Virginia Cavaliers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Virginia Cavaliers. All of these projections for Virginia are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

Virginia Record and Rankings

Record: 29-3
Projected Final Record: 29.0-3.0

ACC Conference Record: 16-2
Projected Final ACC Record: 16.0-2.0
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 1

Virginia Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 1
RPI Rank: 3
NET Rank: 1
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 1 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 10-3 5-0 5-0 9-0
Win % by Tier 0.769 1.000 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Virginia Cavaliers a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Virginia’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 94.4%
NCAA #2 Seed 3.4%
NCAA #3 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Virginia Cavaliers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Virginia Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 284 Towson Home W 73-42
11/11 276 G Washington Home W 76-57
11/16 340 Coppin St Home W 97-40
11/21 235 MTSU Neutal W 74-52
11/22 81 Dayton Neutal W 66-59
11/23 19 Wisconsin Neutal W 53-46
11/28 26 Maryland Away W 76-71
12/3 343 Morgan St Home W 83-45
12/9 47 VA Commonwealth Home W 57-49
12/19 65 South Carolina Away W 69-52
12/22 196 William & Mary Home W 72-40
12/31 142 Marshall Home W 100-64
1/5 10 Florida St Home W 65-52
1/9 119 Boston College Away W 83-56
1/12 31 Clemson Away W 63-43
1/15 17 Virginia Tech Home W 81-59
1/19 2 Duke Away L 70-72
1/22 151 Wake Forest Home W 68-45
1/26 103 Notre Dame Away W 82-55
1/29 33 NC State Away W 66-65
2/2 84 Miami FL Home W 56-46
2/9 2 Duke Home L 71-81
2/11 4 North Carolina Away W 69-61
2/16 103 Notre Dame Home W 60-54
2/18 17 Virginia Tech Away W 64-58
2/23 25 Louisville Away W 64-52
2/27 99 Georgia Tech Home W 81-51
3/2 121 Pittsburgh Home W 73-49
3/4 36 Syracuse Away W 79-53
3/9 25 Louisville Home W 73-68
3/14 33 NC State Neutal W 76-56
3/15 10 Florida St Neutral L 59-69