Seed 3.2%
NIT #6 Seed 3.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Utah State Aggies. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Utah St Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 250 Montana St Away W 101-71
11/9 190 Hartford Home W 100-73
11/13 346 MS Valley St Home W 94-59
11/16 103 Utah Valley Home W 65-46
11/19 64 St Mary’s CA Neutal W 80-63
11/21 61 Arizona St Neutral L 82-87
11/28 191 Northern Iowa Home W 71-52
12/1 112 UC Irvine Away W 89-65
12/5 116 BYU Away L 80-95
12/8 177 Weber St Neutal W 76-67
12/15 315 Alabama St Home W 86-48
12/20 13 Houston Away L 50-60
12/28 No Rank Eastern Oregon Home W 84-57
1/2 20 Nevada Away L 49-72
1/5 232 Air Force Home W 79-62
1/9 59 Fresno St Home L 77-78
1/12 307 Wyoming Away W 71-55
1/16 326 San Jose St Away W 81-63
1/19 212 Colorado St Home 92.2%
1/26 186 New Mexico Away 67.2%
1/30 326 San Jose St Home 98.6%
2/2 165 UNLV Home 86.6%
2/5 59 Fresno St Away 41.8%
2/9 151 San Diego St Away 59.8%
2/13 307 Wyoming Home 96.4%
2/16 232 Air Force Away 75.7%
2/20 186 New Mexico Home 88.3%
2/23 154 Boise St Away 58.2%
2/26 151 San Diego St Home 84.5%
3/2 20 Nevada Home 43.3%
3/5 212 Colorado St Away 68.3%