NCAA FBS (1-A) College Football Ratings


NCAA FBS College Football Computer Ratings

Below are listed the current NCAA FBS college football ratings as computed by the Donchess Inference Index.
More information on how these NCAA computer ratings are computed can be found on the Methodology page and we do our predictions on each game at College Football game predictions.

DII Rating– This is a NCAA football ratings system that is a combination of the Standard Rating and the Aegis Rating. The Aegis Rating is weighted more highly in the beginning of the season whereas the Standard Rating is weighted more highly at the end of the season. This is the final rating that is used to rank the teams. We also use the Vegas Rating to help create our preseason rankings, but these place a much lesser roll as the season goes on.

Standard Rating– Looks at game outcome, date and score differential only. Record is the most important factor in this rating system. Further, this rating system is heavily based on the outcomes of games in the current season and is totally based on that come season end. This rating has the least amount of bias and shows what teams are “most politically correct” to make the top 4 playoff.

Aegis Rating– Replacing the Inference Rating, this uses mostly the same the same criteria as the Standard Rating, but heavily weighs the margin of victory of the game. Data from previous seasons weighs into this algorithm (especially, early in the season). This is system is a much better predictor of future game outcomes.

Vegas Rating– This is our newest rating. The Vegas rating takes into account what the Vegas line on each game is. More recent games are weighed the most heavily, and outcome and score differential are also of factor. This rating system is also a very good predictor of future outcomes. Overall, this rating tells us which teams are the best regardless of win-loss record.

It’s also important to note that the ratings early in the season are very unstable as there is not a lot of data on the games yet.

Updated 9/25/2016.

