NCAA FBS (1-A) College Football Ratings


NCAA FBS College Football Computer Ratings

Below are listed the current NCAA FBS college football ratings as computed by the Donchess Inference Index.
More information on how these NCAA computer ratings are computed can be found on the Methodology page and we do our predictions on each game at College Football game predicitons.

DII Rating– This is a NCAA football ratings system that is a combination of the Standard Rating and the Aegis Rating. The Aegis Rating is weighted more highly in the beginning of the season whereas the Standard Rating is weighted more highly at the end of the season. This is the final rating that is used to rank the teams. We also use the Vegas Rating to help create our preseason rankings, but these place a much lesser roll as the season goes on.

Standard Rating– Looks at game outcome, date and score differential only. Record is the most important factor in this rating system. Further, this rating system is heavily based on the outcomes of games in the current season and is totally based on that come season end. This rating has the least amount of bias and shows what teams are “most politically correct” to make the top 4 playoff.

Aegis Rating– Replacing the Inference Rating, this uses mostly the same the same criteria as the Standard Rating, but heavily weighs the margin of victory of the game. Data from previous seasons weighs into this algorithm (especially, early in the season). This is system is a much better predictor of future game outcomes.

Vegas Rating– This is our newest rating. The Vegas rating takes into account what the Vegas line on each game is. More recent games are weighed the most heavily, and outcome and score differential are also of factor. This rating system is also a very good predictor of future outcomes. Overall, this rating tells us which teams are the best regardless of win-loss record.

It’s also important to note that the ratings early in the season are very unstable as there is not a lot of data on the games yet.

Final 2015-2016 Season: Updated 1/12/2016.

