UTRGV Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the UTRGV. All of these projections for UTRGV are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

UTRGV Record and Rankings

Record: 19-16
Projected Final Record: 19.0-16.0

WAC Conference Record: 9-7
Projected Final WAC Record: 9.0-7.0
Projected Final Rank in the WAC: 4

UTRGV Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 162
RPI Rank: 140
NET Rank: 168
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-6 1-3 6-3 10-4
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.250 0.667 0.714

Our current projections give the UTRGV a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 100.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UTRGV’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UTRGV. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UTRGV Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank TX A&M Commerce Home W 91-84
11/9 37 Oklahoma Home L 76-91
11/12 280 TAM C. Christi Away W 76-69
11/14 187 Prairie View Home W 70-57
11/19 253 East Carolina Away L 64-69
11/21 99 Georgia Tech Away L 44-72
11/23 212 Lamar Home W 77-75
11/26 280 TAM C. Christi Home W 68-59
11/28 9 Houston Away L 53-58
12/1 147 UT Arlington Away W 76-65
12/5 296 North Dakota Home W 70-56
12/15 128 Texas St Home L 68-77
12/18 237 Rice Home L 67-75
12/22 331 McNeese St Home W 68-64
12/28 11 Texas Tech Away L 46-71
1/3 70 UC Irvine Away L 74-85
1/5 204 Cal Baptist Away W 81-74
1/10 215 CS Bakersfield Home L 69-75
1/12 123 Grand Canyon Home L 65-69
1/17 88 Utah Valley Away L 61-82
1/19 188 Seattle Away W 67-62
1/26 48 New Mexico St Home L 61-63
1/31 351 Chicago St Home W 77-46
2/2 246 Missouri KC Home W 75-63
2/7 123 Grand Canyon Away W 72-69
2/9 215 CS Bakersfield Away W 79-74
2/14 188 Seattle Home W 59-44
2/16 88 Utah Valley Home L 64-76
2/19 No Rank Wayland Home W 85-66
2/23 48 New Mexico St Away L 79-88
2/28 351 Chicago St Away W 82-77
3/2 246 Missouri KC Away W 75-70
3/7 204 Cal Baptist Home L 79-82
3/14 215 CS Bakersfield Neutal W 85-70
3/15 48 New Mexico St Neutral L 72-79