VCU Rams Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the VCU Rams. All of these projections for VA Commonwealth are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 12/10/2018.

VA Commonwealth Record and Rankings

Record: 7-3
Projected Final Record: 21.9-9.1

Atlantic 10 Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Atlantic 10 Record: 12.5-5.5
Projected Final Rank in the Atlantic 10: 2

VA Commonwealth Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 80
RPI Rank: 30
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-2 1-0 0-1 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.333 1.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the VCU Rams a 26.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 44.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 29.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account VA Commonwealth’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 3.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 3.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 4.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 8.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.2%
NIT #1 Seed 5.8%
NIT #2 Seed 10.0%
NIT #3 Seed 7.8%
NIT #4 Seed 6.2%
NIT #5 Seed 8.4%
NIT #6 Seed 5.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.6%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the VCU Rams. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

VA Commonwealth Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 181 Gardner Webb Home W 69-57
11/9 300 Hampton Home W 69-57
11/12 211 Bowling Green Home W 72-61
11/19 70 Temple Neutal W 57-51
11/20 36 St John’s Neutral L 86-87
11/24 139 Hofstra Home W 69-67
11/28 116 Old Dominion Away L 52-62
12/1 265 Iona Home W 88-59
12/5 46 Texas Away W 54-53
12/9 6 Virginia Away L 49-57
12/15 105 Col Charleston Home 72.8%
12/22 120 Wichita St Home 77.7%
12/30 174 Rider Home 87.3%
1/5 235 Fordham Away 79.7%
1/9 317 La Salle Home 97.7%
1/12 54 Davidson Away 33.6%
1/16 67 Dayton Home 56.7%
1/19 146 Massachusetts Home 80.6%
1/23 121 Rhode Island Away 54%
1/26 136 Duquesne Away 57.1%
2/2 192 George Mason Home 85.9%
2/6 312 G Washington Away 84.2%
2/9 206 St Bonaventure Away 69.1%
2/13 225 Richmond Home 88.9%
2/16 67 Dayton Away 38.5%
2/19 121 Rhode Island Home 71.4%
2/23 312 G Washington Home 93%
2/26 81 St Louis Home 58.8%
3/2 225 Richmond Away 69.1%
3/5 192 George Mason Away 64.5%
3/8 126 St Joseph’s PA Home 71.8%