FBS College Football Rankings

Rank Team Rec Rating Chg SOS (Rank) Standard (Rank) Aegis (Rank) Vegas (Rank)
1
Alabama
14-1
3.557
1
1.498 (1)
3.824 (1)
3.220 (1)
3.652 (1)
2
Ohio St
12-1
3.206
2
0.772 (48)
3.103 (4)
2.896 (2)
3.434 (2)
3
Clemson
14-1
2.852
-2
1.066 (20)
3.492 (2)
2.522 (6)
2.795 (3)
4
Oklahoma
11-2
2.742
-1
1.100 (17)
2.928 (5)
2.542 (5)
2.788 (4)
5
TCU
11-2
2.653
4
0.773 (47)
2.815 (8)
2.661 (3)
2.584 (7)
6
Stanford
12-2
2.651
2
1.160 (12)
2.817 (7)
2.496 (8)
2.677 (6)
7
Baylor
10-3
2.538
5
0.601 (60)
2.251 (17)
2.475 (9)
2.691 (5)
8
Mississippi
10-3
2.527
2
1.047 (22)
2.826 (6)
2.563 (4)
2.386 (8)
9
Michigan St
12-2
2.491
-4
1.183 (10)
3.111 (3)
2.442 (10)
2.272 (12)
10
LSU
9-3
2.337
7
1.239 (8)
2.558 (10)
2.280 (13)
2.283 (10)
11
Notre Dame
10-3
2.326
-5
1.160 (13)
2.5 (11)
2.147 (17)
2.364 (9)
12
Oregon
9-4
2.256
7
1.087 (18)
2.142 (24)
2.505 (7)
2.152 (16)
13
Tennessee
9-4
2.188
9
0.954 (31)
2.274 (16)
2.167 (15)
2.167 (15)
14
Michigan
10-3
2.187
-1
0.940 (35)
2.462 (12)
1.897 (23)
2.252 (13)
15
Georgia
10-3
2.183
11
0.700 (52)
2.228 (18)
2.248 (14)
2.126 (17)
16
Arkansas
8-5
2.165
5
1.303 (4)
2.228 (19)
2.298 (12)
2.060 (18)
17
Florida St
10-3
2.129
-6
0.636 (56)
1.960 (25)
2.161 (16)
2.177 (14)
18
USC
8-6
2.108
10
1.348 (2)
1.695 (33)
2.102 (18)
2.276 (11)
19
Mississippi St
9-4
2.029
8
1.062 (21)
2.223 (20)
2.368 (11)
1.748 (22)
20
Wisconsin
10-3
1.943
5
0.494 (62)
2.175 (23)
2.065 (19)
1.777 (21)
21
North Carolina
11-3
1.868
-5
0.576 (61)
1.882 (27)
1.676 (33)
1.977 (19)
22
Iowa
12-2
1.866
-15
0.704 (51)
2.751 (9)
1.794 (27)
1.556 (25)
23
Utah
10-3
1.816
7
0.997 (26)
1.921 (26)
1.940 (21)
1.700 (24)
24
Texas A&M
8-5
1.777
5
1.083 (19)
1.763 (29)
1.878 (24)
1.723 (23)
25
UCLA
8-5
1.756
10
0.994 (28)
1.394 (42)
1.898 (22)
1.817 (20)
26
Oklahoma St
10-3
1.731
-12
0.819 (45)
2.356 (15)
1.760 (30)
1.464 (27)
27
Auburn
7-6
1.712
13
1.300 (5)
1.882 (28)
2.034 (20)
1.451 (28)
28
Florida
10-4
1.634
-4
1.103 (16)
2.196 (21)
1.797 (26)
1.312 (31)
29
Houston
13-1
1.613
-14
-0.13 (88)
2.398 (13)
1.482 (43)
1.378 (30)
30
West Virginia
8-5
1.585
4
0.951 (33)
1.721 (32)
1.837 (25)
1.380 (29)
31
California
8-5
1.578
6
1.104 (15)
1.672 (34)
1.576 (38)
1.541 (26)
32
Navy
11-2
1.482
-14
0.000 (79)
2.192 (22)
1.490 (41)
1.193 (34)
33
Washington
7-6
1.408
15
0.947 (34)
1.287 (45)
1.775 (28)
1.236 (33)
34
Louisville
8-5
1.388
13
0.845 (44)
1.586 (36)
1.693 (32)
1.125 (38)
35
Memphis
9-4
1.382
-12
0.238 (68)
1.562 (37)
1.588 (37)
1.187 (35)
36
Arizona St
6-7
1.326
13
1.017 (24)
1.061 (53)
1.772 (29)
1.164 (37)
37
Northwestern
10-3
1.323
-17
0.912 (38)
2.389 (14)
1.435 (47)
0.830 (46)
38
Nebraska
6-7
1.291
12
0.862 (43)
1.266 (47)
1.674 (34)
1.071 (39)
39
W Kentucky
11-2
1.269
-1
-0.26 (96)
1.626 (35)
1.417 (49)
1.037 (41)
40
BYU
9-4
1.234
1
0.387 (66)
1.275 (46)
1.486 (42)
1.066 (40)
41
Boise St
9-4
1.189
28
-0.27 (100)
0.559 (72)
1.490 (40)
1.261 (32)
42
Texas Tech
7-6
1.168
-9
1.046 (23)
1.753 (31)
1.337 (53)
0.833 (45)
43
Washington St
9-4
1.166
1
0.761 (50)
1.757 (30)
1.392 (52)
0.793 (49)
44
Penn St
7-6
1.155
-1
0.874 (41)
1.335 (43)
1.320 (54)
0.985 (42)
45
Georgia Tech
3-9
1.128
21
1.005 (25)
0.213 (84)
1.661 (35)
