MLB Baseball Predictions


Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only. If you do wish to gamble on baseball then I highly suggest reading my blog post: The Top 5 Online Sportsbooks for U.S. Players.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.

All upcoming MLB baseball predictions are listed below. There, you will find the odds of winning, predicted score and estimated money line. We hope you enjoy.

Today’s MLB Game Predictions – Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019

Time Teams Prob Pitchers Lines – Updated 5/22 @ 5:37 pm Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
Over/Under
1:10 PM Athletics Frankie Montas
-125
-130
-125
o9½ +100
40.7%
4.29
9.46
Indians Jefry Rodriguez
+115
+110
+115
u9½ -110
59.3%
5.17
1:10 PM Reds Luis Castillo
-104
-103
-105
o7½ -105
41.6%
2.66
5.81
Brewers Zach Davies
-106
-117
-105
u7½ -105
58.4%
3.14
1:15 PM Royals Brad Keller
+163
+164
+168
o9½ +100
38.3%
3.23
7.31
Cardinals Michael Wacha
-173
-189
-178
u9½ -110
61.7%
4.08
2:05 PM Mariners Marco Gonzales
-118
-120
-117
o11½ -110
63.2%
5.44
9.61
Rangers Jesse Chavez
+108
+100
+107
u11½ +100
36.8%
4.17
3:40 PM D-backs Merrill Kelly
+122
+115
+125
o7½ -112
51.5%
3.77
7.44
Padres Eric Lauer
-132
-135
-135
u7½ +102
48.5%
3.66
7:05 PM Yankees CC Sabathia
-237
-260
-235
o10½ +105
69.9%
5.57
9.29
Orioles Dan Straily
+218
+220
+215
u10½ -115
30.1%
3.72
7:05 PM Rockies Jon Gray
-110
-115
-113
o8 -105
54.9%
3.72
7.10
Pirates Montana DuRapau
+100
-105
+103
u8 -105
45.1%
3.37
7:07 PM Red Sox Rick Porcello
-147
-155
-146
o9 -110
56.9%
4.36
8.17
Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez
+137
+135
+136
u9 +100
43.1%
3.80
7:10 PM Dodgers Rich Hill
-124
-127
-118
o8 -110
49.9%
3.77
7.55
Rays Ryne Stanek
+114
+107
+108
u8 +100
50.1%
3.78
7:10 PM Marlins Jose Urena
+102
+102
+100
o9 -110
45.5%
3.70
7.75
Tigers Daniel Norris
-112
-122
-110
u9 +100
54.5%
4.05
7:10 PM Nationals Max Scherzer
-117
-123
-115
o6½ +105
46.2%
2.41
5.02
Mets Jacob deGrom
+107
+103
+105
u6½ -115
53.8%
2.60
7:45 PM Royals Homer Bailey
+169
+163
+163
o9½ +105
31.4%
3.34
8.21
Cardinals Adam Wainwright
-179
-188
-173
u9½ -115
68.6%
4.86
8:05 PM Phillies Cole Irvin
+153
+147
+157
o10½ -115
39.8%
3.68
8.20
Cubs Cole Hamels
-163
-172
-167
u10½ +105
60.2%
4.51
8:10 PM White Sox Ivan Nova
+300
+280
+295
o8½ +100
24.7%
2.74
7.35
Astros Gerrit Cole
-340
-360
-325
u8½ -110
75.3%
4.60
9:07 PM Twins Martin Perez
-127
-132
-119
o9 -105
50%
4.35
8.70
Angels Matt Harvey
+117
+112
+109
u9 -105
50%
4.35
9:45 PM Braves Max Fried
-159
-168
-157
o7½ +100
55.3%
3.60
6.84
Giants Jeff Samardzija
+149
+144
+147
u7½ -110
44.7%
3.23

Today’s MLB Picks and Game Analysis

Below are a few advanced metrics on the games played today. If there is an orange check mark in the “More Info” section of the game summary, then there is at least one bet in the game that we would recommend.

Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Indians Game Analysis

Time: 1:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Oakland Athletics 24-23 10 -0.68 4.72 4.3 Matchup and Bet Value
Cleveland Indians 25-22 12 -3.86 3.96 3.77
Starting Pitchers: Frankie Montas OAK (4-2 2.78 ERA), Jefry Rodriguez CLE (1-2 2.92 ERA)

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Game Analysis

Time: 1:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Cincinnati Reds 22-26 22 -4.33 4 3.44 Matchup and Bet Value
Milwaukee Brewers 28-22 3 4.5 4.78 4.56
Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo CIN (5-1 1.9 ERA), Zach Davies MIL (5-0 1.54 ERA)

Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals Game Analysis

Time: 1:15 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Kansas City Royals 16-31 27 -10.06 4.45 5.21 Matchup and Bet Value
St. Louis Cardinals 24-23 6 -0.19 5.04 4.62
Starting Pitchers: Brad Keller KC (2-4 4.47 ERA), Michael Wacha STL (3-1 4.93 ERA)

Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers Game Analysis

Time: 2:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Seattle Mariners 21-28 19 -8.14 5.22 6.04 Matchup and Bet Value
Texas Rangers 23-23 23 4.15 5.85 5.57
Starting Pitchers: Marco Gonzales SEA (5-2 3.18 ERA), Jesse Chavez TEX (0-1 6.2 ERA)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Game Analysis

Time: 3:40 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Arizona Diamondbacks 25-24 18 2.41 4.98 4.45 Matchup and Bet Value
San Diego Padres 25-24 21 0.35 3.73 4.18
Starting Pitchers: Merrill Kelly ARI (3-4 4.7 ERA), Eric Lauer SD (2-4 5.24 ERA)

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Game Analysis

Time: 7:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
New York Yankees 30-17 8 4.08 5.26 4.02 Matchup and Bet Value
Baltimore Orioles 15-33 30 -6.78 3.9 6.08
Starting Pitchers: CC Sabathia NYY (2-1 3.26 ERA), Dan Straily BAL (1-3 8.51 ERA)

Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Game Analysis

Time: 7:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Colorado Rockies 21-25 17 -4.6 5.04 5.13 Matchup and Bet Value
Pittsburgh Pirates 24-21 14 3.8 3.76 4.73
Starting Pitchers: Jon Gray COL (3-3 4.25 ERA), Montana DuRapau PIT (0-0 1.93 ERA)

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Game Analysis

Time: 7:07 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Boston Red Sox 25-23 5 -6.39 5.27 4.75 Matchup and Bet Value
Toronto Blue Jays 20-28 24 -5.53 3.77 4.35
Starting Pitchers: Rick Porcello BOS (3-3 5.15 ERA), Aaron Sanchez TOR (3-4 3.75 ERA)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Game Analysis

Time: 7:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Los Angeles Dodgers 32-17 2 3.61 5.22 3.82 Matchup and Bet Value
Tampa Bay Rays 27-18 4 2.14 4.4 3.29
Starting Pitchers: Rich Hill LAD (0-1 4.2 ERA), Ryne Stanek TB (0-1 2.45 ERA)

Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers Game Analysis

Time: 7:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Miami Marlins 14-31 29 -8.99 2.73 4.69 Matchup and Bet Value
Detroit Tigers 18-27 28 -4.45 3.33 5.33
Starting Pitchers: Jose Urena MIA (1-6 4.44 ERA), Daniel Norris DET (2-1 3.63 ERA)

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Game Analysis

Time: 7:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Washington Nationals 19-29 16 -12.26 4.46 5.15 Matchup and Bet Value
New York Mets 22-25 15 -6.3 4.47 4.89
Starting Pitchers: Max Scherzer WAS (2-4 3.64 ERA), Jacob deGrom NYM (3-4 3.26 ERA)

Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals Game Analysis

Time: 7:45 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Kansas City Royals 16-31 27 -10.06 4.45 5.21 Matchup and Bet Value
St. Louis Cardinals 24-23 6 -0.19 5.04 4.62
Starting Pitchers: Homer Bailey KC (4-4 5.36 ERA), Adam Wainwright STL (3-4 4.75 ERA)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Game Analysis

Time: 8:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Philadelphia Phillies 28-20 13 1.41 4.92 4.29 Matchup and Bet Value
Chicago Cubs 28-18 7 3.57 5.33 4.04
Starting Pitchers: Cole Irvin PHI (1-0 1.29 ERA), Cole Hamels CHC (3-0 3.08 ERA)

Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros Game Analysis

Time: 8:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Chicago White Sox 21-26 26 -1.9 4.26 5.19 Matchup and Bet Value
Houston Astros 33-16 1 3.39 5.43 3.41
Starting Pitchers: Ivan Nova CHW (2-3 6.29 ERA), Gerrit Cole HOU (4-4 3.88 ERA)

Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels Game Analysis

Time: 9:07 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Minnesota Twins 32-16 9 11.79 5.69 4 Matchup and Bet Value
Los Angeles Angels 22-26 20 -6.35 4.71 4.85
Starting Pitchers: Martin Perez MIN (5-1 3.11 ERA), Matt Harvey LAA (1-3 6.69 ERA)

Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Game Analysis

Time: 9:45 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Atlanta Braves 26-23 11 -0.31 4.86 4.69 Matchup and Bet Value
San Francisco Giants 21-26 25 -1.41 3.83 4.77
Starting Pitchers: Max Fried ATL (5-2 3.25 ERA), Jeff Samardzija SF (2-1 3.51 ERA)

Tomorrow’s MLB Game Predictions – Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019

