WCC Basketball Projections 2018


These are the latest West Coast Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the WCC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2018.

WCC Projected Conference Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Gonzaga 25 4 26.4 4.6 15 1 16.4 1.6
2 St Mary’s CA 25 4 26.9 4.1 14 2 15.9 2.1
3 BYU 21 8 22.1 8.9 10 6 11.1 6.9
4 Pacific 14 15 15.1 15.9 9 7 10.1 7.9
5 San Francisco 16 13 17.1 13.9 8 8 9.1 8.9
6 Santa Clara 11 17 11.7 18.3 8 8 8.7 9.3
7 San Diego 17 11 17.6 12.4 8 8 8.6 9.4
8 Portland 10 19 10.7 20.3 4 12 4.7 13.3
9 Loy Marymount 8 19 8.8 20.2 3 13 3.8 14.2
10 Pepperdine 4 24 4.6 25.4 1 15 1.6 16.4

Projected WCC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the West Coast Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Gonzaga 5 7.5
St Mary’s CA 11 5.617

WCC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the West Coast Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. Another caveat is that this simulation is based on the projected final seed of each WCC team. The West Coast Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament is held on a neutral court and follows the rules of a standard ten team tournament.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Orleans Arena (Las Vegas, NV)
First Round: March 2nd, 2018
Quarterfinals: March 3rd, 2018
Semifinals: March 5th, 2018
Finals: March 6th, 2018

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Gonzaga
100%
96.6%
89.2%
66.2%
2
St Mary’s CA
100%
89.1%
70.8%
25.2%
3
BYU
100%
86.8%
25.7%
6.2%
4
Pacific
100%
51.7%
5.2%
1.1%
5
San Francisco
100%
48.3%
4.9%
1.2%
6
Santa Clara
100%
13.2%
1.4%
0%
7
San Diego
84.4%
10.2%
2%
0%
8
Portland
54.8%
1.1%
0.2%
0%
9
Loy Marymount
45.2%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
10
Pepperdine
15.6%
0.7%
0.1%
0%

WCC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/22 San Francisco 43.5% Pacific 56.5% Pacific wins by 2
2/22 BYU 76.7% Portland 23.3% BYU wins by 8
2/22 Gonzaga 80.9% San Diego 19.1% Gonzaga wins by 9
2/22 Loy Marymount 37.6% Santa Clara 62.5% Santa Clara wins by 4
2/22 Pepperdine 1.5% St Mary’s CA 98.5% St Mary’s CA wins by 21
2/24 Gonzaga 64.1% BYU 35.9% Gonzaga wins by 5
2/24 Pacific 55.9% Loy Marymount 44.1% Pacific wins by 2
2/24 Portland 45.6% Pepperdine 54.4% Pepperdine wins by 2
2/24 San Diego 37.9% San Francisco 62.1% San Francisco wins by 4
2/24 Santa Clara 5.6% St Mary’s CA 94.4% St Mary’s CA wins by 17

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC