MLB Baseball Predictions

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only. If you do wish to gamble on baseball then I highly suggest reading my blog post: The Top 5 Online Sportsbooks for U.S. Players.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.

All upcoming MLB baseball predictions are listed below. There, you will find the odds of winning, predicted score and estimated money line. We hope you enjoy.

Today’s MLB Game Predictions – Sunday, August 19th, 2018

Time Teams Prob Pitchers Lines – Updated 8/19 @ 12:28 pm Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
Over/Under
1:05 PM Blue Jays Ryan Borucki
+235
+235
+235
o8 -107
32%
2.71
6.61
Yankees J.A. Happ
-257
-285
-255
u8 -103
68%
3.90
1:05 PM Rays Diego Castillo
+183
+185
+183
o9 -110
29.3%
2.74
6.91
Red Sox Hector Velazquez
-196
-215
-195
u9 +100
70.7%
4.17
1:10 PM Orioles Yefry Ramirez
+237
+230
+240
o8½ +105
27.4%
3.07
7.95
Indians Mike Clevinger
-260
-280
-260
u8½ -115
72.6%
4.87
1:10 PM Giants Andrew Suarez
+103
-110
+101
o8½ +105
45.6%
3.83
8.00
Reds Luis Castillo
-113
-110
-111
u8½ -115
54.4%
4.17
1:35 PM Rockies German Marquez
+119
+115
+119
o8 +100
44.9%
3.47
7.31
Braves Anibal Sanchez
-129
-135
-129
u8 -110
55.1%
3.84
1:35 PM Cubs Jose Quintana
+106
+100
+110
o8 -105
46.7%
3.40
7.04
Pirates Jameson Taillon
-116
-120
-120
u8 -105
53.3%
3.64
1:35 PM Marlins Jose Urena
+203
+195
+205
o9 +100
34.5%
3.30
7.81
Nationals Gio Gonzalez
-220
-230
-225
u9 -110
65.5%
4.51
2:10 PM Tigers Buck Farmer
+175
+165
+180
o9½ -105
35%
3.62
8.52
Twins Jake Odorizzi
-186
-190
-190
u9½ -105
65%
4.90
2:10 PM Royals Heath Fillmyer
+143
+135
+145
o9 -112
43.5%
3.78
8.09
White Sox Reynaldo Lopez
-153
-155
-155
u9 +102
56.5%
4.31
2:15 PM Brewers Jhoulys Chacin
-106
-110
-108
o8 -115
49.3%
3.60
7.27
Cardinals John Gant
-104
-110
-102
u8 +105
50.7%
3.66
3:05 PM Angels Jaime Barria
-103
-110
-105
o11 -105
54.9%
4.99
9.51
Rangers Yovani Gallardo
-107
-110
-105
u11 -105
45.1%
4.52
4:05 PM Astros Justin Verlander
-153
-157
-152
o7½ +110
55.7%
3.01
5.70
Athletics Sean Manaea
+143
+137
+142
u7½ -120
44.3%
2.68
4:10 PM D-backs Zack Greinke
-200
-210
-195
o8 -120
62.2%
4.33
7.72
Padres Brett Kennedy
+185
+180
+183
u8 +110
37.8%
3.39
4:10 PM Dodgers Clayton Kershaw
-185
-190
-190
o8 -105
60.8%
3.36
6.06
Mariners Roenis Elias
+174
+165
+180
u8 -105
39.2%
2.70
7:10 PM Mets Jason Vargas
+175
+170
+173
o8½ +102
39.2%
3.61
8.09
Phillies Nick Pivetta
-186
-200
-183
u8½ -112
60.8%
4.48

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Today’s MLB Picks and Game Analysis

Below are a few advanced metrics on the games played today. If there is an orange check mark in the “More Info” section of the game summary, then there is at least one bet in the game that we would recommend.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Game Analysis