FBS College Football Rankings

Rank Team Rec Rating Chg SOS (Rank) Standard (Rank) Aegis (Rank) Vegas (Rank)
1
Alabama
4-0
3.633
0
0.837 (15)
3.761 (1)
3.277 (1)
4.036 (1)
2
Ohio St
3-0
3.154
0
0.847 (14)
2.639 (9)
3.067 (2)
3.693 (2)
3
Clemson
4-0
2.845
0
0.321 (43)
3.212 (2)
2.557 (3)
2.957 (4)
4
Michigan
4-0
2.641
1
-0.24 (88)
2.437 (12)
2.443 (6)
3.085 (3)
5
Stanford
3-0
2.579
-1
1.228 (10)
2.617 (10)
2.529 (4)
2.618 (7)
6
Florida St
3-1
2.545
4
1.575 (2)
2.676 (8)
2.342 (7)
2.725 (5)
7
Louisville
4-0
2.527
5
0.309 (44)
3.112 (3)
2.218 (9)
2.495 (9)
8
Houston
4-0
2.439
-2
0.000 (67)
2.833 (5)
2.458 (5)
2.095 (13)
9
Tennessee
4-0
2.430
-1
0.732 (22)
3.088 (4)
2.092 (13)
2.379 (10)
10
Mississippi
2-2
2.332
5
1.515 (4)
2.102 (15)
2.341 (8)
2.505 (8)
11
Texas A&M
4-0
2.279
6
0.636 (26)
2.744 (7)
2.156 (12)
2.079 (14)
12
Oklahoma
1-2
2.096
-3
1.450 (5)
1.185 (45)
2.204 (11)
2.678 (6)
13
Wisconsin
4-0
2.061
6
0.724 (23)
2.750 (6)
2.016 (16)
1.569 (21)
14
Baylor
4-0
2.057
0
-0.98 (122)
1.469 (34)
2.204 (10)
2.323 (12)
15
LSU
2-2
2.032
-4
1.237 (8)
1.594 (30)
2.065 (14)
2.339 (11)
16
Washington
4-0
1.956
0
-0.53 (104)
1.889 (22)
1.919 (18)
2.063 (15)
17
Arkansas
3-1
1.830
-4
0.827 (16)
1.984 (17)
1.892 (19)
1.619 (19)
18
TCU
3-1
1.802
2
0.028 (65)
1.295 (40)
2.047 (15)
1.863 (16)
19
Michigan St
2-1
1.780
-12
0.525 (31)
1.793 (25)
1.976 (17)
1.492 (25)
20
North Carolina
3-1
1.689
6
0.383 (39)
1.544 (31)
1.882 (20)
1.533 (23)
21
Nebraska
4-0
1.682
8
-0.07 (72)
1.939 (19)
1.661 (34)
1.504 (24)
22
Navy
3-0
1.662
3
-0.43 (100)
2.371 (13)
1.779 (24)
0.925 (41)
23
Utah
4-0
1.658
4
0.230 (56)
1.977 (18)
1.782 (23)
1.226 (33)
24
West Virginia
3-0
1.657
8
0.160 (59)
2.125 (14)
1.707 (30)
1.208 (34)
25
Auburn
2-2
1.630
11
1.376 (7)
1.694 (28)
1.710 (29)
1.463 (26)
26
San Diego St
3-0
1.625
-5
-0.19 (85)
2.566 (11)
1.516 (41)
1.022 (40)
27
Miami FL
3-0
1.602
6
-1.50 (126)
1.910 (21)
1.684 (32)
1.238 (30)
28
USC
1-3
1.559
-5
2.095 (1)
1.005 (50)
1.808 (22)
1.653 (18)
29
Georgia
3-1
1.539
-7
0.765 (19)
2.073 (16)
1.449 (45)
1.237 (31)
30
Florida
3-1
1.538
1
-0.06 (71)
1.478 (32)
1.662 (33)
1.411 (27)
31
UCLA
2-2
1.485
-1
1.231 (9)
1.214 (41)
1.591 (37)
1.553 (22)
32
Arizona St
4-0
1.474
5
-0.22 (87)
1.751 (26)
1.591 (37)
1.085 (37)
33
Iowa
3-1
1.474
6
-0.21 (86)
1.697 (27)
1.768 (26)
0.875 (44)
34
Memphis
3-0
1.469
9
-1.20 (124)
1.128 (47)
1.812 (21)
1.257 (29)
35
Oregon
2-2
1.462
-11
-0.05 (69)
0.767 (61)
1.767 (27)
1.590 (20)
36
Virginia Tech
3-1
1.451
13
0.266 (52)
1.648 (29)
1.610 (35)
1.066 (38)
37
South Florida
3-1
1.407
-9
0.110 (62)
1.472 (33)
1.592 (36)
1.091 (36)
38
Boise St
3-0
1.368
0
0.151 (61)
1.454 (35)
1.387 (47)
1.273 (28)
39
W Michigan
4-0
1.359
6
-0.19 (83)
1.925 (20)
1.508 (44)
0.692 (48)
40
Notre Dame
1-3
1.350
-22
0.673 (25)
0.219 (87)
1.769 (25)
1.666 (17)
41
Mississippi St
2-2
1.218
3
0.267 (51)
0.531 (68)
1.694 (31)
1.095 (35)
42
Toledo
3-0
1.163
-2
-1.28 (125)
1.038 (49)
1.711 (28)
0.485 (56)
43
Georgia Tech
3-1
1.158
10
0.382 (40)
1.408 (37)
1.295 (51)
0.763 (46)
44
California
2-2
1.154
-3
1.119 (11)
1.209 (42)
1.511 (42)
0.604 (50)
45
Oklahoma St
2-2
1.132
-11
0.254 (53)
0.306 (79)
1.531 (39)
