WCC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest West Coast Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the WCC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 12/10/2018.

WCC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Gonzaga 9 1 27.6 3.4 0 0 14.1 1.9
2 San Francisco 8 1 23.1 6.9 0 0 10.8 5.2
3 San Diego 8 2 20 10 0 0 9.3 6.7
4 St Mary’s CA 6 4 19 12 0 0 9.2 6.8
5 Loy Marymount 9 1 21.6 8.4 0 0 9.2 6.8
6 BYU 7 3 18.1 11.9 0 0 9 7
7 Pacific 7 4 15.5 15.5 0 0 6.2 9.8
8 Pepperdine 6 4 13.3 16.7 0 0 5.4 10.6
9 Portland 6 5 12.2 18.8 0 0 4 12
10 Santa Clara 4 6 8.6 21.4 0 0 2.8 13.2

Projected WCC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the West Coast Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Gonzaga 1 12.415
San Francisco 11 4.909

Projected WCC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the West Coast Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Gonzaga 88% 7% 4% 1% 100%
San Francisco 6% 50% 20% 12% 100%
San Diego 2% 14% 16% 16% 100%
St Mary’s CA 2% 10% 18% 24% 100%
Loy Marymount 1% 8% 16% 27% 100%
BYU 1% 11% 24% 16% 100%
Pacific 0% 0% 1% 3% 84%
Pepperdine 0% 0% 1% 1% 67%
Portland 0% 0% 0% 0% 36%
Santa Clara 0% 0% 0% 0% 13%

WCC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the West Coast Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The West Coast Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament recently changed their tournament structure to make it easier for the top-seeded teams to advance/win the tournament. The top two teams now get a double-bye into the Semifinals.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Orleans Arena (Las Vegas, NV)
First Round: March 7th, 2019
Second Round: March 8th, 2019
Quarterfinals: March 9th, 2019
Semifinals: March 11th, 2019

Coming Soon!

WCC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
1/3 St Mary’s CA 26.2% San Francisco 73.8% San Francisco wins by 7
1/3 Loy Marymount 65.3% Pepperdine 34.7% Loy Marymount wins by 5
1/3 San Diego 87.5% Santa Clara 12.5% San Diego wins by 12
1/3 BYU 62.8% Pacific 37.2% BYU wins by 5
1/5 Santa Clara 0.7% Gonzaga 99.3% Gonzaga wins by 28
1/5 Portland 7.8% Loy Marymount 92.2% Loy Marymount wins by 15
1/5 Pacific 13.4% San Diego 86.6% San Diego wins by 12
1/5 San Francisco 79.7% Pepperdine 20.3% San Francisco wins by 9
1/5 BYU 38.5% St Mary’s CA 61.5% St Mary’s CA wins by 4
1/10 Pacific 1.3% Gonzaga 98.7% Gonzaga wins by 22
1/10 Pepperdine 58.5% Santa Clara 41.5% Pepperdine wins by 3
1/10 Portland 7% BYU 93% BYU wins by 16
1/12 Gonzaga 70.3% San Francisco 29.7% Gonzaga wins by 7
1/12 St Mary’s CA 42.7% Loy Marymount 57.3% Loy Marymount wins by 3
1/12 Pacific 56.9% Portland 43.1% Pacific wins by 3
1/12 Pepperdine 8.3% San Diego 91.7% San Diego wins by 13
1/12 Santa Clara 4.9% BYU 95.1% BYU wins by 18
1/17 San Diego 79.2% Portland 20.8% San Diego wins by 8

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC