The 2017-2018 Champions League season runs from the end of June in 2017 to the early summer of 2018. We recently have added data to account for every league in Europe, so we can give predictions for every single Champions League game.
We programmed all the rules of the Champions League and simulated every pair of games 5,000 times. The UEFA Champions League uses the Away goals rule, so our simulations are based upon these standards. In our simulations, we also offer the probabilities for method of victory within each two leg grouping. Also note that if a team wins by away goals in extra time then we set their method of victory as “Away Goals”.
To set the standard for our simulations, we use the ratings from our European Football Rankings page. You can read more about the methodology of these rankings here, but essentially, we take into account the scores of all prior games to give teams a rating. It is important to note that these ratings are adjusted based on whether the game is played at home or away. For all of our individual game predictions, go here.
We will continue to update this page throughout the qualification, group stage, and playoff process.
Original Posting: 6/24/2017
UEFA Champions League Simulation – Qualification – First Round
The Champions League first qualifying round consists of the ten champions that come from the ten associations at the bottom of the UEFA standings. The first leg of games took place on June 27th and 28th, 2017 and the second leg of games took place on July 4th and 5th, 2017.
| # |
Team |
Advanced |
To Advance After Leg 1 |
|
Method of Victory |
|
To Advance Before Leg 1 |
| Score Diff |
Away Goals |
Extra Time |
Shootout |
| 1 |
Alashkert  |
✔ |
n/a |
|
67.5% |
4.8% |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
74.9% |
FC Santa Coloma  |
|
n/a |
|
17.4% |
4.2% |
2.2% |
1.3% |
|
25.1% |
| 2 |
Hibernians  |
✔ |
n/a |
|
20.2% |
4.5% |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
26.2% |
Infonet Tallinn  |
|
n/a |
|
66.5% |
3.9% |
2.5% |
0.9% |
|
73.8% |
| 3 |
La Fiorita  |
|
n/a |
|
1.6% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
2.4% |
Linfield  |
✔ |
n/a |
|
95.9% |
0.8% |
0.8% |
0.1% |
|
97.6% |
| 4 |
Europa FC  |
|
n/a |
|
6.3% |
2% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
|
9.2% |
TNS  |
✔ |
n/a |
|
86.5% |
2.8% |
1.3% |
0.2% |
|
90.8% |
| 5 |
Trepca 89  |
|
n/a |
|
56.6% |
5.1% |
1.9% |
0.8% |
|
64.4% |
Vikingur  |
✔ |
n/a |
|
27.5% |
6% |
1.1% |
1% |
|
35.6% |
UEFA Champions League – Qualification – Second Round
The second qualifying round consists of the five winners from Round 1 and the 29 champions of the UEFA leagues that are ranked 16 to 45 (with the exception of Liechtenstein). The first leg of this round was played on the 11th and 12th of July and the second leg was played on the 18th and 19th of July.
| # |
Team |
Advanced |
To Advance After Leg 1 |
|
Method of Victory |
|
To Advance Before Leg 1 |
| Score Diff |
Away Goals |
Extra Time |
Shootout |
| 1 |
Qarabag  |
✔ |
100 |
|
99.9% |
0% |
0.1% |
0% |
|
88.7% |
Samtredia  |
|
0% |
|
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
11.3% |
| 2 |
FC Copenhagen  |
✔ |
99% |
|
97.2% |
1.1% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
81.2% |
Zilina  |
|
1% |
|
0.7% |
0.1% |
0% |
0.2% |
|
18.8% |
| 3 |
Hibernians |
|
0% |
|
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
0.8% |
Salzburg  |
✔ |
100% |
|
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
