MLB Baseball Predictions

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only. If you do wish to gamble on baseball then I highly suggest reading my blog post: The Top 5 Online Sportsbooks for U.S. Players.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.

All upcoming MLB baseball predictions are listed below. There, you will find the odds of winning, predicted score and estimated money line. We hope you enjoy.

Today’s MLB Game Predictions – Monday, August 19th, 2019

Time Teams Prob Pitchers Lines – Updated 8/19 @ 8:38 am Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
Over/Under
7:05 PM Royals Jorge Lopez
+117
+110
+123
o10-110
44.9%
4.96
10.4
Orioles John Means
-127
-130
-133
u10+100
55.1%
5.49
7:05 PM Nationals Joe Ross
-125
-134
-126
o9½-110
55.8%
5.16
9.77
Pirates Trevor Williams
+115
+114
+116
u9½+100
44.2%
4.60
7:10 PM Mariners Marco Gonzales
+170
+161
+168
o8½+102
38.1%
4.03
9.15
Rays Brendan McKay
-180
-186
-178
u8½-112
61.9%
5.12
7:10 PM Padres Eric Lauer
+148
+142
+150
o9+100
38.9%
4.29
9.66
Reds Trevor Bauer
-158
-164
-160
u9-110
61.1%
5.36
7:45 PM Brewers Zach Davies
+109
+105
+107
o9½+100
46.6%
4.47
9.26
Cardinals Dakota Hudson
-119
-125
-117
u9½-110
53.4%
4.78
8:05 PM Angels Dillon Peters
-115
-118
-115
o11½+100
54.3%
5.46
10.4
Rangers Kolby Allard
+105
-102
+105
u11½-110
45.7%
5.01
8:10 PM Tigers Edwin Jackson
+328
+310
+330
o9½-110
23.1%
3.54
9.69
Astros Wade Miley
-373
-420
-370
u9½+100
76.9%
6.15
8:10 PM White Sox Ivan Nova
+183
+175
+182
o9½-110
36.9%
4.40
10.1
Twins Kyle Gibson
-197
-205
-193
u9½+100
63.1%
5.74
9:40 PM Rockies Chi Chi Gonzalez
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
32.1%
3.90
9.51
D-backs Zac Gallen
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
No Odds
67.9%
5.60

Today’s MLB Picks and Game Analysis

Below are a few advanced metrics on the games played today. If there is an orange check mark in the “More Info” section of the game summary, then there is at least one bet in the game that we would recommend.

Bet Values available later.

