Vermont Catamounts Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Vermont Catamounts. All of these projections for Vermont are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Vermont Record and Rankings

Record: 1-0
Projected Final Record: 23.4-6.6

America East Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final America East Record: 14.0-2.0
Projected Final Rank in the America East: 1

Vermont Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 77
RPI Rank: 5
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 11 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-0 0-0 0-0 0-0
Win % by Tier 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Our current projections give the Vermont Catamounts a 68.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 31.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Vermont’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 18.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 39.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 8.8%
NCAA #15 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.4%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 9.8%
NIT #6 Seed 21.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Vermont Catamounts. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Vermont Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/9 132 Boston Univ Away W 78-72
11/12 6 Kansas Away 8%
11/14 No Rank Lyndon St Home 98.9%
11/16 38 Louisville Away 19.6%
11/21 150 Yale Home 84%
11/25 95 Bucknell Home 64.1%
11/28 252 G Washington Away 74.8%
11/30 192 Towson Away 64.1%
12/3 207 George Mason Away 65.3%
12/8 147 Harvard Home 82.1%
12/16 94 Northeastern Home 61.5%
12/18 90 St Bonaventure Home 60.8%
12/21 170 Lipscomb Away 64.1%
1/2 245 Dartmouth Home 92%
1/5 201 Albany NY Away 69.1%
1/9 332 Maine Away 92.4%
1/12 307 Hartford Home 98.5%
1/16 340 New Hampshire Away 93.4%
1/19 347 Binghamton Home 99.1%
1/23 139 UMBC Home 85.2%
1/26 166 Stony Brook Away 62.8%
2/2 277 MA Lowell Away 82.1%
2/6 332 Maine Home 98.7%
2/9 201 Albany NY Home 90.6%
2/13 340 New Hampshire Home 98.9%
2/16 307 Hartford Away 91.9%
2/21 139 UMBC Away 61.5%
2/23 347 Binghamton Away 95.1%
3/2 166 Stony Brook Home 86.1%
3/5 277 MA Lowell Home 93.4%