Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. All of these projections for WKU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/19/2018.

WKU Record and Rankings

Record: 25-10
Projected Final Record: 25.2-10.8

CUSA Conference Record: 16-5
Projected Final CUSA Record: 16.0-5.0
Projected Final Rank in the CUSA: 3

WKU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 72
RPI Rank: 39
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-2 3-3 9-5 10-0
Win % by Tier 0.333 0.500 0.643 1.000

Our current projections give the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 83.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 17.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account WKU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.4%
NIT #2 Seed 1.8%
NIT #3 Seed 8.0%
NIT #4 Seed 58.2%
NIT #5 Seed 13.6%
NIT #6 Seed 1.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

WKU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 137 Missouri St Home L 80-85
11/15 No Rank KY Wesleyan Home W 83-53
11/19 183 Nicholls St Home W 100-86
11/22 2 Villanova Nassau, Bahamas L 58-66
11/23 6 Purdue Nassau, Bahamas W 77-73
11/24 98 SMU Nassau, Bahamas W 63-61
11/29 279 E Kentucky Home W 83-51
12/2 128 Wright St Home W 78-60
12/10 195 Ohio Away L 84-89
12/13 75 Wisconsin Away L 80-81
12/16 162 Indiana St Home W 81-65
12/19 88 Belmont Home L 72-75
12/22 184 Austin Peay Away W 72-55
12/28 178 Louisiana Tech Home W 69-68
12/30 207 Southern Miss Home W 82-66
1/6 96 Marshall Away W 112-87
1/11 78 Old Dominion Away W 75-68
1/13 321 Charlotte Away W 73-63
1/18 130 UAB Home W 77-69
1/20 65 MTSU Home L 62-66
1/27 96 Marshall Home W 85-74
2/1 256 UTEP Away W 72-60
2/3 177 UT San Antonio Away L 63-74
2/8 259 FL Atlantic Home W 75-63
2/10 251 Florida Intl Home W 83-76
2/15 211 North Texas Away W 102-94
2/17 314 Rice Away W 85-66
2/22 321 Charlotte Home W 93-55
2/24 78 Old Dominion Home W 88-66
3/1 65 MTSU Away L 64-82
3/3 130 UAB Away L 73-101
3/8 130 UAB Frisco, TX W 98-70
3/9 78 Old Dominion Frisco, TX W 57-49
3/10 96 Marshall Frisco, TX L 66-67
3/13 71 Boston College Home W 79-62
3/19 39 USC Away 22.8%