99.2% |
| 4 |
Buducnost  |
|
4.1% |
|
1.9% |
0% |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
22% |
| Partizan |
✔ |
95.9% |
|
91.2% |
2.7% |
1% |
1% |
|
78% |
| 5 |
Rijeka  |
✔ |
94.1% |
|
88.2% |
3.8% |
1% |
1.1% |
|
76.1% |
| TNS |
|
5.9% |
|
4.3% |
0% |
0.9% |
0.7% |
|
23.9% |
| 6 |
FC Astana  |
✔ |
87.2% |
|
84.4% |
0% |
2.3% |
0.5% |
|
75.6% |
Spartaks  |
|
12.8% |
|
5% |
6.4% |
0.9% |
0.5% |
|
24.4% |
| 7 |
APOEL  |
✔ |
52.5% |
|
33.9% |
13.9% |
1.5% |
3.2% |
|
28.8% |
Dudelange  |
|
47.5% |
|
39.5% |
0% |
5.3% |
2.7% |
|
71.2% |
| 8 |
H. Beer Sheva  |
✔ |
80.7% |
|
75.9% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1% |
|
80.9% |
Honved  |
|
19.3% |
|
7.5% |
9.8% |
1% |
1% |
|
19.1% |
| 9 |
Malmo FF  |
✔ |
47.6% |
|
35.2% |
6.5% |
2.3% |
3.6% |
|
67.2% |
Vardar  |
|
52.4% |
|
33.6% |
11.2% |
2.7% |
4.9% |
|
32.8% |
| 10 |
Kukesi  |
|
29.6% |
|
20.6% |
0% |
5% |
4% |
|
48.9% |
Sheriff Tiraspol  |
✔ |
70.4% |
|
52.8% |
9.7% |
3.2% |
4.7% |
|
51.1% |
| 11 |
Maribor  |
✔ |
74.7% |
|
58.5% |
8.6% |
3.9% |
3.7% |
|
67.2% |
Zrinjski  |
|
25.3% |
|
14.9% |
5.6% |
1.3% |
3.5% |
|
32.8% |
| 12 |
Alashkert |
|
30.1% |
|
18.1% |
8.3% |
1.5% |
2.2% |
|
16.6% |
BATE  |
✔ |
69.9% |
|
57.5% |
6.6% |
4.1% |
1.7% |
|
83.4% |
| 13 |
Legia  |
✔ |
99.6% |
|
99.3% |
0% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
81% |
Mariehamn  |
|
0.4% |
|
0.3% |
0.1% |
0% |
0% |
|
19% |
| 14 |
Ludogorets  |
✔ |
66.4% |
|
50.8% |
10.5% |
3.7% |
1.4% |
|
85% |
Zalgiris  |
|
33.6% |
|
26% |
3.8% |
2% |
1.8% |
|
15% |
| 15 |
Dundalk  |
|
23.1% |
|
13.2% |
6.5% |
1.4% |
2% |
|
28.7% |
Rosenborg  |
✔ |
76.9% |
|
66.9% |
4.3% |
3.5% |
2.2% |
|
71.3% |
| 16 |
Hafnarfjordur  |
✔ |
75.1% |
|
62.4% |
7.4% |
3.9% |
1.4% |
|
90.4% |
| Vikingur |
|
24.9% |
|
16.3% |
5.8% |
1.2% |
1.6% |
|
9.6% |
| 17 |
Celtic  |
✔ |
98.9% |
|
98.5% |
0% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
|
87.5% |
| Linfield |
|
1.1% |
|
0.2% |
0.8% |
0% |
0.1% |
|
12.5% |
UEFA Champions League – Qualification – Third Round
The third qualifying round consists of the seventeen winners from Round 2, the three champions from associations ranked 13 through 15, nine runners-up from associations ranked 7 through 15 and the second runner-up from the association ranked 6. The first leg of this round was played on the 25th and 26th of July and the second leg was played on the 1st and 2nd of August.
| # |
Team |
Advanced |
To Advance After Leg 1 |
|
Method of Victory |
|
To Advance Before Leg 1 |
| Score Diff |
Away Goals |
Extra Time |
Shootout |
| 1 |
Qarabag |
✔ |
67.5 |
|
42.6% |
18.9% |
3.2% |
2.8% |
|
73.5% |
| Sheriff Tiraspol |
|
32.5% |
|
26.5% |
0% |
2.9% |
3.1% |
|
26.5% |
| 2 |
BATE |
|
17.6% |
|
13.3% |
0% |
2% |
2.3% |
|
29.5% |
Slavia Prague  |
✔ |
82.4% |
|
67.9% |
9.7% |
2.3% |
2.5% |
|
70.5% |
| 3 |
AEK Athens FC  |
|
2.2% |
|
0.9% |
0.8% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
26.3% |
CSKA Moscow  |
✔ |
97.8% |
|
96.2% |
0% |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
73.7% |
| 4 |
FCSB  |
✔ |
24.4% |
|
22.3% |
0.4% |
0.6% |
1.1% |
|
43.3% |
| Plzen |
|
75.6% |
|
51.6% |
21.1% |
1.7% |
1.2% |
|
56.7% |
| 5 |
FC Copenhagen |
✔ |
60.7% |
|
51.9% |
0% |
6.1% |
2.7% |
|
86% |
| Vardar |
|
39.3% |
|
24.8% |
10.9% |
0.9% |
2.7% |
|
14% |
| 6 |
Olympiakos Piraeus |
✔ |
97.2% |
|
94.3% |
2.3% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
|
66.9% |
| Partizan |
|
2.8% |
|
