Virginia Cavaliers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Virginia Cavaliers. All of these projections for Virginia are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/20/2019.

Virginia Record and Rankings

Record: 16-1
Projected Final Record: 26.8-3.2

ACC Conference Record: 4-1
Projected Final ACC Record: 14.8-3.2
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 1

Virginia Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 1
RPI Rank: 3
NET Rank: 1
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 1 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 5-1 4-0 1-0 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.833 1.000 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Virginia Cavaliers a 98.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 1.2% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Virginia’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 76.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 10.6%
NCAA #3 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.6%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Virginia Cavaliers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Virginia Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 298 Towson Home W 73-42
11/11 249 G Washington Home W 76-57
11/16 344 Coppin St Home W 97-40
11/21 292 MTSU Neutal W 74-52
11/22 70 Dayton Neutal W 66-59
11/23 26 Wisconsin Neutal W 53-46
11/28 12 Maryland Away W 76-71
12/3 325 Morgan St Home W 83-45
12/9 52 VA Commonwealth Home W 57-49
12/19 91 South Carolina Away W 69-52
12/22 226 William & Mary Home W 72-40
12/31 99 Marshall Home W 100-64
1/5 27 Florida St Home W 65-52
1/9 123 Boston College Away W 83-56
1/12 44 Clemson Away W 63-43
1/15 11 Virginia Tech Home W 81-59
1/19 3 Duke Away L 70-72
1/22 164 Wake Forest Home 98.9%
1/26 82 Notre Dame Away 91.7%
1/29 33 NC State Away 76.7%
2/2 97 Miami FL Home 98.6%
2/9 3 Duke Home 69.1%
2/11 10 North Carolina Away 59.5%
2/16 82 Notre Dame Home 98.5%
2/18 11 Virginia Tech Away 60.1%
2/23 21 Louisville Away 65.3%
2/27 89 Georgia Tech Home 98.5%
3/2 65 Pittsburgh Home 97.1%
3/4 41 Syracuse Away 75.7%
3/9 21 Louisville Home 89.7%