Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. All of these projections for WKU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/21/2018.

WKU Record and Rankings

Record: 20-7
Projected Final Record: 22.5-8.5

CUSA Conference Record: 12-2
Projected Final CUSA Record: 14.5-3.5
Projected Final Rank in the CUSA: 3

WKU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 70
RPI Rank: 57
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-2 3-1 5-4 10-0
Win % by Tier 0.333 0.750 0.556 1.000

Our current projections give the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 37.4% chance at an NIT bid and a 62.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account WKU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 2.2%
NIT #3 Seed 8.2%
NIT #4 Seed 16.6%
NIT #5 Seed 9.4%
NIT #6 Seed 1.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

WKU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 116 Missouri St Home L 80-85
11/15 No Rank KY Wesleyan Home W 83-53
11/19 172 Nicholls St Home W 100-86
11/22 2 Villanova Nassau, Bahamas L 58-66
11/23 7 Purdue Nassau, Bahamas W 77-73
11/24 88 SMU Nassau, Bahamas W 63-61
11/29 283 E Kentucky Home W 83-51
12/2 133 Wright St Home W 78-60
12/10 210 Ohio Away L 84-89
12/13 93 Wisconsin Away L 80-81
12/16 170 Indiana St Home W 81-65
12/19 85 Belmont Home L 72-75
12/22 183 Austin Peay Away W 72-55
12/28 152 Louisiana Tech Home W 69-68
12/30 224 Southern Miss Home W 82-66
1/6 113 Marshall Away W 112-87
1/11 73 Old Dominion Away W 75-68
1/13 326 Charlotte Away W 73-63
1/18 148 UAB Home W 77-69
1/20 48 MTSU Home L 62-66
1/27 113 Marshall Home W 85-74
2/1 280 UTEP Away W 72-60
2/3 182 UT San Antonio Away L 63-74
2/8 250 FL Atlantic Home W 75-63
2/10 258 Florida Intl Home W 83-76
2/15 195 North Texas Away W 102-94
2/17 330 Rice Away W 85-66
2/22 326 Charlotte Home 97.7%
2/24 73 Old Dominion Home 61.8%
3/1 48 MTSU Away 31.7%
3/3 148 UAB Away 55.5%