NCAA FBS (1-A) College Football Ratings


NCAA FBS College Football Computer Ratings

Below are listed the current NCAA FBS college football ratings as computed by the Donchess Inference Index.
More information on how these NCAA computer ratings are computed can be found on the Methodology page and we do our predictions on each game at College Football game predictions.

DII Rating– This is a NCAA football ratings system that is a combination of the Standard Rating and the Aegis Rating. The Aegis Rating is weighted more highly in the beginning of the season whereas the Standard Rating is weighted more highly at the end of the season. This is the final rating that is used to rank the teams. We also use the Vegas Rating to help create our preseason rankings, but these place a much lesser roll as the season goes on.

Standard Rating– Looks at game outcome, date and score differential only. Record is the most important factor in this rating system. Further, this rating system is heavily based on the outcomes of games in the current season and is totally based on that come season end. This rating has the least amount of bias and shows what teams are “most politically correct” to make the top 4 playoff.

Aegis Rating– Replacing the Inference Rating, this uses mostly the same the same criteria as the Standard Rating, but heavily weighs the margin of victory of the game. Data from previous seasons weighs into this algorithm (especially, early in the season). This is system is a much better predictor of future game outcomes.

Vegas Rating– This is our newest rating. The Vegas rating takes into account what the Vegas line on each game is. More recent games are weighed the most heavily, and outcome and score differential are also of factor. This rating system is also a very good predictor of future outcomes. Overall, this rating tells us which teams are the best regardless of win-loss record.

It’s also important to note that the ratings early in the season are very unstable as there is not a lot of data on the games yet.

Preseason 2016-2017: Updated 7/13/2016.

