Spain La Liga Season Simulation


Spain La LigaSpain’s La Liga has been dominated by Real Madrid and Barcelona over the last decade and this year should be no different. To open the season, we give Real Madrid a 69.1% chance of winning the league and Barcelona a 29.2% chance of winning the league. Atletico Madrid rounds out the top 3 with a 1.6% chance of winning the league and we only give a 0.1% chance to Sevilla.

Currently, Spain has UEFA’s highest team coefficient and thus gets 4 teams into Champions League and 2 teams into Europa league. These places are determined based on the final standings in the La Liga regular season.

Below, we simulated the season 5,000 times. For our individual game projections, see: La Liga Game Predictions. Also, see our simulations on the current seasons of Champions League and Europa League.

Updates

November 15th, 2017: Barcelona is off to a sizzling start accumulating 31 points in their first eleven games. With this early hot start, they have jumped from a 29.2% chance to win the league to a 79.5% chance.

August 15th, 2017: Our first simulation of the season.

Original Posting (for the 2017/2018 season): 8/15/2017
Last simulation was done on 11/15/2017.

Spain La Liga Season Prediction – Wins, Losses, Points

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Barcelona
10
0
1
31
29.3
3.4
5.3
93.1
Real Madrid
7
2
2
23
26.8
5.2
6
86.4
Atl. Madrid
6
0
5
23
20.6
6.3
11.1
72.8
Valencia
8
0
3
27
19.9
8.7
9.4
69.2
Sevilla
6
4
1
19
17.4
13.1
7.5
59.7
Villarreal
6
3
2
20
16.1
13.1
8.9
57.1
Real Sociedad
5
4
2
17
15.8
13.7
8.4
56
Leganes
5
4
2
17
13.7
15.4
9
50
Celta Vigo
4
5
2
14
13.8
15.8
8.4
49.7
Espanyol
3
4
4
13
12.4
14.5
11.1
48.4
Girona
4
4
3
15
12.8
15.3
9.8
48.4
Getafe
3
4
4
13
12.5
14.7
10.9
48.3
Ath Bilbao
3
6
2
11
13.1
16.3
8.6
47.8
Betis
5
4
2
17
12.5
16.7
8.8
46.3
Levante
2
3
6
12
9.4
15.9
12.7
40.9
Alaves
2
9
0
6
10.6
20.4
7
38.9
Dep. La Coruna
3
6
2
11
9.9
19.8
8.3
38
Eibar
2
7
2
8
9.4
19.5
9
37.4
Malaga
1
9
1
4
8.2
21.9
7.9
32.4
Las Palmas
2
9
0
6
8.5
23.1
6.4
32

Spain La Liga Season Prediction – Probability to win Title, Relegation

Probability to Win/Advance/Be Demoted
Team Win League Champs Lg Europa Lg Relegation
Barcelona
79.5%
100%
0%
0%
Real Madrid
19.8%
99.8%
0.2%
0%
Atl. Madrid
0.4%
85.8%
11.8%
0%
Valencia
0.3%
70.7%
22.9%
0%
Sevilla
0%
18.2%
39.8%
0.1%
Villarreal
0%
10.6%
34.5%
0.1%
Real Sociedad
0%
7.6%
32.5%
0.3%
Leganes
0%
1.3%
11.5%
1.8%
Celta Vigo
0%
1.3%
10.2%
2.5%
Espanyol
0%
0.8%
8.4%
4.2%
Girona
0%
1.4%
7.3%
3.7%
Getafe
0%
1.3%
8.7%
3.6%
Ath Bilbao
0%
0.5%
6.4%
4%
Betis
0%
0.6%
3.6%
4.2%
Levante
0%
0.1%
1.2%
20.4%
Alaves
0%
0%
0.4%
32.1%
Dep. La Coruna
0%
0%
0.4%
35.8%
Eibar
0%
0%
0.2%
42.3%
Malaga
0%
0%
0%
71%
Las Palmas
0%
0%
0%
73.9%