1.9% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
33.1% |
| 7 |
FC Astana |
✔ |
71.1% |
|
68.1% |
1.6% |
0.4% |
1% |
|
34.4% |
| Legia |
|
28.9% |
|
14.3% |
11.9% |
1.7% |
1% |
|
65.6% |
| 8 |
Dyn. Kiev  |
|
89.8% |
|
87.5% |
0.8% |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
76.6% |
Young Boys  |
✔ |
10.2% |
|
4.3% |
5% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
|
23.4% |
| 9 |
Rijeka |
✔ |
45.1% |
|
32.9% |
7.2% |
2.9% |
2.1% |
|
28.8% |
| Salzburg |
|
54.9% |
|
40.2% |
7.3% |
3.6% |
3.8% |
|
71.2% |
| 10 |
H. Beer Sheva |
✔ |
84.6% |
|
76.4% |
5% |
1.4% |
1.8% |
|
51% |
| Ludogorets |
|
15.4% |
|
10.5% |
0% |
2.8% |
2.1% |
|
49% |
| 11 |
APOEL |
✔ |
45.2% |
|
38.4% |
0% |
3.8% |
3% |
|
67% |
| FC Viitorul |
|
54.8% |
|
33.8% |
15.1% |
2.5% |
3.4% |
|
33% |
| 12 |
Hafnarfjordur |
|
27.2% |
|
21.1% |
0% |
4% |
2.1% |
|
41.9% |
| Maribor |
✔ |
72.8% |
|
55.2% |
12.5% |
1.8% |
3.3% |
|
58.1% |
| 13 |
Celtic |
✔ |
56.5% |
|
35.5% |
18.3% |
1.2% |
1.5% |
|
65.3% |
| Rosenborg |
|
43.5% |
|
39.1% |
0% |
1.7% |
2.7% |
|
34.7% |
| 14 |
Ajax  |
|
68.2% |
|
51.7% |
9.3% |
4.4% |
2.8% |
|
56.6% |
Nice  |
✔ |
31.8% |
|
21.5% |
5.5% |
1.7% |
3.1% |
|
43.4% |
| 15 |
Basaksehir  |
✔ |
68.2% |
|
39.7% |
28.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
41.2% |
Club Brugge KV  |
|
31.8% |
|
31.3% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
|
58.8% |
UEFA Champions League – Qualification – Playoff Round
The playoff round consists of the fifteen winners from Round 3, two third place teams from associations ranked 4 and 5, and the fourth place teams from the associations ranked 1 through 3. The first leg of this round was played on the 15th and 16th of August and the second leg will be played on the 22nd and 23rd of August.
| # |
Team |
To Advance After Leg 1 |
|
Method of Victory |
|
To Advance Before Leg 1 |
| Score Diff |
Away Goals |
Extra Time |
Shootout |
| 1 |
FC Copenhagen |
44.7% |
|
37.5% |
0% |
4.1% |
3.1% |
|
71.3% |
| Qarabag |
55.3% |
|
38.2% |
12.1% |
1.6% |
3.4% |
|
28.7% |
| 2 |
APOEL |
83.4% |
|
73.5% |
6% |
1.8% |
2.1% |
|
46.9% |
| Slavia Prague |
16.6% |
|
11.6% |
0% |
2.6% |
2.4% |
|
53.1% |
| 3 |
Hoffenheim  |
14.1% |
|
8.9% |
3.4% |
0.7% |
1.1% |
|
46.1% |
Liverpool  |
85.9% |
|
77.7% |
4.6% |
2.4% |
1.2% |
|
53.9% |
| 4 |
FCSB |
38.1% |
|
32.6% |
0% |
2.6% |
2.9% |
|
28.9% |
Sporting  |
61.9% |
|
35% |
20.9% |
3.3% |
2.7% |
|
71.1% |
| 5 |
CSKA Moscow |
90.2% |
|
87.3% |
0% |
2.2% |
0.7% |
|
75.1% |
| Young Boys |
9.8% |
|
2.9% |
6.5% |
0% |
0.4% |
|
24.9% |
| 6 |
Basaksehir |
4.5% |
|
2.5% |
1.3% |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
16.7% |
Sevilla  |
95.5% |
|
91.3% |
3% |
0.8% |
0.4% |
|
83.3% |
| 7 |
Celtic |
100% |
|
99.9% |
0% |
0.1% |
0% |
|
78.8% |
| FC Astana |
0% |
|
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
21.2% |
| 8 |
H. Beer Sheva |
74.1% |
|
68.4% |
2.3% |
2.1% |
1.3% |
|
68.7% |
| Maribor |
25.9% |
|
10.9% |
11.8% |
1.8% |
1.4% |
|
31.3% |
| 9 |
Napoli  |
94% |
|
86.3% |
4% |
2% |
1.7% |
|
70.3% |
| Nice |
6% |
|
4% |
0% |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
29.7% |
| 10 |
Olympiakos Piraeus |
63.4% |
|
56.4% |
3% |
2.2% |
1.8% |
|
58.7% |
| Rijeka |
36.6% |
|
19.9% |
12.7% |
2.5% |
1.5% |
|
41.3% |
UEFA Champions League – Group Stage
The Group stage ran from September 12th, 2017 through December 6th, 2017. The following tables have been updated after the first two of six games have been played.
