Virginia Cavaliers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Virginia Cavaliers. All of these projections for Virginia are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Virginia Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 21.5-6.5

ACC Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final ACC Record: 12.4-5.6
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 3

Virginia Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 4
RPI Rank: 134
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 3 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 1-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Virginia Cavaliers a 98.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 1.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Virginia’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 26.6%
NCAA #2 Seed 56.4%
NCAA #3 Seed 8.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.2%
NIT #3 Seed 0.6%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Virginia Cavaliers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Virginia Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 192 Towson Home W 73-42
11/11 252 G Washington Home W 76-57
11/16 349 Coppin St Home 100%
11/21 34 MTSU Neutal 78%
11/28 37 Maryland Away 61.8%
12/3 333 Morgan St Home 99.7%
12/9 144 VA Commonwealth Home 98.5%
12/19 112 South Carolina Away 80.2%
12/22 182 William & Mary Home 98.7%
12/31 64 Marshall Home 92.6%
1/5 10 Florida St Home 76.7%
1/9 69 Boston College Away 72.5%
1/12 21 Clemson Away 59.2%
1/15 22 Virginia Tech Home 84.5%
1/19 1 Duke Away 16.2%
1/22 103 Wake Forest Home 93.8%
1/26 41 Notre Dame Away 62.8%
1/29 25 NC State Away 59.5%
2/2 23 Miami FL Home 85.9%
2/9 1 Duke Home 42.9%
2/11 5 North Carolina Away 39.2%
2/16 41 Notre Dame Home 88.3%
2/18 22 Virginia Tech Away 57.8%
2/23 38 Louisville Away 62.8%
2/27 96 Georgia Tech Home 93.4%
3/2 177 Pittsburgh Home 98.7%
3/4 26 Syracuse Away 59.8%
3/9 38 Louisville Home 88.3%