Time (ET) Matchup Teams Prob Pitchers Money Line Prediction Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
1:10 PM Athletics vs. Indians Athletics Frankie Montas
+144
40.1%
3.53
7.83
Indians Jefry Rodriguez
-154
59.9%
4.30
1:10 PM Reds vs. Brewers Reds Luis Castillo
+129
42.7%
2.83
6.11
Brewers Zach Davies
-139
57.3%
3.27
1:15 PM Royals vs. Cardinals Royals Brad Keller
+154
38.5%
3.27
7.39
Cardinals Adam Wainwright
-164
61.5%
4.12
2:05 PM Mariners vs. Rangers Mariners Marco Gonzales
-158
60.6%
5.29
9.58
Rangers Adrian Sampson
+148
39.4%
4.28
3:40 PM D-backs vs. Padres D-backs Merrill Kelly
-107
50.6%
3.98
7.92
Padres Eric Lauer
-102
49.4%
3.93
7:05 PM Yankees vs. Orioles Yankees Undecided
-197
65.8%
5.23
9.04
Orioles Dan Straily
+187
34.2%
3.80
7:05 PM Rockies vs. Pirates Rockies Jon Gray
-125
54.6%
3.89
7.44
Pirates Undecided
+115
45.4%
3.55
7:07 PM Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Red Sox Undecided
-116
52.7%
4.25
8.28
Blue Jays Anibal Sanchez
+106
47.3%
4.03
7:10 PM Dodgers vs. Rays Dodgers Rich Hill
-117
53%
4.17
8.11
Rays Undecided
+107
47%
3.93
7:10 PM Marlins vs. Tigers Marlins Jose Urena
+113
45.8%
3.81
7.96
Tigers Daniel Norris
-123
54.2%
4.15
7:10 PM Nationals vs. Mets Nationals Max Scherzer
+115
45.4%
2.37
4.97
Mets Jacob deGrom
-125
54.6%
2.60
8:05 PM Phillies vs. Cubs Phillies Cole Irvin
+147
39.5%
2.85
6.37
Cubs Cole Hamels
-157
60.5%
3.52
8:10 PM White Sox vs. Astros White Sox Undecided
+300
24.7%
2.83
7.59
Astros Gerrit Cole
-310
75.3%
4.75
9:07 PM Twins vs. Angels Twins Martin Perez
-105
50.1%
4.20
8.41
Angels Matt Harvey
-104
49.9%
4.20
9:45 PM Braves vs. Giants Braves Max Fried
-132
56.1%
3.60
6.79
Giants Jeff Samardzija
+122
43.9%
3.18

Yesterday’s MLB Game Prediction Results

Date Teams SB Consensus DRatings Odds to Win1 Final Score Sportsbook Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
5/21 PHI +115 0.457 2 -0.60825 -0.61065
CHC -125 0.543 3
5/21 COL -110 0.593 5 -0.69315 -0.52256
PIT -110 0.407 0
5/21 WAS +115 0.413 5 -0.59313 -0.53273
NYM -135 0.587 6
5/21 CIN +125 0.341 3 -0.84657 -1.07587
MIL -145 0.659 0
5/21 ATL -130 0.585 3 -0.78251 -0.87948
SF +110 0.415 4
5/21 ARI -120 0.472 2 -0.7376 -0.63866
SD +100 0.528 3
5/21 OAK +120 0.469 5 -0.82564 -0.75715
CLE -140 0.531 3
5/21 NYY -225 0.69 11 -0.40649 -0.37106
BAL +188 0.31 4
5/21 BOS -145 0.601 3 -0.84657 -0.91879
TOR +125 0.399 10
5/21 SEA +148 0.511 3 -0.50587 -0.71539
TEX -158 0.489 5
5/21 CHW +281 0.203 1 -0.29077 -0.2269
HOU -350 0.797 5
5/21 MIN -110 0.402 8 -0.69315 -0.9113
LAA -110 0.598 3
5/21 MIA -105 0.49 5 -0.71505 -0.71335
DET -115 0.51 4
5/21 LAD -136 0.561 7 -0.56975 -0.57803
TB +126 0.439 3

Above are our results from each game yesterday. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.

MLB Season Prediction Results

Yesterday
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 14 6 6 2 0.5 -0.65104
DRatings 14 7 7 0 0.5 -0.67514
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 92 50 33 9 0.592 -0.65734
DRatings 92 54 38 0 0.587 -0.66816
Last Month
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 380 225 136 19 0.617 -0.66077
DRatings 380 225 154 1 0.593 -0.66622
2019
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 711 402 274 35 0.59 -0.67557
DRatings 711 417 293 1 0.587 -0.67832
All Time
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 3170 1826 1282 62 0.586 -0.67285
DRatings 3170 1818 1342 10 0.575 -0.67708

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against the sportsbook consensus. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks. Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this creiteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.