Virginia Cavaliers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Virginia Cavaliers. All of these projections for Virginia are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

Virginia Record and Rankings

Record: 24-2
Projected Final Record: 27.4-2.6

ACC Conference Record: 13-1
Projected Final ACC Record: 16.4-1.6
Projected Final Rank in the ACC: 1

Virginia Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 1
RPI Rank: 1
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 1 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 8-1 6-1 5-0 5-0
Win % by Tier 0.889 0.857 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Virginia Cavaliers a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Virginia’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 99.6%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Virginia Cavaliers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Virginia Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 92 UNC Greensboro Home W 60-48
11/13 183 Austin Peay Home W 93-49
11/17 128 VA Commonwealth Away W 76-67
11/19 220 Monmouth NJ Home W 73-53
11/23 84 Vanderbilt Brooklyn, NY W 68-42
11/24 19 Rhode Island Brooklyn, NY W 70-55
11/27 93 Wisconsin Home W 49-37
12/2 243 Lehigh Home W 75-54
12/5 16 West Virginia Away L 61-68
12/16 94 Davidson Home W 80-60
12/19 276 Savannah St Home W 78-47
12/22 277 Hampton Home W 82-48
12/30 82 Boston College Home W 59-58
1/3 32 Virginia Tech Away W 78-52
1/6 10 North Carolina Home W 61-49
1/9 49 Syracuse Home W 68-61
1/14 44 NC State Home W 68-51
1/18 122 Georgia Tech Away W 64-48
1/21 106 Wake Forest Away W 59-49
1/23 12 Clemson Home W 61-36
1/27 6 Duke Away W 65-63
1/31 41 Louisville Home W 74-64
2/3 49 Syracuse Away W 59-44
2/7 31 Florida St Away W 59-55
2/10 32 Virginia Tech Home L 60-61
2/13 45 Miami FL Away W 59-50
2/21 122 Georgia Tech Home 94.4%
2/24 209 Pittsburgh Away 92.6%
3/1 41 Louisville Away 61.8%
3/3 54 Notre Dame Home 91.1%