Xavier Musketeers Projections 2018


These are the latest projections for the Xavier Musketeers. All of these projections for Xavier are based on our proprietary ratings and data that is known to be predictive. This page was last updated on 11/12/2018.

Xavier Record and Rankings

Record: 2-0
Projected Final Record: 15.1-13.9

Big East Conference Record: 0-0
Projected Final Big East Record: 7.2-10.8
Projected Final Rank in the Big East: 8

Xavier Bracket Projections and Tournament Resume

DRatings Overall Rank: 50
RPI Rank: 47
Current NCAA Bracket Projection: 9 Seed

Starting in the 2017-2018 season, the NCAA tournament committee will begin to use the “tier system” to help determine tournament bids. In prior years, the four buckets were based on wins and losses against the RPI 1-50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201+. Now, the tier system accounts for the home, neutral and away site variable.

Tier 1: vs. RPI 1-30 (home), vs. RPI 1-50 (neutral site), vs. RPI 1-75 (away)
Tier 2: vs. RPI 31-75 (home), vs. RPI 51-100 (neutral site), vs. RPI 76-135 (away)
Tier 3: vs. RPI 76-160 (home), vs. RPI 101-200 (neutral site), vs. RPI 136-240 (away)
Tier 4: vs. RPI 161+ (home), vs. RPI 201+ (neutral site), vs. RPI 240+ (away)

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Record 0-0 1-0 0-0 1-0
Win % by Tier 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000

Our current projections give the Xavier Musketeers a 93.0% chance to make the NCAA Tournament as conference champions or through an at-large bid. We project them to have a 7.0% chance at an NIT bid and a 0.0% chance of missing both the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Note that the predictions below take into account Xavier’s future schedule and prior results and are not necessarily based on where the team currently stands. The seed probabilities are based on a result from five hundred simulations. These simulations use all the rules for NCAA seeding, i.e. conference champions get an auto bid to the NCAA Tournament, regular season champions get an auto bid to the NIT, etc.

Seed Probability
NCAA #1 Seed 2.0%
NCAA #2 Seed 2.8%
NCAA #3 Seed 2.2%
NCAA #4 Seed 6.6%
NCAA #5 Seed 6.0%
NCAA #6 Seed 12.2%
NCAA #7 Seed 18.4%
NCAA #8 Seed 20.8%
NCAA #9 Seed 11.8%
NCAA #10 Seed 6.6%
NCAA #11 Seed 3.6%
NCAA #12 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #13 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #14 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #15 Seed 0.0%
NCAA #16 Seed 0.0%
NIT #1 Seed 1.8%
NIT #2 Seed 0.6%
NIT #3 Seed 0.8%
NIT #4 Seed 0.2%
NIT #5 Seed 1.6%
NIT #6 Seed 1.8%
NIT #7 Seed 0.0%
NIT #8 Seed 0.2%

Below is the current schedule and future game projections for the Xavier Musketeers. If a game has not been played yet, then the “result” of the game is replaced with the “win probability”.

Xavier Schedule and Game Projections

Date Oppo Rank Opponent Location Result Score
11/6 257 IUPUI Home W 82-69
11/10 189 Evansville Home W 91-85
11/13 39 Wisconsin Home 43.5%
11/19 19 Auburn Neutal 25.7%
11/28 185 Miami OH Home 85%
12/1 219 Oakland Home 90.6%
12/5 156 Ohio Home 82.3%
12/8 52 Cincinnati Away 33.2%
12/15 278 E Kentucky Home 93.8%
12/18 89 Missouri Away 39.9%
12/21 331 Detroit Home 98.7%
12/29 98 DePaul Away 43.5%
1/2 27 Seton Hall Home 42.5%
1/6 31 Marquette Away 18.9%
1/9 124 Georgetown Home 81.1%
1/13 28 Butler Home 42.9%
1/18 2 Villanova Away 6.3%
1/23 71 Providence Home 58.2%
1/26 31 Marquette Home 44.3%
1/31 124 Georgetown Away 55.7%
2/3 53 Creighton Away 27.7%
2/9 98 DePaul Home 67.6%
2/13 53 Creighton Home 52.6%
2/16 71 Providence Away 35.5%
2/20 27 Seton Hall Away 16.5%
2/24 2 Villanova Home 18.6%
2/28 72 St John’s Away 35.5%
3/5 28 Butler Away 17%
3/9 72 St John’s Home 58.2%