2017-2018 UEFA Champions League Simulation


2017 champions league finalThe 2017-2018 Champions League season runs from the end of June in 2017 to the early summer of 2018. We recently have added data to account for every league in Europe, so we can give predictions for every single Champions League game.

We programmed all the rules of the Champions League and simulated every pair of games 5,000 times. The UEFA Champions League uses the Away goals rule, so our simulations are based upon these standards. In our simulations, we also offer the probabilities for method of victory within each two leg grouping. Also note that if a team wins by away goals in extra time then we set their method of victory as “Away Goals”.

To set the standard for our simulations, we use the ratings from our European Football Rankings page. You can read more about the methodology of these rankings here, but essentially, we take into account the scores of all prior games to give teams a rating. It is important to note that these ratings are adjusted based on whether the game is played at home or away. For all of our individual game predictions, go here.

We will continue to update this page throughout the qualification, group stage, and playoff process.

Original Posting: 6/24/2017

UEFA Champions League Simulation – Qualification – First Round

The Champions League first qualifying round consists of the ten champions that come from the ten associations at the bottom of the UEFA standings. The first leg of games took place on June 27th and 28th, 2017 and the second leg of games took place on July 4th and 5th, 2017.

# Team Advanced To Advance After Leg 1 Method of Victory To Advance Before Leg 1
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 Alashkert n/a 67.5% 4.8% 1.2% 1.4% 74.9%
FC Santa Coloma n/a 17.4% 4.2% 2.2% 1.3% 25.1%
2 Hibernians n/a 20.2% 4.5% 0.7% 0.8% 26.2%
Infonet Tallinn n/a 66.5% 3.9% 2.5% 0.9% 73.8%
3 La Fiorita n/a 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 2.4%
Linfield n/a 95.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 97.6%
4 Europa FC n/a 6.3% 2% 0.5% 0.4% 9.2%
TNS n/a 86.5% 2.8% 1.3% 0.2% 90.8%
5 Trepca 89 n/a 56.6% 5.1% 1.9% 0.8% 64.4%
Vikingur n/a 27.5% 6% 1.1% 1% 35.6%

UEFA Champions League – Qualification – Second Round

The second qualifying round consists of the five winners from Round 1 and the 29 champions of the UEFA leagues that are ranked 16 to 45 (with the exception of Liechtenstein). The first leg of this round was played on the 11th and 12th of July and the second leg was played on the 18th and 19th of July.

# Team Advanced To Advance After Leg 1 Method of Victory To Advance Before Leg 1
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 Qarabag 100 99.9% 0% 0.1% 0% 88.7%
Samtredia 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11.3%
2 FC Copenhagen 99% 97.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 81.2%
Zilina 1% 0.7% 0.1% 0% 0.2% 18.8%
3 Hibernians 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.8%
Salzburg 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 99.2%
4 Buducnost 4.1% 1.9% 0% 1.1% 1.1% 22%
Partizan 95.9% 91.2% 2.7% 1% 1% 78%
5 Rijeka 94.1% 88.2% 3.8% 1% 1.1% 76.1%
TNS 5.9% 4.3% 0% 0.9% 0.7% 23.9%
6 FC Astana 87.2% 84.4% 0% 2.3% 0.5% 75.6%
Spartaks 12.8% 5% 6.4% 0.9% 0.5% 24.4%
7 APOEL 52.5% 33.9% 13.9% 1.5% 3.2% 28.8%
Dudelange 47.5% 39.5% 0% 5.3% 2.7% 71.2%
8 H. Beer Sheva 80.7% 75.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1% 80.9%
Honved 19.3% 7.5% 9.8% 1% 1% 19.1%
9 Malmo FF 47.6% 35.2% 6.5% 2.3% 3.6% 67.2%
Vardar 52.4% 33.6% 11.2% 2.7% 4.9% 32.8%
10 Kukesi 29.6% 20.6% 0% 5% 4% 48.9%
Sheriff Tiraspol 70.4% 52.8% 9.7% 3.2% 4.7% 51.1%
11 Maribor 74.7% 58.5% 8.6% 3.9% 3.7% 67.2%
Zrinjski 25.3% 14.9% 5.6% 1.3% 3.5% 32.8%
12 Alashkert 30.1% 18.1% 8.3% 1.5% 2.2% 16.6%
BATE 69.9% 57.5% 6.6% 4.1% 1.7% 83.4%
13 Legia 99.6% 99.3% 0% 0.1% 0.2% 81%
Mariehamn 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0% 0% 19%
14 Ludogorets 66.4% 50.8% 10.5% 3.7% 1.4% 85%
Zalgiris 33.6% 26% 3.8% 2% 1.8% 15%
15 Dundalk 23.1% 13.2% 6.5% 1.4% 2% 28.7%
Rosenborg 76.9% 66.9% 4.3% 3.5% 2.2% 71.3%
16 Hafnarfjordur 75.1% 62.4% 7.4% 3.9% 1.4% 90.4%
Vikingur 24.9% 16.3% 5.8% 1.2% 1.6% 9.6%
17 Celtic 98.9% 98.5% 0% 0.3% 0.1% 87.5%
Linfield 1.1% 0.2% 0.8% 0% 0.1% 12.5%