1.174 (36)
46
Pittsburgh
8-5
1.128
-10
0.953 (32)
1.471 (41)
1.402 (50)
0.826 (47)
47
Miami FL
8-5
1.128
-15
0.892 (40)
1.535 (38)
1.454 (46)
0.769 (50)
48
Toledo
10-2
1.102
-3
-0.05 (83)
1.51 (39)
1.433 (48)
0.740 (51)
49
Texas
5-7
1.033
-3
1.224 (9)
1.502 (40)
1.456 (45)
0.591 (53)
50
Bowling Green
10-4
0.999
-11
0.167 (70)
1.174 (50)
1.090 (63)
0.874 (43)
51
Arizona
7-6
0.996
11
0.660 (53)
0.945 (56)
1.532 (39)
0.695 (52)
52
Kansas St
6-7
0.992
0
0.903 (39)
1.177 (49)
1.706 (31)
0.490 (56)
53
Virginia Tech
7-6
0.975
1
0.636 (57)
0.791 (63)
1.396 (51)
0.797 (48)
54
Missouri
5-7
0.966
3
0.872 (42)
0.956 (55)
1.620 (36)
0.579 (55)
55
NC State
7-6
0.948
-2
0.470 (63)
0.760 (64)
1.215 (59)
0.862 (44)
56
Temple
10-4
0.883
-25
0.063 (77)
1.265 (48)
1.123 (62)
0.585 (54)
57
Minnesota
6-7
0.781
1
0.982 (29)
1.107 (52)
1.297 (55)
0.342 (59)
58
Duke
8-5
0.778
1
0.263 (67)
0.917 (58)
1.291 (56)
0.415 (58)
59
Appalachian St
11-2
0.749
-4
-0.78 (127)
1.293 (44)
0.848 (79)
0.471 (57)
60
San Diego St
11-3
0.698
3
-0.43 (109)
1.001 (54)
1.169 (61)
0.295 (61)
61
Marshall
10-3
0.682
6
-0.82 (128)
0.824 (62)
1.467 (44)
0.155 (66)
62
Louisiana Tech
9-4
0.681
13
-0.43 (110)
0.829 (61)
1.200 (60)
0.309 (60)
63
Ga Southern
9-4
0.679
9
-0.32 (106)
0.883 (59)
1.244 (58)
0.259 (63)
64
W Michigan
8-5
0.665
-8
0.110 (73)
1.112 (51)
1.055 (66)
0.253 (64)
65
Cincinnati
7-6
0.578
-14
-0.00 (80)
0.644 (69)
1.062 (65)
0.260 (62)
66
South Carolina
3-9
0.511
13
1.133 (14)
0.436 (76)
1.264 (57)
0.088 (68)
67
Indiana
6-7
0.456
-7
0.780 (46)
0.725 (66)
0.910 (74)
0.075 (69)
68
N Illinois
8-6
0.441
-3
-0.14 (89)
0.434 (77)
1.008 (69)
0.104 (67)
69
Air Force
8-6
0.362
12
-0.11 (87)
0.405 (78)
0.955 (71)
-0.00 (70)
70
Illinois
5-7
0.358
-6
0.916 (37)
0.933 (57)
0.851 (77)
-0.16 (75)
71
Virginia
4-8
0.333
9
0.995 (27)
0.382 (80)
1.041 (67)
-0.11 (73)
72
Kentucky
5-7
0.323
10
0.604 (59)
0.634 (70)
0.981 (70)
-0.19 (77)
73
South Florida
8-5
0.318
-31
-0.29 (101)
0.456 (74)
0.480 (91)
0.166 (65)
74
Maryland
3-9
0.302
0
1.240 (7)
0.450 (75)
1.030 (68)
-0.19 (76)
75
Arkansas St
9-4
0.297
-14
-0.48 (115)
0.863 (60)
0.778 (81)
-0.21 (79)
76
Utah St
6-7
0.282
8
0.083 (76)
0.128 (85)
0.954 (72)
-0.05 (72)
77
Vanderbilt
4-8
0.264
-1
0.931 (36)
0.705 (68)
0.667 (83)
-0.15 (74)
78
Iowa St
3-9
0.222
-10
1.315 (3)
0.740 (65)
0.928 (73)
-0.40 (83)
79
Southern Miss
9-5
0.196
-9
-0.51 (116)
0.724 (67)
0.591 (85)
-0.25 (80)
80
East Carolina
5-7
0.181
-2
0.125 (72)
0.066 (87)
0.897 (75)
-0.20 (78)
81
Boston College
3-9
0.160
11
0.408 (65)
-0.68 (106)
1.071 (64)
-0.04 (71)
82
C Michigan
7-6
0.157
-11
-0.04 (82)
0.520 (73)
0.798 (80)
-0.37 (81)
83
Ohio
8-5
0.035
-6
-0.30 (103)
0.568 (71)
0.542 (90)
-0.48 (85)
84
MTSU
7-6
0.010
-1
-0.27 (98)
0.297 (81)
0.572 (86)
-0.44 (84)
85
Rutgers
4-8
-0.01
2
0.659 (54)
0.223 (83)
0.871 (76)
-0.64 (87)
86
Colorado
4-9
-0.01
4
0.605 (58)
-0.10 (94)
0.668 (82)
-0.38 (82)
87
Syracuse
4-8
-0.12
-1
0.649 (55)
0.033 (88)
0.563 (88)
-0.59 (86)
88
Colorado St
7-6
-0.14
1
-0.60 (123)
-0.06 (92)
0.850 (78)
-0.77 (88)
89
Purdue
2-10
-0.27
2
0.967 (30)
-0.10 (93)
0.571 (87)
-0.85 (91)
90
Akron
8-5
-0.31
-2
-0.56 (118)
0.294 (82)
0.391 (92)
-0.97 (94)
91
Connecticut
