Valparaiso Crusaders Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Valparaiso Crusaders. All of these projections for Valparaiso are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Valparaiso Record and Rankings

Record: 11-7
Projected Final Record: 17.2-13.8

MVC Conference Record: 4-1
Projected Final MVC Record: 10.2-7.8
Projected Final Rank in the MVC: 3

Valparaiso Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 175
RPI Rank: 187
NET Rank: 178
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 0-3 3-3 6-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.500 0.857

Our current projections give the Valparaiso Crusaders a 6.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 6.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 87.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Valparaiso’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #16 Seed 1.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.2%
NIT #7 Seed 1.4%
NIT #8 Seed 4.4%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Valparaiso Crusaders. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Valparaiso Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 No Rank Concordia IL Home W 121-65
11/15 121 WKU Neutral L 71-83
11/16 281 Monmouth NJ Neutal W 64-53
11/18 166 Wake Forest Neutral L 63-69
11/21 325 SIUE Home W 75-70
11/24 93 West Virginia Away L 76-88
11/28 165 UNLV Away W 72-64
12/2 314 UC Riverside Home W 82-73
12/4 209 High Point Home L 53-55
12/8 252 G Washington Away W 82-79
12/17 107 Ball St Home L 61-77
12/19 98 Texas A&M Away L 49-71
12/29 No Rank Purdue Northwest Home W 97-61
1/2 172 Illinois St Home W 58-56
1/5 196 Missouri St Away W 82-66
1/8 219 Bradley Home W 61-50
1/12 148 S Illinois Away W 65-61
1/15 111 Loyola-Chicago Away L 54-71
1/19 191 Northern Iowa Home 64.1%
1/23 163 Indiana St Away 38.2%
1/26 122 Drake Home 44.5%
1/29 196 Missouri St Home 65.6%
2/2 171 Evansville Away 39.2%
2/5 172 Illinois St Away 39.5%
2/10 111 Loyola-Chicago Home 42.9%
2/13 163 Indiana St Home 57.5%
2/16 122 Drake Away 24.7%
2/20 148 S Illinois Home 52.9%
2/23 191 Northern Iowa Away 43.9%
2/27 219 Bradley Away 50%
3/2 171 Evansville Home 58.8%