UEFA Champions League – Qualification – Third Round

The third qualifying round consists of the seventeen winners from Round 2, the three champions from associations ranked 13 through 15, nine runners-up from associations ranked 7 through 15 and the second runner-up from the association ranked 6. The first leg of this round was played on the 25th and 26th of July and the second leg was played on the 1st and 2nd of August.

# Team Advanced To Advance After Leg 1 Method of Victory To Advance Before Leg 1
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 Qarabag 67.5 42.6% 18.9% 3.2% 2.8% 73.5%
Sheriff Tiraspol 32.5% 26.5% 0% 2.9% 3.1% 26.5%
2 BATE 17.6% 13.3% 0% 2% 2.3% 29.5%
Slavia Prague 82.4% 67.9% 9.7% 2.3% 2.5% 70.5%
3 AEK Athens FC 2.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 26.3%
CSKA Moscow 97.8% 96.2% 0% 0.7% 0.9% 73.7%
4 FCSB 24.4% 22.3% 0.4% 0.6% 1.1% 43.3%
Plzen 75.6% 51.6% 21.1% 1.7% 1.2% 56.7%
5 FC Copenhagen 60.7% 51.9% 0% 6.1% 2.7% 86%
Vardar 39.3% 24.8% 10.9% 0.9% 2.7% 14%
6 Olympiakos Piraeus 97.2% 94.3% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 66.9%
Partizan 2.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 33.1%
7 FC Astana 71.1% 68.1% 1.6% 0.4% 1% 34.4%
Legia 28.9% 14.3% 11.9% 1.7% 1% 65.6%
8 Dyn. Kiev 89.8% 87.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 76.6%
Young Boys 10.2% 4.3% 5% 0.5% 0.4% 23.4%
9 Rijeka 45.1% 32.9% 7.2% 2.9% 2.1% 28.8%
Salzburg 54.9% 40.2% 7.3% 3.6% 3.8% 71.2%
10 H. Beer Sheva 84.6% 76.4% 5% 1.4% 1.8% 51%
Ludogorets 15.4% 10.5% 0% 2.8% 2.1% 49%
11 APOEL 45.2% 38.4% 0% 3.8% 3% 67%
FC Viitorul 54.8% 33.8% 15.1% 2.5% 3.4% 33%
12 Hafnarfjordur 27.2% 21.1% 0% 4% 2.1% 41.9%
Maribor 72.8% 55.2% 12.5% 1.8% 3.3% 58.1%
13 Celtic 56.5% 35.5% 18.3% 1.2% 1.5% 65.3%
Rosenborg 43.5% 39.1% 0% 1.7% 2.7% 34.7%
14 Ajax 68.2% 51.7% 9.3% 4.4% 2.8% 56.6%
Nice 31.8% 21.5% 5.5% 1.7% 3.1% 43.4%
15 Basaksehir 68.2% 39.7% 28.1% 0.2% 0.2% 41.2%
Club Brugge KV 31.8% 31.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 58.8%

UEFA Champions League – Qualification – Playoff Round

The playoff round consists of the fifteen winners from Round 3, two third place teams from associations ranked 4 and 5, and the fourth place teams from the associations ranked 1 through 3. The first leg of this round was played on the 15th and 16th of August and the second leg will be played on the 22nd and 23rd of August.

