MLB Baseball Predictions

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only. If you do wish to gamble on baseball then I highly suggest reading my blog post: The Top 5 Online Sportsbooks for U.S. Players.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.

All upcoming MLB baseball predictions are listed below. There, you will find the odds of winning, predicted score and estimated money line. We hope you enjoy.

Today’s MLB Game Predictions – Sunday, October 28th, 2018

Time Teams Prob Pitchers Lines – Updated 10/28 @ 10:51 am Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
8:15 PM Red Sox David Price
o7½ +100
Dodgers Clayton Kershaw
u7½ -110
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Today’s MLB Picks and Game Analysis

Below are a few advanced metrics on the games played today. If there is an orange check mark in the “More Info” section of the game summary, then there is at least one bet in the game that we would recommend.

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Game Analysis

Time: 8:15 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Boston Red Sox 118-57 2 26.73 5.46 3.98 Matchup and Bet Value
Los Angeles Dodgers 99-78 4 -13.62 4.85 3.75
Starting Pitchers: David Price BOS (16-7 3.58 ERA), Clayton Kershaw LAD (9-5 2.73 ERA)

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Tomorrow’s MLB Game Predictions – Tuesday, October 30th, 2018

Time (ET) Matchup Teams Prob Pitchers Money Line Prediction Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
Game analysis not available yet

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Yesterday’s MLB Game Prediction Results

Date Teams DRatings Odds to Win1 Final Score Sportsbook Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
10/28 BOS +134 0.454 5 -0.86418 -0.78966
LAD -142 0.546 1

Above are our results from each game yesterday. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.

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MLB Season Prediction Results

Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 2459 1424 1008 27 0.585 -0.66886
DRatings 2459 1401 1049 9 0.572 -0.6745
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 1 0 1 0 0 -0.86418
DRatings 1 0 1 0 0 -0.78966
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 5 3 2 0 0.6 -0.6455
DRatings 5 3 2 0 0.6 -0.68086
Last Two Weeks
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 13 5 8 0 0.385 -0.71653
DRatings 13 6 7 0 0.462 -0.719

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against GTBets. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks (we used GTBets, but could have used anyone). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this creiteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.