Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. All of these projections for WKU are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 3/17/2019.

WKU Record and Rankings

Record: 20-14
Projected Final Record: 20.0-14.0

CUSA Conference Record: 11-7
Projected Final CUSA Record: 11.0-7.0
Projected Final Rank in the CUSA: 2

WKU Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 105
RPI Rank: 81
NET Rank: 111
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 1-5 4-3 8-4 7-2
Win % by Tier 0.167 0.571 0.667 0.778

Our current projections give the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers a 0.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 1.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 98.4% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account WKU’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.2%
NIT #4 Seed 0.4%
NIT #5 Seed 0.2%
NIT #6 Seed 0.4%
NIT #7 Seed 0.4%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

WKU Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 42 Washington Away L 55-73
11/10 283 TN Martin Home W 86-71
11/15 209 Valparaiso Neutal W 83-71
11/16 77 West Virginia Neutal W 63-57
11/18 35 UCF Neutral L 62-78
11/24 189 Indiana St Away L 54-63
12/1 314 Tennessee St Home W 88-74
12/5 175 Missouri St Away L 78-84
12/8 63 Arkansas Away W 78-77
12/16 243 Troy Home L 81-87
12/19 55 Belmont Away L 74-80
12/22 39 St Mary’s CA Home W 71-68
12/29 19 Wisconsin Home W 83-76
1/3 268 Charlotte Away W 68-50
1/5 87 Old Dominion Away L 66-69
1/12 142 Marshall Away L 69-70
1/17 173 Florida Intl Home L 76-77
1/19 177 FL Atlantic Home W 72-66
1/21 142 Marshall Home W 68-59
1/24 114 Southern Miss Away W 66-63
1/26 137 Louisiana Tech Away L 50-62
1/31 144 UT San Antonio Home W 96-88
2/2 302 UTEP Home W 76-59
2/7 237 Rice Away W 92-85
2/9 164 North Texas Away W 62-59
2/14 235 MTSU Home W 71-63
2/16 139 UAB Home L 60-68
2/23 87 Old Dominion Away L 63-67
2/28 139 UAB Away W 73-67
3/3 114 Southern Miss Home W 76-71
3/6 144 UT San Antonio Home L 76-81
3/14 164 North Texas Neutal W 67-51
3/15 114 Southern Miss Neutal W 70-59
3/16 87 Old Dominion Neutral L 56-62