6-7
-0.33
-18
0.184 (69)
0.396 (79)
0.203 (96)
-0.94 (93)
92
Oregon St
2-10
-0.33
5
1.161 (11)
-0.34 (98)
0.608 (84)
-0.89 (92)
93
San Jose St
6-7
-0.35
2
-0.18 (92)
-0.06 (91)
0.274 (94)
-0.85 (90)
94
Wake Forest
3-9
-0.41
-1
0.765 (49)
-0.34 (97)
0.223 (95)
-0.82 (89)
95
Nevada
7-6
-0.42
4
-0.46 (113)
-0.14 (95)
0.549 (89)
-1.11 (96)
96
Tulsa
6-7
-0.44
-11
0.062 (78)
0.098 (86)
0.105 (100)
-0.98 (95)
97
New Mexico
7-6
-0.66
-3
-0.60 (122)
-0.01 (89)
0.108 (99)
-1.38 (98)
98
Buffalo
5-7
-0.70
0
-0.43 (111)
-0.46 (101)
0.146 (98)
-1.30 (97)
99
Troy
4-8
-0.87
1
-0.18 (91)
-0.35 (99)
-0.07 (108)
-1.55 (99)
100
Florida Intl
5-7
-0.88
2
-0.59 (121)
-0.50 (102)
0.048 (104)
-1.58 (100)
101
Rice
5-7
-0.94
3
-0.57 (119)
-0.63 (104)
0.289 (93)
-1.80 (101)
102
South Alabama
5-7
-0.98
-1
-0.30 (104)
-0.03 (90)
0.034 (106)
-1.97 (108)
103
Ball St
3-9
-1.05
0
-0.06 (84)
-0.83 (109)
0.060 (103)
-1.80 (101)
104
FL Atlantic
3-9
-1.09
2
-0.27 (99)
-0.81 (108)
-0.02 (107)
-1.85 (104)
105
ULL
4-8
-1.12
5
-0.68 (125)
-0.79 (107)
0.066 (102)
-1.96 (107)
106
Georgia St
6-7
-1.13
-10
-0.52 (117)
-0.24 (96)
-0.24 (114)
-2.02 (109)
107
Massachusetts
3-9
-1.17
2
-0.24 (94)
-1.02 (119)
-0.15 (112)
-1.83 (103)
108
Fresno St
3-9
-1.22
9
0.092 (75)
-0.90 (112)
0.043 (105)
-2.10 (110)
109
UNLV
3-9
-1.22
6
-0.09 (86)
-0.93 (115)
-0.25 (115)
-1.92 (105)
110
Kent
3-9
-1.23
-2
-0.30 (102)
-0.87 (111)
-0.26 (117)
-1.96 (106)
111
UT San Antonio
3-9
-1.27
2
-0.31 (105)
-0.90 (113)
-0.09 (109)
-2.13 (112)
112
Army
2-10
-1.40
9
-0.44 (112)
-1.51 (125)
-0.12 (111)
-2.13 (111)
113
Texas St
3-9
-1.42
5
-0.47 (114)
-0.98 (117)
-0.24 (113)
-2.31 (115)
114
Tulane
3-9
-1.45
-3
-0.01 (81)
-1.01 (118)
-0.25 (115)
-2.34 (116)
115
SMU
2-10
-1.46
-10
0.441 (64)
-0.94 (116)
-0.53 (124)
-2.22 (113)
116
Hawaii
3-10
-1.48
6
-0.06 (85)
-1.22 (121)
-0.30 (119)
-2.29 (114)
117
Idaho
4-8
-1.51
-10
-0.24 (93)
-0.40 (100)
-0.53 (125)
-2.54 (118)
118
Old Dominion
5-7
-1.54
-6
-0.72 (126)
-0.63 (105)
-0.30 (118)
-2.64 (120)
119
UTEP
5-7
-1.57
-5
-0.64 (124)
-0.63 (103)
-0.10 (110)
-2.82 (124)
120
Kansas
0-12
-1.60
-1
1.265 (6)
-1.37 (123)
0.092 (101)
-2.71 (122)
121
Miami OH
3-9
-1.60
-5
-0.25 (95)
-1.02 (120)
-0.39 (120)
-2.56 (119)
122
UCF
0-12
-1.69
3
0.146 (71)
-2.44 (128)
0.171 (97)
-2.51 (117)
123
Wyoming
2-10
-1.77
0
-0.16 (90)
-1.34 (122)
-0.48 (123)
-2.71 (122)
124
ULM
2-11
-1.77
1
-0.26 (97)
-1.51 (124)
-0.45 (122)
-2.67 (121)
125
New Mexico St
3-9
-1.90
-5
-0.36 (108)
-0.91 (114)
-0.74 (127)
-3.00 (125)
126
Charlotte
2-10
-1.95
-2
-0.57 (120)
-0.86 (110)
-0.42 (121)
-3.30 (126)
127
North Texas
1-11
-2.29
-2
0.098 (74)
-1.58 (126)
-0.68 (126)
-3.53 (128)
128
E Michigan
1-11
-2.45
-3
-0.34 (107)
-2.02 (127)
-1.02 (128)
-3.49 (127)

Top Conferences in College Football – Top to Bottom

The “top to bottom” approach gives the simple average of the rating for every team in the conference. In my opinion, this is the best and most unbiased way to rank conferences.

Rank Conference Rating
1
SEC
1.727
2
PAC12
1.392
3
BIG12
1.306
4
BIG10
1.219
5
ACC
1.020
6
INDEP
0.716
7
AAC
0.088
8
MWC
-0.39
9
MAC
-0.42
10
CUSA
-0.79
11
SUNBELT
-0.82
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