Xavier Musketeers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Xavier Musketeers. All of these projections for Xavier are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 2/19/2018.

Xavier Record and Rankings

Record: 24-4
Projected Final Record: 26.2-4.8

Big East Conference Record: 12-3
Projected Final Big East Record: 14.2-3.8
Projected Final Rank in the Big East: 1

Xavier Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 5
RPI Rank: 3
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 1 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 7-4 8-0 5-0 4-0
Win % by Tier 0.636 1.000 1.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Xavier Musketeers a 100.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 0.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Xavier’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 38.6%
NCAA #2 Seed 39.2%
NCAA #3 Seed 15.8%
NCAA #4 Seed 5.0%
NCAA #5 Seed 1.4%
NCAA #6 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #7 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #8 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #9 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #10 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #11 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 0.0%
NIT #2 Seed 0.0%
NIT #3 Seed 0.0%
NIT #4 Seed 0.0%
NIT #5 Seed 0.0%
NIT #6 Seed 0.0%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.0%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Xavier Musketeers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Xavier Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/10 306 Morehead St Home W 101-49
11/13 108 Rider Home W 101-75
11/16 93 Wisconsin Away W 80-70
11/20 277 Hampton Home W 96-60
11/23 181 G Washington Las Vegas, NV W 83-64
11/24 34 Arizona St Las Vegas, NV L 86-102
11/28 30 Baylor Home W 76-63
12/2 3 Cincinnati Home W 89-76
12/6 196 Kent Home W 96-70
12/9 95 Colorado Home W 96-69
12/16 67 ETSU Home W 68-66
12/19 113 Marshall Home W 81-77
12/22 144 Northern Iowa Away W 77-67
12/27 47 Marquette Away W 91-87
12/30 102 DePaul Home W 77-72
1/2 29 Butler Home W 86-79
1/6 55 Providence Away L 72-81
1/10 2 Villanova Away L 65-89
1/13 24 Creighton Home W 92-70
1/17 64 St John’s Home W 88-82
1/20 36 Seton Hall Away W 73-64
1/24 47 Marquette Home W 89-70
1/30 64 St John’s Away W 73-68
2/3 77 Georgetown Home W 96-91
2/6 29 Butler Away W 98-93
2/10 24 Creighton Away W 72-71
2/14 36 Seton Hall Home W 102-90
2/17 2 Villanova Home L 79-95
2/21 77 Georgetown Away 63.4%
2/28 55 Providence Home 86.1%
3/3 102 DePaul Away 69.9%