1.232 (32)
46
Minnesota
3-0
1.118
5
-0.66 (112)
1.832 (24)
1.080 (60)
0.597 (51)
47
Pittsburgh
2-2
1.101
0
0.676 (24)
0.757 (62)
1.519 (40)
0.785 (45)
48
Texas Tech
2-1
1.100
0
-0.08 (74)
0.901 (53)
1.336 (49)
0.925 (41)
49
Texas
2-1
1.078
-7
0.298 (48)
0.818 (59)
1.263 (52)
1.023 (39)
50
Colorado
3-1
1.075
10
0.479 (34)
1.381 (39)
1.142 (56)
0.734 (47)
51
BYU
1-3
1.056
-5
1.397 (6)
0.468 (71)
1.511 (43)
0.884 (43)
52
Washington St
1-2
0.957
3
-0.05 (70)
0.879 (54)
1.354 (48)
0.455 (57)
53
Kansas St
2-1
0.941
4
-0.28 (92)
0.977 (51)
1.211 (55)
0.529 (52)
54
Cincinnati
3-1
0.918
0
-0.16 (82)
1.423 (36)
1.130 (57)
0.211 (59)
55
Air Force
3-0
0.916
4
-1.14 (123)
1.164 (46)
1.056 (62)
0.517 (53)
56
Wake Forest
4-0
0.898
17
-0.12 (78)
1.868 (23)
0.883 (70)
0.137 (63)
57
NC State
2-1
0.886
-1
-0.80 (118)
0.275 (83)
1.395 (46)
0.655 (49)
58
Appalachian St
2-2
0.859
10
0.790 (18)
1.201 (43)
1.088 (59)
0.259 (58)
59
WKU
2-2
0.852
-24
0.391 (38)
0.439 (74)
1.331 (50)
0.506 (54)
60
Penn St
2-2
0.809
-8
0.794 (17)
0.457 (72)
1.230 (53)
0.495 (55)
61
Troy
3-1
0.745
15
-0.42 (99)
1.391 (38)
0.880 (72)
0.032 (68)
62
Duke
2-2
0.693
16
0.228 (57)
0.810 (60)
1.079 (61)
0.053 (66)
63
Maryland
3-0
0.677
1
-1.91 (128)
0.903 (52)
0.904 (69)
0.172 (61)
64
Northwestern
1-3
0.672
-3
0.541 (29)
0.525 (69)
1.228 (54)
0.002 (71)
65
Southern Miss
3-1
0.660
9
-0.98 (121)
0.844 (56)
0.880 (73)
0.200 (60)
66
Ga Southern
3-1
0.652
-8
-0.92 (120)
1.075 (48)
0.964 (65)
-0.13 (77)
67
Tulsa
3-1
0.643
2
0.062 (63)
1.188 (44)
0.874 (74)
-0.12 (75)
68
Missouri
2-2
0.601
4
-0.60 (109)
0.497 (70)
0.984 (63)
0.141 (62)
69
Indiana
2-1
0.594
-7
-0.40 (98)
0.819 (58)
0.867 (75)
0.024 (69)
70
C Michigan
3-1
0.567
-20
-0.57 (107)
0.570 (67)
0.948 (66)
0.023 (70)
71
Vanderbilt
2-2
0.542
9
0.747 (21)
0.740 (63)
0.834 (76)
-0.03 (72)
72
Temple
2-2
0.529
-9
-0.71 (114)
-0.02 (95)
1.127 (58)
0.129 (64)
73
South Carolina
2-2
0.503
-8
0.751 (20)
0.622 (65)
0.881 (71)
-0.12 (76)
74
Arizona
2-2
0.488
-8
-0.32 (94)
0.119 (91)
0.967 (64)
0.104 (65)
75
MTSU
3-1
0.476
2
-0.72 (115)
0.875 (55)
0.615 (84)
-0.04 (73)
76
East Carolina
2-2
0.418
-9
0.411 (37)
0.429 (76)
0.904 (68)
-0.27 (79)
77
Boston College
2-2
0.383
8
-0.25 (90)
0.041 (92)
0.815 (77)
0.045 (67)
78
Louisiana Tech
1-3
0.343
-7
0.439 (36)
-0.17 (100)
0.934 (67)
-0.07 (74)
79
Syracuse
2-2
0.304
11
0.539 (30)
0.820 (57)
0.728 (80)
-0.71 (82)
80
Kentucky
2-2
0.228
13
0.157 (60)
0.366 (77)
0.556 (88)
-0.34 (80)
81
Utah St
2-2
0.210
-11
-0.07 (73)
-0.09 (98)
0.729 (79)
-0.27 (78)
82
Akron
2-2
0.145
-7
0.296 (49)
0.656 (64)
0.626 (83)
-0.94 (92)
83
Bowling Green
1-3
0.103
0
0.989 (13)
0.289 (80)
0.701 (81)
-0.89 (91)
84
Rutgers
2-2
0.102
-2
-0.37 (97)
0.273 (84)
0.581 (85)
-0.71 (84)
85
Virginia
1-3
0.070
12
0.366 (42)
-0.07 (97)
0.743 (78)
-0.76 (85)
86
Connecticut
2-2
0.052
-5
-0.14 (80)
0.162 (90)
0.531 (90)
-0.71 (83)
87
Ohio
2-2
-0.01
7
-0.30 (93)
-0.00 (94)
0.558 (87)
-0.84 (88)
88
Army
3-1
-0.02
-4
-0.67 (113)
0.209 (88)
0.425 (91)
-0.85 (89)
89
Colorado St
2-2
-0.03
-3
-0.33 (95)
0.251 (85)
0.334 (94)
-0.77 (86)
90
Marshall
1-2
-0.05
-11
-0.51 (103)
-0.29 (102)
0.546 (89)
-0.69 (81)
91
Purdue
2-1
-0.07
8