FBS College Football Rankings

Rank Team Rec Rating Chg SOS (Rank) Standard (Rank) Aegis (Rank) Vegas (Rank)
1
Alabama
0-0
3.717
0
0 (1)
4.161 (1)
3.252 (1)
3.818 (1)
2
Ohio St
0-0
3.223
0
0 (1)
3.081 (4)
2.942 (2)
3.447 (2)
3
Clemson
0-0
2.944
0
0 (1)
3.537 (2)
2.534 (5)
2.954 (4)
4
Oklahoma
0-0
2.832
0
0 (1)
2.853 (6)
2.514 (6)
3.014 (3)
5
Stanford
0-0
2.693
1
0 (1)
2.934 (5)
2.486 (8)
2.721 (6)
6
Mississippi
0-0
2.656
2
0 (1)
2.799 (7)
2.565 (4)
2.655 (7)
7
TCU
0-0
2.613
-2
0 (1)
2.708 (8)
2.637 (3)
2.560 (8)
8
Baylor
0-0
2.519
-1
0 (1)
2.039 (23)
2.500 (7)
2.722 (5)
9
Michigan St
0-0
2.474
0
0 (1)
3.125 (3)
2.402 (10)
2.257 (14)
10
LSU
0-0
2.430
0
0 (1)
2.416 (10)
2.265 (13)
2.535 (9)
11
Notre Dame
0-0
2.331
0
0 (1)
2.302 (13)
2.159 (16)
2.445 (11)
12
Michigan
0-0
2.323
2
0 (1)
2.412 (11)
1.987 (20)
2.488 (10)
13
Tennessee
0-0
2.287
0
0 (1)
2.293 (14)
2.193 (14)
2.342 (12)
14
Oregon
0-0
2.228
-2
0 (1)
2.140 (19)
2.459 (9)
2.124 (18)
15
Arkansas
0-0
2.199
1
0 (1)
2.233 (16)
2.295 (12)
2.127 (17)
16
Florida St
0-0
2.164
1
0 (1)
1.873 (26)
2.103 (17)
2.318 (13)
17
Georgia
0-0
2.164
-2
0 (1)
2.182 (18)
2.183 (15)
2.146 (16)
18
Mississippi St
0-0
2.046
1
0 (1)
2.184 (17)
2.320 (11)
1.826 (20)
19
USC
0-0
2.043
-1
0 (1)
1.526 (31)
2.073 (19)
2.231 (15)
20
North Carolina
0-0
1.933
1
0 (1)
1.883 (25)
1.716 (31)
2.084 (19)
21
Wisconsin
0-0
1.903
-1
0 (1)
2.103 (21)
2.085 (18)
1.714 (23)
22
Iowa
0-0
1.866
0
0 (1)
2.630 (9)
1.819 (25)
1.588 (26)
23
Utah
0-0
1.770
0
0 (1)
1.731 (28)
1.932 (22)
1.687 (24)
24
Oklahoma St
0-0
1.752
2
0 (1)
2.074 (22)
1.770 (28)
1.613 (25)
25
Texas A&M
0-0
1.737
-1
0 (1)
1.475 (35)
1.852 (24)
1.773 (22)
26
UCLA
0-0
1.682
-1
0 (1)
1.161 (45)
1.810 (26)
1.814 (21)
27
Houston
0-0
1.666
2
0 (1)
2.389 (12)
1.576 (38)
1.431 (29)
28
Auburn
0-0
1.663
-1
0 (1)
1.716 (29)
1.948 (21)
1.472 (27)
29
Florida
0-0
1.637
-1
0 (1)
1.929 (24)
1.802 (27)
1.421 (32)
30
West Virginia
0-0
1.572
0
0 (1)
1.485 (34)
1.867 (23)
1.430 (30)
31
Navy
0-0
1.498
1
0 (1)
2.130 (20)
1.522 (39)
1.231 (34)
32
California
0-0
1.494
-1
0 (1)
1.502 (33)
1.610 (36)
1.421 (31)
33
Washington
0-0
1.493
0
0 (1)
1.2 (42)
1.747 (29)
1.458 (28)
34
Louisville
0-0
1.403
0
0 (1)
1.513 (32)
1.627 (34)
1.225 (36)
35
Memphis
0-0
1.355
0
0 (1)
1.236 (41)
1.647 (32)
1.228 (35)
36
Northwestern
0-0
1.323
1
0 (1)
2.269 (15)
1.478 (43)
0.851 (47)
37
W Kentucky
0-0
1.321
2
0 (1)
1.688 (30)
1.454 (46)
1.094 (41)
38
Nebraska
0-0
1.280
0
0 (1)
1.122 (46)
1.643 (33)
1.126 (38)
39
Arizona St
0-0
1.247
-3
0 (1)
0.765 (59)
1.721 (30)
1.155 (37)
40
BYU
0-0
1.209
0
0 (1)
1.039 (50)
1.489 (42)
1.109 (39)
41
Washington St
0-0
1.193
2
0 (1)
1.820 (27)
1.409 (51)
0.813 (49)
42
Texas Tech
0-0
1.160
0
0 (1)
1.431 (37)
1.379 (53)
0.920 (43)
43
Boise St
0-0
1.158
-2
0 (1)
0.438 (66)
1.477 (44)
1.254 (33)
44
Miami FL
0-0
1.131
3
0 (1)
1.446 (36)
1.450 (48)
0.814 (48)
45
Pittsburgh
0-0
1.127
1
0 (1)
1.291 (40)
1.424 (49)
0.884 (45)
46
Toledo
