UTRGV Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the UTRGV. All of these projections for UTRGV are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

UTRGV Record and Rankings

Record: 10-11
Projected Final Record: 16.5-16.5

WAC Conference Record: 2-3
Projected Final WAC Record: 7.5-8.5
Projected Final Rank in the WAC: 5

UTRGV Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 191
RPI Rank: 178
NET Rank: 227
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-4 0-1 2-4 7-2
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.333 0.778

Our current projections give the UTRGV a 1.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 98.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UTRGV’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 1.2%
NIT #1 Seed 0.2%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UTRGV. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UTRGV Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank TX A&M Commerce Home W 91-84
11/9 29 Oklahoma Home L 76-91
11/12 261 TAM C. Christi Away W 76-69
11/14 270 Prairie View Home W 70-57
11/19 212 East Carolina Away L 64-69
11/21 89 Georgia Tech Away L 44-72
11/23 283 Lamar Home W 77-75
11/26 261 TAM C. Christi Home W 68-59
11/28 13 Houston Away L 53-58
12/1 209 UT Arlington Away W 76-65
12/5 300 North Dakota Home W 70-56
12/15 98 Texas St Home L 68-77
12/18 254 Rice Home L 67-75
12/22 320 McNeese St Home W 68-64
12/28 14 Texas Tech Away L 46-71
1/3 107 UC Irvine Away L 74-85
1/5 239 Cal Baptist Away W 81-74
1/10 152 CS Bakersfield Home L 69-75
1/12 101 Grand Canyon Home L 65-69
1/17 114 Utah Valley Away L 61-82
1/19 178 Seattle Away W 67-62
1/26 77 New Mexico St Home 32.1%
1/31 342 Chicago St Home 93%
2/2 244 Missouri KC Home 76.2%
2/7 101 Grand Canyon Away 14.1%
2/9 152 CS Bakersfield Away 27.7%
2/14 178 Seattle Home 56.5%
2/16 114 Utah Valley Home 40.2%
2/19 No Rank Wayland Home 94.4%
2/23 77 New Mexico St Away 12.5%
2/28 342 Chicago St Away 77.2%
3/2 244 Missouri KC Away 51.1%
3/7 239 Cal Baptist Home 71.8%