Tomorrow’s MLB Game Predictions – Tuesday, August 20th, 2019

Time (ET) Matchup Teams Prob Pitchers Money Line Prediction Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
2:05 PM Angels vs. Rangers Angels Andrew Heaney
-104
49.9%
4.91
9.85
Rangers Brock Burke
-105
50.1%
4.93
7:05 PM Royals vs. Orioles Royals Brad Keller
-116
52.8%
5.20
10.1
Orioles Dylan Bundy
+106
47.2%
4.92
7:05 PM Nationals vs. Pirates Nationals Stephen Strasburg
-145
58.4%
5.08
9.37
Pirates Chris Archer
+135
41.6%
4.29
7:10 PM Indians vs. Mets Indians Shane Bieber
-122
54.1%
4.34
8.34
Mets Steven Matz
+112
45.9%
4.00
7:10 PM Phillies vs. Red Sox Phillies Aaron Nola
-105
50.2%
4.91
9.80
Red Sox Undecided
-104
49.8%
4.89
7:10 PM Mariners vs. Rays Mariners Undecided
+161
37.6%
4.10
9.36
Rays Undecided
-171
62.4%
5.26
7:10 PM Padres vs. Reds Padres Cal Quantrill
+136
41.4%
4.14
9.06
Reds Sonny Gray
-146
58.6%
4.92
7:20 PM Marlins vs. Braves Marlins Elieser Hernandez
+163
37.2%
4.40
10.0
Braves Dallas Keuchel
-173
62.8%
5.69
7:45 PM Brewers vs. Cardinals Brewers Gio Gonzalez
-102
49.4%
4.82
9.70
Cardinals Michael Wacha
-107
50.6%
4.88
8:05 PM Angels vs. Rangers Angels Undecided
-103
49.6%
4.98
10.0
Rangers Joe Palumbo
-106
50.4%
5.02
8:05 PM Giants vs. Cubs Giants Tyler Beede
+152
38.8%
3.98
8.97
Cubs Cole Hamels
-162
61.2%
4.98
8:10 PM Tigers vs. Astros Tigers Spencer Turnbull
+230
29.8%
3.68
9.23
Astros Aaron Sanchez
-240
70.2%
5.54
8:10 PM White Sox vs. Twins White Sox Reynaldo Lopez
+175
35.7%
4.36
10.1
Twins Michael Pineda
-185
64.3%
5.82
9:40 PM Rockies vs. D-backs Rockies Kyle Freeland
+120
44.3%
4.67
9.91
D-backs Alex Young
-130
55.7%
5.23
10:07 PM Yankees vs. Athletics Yankees Domingo German
-118
53.2%
5.25
10.1
Athletics Homer Bailey
+108
46.8%
4.92
10:10 PM Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Blue Jays Sean Reid-Foley
+283
25.7%
3.24
8.58
Dodgers Clayton Kershaw
-293
74.3%
5.33

Yesterday’s MLB Game Prediction Results

Date Teams SB Consensus DRatings Odds to Win1 Final Score Sportsbook Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
8/18 SD +116 0.452 3 -0.79039 -0.79407
PHI -136 0.548 2
8/18 STL -165 0.554 5 -0.47521 -0.59059
CIN +144 0.446 4
8/18 LAD +110 0.502 3 -0.61422 -0.69716
ATL -120 0.498 5
8/18 MIL -115 0.478 8 -0.71505 -0.65009
WAS -105 0.522 16
8/18 MIA +130 0.453 6 -0.52416 -0.60331
COL -150 0.547 7
8/18 SF -130 0.494 1 -0.73648 -0.68122
ARI +110 0.506 6
8/18 CHC -180 0.558 7 -0.49159 -0.5834
PIT +155 0.442 1
8/18 BAL +260 0.272 7 -0.31508 -0.31745
BOS -310 0.728 13
8/18 CLE -125 0.489 8 -0.61904 -0.71539
NYY +105 0.511 4
8/18 SEA +144 0.503 7 -0.92396 -0.68717
TOR -165 0.497 0
8/18 DET +155 0.343 4 -0.4691 -0.42007
TB -180 0.657 5
8/18 MIN +120 0.432 6 -0.8135 -0.83933
TEX -140 0.568 3
8/18 CHW +144 0.392 2 -0.51335 -0.49758
LAA -165 0.608 9
8/18 HOU -160 0.581 4 -0.46296 -0.543
OAK +140 0.419 1
8/18 NYM -180 0.58 11 -0.46325 -0.54473
KC +155 0.42 5

Above are our results from each game yesterday. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.

MLB Season Prediction Results

Yesterday
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 15 10 5 0 0.667 -0.59516
DRatings 15 11 4 0 0.733 -0.61097
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 94 52 42 0 0.553 -0.67101
DRatings 94 56 38 0 0.596 -0.67896
Last Month
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 390 236 154 0 0.605 -0.65912
DRatings 390 240 148 2 0.618 -0.66423
2019
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 1864 1112 739 13 0.6 -0.66609
DRatings 1864 1084 771 9 0.584 -0.67269
All Time
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 4323 2536 1747 40 0.591 -0.66766
DRatings 4323 2485 1820 18 0.577 -0.67372

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against the sportsbook consensus. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks. Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this criteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.