VCU Rams Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the VCU Rams. All of these projections for VA Commonwealth are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

VA Commonwealth Record and Rankings

Record: 13-5
Projected Final Record: 22.7-8.3

Atlantic 10 Conference Record: 4-1
Projected Final Atlantic 10 Record: 13.7-4.3
Projected Final Rank in the Atlantic 10: 1

VA Commonwealth Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 52
RPI Rank: 31
NET Rank: 51
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 12 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 2-3 2-1 3-1 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.400 0.667 0.750 1.000

Our current projections give the VCU Rams a 58.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 36.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 5.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account VA Commonwealth’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 3.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 5.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 13.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 15.8%
NCAA #12 Seed 14.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 12.6%
NIT #2 Seed 8.6%
NIT #3 Seed 7.2%
NIT #4 Seed 4.0%
NIT #5 Seed 3.0%
NIT #6 Seed 1.2%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the VCU Rams. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

VA Commonwealth Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 173 Gardner Webb Home W 69-57
11/9 299 Hampton Home W 69-57
11/12 117 Bowling Green Home W 72-61
11/19 54 Temple Neutal W 57-51
11/20 38 St John’s Neutral L 86-87
11/24 58 Hofstra Home W 69-67
11/28 92 Old Dominion Away L 52-62
12/1 227 Iona Home W 88-59
12/5 36 Texas Away W 54-53
12/9 1 Virginia Away L 49-57
12/15 120 Col Charleston Home L 79-83
12/22 115 Wichita St Home W 70-54
12/30 169 Rider Home W 90-79
1/5 235 Fordham Away W 76-51
1/9 275 La Salle Home W 69-63
1/12 69 Davidson Away L 57-64
1/16 70 Dayton Home W 76-71
1/19 197 Massachusetts Home W 68-50
1/23 129 Rhode Island Away 60.5%
1/26 139 Duquesne Away 64.5%
2/2 137 George Mason Home 83.5%
2/6 249 G Washington Away 83.8%
2/9 195 St Bonaventure Away 74.3%
2/13 229 Richmond Home 92.2%
2/16 70 Dayton Away 46.3%
2/19 129 Rhode Island Home 81.1%
2/23 249 G Washington Home 93%
2/26 64 St Louis Home 66%
3/2 229 Richmond Away 79.7%
3/5 137 George Mason Away 61.1%
3/8 168 St Joseph’s PA Home 85.2%