Vermont Catamounts Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Vermont Catamounts. All of these projections for Vermont are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Vermont Record and Rankings

Record: 22-6
Projected Final Record: 24.7-6.3

America East Conference Record: 12-1
Projected Final America East Record: 14.7-1.3
Projected Final Rank in the America East: 1

Vermont Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 63
RPI Rank: 53
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 13 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-4 1-1 9-0 11-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 1.000 0.917

Our current projections give the Vermont Catamounts a 66.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 33.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Vermont’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 17.4%
NCAA #12 Seed 49.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 1.0%
NIT #4 Seed 6.2%
NIT #5 Seed 21.4%
NIT #6 Seed 4.6%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Vermont Catamounts. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Vermont Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/12 28 Kentucky Away L 69-73
11/17 124 Bradley Nassau, Bahamas W 65-64
11/18 232 Coastal Car Nassau, Bahamas W 80-67
11/19 119 N Kentucky Nassau, Bahamas W 66-64
11/22 No Rank ME Ft Kent Home W 90-54
11/25 213 Yale Away W 79-73
11/29 180 Richmond Away W 71-65
12/2 117 Bucknell Away L 77-81
12/5 47 Marquette Away L 81-91
12/9 104 Northeastern Away L 67-71
12/11 291 Siena Home W 81-57
12/16 56 St Bonaventure Rochester, NY L 79-81
12/21 279 Quinnipiac Home W 80-73
1/2 153 Harvard Away W 62-56
1/4 319 MA Lowell Away W 88-77
1/6 184 UMBC Home W 71-56
1/10 310 Dartmouth Away W 91-78
1/13 269 Stony Brook Home W 73-62
1/15 335 Maine Home W 83-62
1/18 286 New Hampshire Away W 67-56
1/21 216 Hartford Away W 76-53
1/24 149 Albany NY Home W 61-50
1/31 314 Binghamton Away W 68-54
2/3 184 UMBC Away W 81-53
2/8 149 Albany NY Away W 72-67
2/11 319 MA Lowell Home W 81-69
2/15 286 New Hampshire Home W 71-58
2/18 216 Hartford Home L 68-69
2/21 314 Binghamton Home 93.8%
2/24 269 Stony Brook Away 80.4%
2/27 335 Maine Away 92.1%