# Team To Advance After Leg 1 Method of Victory To Advance Before Leg 1
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 FC Copenhagen 44.7% 37.5% 0% 4.1% 3.1% 71.3%
Qarabag 55.3% 38.2% 12.1% 1.6% 3.4% 28.7%
2 APOEL 83.4% 73.5% 6% 1.8% 2.1% 46.9%
Slavia Prague 16.6% 11.6% 0% 2.6% 2.4% 53.1%
3 Hoffenheim 14.1% 8.9% 3.4% 0.7% 1.1% 46.1%
Liverpool 85.9% 77.7% 4.6% 2.4% 1.2% 53.9%
4 FCSB 38.1% 32.6% 0% 2.6% 2.9% 28.9%
Sporting 61.9% 35% 20.9% 3.3% 2.7% 71.1%
5 CSKA Moscow 90.2% 87.3% 0% 2.2% 0.7% 75.1%
Young Boys 9.8% 2.9% 6.5% 0% 0.4% 24.9%
6 Basaksehir 4.5% 2.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.6% 16.7%
Sevilla 95.5% 91.3% 3% 0.8% 0.4% 83.3%
7 Celtic 100% 99.9% 0% 0.1% 0% 78.8%
FC Astana 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21.2%
8 H. Beer Sheva 74.1% 68.4% 2.3% 2.1% 1.3% 68.7%
Maribor 25.9% 10.9% 11.8% 1.8% 1.4% 31.3%
9 Napoli 94% 86.3% 4% 2% 1.7% 70.3%
Nice 6% 4% 0% 0.9% 1.1% 29.7%
10 Olympiakos Piraeus 63.4% 56.4% 3% 2.2% 1.8% 58.7%
Rijeka 36.6% 19.9% 12.7% 2.5% 1.5% 41.3%

UEFA Champions League – Group Stage

The Group stage ran from September 12th, 2017 through December 6th, 2017. The following tables have been updated after the first two of six games have been played.

Group A Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points To Win Group 2nd in Group
Manchester United
4.4
0.7
0.9
14.1
90.5%
9%
CSKA Moscow
2.7
2.4
0.9
8.9
7.1%
59.8%
Basel
2
3
0.9
7.1
2.2%
27.3%
Benfica
1.1
4
0.9
4.2
0.2%
3.9%
Group B Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points To Win Group 2nd in Group
Paris SG
4.1
1.1
0.8
13.2
59.2%
40%
Bayern Munich
3.9
1.5
0.7
12.3
40.3%
55.2%
Celtic
1.7
3.7
0.7
5.6
0.4%
3.9%
Anderlecht
0.8
4.3
0.9
3.4
0.1%
0.9%
Group C Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points To Win Group 2nd in Group
Chelsea
4.3
0.8
0.9
13.8
85.3%
12.6%
AS Roma
2.3
1.8
1.9
8.9
9.8%
44.1%
Atl. Madrid
2.1
2
1.9
8.3
4.9%
41.9%
Qarabag
0.5
4.7
0.8
2.3
0%
1.4%
Group D Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points To Win Group 2nd in Group
Barcelona
4.6
0.7
0.6
14.5
85.7%
14.9%
Juventus
3.4
1.7
0.9
11.1
13.7%
73.5%
Sporting
1.9
3.3
0.8
6.5
0.6%
11.1%
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.5
4.7
0.7
2.3
0%
0.5%
Group E Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points To Win Group 2nd in Group
Sevilla
3.4
0.7
1.8
12.1
65.7%
29.5%
Liverpool
2.6
0.7
2.7
10.6
32.7%
61.3%
Spartak Moscow
1
2.3
2.8
5.7
1.5%
7.5%
Maribor
0.5
3.8
1.7
3.1
0.2%
1.7%
Group F Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points To Win Group 2nd in Group
Manchester City
4
1.2
0.8
12.7
69.8%
22.4%
Napoli
3.1
2.1
0.8
10
20.8%
41.2%
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.8
2.4
0.9
9.1
9.3%
35.3%
Feyenoord
0.6
4.7
0.7
2.5
0%
1.1%
Group G Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points To Win Group 2nd in Group
Besiktas
3.1
1.9
1
10.3
52.9%
28.5%
FC Porto
2.5
2.5
1.1
8.5
23.1%
32.1%
Monaco
1.8
2.1
2
7.5
16%
21.8%
RB Leipzig
1.5
2.5
2
6.6
8%
17.5%
Group H Projections
Team Wins Losses Ties Points To Win Group 2nd in Group
Real Madrid
4.8
0.5
0.7
15.1
90%
10.6%
Tottenham
3.3
2
0.7
10.5
9.5%
75.3%
Dortmund
2.1
3.2
0.7
7.1
0.5%
13.7%
APOEL
0.4
4.9
0.6
1.9
0%
0.4%

