Wisconsin Badgers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Wisconsin Badgers. All of these projections for Wisconsin are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Wisconsin Record and Rankings

Record: 11-6
Projected Final Record: 18.3-12.7

Big Ten Conference Record: 3-3
Projected Final Big Ten Record: 10.3-9.7
Projected Final Rank in the Big Ten: 7

Wisconsin Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 30
RPI Rank: 39
NET Rank: 22
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 8 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 3-4 1-2 3-0 4-0
Win % by Tier 0.429 0.333 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Wisconsin Badgers a 86.4% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 8.6% chance at an NIT bid and a 5.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Wisconsin’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 2.4%
NCAA #3 Seed 5.0%
NCAA #4 Seed 10.2%
NCAA #5 Seed 9.2%
NCAA #6 Seed 10.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 10.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 13.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 10.6%
NCAA #10 Seed 8.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 4.2%
NCAA #12 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.2%
NIT #1 Seed 3.4%
NIT #2 Seed 1.2%
NIT #3 Seed 1.4%
NIT #4 Seed 1.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.6%
NIT #6 Seed 1.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Wisconsin Badgers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Wisconsin Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 348 Coppin St Home W 85-63
11/13 76 Xavier Away W 77-68
11/17 242 Houston Bap Home W 96-59
11/21 132 Stanford Neutal W 62-46
11/22 22 Oklahoma Neutal W 78-58
11/23 1 Virginia Neutral L 46-53
11/27 36 NC State Home W 79-75
11/30 25 Iowa Away W 72-66
12/3 113 Rutgers Home W 69-64
12/8 17 Marquette Away L 69-74
12/13 341 Savannah St Home W 101-60
12/22 311 Grambling Home W 84-53
12/29 121 WKU Away L 76-83
1/3 45 Minnesota Home L 52-59
1/6 86 Penn St Away W 71-52
1/11 19 Purdue Home L 80-84
1/14 15 Maryland Away L 60-64
1/19 2 Michigan Home 35.5%
1/23 123 Illinois Away 62.8%
1/26 60 Northwestern Home 82.6%
1/29 14 Nebraska Away 26.2%
2/1 15 Maryland Home 56.3%
2/6 45 Minnesota Away 50.4%
2/9 2 Michigan Away 11.9%
2/12 4 Michigan St Home 37.6%
2/18 123 Illinois Home 86.8%
2/23 60 Northwestern Away 55.7%
2/26 31 Indiana Away 40.9%
3/2 86 Penn St Home 83.3%
3/7 25 Iowa Home 61.5%
3/10 33 Ohio St Away 40.9%