UTSA Roadrunners Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the UTSA Roadrunners. All of these projections for UT San Antonio are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

UT San Antonio Record and Rankings

Record: 10-7
Projected Final Record: 14.9-12.1

CUSA Conference Record: 4-0
Projected Final CUSA Record: 8.9-5.1
Projected Final Rank in the CUSA: 4

UT San Antonio Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 160
RPI Rank: 150
NET Rank: 157
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-2 1-1 1-3 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 0.250 1.000

Our current projections give the UTSA Roadrunners a 3.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 96.8% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account UT San Antonio’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.2%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the UTSA Roadrunners. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

UT San Antonio Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/7 No Rank St Edward’s Home L 76-77
11/12 22 Oklahoma Home L 67-87
11/14 74 Oklahoma St Away L 60-82
11/19 112 UC Irvine Neutral L 56-65
11/20 137 S Dakota St Neutral L 79-99
11/21 285 FL Gulf Coast Neutal W 76-65
11/26 242 Houston Bap Away W 86-82
12/1 96 Texas St Home L 68-69
12/8 No Rank Mid-Am Chr Home W 104-74
12/15 65 Arkansas Neutral L 67-79
12/17 No Rank Bethany KS Home W 101-77
12/20 280 TAM C. Christi Away W 64-50
12/29 No Rank SE Oklahoma Home W 70-67
1/3 269 UTEP Home W 75-60
1/5 269 UTEP Away W 67-63
1/10 251 Rice Home W 95-79
1/12 79 North Texas Home W 76-74
1/17 323 MTSU Away 69.9%
1/19 173 UAB Away 39.5%
1/24 260 Charlotte Home 84.7%
1/26 95 Old Dominion Home 44.5%
1/31 121 WKU Away 21.3%
2/2 110 Marshall Away 23.3%
2/7 202 Florida Intl Home 74.8%
2/9 189 FL Atlantic Home 72.3%
2/14 159 Southern Miss Away 36.9%
2/16 114 Louisiana Tech Away 24.3%