Group A Projections
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Ties |
Points |
To Win Group |
2nd in Group |
| Manchester United |
4.4 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
14.1 |
90.5% |
9% |
| CSKA Moscow |
2.7 |
2.4 |
0.9 |
8.9 |
7.1% |
59.8% |
| Basel |
2 |
3 |
0.9 |
7.1 |
2.2% |
27.3% |
| Benfica |
1.1 |
4 |
0.9 |
4.2 |
0.2% |
3.9% |
Group B Projections
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Ties |
Points |
To Win Group |
2nd in Group |
| Paris SG |
4.1 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
13.2 |
59.2% |
40% |
| Bayern Munich |
3.9 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
12.3 |
40.3% |
55.2% |
| Celtic |
1.7 |
3.7 |
0.7 |
5.6 |
0.4% |
3.9% |
| Anderlecht |
0.8 |
4.3 |
0.9 |
3.4 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
Group C Projections
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Ties |
Points |
To Win Group |
2nd in Group |
| Chelsea |
4.3 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
13.8 |
85.3% |
12.6% |
| AS Roma |
2.3 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
8.9 |
9.8% |
44.1% |
| Atl. Madrid |
2.1 |
2 |
1.9 |
8.3 |
4.9% |
41.9% |
| Qarabag |
0.5 |
4.7 |
0.8 |
2.3 |
0% |
1.4% |
Group D Projections
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Ties |
Points |
To Win Group |
2nd in Group |
| Barcelona |
4.6 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
14.5 |
85.7% |
14.9% |
| Juventus |
3.4 |
1.7 |
0.9 |
11.1 |
13.7% |
73.5% |
| Sporting |
1.9 |
3.3 |
0.8 |
6.5 |
0.6% |
11.1% |
| Olympiakos Piraeus |
0.5 |
4.7 |
0.7 |
2.3 |
0% |
0.5% |
Group E Projections
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Ties |
Points |
To Win Group |
2nd in Group |
| Sevilla |
3.4 |
0.7 |
1.8 |
12.1 |
65.7% |
29.5% |
| Liverpool |
2.6 |
0.7 |
2.7 |
10.6 |
32.7% |
61.3% |
| Spartak Moscow |
1 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
5.7 |
1.5% |
7.5% |
| Maribor |
0.5 |
3.8 |
1.7 |
3.1 |
0.2% |
1.7% |
Group F Projections
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Ties |
Points |
To Win Group |
2nd in Group |
| Manchester City |
4 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
12.7 |
69.8% |
22.4% |
| Napoli |
3.1 |
2.1 |
0.8 |
10 |
20.8% |
41.2% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk |
2.8 |
2.4 |
0.9 |
9.1 |
9.3% |
35.3% |
| Feyenoord |
0.6 |
4.7 |
0.7 |
2.5 |
0% |
1.1% |
Group G Projections
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Ties |
Points |
To Win Group |
2nd in Group |
| Besiktas |
3.1 |
1.9 |
1 |
10.3 |
52.9% |
28.5% |
| FC Porto |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.1 |
8.5 |
23.1% |
32.1% |
| Monaco |
1.8 |
2.1 |
2 |
7.5 |
16% |
21.8% |
| RB Leipzig |
1.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
6.6 |
8% |
17.5% |
Group H Projections
| Team |
Wins |
Losses |
Ties |
Points |
To Win Group |
2nd in Group |
| Real Madrid |
4.8 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
15.1 |
90% |
10.6% |
| Tottenham |
3.3 |
2 |
0.7 |
10.5 |
9.5% |
75.3% |
| Dortmund |
2.1 |
3.2 |
0.7 |
7.1 |
0.5% |
13.7% |
| APOEL |
0.4 |
4.9 |
0.6 |
1.9 |
0% |
0.4% |
UEFA Champions League – Round of 16
The two stage Round of 16 will be played from February 13th, 2018 through March 14th, 2018.
