Wagner Seahawks Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Wagner Seahawks. All of these projections for Wagner are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

Wagner Record and Rankings

Record: 20-7
Projected Final Record: 21.2-7.8

NEC Conference Record: 13-3
Projected Final NEC Record: 14.2-3.8
Projected Final Rank in the NEC: 1

Wagner Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 151
RPI Rank: 112
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 16 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-3 0-1 3-0 15-3
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.833

Our current projections give the Wagner Seahawks a 51.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 45.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 3.2% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Wagner’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #14 Seed 12.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 32.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 6.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 23.4%
NIT #8 Seed 22.4%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Wagner Seahawks. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Wagner Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/11 261 NJIT Away W 60-49
11/13 38 Missouri Away L 55-99
11/18 332 American Univ Home W 71-70
11/21 No Rank Staten Island Home W 107-64
11/26 216 Hartford Away W 72-50
12/1 228 Fairfield Home W 78-76
12/5 319 MA Lowell Home W 90-72
12/10 No Rank Mercy Home W 75-41
12/16 108 Rider Away L 84-90
12/20 36 Seton Hall Away L 68-89
12/23 143 Dayton Away L 67-79
12/29 249 Mt St Mary’s Home W 76-57
12/31 275 St Francis NY Away L 75-82
1/4 324 Sacred Heart Home W 69-63
1/6 278 F Dickinson Home W 73-65
1/11 343 Bryant Away W 71-62
1/13 274 Long Island Away L 67-69
1/18 208 St Francis PA Home W 73-64
1/20 241 Robert Morris Home W 62-49
1/26 208 St Francis PA Away W 91-61
1/28 241 Robert Morris Away W 77-64
2/1 290 Central Conn Home W 72-59
2/3 275 St Francis NY Home W 79-61
2/8 343 Bryant Home W 96-76
2/11 278 F Dickinson Away L 69-76
2/15 324 Sacred Heart Away W 99-84
2/17 274 Long Island Home W 78-74
2/22 290 Central Conn Away 64.5%
2/24 249 Mt St Mary’s Away 58.8%