WCC Basketball Projections 2018-2019


These are the latest West Coast Conference projections based on our NCAA College Basketball Ratings. These projections for the WCC are based on actual results of previous games and our predicted results for games upcoming in the future. The rank (or seed) for each team is only based upon their projected finish in the conference. Our latest update to these projections was done on 2/21/2019.

WCC Projected Standings

Rank Team All Games Conference Games
Actual Projected Actual Projected
Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses Wins Losses
1 Gonzaga 25 2 28.7 2.3 12 0 15.7 0.3
2 BYU 18 10 19.4 11.6 10 3 11.4 4.6
3 San Francisco 20 6 22.8 7.2 8 4 10.8 5.2
4 St Mary’s CA 17 10 19.5 11.5 8 4 10.5 5.5
5 Santa Clara 14 13 15.2 14.8 6 7 7.2 8.8
6 San Diego 16 11 17.8 13.2 5 7 6.8 9.2
7 Pepperdine 12 15 13.5 16.5 5 8 6.5 9.5
8 Loy Marymount 17 10 18.4 11.6 5 8 6.4 9.6
9 Pacific 13 14 14.2 16.8 3 9 4.2 11.8
10 Portland 7 20 7.6 23.4 0 12 0.6 15.4

Projected WCC Tournament Bids

Our full list of NCAA Tournament and NIT Tournament projections can be found here. The below list contains our latest NCAA Tournament projections for teams within the West Coast Conference. The “Bracket Rating” is based on a proprietary formula that projects a team’s bracket seeding by the NCAA Tournament committee.

Team Seed Bracket Rating
Gonzaga 1 13.678
San Francisco Next 4 Out 3.702

Projected WCC Regular Season Finish

Based on 100 simulations, this is the projected place where each team finishes in the West Coast Conference standings.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Top 8
Gonzaga 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%
BYU 0% 63% 26% 11% 100%
San Francisco 0% 24% 27% 47% 100%
St Mary’s CA 0% 13% 47% 39% 100%
Santa Clara 0% 0% 0% 1% 100%
San Diego 0% 0% 0% 2% 97%
Pepperdine 0% 0% 0% 0% 96%
Loy Marymount 0% 0% 0% 0% 97%
Pacific 0% 0% 0% 0% 10%
Portland 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

WCC Conference Tournament Predictions

Below are the odds to advance to each stage of the West Coast Conference Tournament. The table below is based on 1,000 simulations. The West Coast Conference Men’s Basketball Tournament recently changed their tournament structure to make it easier for the top-seeded teams to advance/win the tournament. The top two teams now get a double-bye into the Semifinals.

Regular Season Champion: TBD
Tournament Site: Orleans Arena (Las Vegas, NV)
First Round: March 7th, 2019
Second Round: March 8th, 2019
Third Round: March 9th, 2019
Semifinals: March 11th, 2019

Seed Team To Advance To
Qtrs Semis Finals To Win
1
Gonzaga
100%
100%
95.3%
88.9%
2
BYU
100%
92.4%
41.5%
3%
3
San Francisco
100%
87.7%
20.1%
3.5%
4
St Mary’s CA
100%
86.3%
37.6%
4.3%
5
Santa Clara
40.2%
3.5%
0%
0%
6
San Diego
65%
16.8%
3.8%
0.2%
7
Pepperdine
40.8%
5.1%
0.9%
0.1%
8
Loy Marymount
39.4%
7.1%
0.8%
0%
9
Pacific
12.5%
1.1%
0%
0%
10
Portland
2.1%
0%
0%
0%

WCC Upcoming Conference Games with Projections

Every projection takes into account the ability of each team, home court advantage, and other factors that make for accurate predictions.

Date Away Team Away Prob to Win Home Team Home Prob to Win Game Projection
2/21 Portland 6.6% San Diego 93.4% San Diego wins by 16
2/21 Pepperdine 1.2% Gonzaga 98.8% Gonzaga wins by 23
2/21 St Mary’s CA 72.5% Pacific 27.5% St Mary’s CA wins by 7
2/21 San Francisco 43.5% BYU 56.5% BYU wins by 2
2/23 Loy Marymount 52.2% Pacific 47.8% Loy Marymount wins by 1
2/23 Portland 11.4% Pepperdine 88.6% Pepperdine wins by 12
2/23 San Francisco 68% Santa Clara 32.1% San Francisco wins by 6
2/23 St Mary’s CA 56.9% San Diego 43.1% St Mary’s CA wins by 3
2/23 BYU 4.9% Gonzaga 95.1% Gonzaga wins by 18
2/28 Portland 1.5% St Mary’s CA 98.5% St Mary’s CA wins by 21
2/28 San Diego 19.6% San Francisco 80.4% San Francisco wins by 9
2/28 Gonzaga 93.1% Pacific 6.9% Gonzaga wins by 16
2/28 Santa Clara 26.2% Loy Marymount 73.8% Loy Marymount wins by 7
3/2 Gonzaga 80.6% St Mary’s CA 19.4% Gonzaga wins by 9
3/2 Loy Marymount 15.5% San Francisco 84.5% San Francisco wins by 11
3/2 Pacific 36.2% Pepperdine 63.8% Pepperdine wins by 5
3/2 Santa Clara 64.5% Portland 35.5% Santa Clara wins by 5
3/2 San Diego 26.2% BYU 73.8% BYU wins by 7

Projections in Other Conferences

For other conferences, please see below.

AAC ACC America East Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun Big 12 Big East Big Sky
Big South Big Ten Big West Colonial
Conference USA Horizon Ivy League MAAC
MAC MEAC MWC MVC
NEC OVC Pac-12 Patriot
Southern SEC Summit Southland
Southwestern Sun Belt WAC WCC