| # |
Team |
To Advance |
|
Method of Victory |
| Score Diff |
Away Goals |
Extra Time |
Shootout |
| 1 |
Basel  |
12% |
|
9.6% |
1.8% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Manchester City  |
88% |
|
83.1% |
3% |
1.3% |
0.6% |
| 2 |
Juventus  |
56.9% |
|
47.7% |
5.5% |
1.7% |
2% |
| Tottenham |
43.1% |
|
34.5% |
4.8% |
2.3% |
1.5% |
| 3 |
FC Porto  |
37.9% |
|
28.5% |
7.2% |
0.8% |
1.4% |
| Liverpool |
62.1% |
|
54.7% |
4.1% |
2.1% |
1.2% |
| 4 |
Paris SG  |
37.6% |
|
28.9% |
5.7% |
2% |
1% |
Real Madrid  |
62.4% |
|
52.8% |
6.3% |
2.4% |
0.9% |
| 5 |
Bayern Munich  |
85.6% |
|
79.3% |
4.2% |
1.3% |
0.8% |
Besiktas  |
14.4% |
|
10.1% |
2.6% |
1.2% |
0.5% |
| 6 |
Barcelona |
69% |
|
60.4% |
4.8% |
2.9% |
0.9% |
| Chelsea |
31% |
|
23.1% |
6.1% |
0.9% |
0.9% |
| 7 |
Manchester United |
73.3% |
|
66.5% |
4.4% |
1.8% |
0.6% |
| Sevilla |
26.7% |
|
19.1% |
6.1% |
0.5% |
1% |
| 8 |
AS Roma |
67.5% |
|
59% |
4.1% |
3% |
1.4% |
Shakhtar Donetsk  |
32.5% |
|
25.5% |
4.6% |
0.6% |
1.8% |
UEFA Champions League – Quarterfinals
The two stage Quarterfinals will be played from April 3rd, 2018 through April 11th, 2018.
| # |
Team |
To Advance |
|
Method of Victory |
| Score Diff |
Away Goals |
Extra Time |
Shootout |
| 1 |
Juventus |
33.5% |
|
24.5% |
7% |
1.2% |
0.8% |
| Real Madrid |
66.5% |
|
58.5% |
4.3% |
2.9% |
0.8% |
| 2 |
Bayern Munich |
91.7% |
|
88.1% |
2.5% |
0.9% |
0.2% |
| Sevilla |
8.3% |
|
5.2% |
2.2% |
0.7% |
0.2% |
| 3 |
AS Roma |
20.5% |
|
14.5% |
4.1% |
0.8% |
1.1% |
| Barcelona |
79.5% |
|
75.1% |
3.2% |
0.9% |
0.3% |
| 4 |
Liverpool |
37.7% |
|
28.7% |
7% |
1.2% |
0.8% |
| Manchester City |
62.3% |
|
53.7% |
5.2% |
2.2% |
1.2% |
UEFA Champions League – Semifinals
The two stage Semifinals will be played during the last week of April and first week of May.
| # |
Team |
To Advance |
|
Method of Victory |
| Score Diff |
Away Goals |
Extra Time |
Shootout |
| 1 |
AS Roma |
35.6% |
|
26.9% |
5.3% |
2% |
1.4% |
| Liverpool |
64.4% |
|
55.6% |
5.8% |
1.6% |
1.4% |
| 2 |
Bayern Munich |
42.1% |
|
34.1% |
6.2% |
1% |
0.8% |
| Real Madrid |
57.9% |
|
49.6% |
4.5% |
3.4% |
0.4% |
UEFA Champions League – Finals
The Champions League Final is set for May 26th, 2018 at NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev.
| Date |
Away |
Home |
Odds to Win |
To Advance |
Score Proj |
Total Goals |
| 5/26 |
Liverpool |
Real Madrid |
Real Madrid to win: 50.4% |
Real Madrid to win: 64.1% |
2.03 |
3.28 |
| Liverpool to win: 22% |
Liverpool to win: 35.8% |
1.24 |
| Odds to Draw: 27.6% |
— |
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