0-0
1.106
2
0 (1)
1.391 (39)
1.515 (40)
0.748 (52)
47
Penn St
0-0
1.087
-3
0 (1)
1.046 (49)
1.320 (54)
0.964 (42)
48
Texas
0-0
1.061
1
0 (1)
1.176 (44)
1.451 (47)
0.781 (51)
49
Bowling Green
0-0
1.007
1
0 (1)
1.072 (48)
1.143 (62)
0.900 (44)
50
Georgia Tech
0-0
1.001
-5
0 (1)
-0.16 (87)
1.600 (37)
1.108 (40)
51
Virginia Tech
0-0
0.942
2
0 (1)
0.640 (62)
1.385 (52)
0.798 (50)
52
Arizona
0-0
0.939
-1
0 (1)
0.800 (58)
1.455 (45)
0.685 (53)
53
NC State
0-0
0.925
2
0 (1)
0.538 (65)
1.254 (56)
0.882 (46)
54
Kansas St
0-0
0.893
-2
0 (1)
0.841 (55)
1.613 (35)
0.482 (55)
55
Temple
0-0
0.827
1
0 (1)
0.960 (51)
1.142 (63)
0.585 (54)
56
Missouri
0-0
0.815
-2
0 (1)
0.618 (63)
1.503 (41)
0.482 (55)
57
Appalachian St
0-0
0.783
2
0 (1)
1.418 (38)
0.907 (75)
0.455 (57)
58
San Diego St
0-0
0.774
2
0 (1)
1.193 (43)
1.202 (60)
0.350 (60)
59
Minnesota
0-0
0.746
-2
0 (1)
0.900 (52)
1.296 (55)
0.354 (59)
60
Duke
0-0
0.729
-2
0 (1)
0.716 (60)
1.240 (59)
0.428 (58)
61
Louisiana Tech
0-0
0.691
1
0 (1)
0.869 (54)
1.245 (58)
0.287 (61)
62
W Michigan
0-0
0.683
2
0 (1)
1.087 (47)
1.130 (64)
0.253 (64)
63
Ga Southern
0-0
0.679
0
0 (1)
0.835 (57)
1.251 (57)
0.272 (62)
64
Marshall
0-0
0.663
-3
0 (1)
0.836 (56)
1.414 (50)
0.144 (66)
65
Cincinnati
0-0
0.523
0
0 (1)
0.401 (69)
1.047 (65)
0.256 (63)
66
Indiana
0-0
0.407
1
0 (1)
0.406 (68)
0.922 (73)
0.097 (67)
67
N Illinois
0-0
0.400
1
0 (1)
0.265 (73)
1.024 (67)
0.080 (68)
68
South Carolina
0-0
0.359
-2
0 (1)
-0.05 (82)
1.144 (61)
0.054 (69)
69
Air Force
0-0
0.328
0
0 (1)
0.271 (72)
0.991 (70)
-0.04 (71)
70
Arkansas St
0-0
0.322
5
0 (1)
0.882 (53)
0.805 (79)
-0.19 (75)
71
South Florida
0-0
0.311
2
0 (1)
0.251 (74)
0.544 (88)
0.195 (65)
72
Virginia
0-0
0.285
-1
0 (1)
0.118 (80)
1.024 (66)
-0.09 (73)
73
Illinois
0-0
0.283
-3
0 (1)
0.587 (64)
0.876 (77)
-0.19 (76)
74
Kentucky
0-0
0.217
-2
0 (1)
0.167 (78)
0.949 (71)
-0.20 (77)
75
Utah St
0-0
0.216
1
0 (1)
-0.11 (83)
0.923 (72)
-0.07 (72)
76
Southern Miss
0-0
0.216
3
0 (1)
0.696 (61)
0.663 (82)
-0.24 (80)
77
Maryland
0-0
0.204
-3
0 (1)
0.065 (81)
1.009 (69)
-0.22 (79)
78
Vanderbilt
0-0
0.177
-1
0 (1)
0.341 (71)
0.618 (85)
-0.15 (74)
79
C Michigan
0-0
0.129
3
0 (1)
0.355 (70)
0.821 (78)
-0.37 (81)
80
Iowa St
0-0
0.127
-2
0 (1)
0.235 (76)
0.919 (74)
-0.39 (82)
81
East Carolina
0-0
0.066
-1
0 (1)
-0.34 (93)
0.803 (80)
-0.20 (78)
82
Boston College
0-0
0.053
-1
0 (1)
-1.18 (110)
1.024 (68)
-0.03 (70)
83
Ohio
0-0
0.032
0
0 (1)
0.433 (67)
0.636 (84)
-0.49 (85)
84
MTSU
0-0
-0.02
0
0 (1)
0.198 (77)
0.554 (87)
-0.46 (84)
85
Colorado
0-0
-0.08
1
0 (1)
-0.38 (95)
0.637 (83)
-0.39 (83)
86
Rutgers
0-0
-0.11
-1
0 (1)
-0.15 (85)
0.882 (76)
-0.70 (87)
87
Syracuse
0-0
-0.20
0
0 (1)
-0.37 (94)
0.531 (89)
-0.58 (86)
88
Colorado St
0-0
-0.22
0
0 (1)
-0.16 (86)
0.750 (81)
-0.83 (89)
89
Akron
0-0
-0.31
1
0 (1)
0.243 (75)
0.427 (92)
-0.98 (94)
90
Purdue
0-0
-0.38
-1
0 (1)
-0.54 (96)
0.594 (86)
-0.90 (91)
91
San Jose St
0-0
-0.40
2
0 (1)
