Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. All of these projections for WKU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

WKU Record and Rankings

Record: 1-1
Projected Final Record: 15.7-9.3

CUSA Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final CUSA Record: 9.3-4.7
Projected Final Rank in the CUSA: 4

WKU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 73
RPI Rank: 218
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-1 0-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers a 6.8% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 33.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 59.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account WKU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 2.2%
NIT #2 Seed 1.4%
NIT #3 Seed 6.4%
NIT #4 Seed 11.0%
NIT #5 Seed 11.8%
NIT #6 Seed 0.8%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

WKU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 55 Washington Away L 55-73
11/10 313 TN Martin Home W 86-71
11/15 172 Valparaiso Neutal 73.8%
11/24 195 Indiana St Away 68%
12/1 258 Tennessee St Home 93%
12/5 151 Missouri St Away 59.2%
12/8 58 Arkansas Away 25.7%
12/16 194 Troy Home 87.8%
12/19 101 Belmont Away 47.8%
12/22 35 St Mary’s CA Home 44.1%
12/29 39 Wisconsin Home 43.5%
1/3 289 Charlotte Away 86.6%
1/5 78 Old Dominion Away 40.9%
1/12 64 Marshall Away 38.2%
1/17 184 Florida Intl Home 88.6%
1/19 180 FL Atlantic Home 89.7%
1/21 64 Marshall Home 60.8%
1/24 129 Southern Miss Away 60.1%
1/26 81 Louisiana Tech Away 41.2%
1/31 141 UT San Antonio Home 85.7%
2/2 217 UTEP Home 92.2%
2/7 268 Rice Away 81.8%
2/9 110 North Texas Away 51.8%
2/14 34 MTSU Home 44.5%
2/16 86 UAB Home 65.6%