Vermont Catamounts Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Vermont Catamounts. All of these projections for Vermont are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Vermont Record and Rankings

Record: 14-4
Projected Final Record: 23.7-6.3

America East Conference Record: 4-0
Projected Final America East Record: 13.7-2.3
Projected Final Rank in the America East: 1

Vermont Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 80
RPI Rank: 56
NET Rank: 77
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 13 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 1-0 4-1 8-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.800 1.000

Our current projections give the Vermont Catamounts a 60.2% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 32.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 7.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Vermont’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 42.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 16.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.8%
NIT #3 Seed 1.4%
NIT #4 Seed 5.8%
NIT #5 Seed 7.4%
NIT #6 Seed 11.6%
NIT #7 Seed 5.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Vermont Catamounts. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Vermont Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 237 Boston Univ Away W 78-72
11/12 7 Kansas Away L 68-84
11/14 No Rank Lyndon St Home W 122-56
11/16 23 Louisville Away L 78-86
11/21 88 Yale Home W 79-70
11/25 150 Bucknell Home L 61-69
11/28 252 G Washington Away W 69-53
11/30 308 Towson Away W 70-64
12/3 135 George Mason Away W 72-67
12/8 156 Harvard Home W 71-65
12/16 125 Northeastern Home W 75-70
12/18 199 St Bonaventure Home W 83-76
12/21 47 Lipscomb Away L 66-91
1/2 207 Dartmouth Home W 73-59
1/5 304 Albany NY Away W 80-51
1/9 321 Maine Away W 73-49
1/12 190 Hartford Home W 81-62
1/16 345 New Hampshire Away W 73-59
1/19 336 Binghamton Home 98.5%
1/23 263 UMBC Home 92.2%
1/26 102 Stony Brook Away 47.8%
2/2 218 MA Lowell Away 66.4%
2/6 321 Maine Home 93.8%
2/9 304 Albany NY Home 93.4%
2/13 345 New Hampshire Home 98.6%
2/16 190 Hartford Away 61.8%
2/21 263 UMBC Away 71.2%
2/23 336 Binghamton Away 87.5%
3/2 102 Stony Brook Home 71%
3/5 218 MA Lowell Home 87.3%