-0.64 (111)
0.433 (75)
0.411 (92)
-1.15 (94)
92
Illinois
1-2
-0.08
0
-0.25 (89)
-0.34 (108)
0.567 (86)
-0.81 (87)
93
Iowa St
1-3
-0.09
12
0.624 (27)
-0.32 (106)
0.699 (82)
-1.04 (93)
94
Ball St
3-1
-0.13
4
-0.46 (101)
0.595 (66)
0.264 (96)
-1.28 (101)
95
Tulane
2-2
-0.19
6
-0.26 (91)
0.442 (73)
0.166 (102)
-1.21 (96)
96
SMU
2-2
-0.22
0
0.302 (47)
0.280 (81)
0.169 (101)
-1.18 (95)
97
Oregon St
1-2
-0.23
-2
-0.08 (75)
-0.33 (107)
0.286 (95)
-0.87 (90)
98
Nevada
2-2
-0.25
-7
-0.11 (77)
0.337 (78)
0.220 (99)
-1.42 (103)
99
N Illinois
0-4
-0.33
-12
0.523 (32)
-0.53 (111)
0.404 (93)
-1.21 (97)
100
San Jose St
1-3
-0.40
-11
0.231 (55)
-0.31 (104)
0.224 (98)
-1.37 (102)
101
New Mexico
1-2
-0.43
-1
-0.87 (119)
-0.48 (110)
0.177 (100)
-1.25 (99)
102
Arkansas St
0-4
-0.45
-14
0.462 (35)
-0.74 (118)
0.256 (97)
-1.21 (98)
103
Georgia St
0-3
-0.46
0
1.048 (12)
-0.15 (99)
0.111 (103)
-1.51 (104)
104
UCF
2-2
-0.49
4
-0.15 (81)
-0.31 (105)
-0.05 (105)
-1.27 (100)
105
South Alabama
2-2
-0.51
-3
-0.14 (79)
0.239 (86)
0.022 (104)
-1.89 (109)
106
ULL
2-2
-0.57
0
-0.35 (96)
0.024 (93)
-0.11 (106)
-1.70 (106)
107
Wyoming
2-2
-0.76
-3
-0.50 (102)
-0.25 (101)
-0.34 (114)
-1.77 (108)
108
Texas St
1-2
-0.81
2
1.517 (3)
0.277 (82)
-0.28 (111)
-2.43 (119)
109
Idaho
2-2
-0.85
7
0.240 (54)
0.190 (89)
-0.31 (112)
-2.45 (121)
110
FL Atlantic
1-3
-0.90
-1
0.306 (45)
-0.42 (109)
-0.27 (110)
-2.18 (115)
111
E Michigan
3-1
-0.94
9
-1.71 (127)
-0.04 (96)
-0.61 (122)
-2.12 (113)
112
ULM
1-2
-0.94
3
0.196 (58)
-0.59 (114)
-0.33 (113)
-2.09 (112)
113
Massachusetts
1-3
-0.94
0
0.292 (50)
-0.89 (121)
-0.19 (107)
-2.06 (111)
114
UNLV
1-3
-0.98
-7
-0.60 (108)
-1.15 (124)
-0.35 (115)
-1.74 (107)
115
Kansas
1-2
-1.00
3
-0.61 (110)
-1.20 (125)
-0.40 (117)
-1.68 (105)
116
Buffalo
1-2
-1.00
7
-0.57 (106)
-0.29 (103)
-0.24 (108)
-2.65 (125)
117
Old Dominion
2-2
-1.01
7
-0.55 (105)
-0.57 (112)
-0.42 (118)
-2.21 (116)
118
Fresno St
1-3
-1.05
-6
0.032 (64)
-0.83 (120)
-0.40 (116)
-2.17 (114)
119
Miami OH
0-4
-1.08
3
0.600 (28)
-1.02 (123)
-0.24 (109)
-2.32 (117)
120
Kent
1-3
-1.09
-3
0.305 (46)
-0.57 (113)
-0.45 (119)
-2.43 (118)
121
Hawaii
1-3
-1.17
0
0.516 (33)
-0.63 (116)
-0.47 (120)
-2.59 (122)
122
UT San Antonio
1-3
-1.24
-11
-0.79 (116)
-1.43 (126)
-0.57 (121)
-2.05 (110)
123
UTEP
1-3
-1.30
-4
-0.08 (76)
-0.68 (117)
-0.74 (126)
-2.60 (124)
124
North Texas
2-2
-1.38
1
-0.79 (117)
-0.83 (119)
-0.84 (128)
-2.60 (123)
125
New Mexico St
1-3
-1.47
0
-0.04 (68)
-0.61 (115)
-0.78 (127)
-3.12 (127)
126
Rice
0-4
-1.52
-12
0.375 (41)
-1.94 (127)
-0.63 (123)
-2.44 (120)
127
Charlotte
1-3
-1.56
-2
0.003 (66)
-0.99 (122)
-0.72 (125)
-3.21 (128)
128
Florida Intl
0-4
-1.66
-3
-0.19 (84)
-2.00 (128)
-0.64 (124)
-2.85 (126)

Top Conferences in College Football – Top to Bottom

The “top to bottom” approach gives the simple average of the rating for every team in the conference. In my opinion, this is the best and most unbiased way to rank conferences.

Rank Conference Rating
1
SEC
1.595
2
PAC12
1.301
3
ACC
1.297
4
BIG10
1.186
5
BIG12
1.076
6
INDEP
0.794
7
AAC
0.719
8
MWC
-0.08
9
MAC
-0.17
10
SUNBELT
-0.34
11
CUSA
-0.83
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