Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. All of these projections for WKU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

WKU Record and Rankings

Record: 8-8
Projected Final Record: 15.6-11.4

CUSA Conference Record: 1-2
Projected Final CUSA Record: 8.6-5.4
Projected Final Rank in the CUSA: 5

WKU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 121
RPI Rank: 112
NET Rank: 119
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-4 2-2 3-1 3-1
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.500 0.750 0.750

Our current projections give the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers a 18.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 3.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 77.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account WKU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #13 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #15 Seed 8.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.4%
NIT #1 Seed 0.2%
NIT #2 Seed 0.4%
NIT #3 Seed 1.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.4%
NIT #5 Seed 0.6%
NIT #6 Seed 0.8%
NIT #7 Seed 0.2%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

WKU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 41 Washington Away L 55-73
11/10 322 TN Martin Home W 86-71
11/15 175 Valparaiso Neutal W 83-71
11/16 93 West Virginia Neutal W 63-57
11/18 48 UCF Neutral L 62-78
11/24 163 Indiana St Away L 54-63
12/1 332 Tennessee St Home W 88-74
12/5 196 Missouri St Away L 78-84
12/8 65 Arkansas Away W 78-77
12/16 183 Troy Home L 81-87
12/19 68 Belmont Away L 74-80
12/22 64 St Mary’s CA Home W 71-68
12/29 30 Wisconsin Home W 83-76
1/3 260 Charlotte Away W 68-50
1/5 95 Old Dominion Away L 66-69
1/12 110 Marshall Away L 69-70
1/17 202 Florida Intl Home 85.2%
1/19 189 FL Atlantic Home 84.5%
1/21 110 Marshall Home 62.8%
1/24 159 Southern Miss Away 50.4%
1/26 114 Louisiana Tech Away 39.5%
1/31 160 UT San Antonio Home 78.7%
2/2 269 UTEP Home 90.8%
2/7 251 Rice Away 66.4%
2/9 79 North Texas Away 32.1%
2/14 323 MTSU Home 93%
2/16 173 UAB Home 79.2%