-0.20 (88)
0.283 (93)
-0.89 (90)
92
Connecticut
0-0
-0.40
-1
0 (1)
0.136 (79)
0.177 (95)
-0.97 (93)
93
Wake Forest
0-0
-0.47
1
0 (1)
-0.75 (101)
0.245 (94)
-0.78 (88)
94
Nevada
0-0
-0.47
1
0 (1)
-0.20 (89)
0.492 (91)
-1.15 (96)
95
Oregon St
0-0
-0.49
-3
0 (1)
-0.80 (103)
0.505 (90)
-0.97 (92)
96
Tulsa
0-0
-0.50
0
0 (1)
-0.24 (90)
0.142 (98)
-1.00 (95)
97
New Mexico
0-0
-0.70
0
0 (1)
-0.15 (84)
0.136 (99)
-1.43 (98)
98
Buffalo
0-0
-0.78
0
0 (1)
-0.74 (100)
0.171 (97)
-1.36 (97)
99
Troy
0-0
-0.91
0
0 (1)
-0.54 (97)
-0.00 (105)
-1.60 (99)
100
Florida Intl
0-0
-0.93
0
0 (1)
-0.67 (99)
0.061 (101)
-1.63 (100)
101
Rice
0-0
-1.04
0
0 (1)
-0.89 (105)
0.173 (96)
-1.84 (101)
102
South Alabama
0-0
-1.08
0
0 (1)
-0.25 (91)
-0.00 (104)
-2.05 (109)
103
Georgia St
0-0
-1.12
3
0 (1)
-0.26 (92)
-0.16 (112)
-2.04 (108)
104
Ball St
0-0
-1.15
-1
0 (1)
-1.15 (109)
0.039 (103)
-1.87 (102)
105
FL Atlantic
0-0
-1.17
-1
0 (1)
-1.02 (106)
-0.07 (108)
-1.88 (103)
106
ULL
0-0
-1.21
-1
0 (1)
-1.05 (107)
0.053 (102)
-2.04 (107)
107
Massachusetts
0-0
-1.26
0
0 (1)
-1.33 (118)
-0.13 (110)
-1.91 (104)
108
UNLV
0-0
-1.31
1
0 (1)
-1.25 (114)
-0.26 (116)
-1.95 (105)
109
Kent
0-0
-1.34
1
0 (1)
-1.23 (113)
-0.26 (115)
-2.03 (106)
110
Fresno St
0-0
-1.37
-2
0 (1)
-1.20 (112)
-0.05 (107)
-2.23 (112)
111
UT San Antonio
0-0
-1.39
0
0 (1)
-1.19 (111)
-0.17 (113)
-2.20 (111)
112
Army
0-0
-1.50
0
0 (1)
-1.92 (126)
-0.12 (109)
-2.16 (110)
113
Texas St
0-0
-1.54
0
0 (1)
-1.27 (115)
-0.25 (114)
-2.43 (115)
114
SMU
0-0
-1.55
1
0 (1)
-1.32 (117)
-0.55 (125)
-2.24 (113)
115
Idaho
0-0
-1.57
2
0 (1)
-0.59 (98)
-0.47 (122)
-2.63 (117)
116
Tulane
0-0
-1.60
-2
0 (1)
-1.40 (120)
-0.32 (117)
-2.45 (116)
117
UTEP
0-0
-1.63
2
0 (1)
-0.77 (102)
-0.15 (111)
-2.87 (124)
118
Old Dominion
0-0
-1.64
0
0 (1)
-0.85 (104)
-0.34 (119)
-2.73 (120)
119
Hawaii
0-0
-1.65
-3
0 (1)
-1.67 (122)
-0.37 (120)
-2.41 (114)
120
Miami OH
0-0
-1.68
1
0 (1)
-1.29 (116)
-0.33 (118)
-2.65 (118)
121
Kansas
0-0
-1.69
-1
0 (1)
-1.69 (123)
0.062 (100)
-2.74 (121)
122
Wyoming
0-0
-1.83
1
0 (1)
-1.50 (121)
-0.50 (124)
-2.76 (122)
123
UCF
0-0
-1.89
-1
0 (1)
-2.68 (128)
-0.04 (106)
-2.69 (119)
124
ULM
0-0
-1.91
0
0 (1)
-1.85 (124)
-0.48 (123)
-2.79 (123)
125
New Mexico St
0-0
-1.99
0
0 (1)
-1.09 (108)
-0.70 (126)
-3.12 (125)
126
Charlotte
0-0
-2.12
-1
0 (1)
-1.40 (119)
-0.40 (121)
-3.45 (126)
127
North Texas
0-0
-2.45
-2
0 (1)
-1.87 (125)
-0.81 (127)
-3.66 (128)
128
E Michigan
0-0
-2.58
-3
0 (1)
-2.48 (127)
-1.00 (128)
-3.57 (127)

Top Conferences in College Football – Top to Bottom

The “top to bottom” approach gives the simple average of the rating for every team in the conference. In my opinion, this is the best and most unbiased way to rank conferences.

Rank Conference Rating
1
SEC
1.722
2
PAC12
1.350
3
BIG12
1.284
4
BIG10
1.187
5
ACC
0.997
6
INDEP
0.678
7
AAC
0.023
8
MWC
-0.45
9
MAC
-0.48
10
CUSA
-0.86
11
SUNBELT
-0.87
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