WAC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest Western Athletic Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the WAC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

WAC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 New Mexico St 23 4 26.5 4.5 11 1 14.5 1.5
2 Grand Canyon 15 10 18.7 11.3 8 4 10.7 5.3
3 Utah Valley 17 8 21.6 9.4 6 4 10.6 5.4
4 UTRGV 16 13 18.4 14.6 7 5 9.4 6.6
5 CS Bakersfield 15 10 16.5 12.5 7 5 8.5 7.5
6 Missouri KC 10 16 11.9 19.1 5 6 6.9 9.1
7 Cal Baptist 14 10 15.7 14.3 5 5 6.7 9.3
8 Seattle 13 12 16.4 14.6 1 9 4.4 11.6
9 Chicago St 3 23 3.4 27.6 0 11 0.4 15.6

Projected WAC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the Western Athletic Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
New Mexico St 12 3.678

Projected WAC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the Western Athletic Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
New Mexico St 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Grand Canyon 0% 41% 44% 11% 100%
Utah Valley 0% 56% 26% 12% 100%
UTRGV 0% 3% 24% 52% 100%
CS Bakersfield 0% 0% 6% 20% 100%
Missouri KC 0% 0% 0% 3% 100%
Cal Baptist 0% 0% 0% 2% 100%
Seattle 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Chicago St 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

WAC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the Western Athletic Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The WAC Basketball Conference Tournament is an eight team tournament that is a mainstay at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Orleans Arena (Las Vegas, NV)
Quarterfinals: March 14th, 2019
Semifinals: March 15th, 2019
Finals: March 16th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Semis Finals To Win
1
New Mexico St
82.7%
62.8%
42%
2
Grand Canyon
76%
43.6%
23.1%
3
Utah Valley
74.7%
42.3%
19.6%
4
UTRGV
57.1%
17.1%
6.6%
5
CS Bakersfield
39.4%
11%
3.2%
6
Missouri KC
26.9%
7.5%
1.4%
7
Cal Baptist
23.5%
7.8%
1.6%
8
Seattle
19.7%
7.9%
2.5%
9
Chicago St
0%
0%
0%

WAC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Cal Baptist 13.7% Grand Canyon 86.4% Grand Canyon wins by 11
2/21 Chicago St 1.3% Utah Valley 98.7% Utah Valley wins by 23
2/21 Missouri KC 32.1% Seattle 68% Seattle wins by 6
2/23 UTRGV 13.9% New Mexico St 86.1% New Mexico St wins by 11
2/23 Cal Baptist 29% CS Bakersfield 71% CS Bakersfield wins by 7
2/23 Missouri KC 11.7% Utah Valley 88.3% Utah Valley wins by 12
2/23 Chicago St 6.3% Seattle 93.8% Seattle wins by 17
2/26 Utah Valley 61.8% Seattle 38.2% Utah Valley wins by 4
2/28 Seattle 42.7% Cal Baptist 57.3% Cal Baptist wins by 3
2/28 New Mexico St 77.2% Missouri KC 22.8% New Mexico St wins by 8
2/28 UTRGV 90.8% Chicago St 9.2% UTRGV wins by 13
3/2 CS Bakersfield 17.4% Grand Canyon 82.6% Grand Canyon wins by 10
3/2 Utah Valley 63.4% Cal Baptist 36.6% Utah Valley wins by 5
3/2 New Mexico St 93.4% Chicago St 6.6% New Mexico St wins by 17
3/2 UTRGV 55.9% Missouri KC 44.1% UTRGV wins by 2
3/7 Cal Baptist 21.3% UTRGV 78.7% UTRGV wins by 8
3/7 CS Bakersfield 42.7% Seattle 57.3% Seattle wins by 3
3/7 Grand Canyon 37.2% Utah Valley 62.8% Utah Valley wins by 5

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC