Xavier Musketeers Projections 2019


These are the latest projections for the Xavier Musketeers. All of these projections for Xavier are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 1/17/2019.

Xavier Record and Rankings

Record: 11-7
Projected Final Record: 16.1-14.9

Big East Conference Record: 3-2
Projected Final Big East Record: 8.1-9.9
Projected Final Rank in the Big East: 6

Xavier Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 76
RPI Rank: 72
NET Rank: 81
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: Out

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-4 1-2 4-1 6-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 0.333 0.800 1.000

Our current projections give the Xavier Musketeers a 14.6% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 32.8% chance at an NIT bid and a 52.6% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Xavier’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #2 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #3 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #4 Seed 1.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.6%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.8%
NCAA #8 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #9 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #10 Seed 1.8%
NCAA #11 Seed 2.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 1.2%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.4%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.2%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 4.0%
NIT #2 Seed 3.8%
NIT #3 Seed 4.8%
NIT #4 Seed 4.6%
NIT #5 Seed 7.8%
NIT #6 Seed 7.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.8%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Xavier Musketeers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Xavier Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 201 IUPUI Home W 82-69
11/10 171 Evansville Home W 91-85
11/13 30 Wisconsin Home L 68-77
11/19 16 Auburn Neutral L 79-88
11/20 151 San Diego St Neutral L 74-79
11/21 123 Illinois Neutal W 83-74
11/28 187 Miami OH Home W 82-55
12/1 223 Oakland Home W 73-63
12/5 147 Ohio Home W 82-61
12/8 35 Cincinnati Away L 47-62
12/15 240 E Kentucky Home W 95-77
12/18 87 Missouri Away L 56-71
12/21 181 Detroit Home W 69-55
12/29 100 DePaul Away W 74-65
1/2 38 Seton Hall Home L 70-80
1/6 17 Marquette Away L 52-70
1/9 85 Georgetown Home W 81-75
1/13 49 Butler Home W 70-69
1/18 24 Villanova Away 14.8%
1/23 77 Providence Home 60.8%
1/26 17 Marquette Home 39.2%
1/31 85 Georgetown Away 41.2%
2/3 54 Creighton Away 32.8%
2/9 100 DePaul Home 71.4%
2/13 54 Creighton Home 56.3%
2/16 77 Providence Away 38.2%
2/20 38 Seton Hall Away 23.8%
2/24 24 Villanova Home 40.9%
2/28 34 St John’s Away 19.6%
3/5 49 Butler Away 25.7%
3/9 34 St John’s Home 45.2%