UEFA Champions League – Round of 16

The two stage Round of 16 will be played from February 13th, 2018 through March 14th, 2018.

# Team To Advance Method of Victory
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 Basel 12% 9.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.3%
Manchester City 88% 83.1% 3% 1.3% 0.6%
2 Juventus 56.9% 47.7% 5.5% 1.7% 2%
Tottenham 43.1% 34.5% 4.8% 2.3% 1.5%
3 FC Porto 37.9% 28.5% 7.2% 0.8% 1.4%
Liverpool 62.1% 54.7% 4.1% 2.1% 1.2%
4 Paris SG 37.6% 28.9% 5.7% 2% 1%
Real Madrid 62.4% 52.8% 6.3% 2.4% 0.9%
5 Bayern Munich 85.6% 79.3% 4.2% 1.3% 0.8%
Besiktas 14.4% 10.1% 2.6% 1.2% 0.5%
6 Barcelona 69% 60.4% 4.8% 2.9% 0.9%
Chelsea 31% 23.1% 6.1% 0.9% 0.9%
7 Manchester United 73.3% 66.5% 4.4% 1.8% 0.6%
Sevilla 26.7% 19.1% 6.1% 0.5% 1%
8 AS Roma 67.5% 59% 4.1% 3% 1.4%
Shakhtar Donetsk 32.5% 25.5% 4.6% 0.6% 1.8%

UEFA Champions League – Quarterfinals

The two stage Quarterfinals will be played from April 3rd, 2018 through April 11th, 2018.

# Team To Advance Method of Victory
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 Juventus 33.5% 24.5% 7% 1.2% 0.8%
Real Madrid 66.5% 58.5% 4.3% 2.9% 0.8%
2 Bayern Munich 91.7% 88.1% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Sevilla 8.3% 5.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
3 AS Roma 20.5% 14.5% 4.1% 0.8% 1.1%
Barcelona 79.5% 75.1% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3%
4 Liverpool 37.7% 28.7% 7% 1.2% 0.8%
Manchester City 62.3% 53.7% 5.2% 2.2% 1.2%

UEFA Champions League – Semifinals

The two stage Semifinals will be played during the last week of April and first week of May.

# Team To Advance Method of Victory
Score Diff Away Goals Extra Time Shootout
1 AS Roma 35.6% 26.9% 5.3% 2% 1.4%
Liverpool 64.4% 55.6% 5.8% 1.6% 1.4%
2 Bayern Munich 42.1% 34.1% 6.2% 1% 0.8%
Real Madrid 57.9% 49.6% 4.5% 3.4% 0.4%

UEFA Champions League – Finals

The Champions League Final is set for May 26th, 2018 at NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev.

Date Away Home Odds to Win To Advance Score Proj Total Goals
5/26
Liverpool
England
Real Madrid
Spain
Real Madrid to win: 50.4% Real Madrid to win: 64.1% 2.03 3.28
Liverpool to win: 22% Liverpool to win: 35.8% 1.24
Odds to Draw: 27.6%