Time: 1:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Toronto Blue Jays 55-67 20 -10.8 4.44 5.04 Matchup and Bet Value
New York Yankees 77-45 2 1.28 5.19 4.03
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Borucki TOR (2-2 3.29 ERA), J.A. Happ NYY (13-6 3.86 ERA)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Game Analysis

Time: 1:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Tampa Bay Rays 62-61 19 8.92 4.15 4.08 Matchup and Bet Value
Boston Red Sox 88-36 1 22.76 5.46 3.7
Starting Pitchers: Diego Castillo TB (3-2 3.74 ERA), Hector Velazquez BOS (7-0 2.77 ERA)

Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Indians Game Analysis

Time: 1:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Baltimore Orioles 37-86 29 -39.62 3.93 5.41 Matchup and Bet Value
Cleveland Indians 70-52 5 -12.23 5.08 4.02
Starting Pitchers: Yefry Ramirez BAL (1-4 5.4 ERA), Mike Clevinger CLE (8-7 3.38 ERA)

San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds Game Analysis

Time: 1:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
San Francisco Giants 61-63 17 5.33 3.98 4.31 Matchup and Bet Value
Cincinnati Reds 54-69 23 -4.66 4.5 5.06
Starting Pitchers: Andrew Suarez SF (4-8 4.4 ERA), Luis Castillo CIN (6-10 5.04 ERA)

Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves Game Analysis

Time: 1:35 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Colorado Rockies 67-56 15 14.52 4.7 4.81 Matchup and Bet Value
Atlanta Braves 68-54 10 14.99 4.87 4.16
Starting Pitchers: German Marquez COL (10-9 4.51 ERA), Anibal Sanchez ATL (6-3 3.07 ERA)

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Game Analysis

Time: 1:35 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Chicago Cubs 71-51 4 1.24 4.81 4.07 Matchup and Bet Value
Pittsburgh Pirates 61-62 18 -1.61 4.44 4.49
Starting Pitchers: Jose Quintana CHC (10-9 4.46 ERA), Jameson Taillon PIT (9-9 3.66 ERA)

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Game Analysis

Time: 1:35 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Miami Marlins 49-76 26 -4.78 3.69 5.16 Matchup and Bet Value
Washington Nationals 61-61 14 -17.53 4.63 4.05
Starting Pitchers: Jose Urena MIA (3-12 4.74 ERA), Gio Gonzalez WAS (7-9 4.12 ERA)

Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Game Analysis

Time: 2:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Detroit Tigers 51-73 27 -4.83 3.87 4.69 Matchup and Bet Value
Minnesota Twins 57-64 22 -8.45 4.5 4.71
Starting Pitchers: Buck Farmer DET (3-4 4.33 ERA), Jake Odorizzi MIN (5-7 4.44 ERA)

Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Game Analysis

Time: 2:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Kansas City Royals 38-85 30 -31.06 3.68 5.44 Matchup and Bet Value
Chicago White Sox 45-77 28 -15.35 4.1 5.38
Starting Pitchers: Heath Fillmyer KC (1-1 3.61 ERA), Reynaldo Lopez CHW (4-9 4.4 ERA)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Game Analysis

Time: 2:15 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Milwaukee Brewers 68-57 13 7.36 4.38 4.22 Matchup and Bet Value
St. Louis Cardinals 68-55 12 1.74 4.61 4.12
Starting Pitchers: Jhoulys Chacin MIL (12-4 3.72 ERA), John Gant STL (5-4 3.74 ERA)

Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers Game Analysis

Time: 3:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Los Angeles Angels 63-62 16 -8.72 4.63 4.3 Matchup and Bet Value
Texas Rangers 55-70 24 -0.1 4.86 5.31
Starting Pitchers: Jaime Barria LAA (8-7 3.5 ERA), Yovani Gallardo TEX (7-2 6.39 ERA)

Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics Game Analysis

Time: 4:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Houston Astros 74-49 3 -7.09 4.87 3.28 Matchup and Bet Value
Oakland Athletics 75-49 7 26.16 4.78 4.13
Starting Pitchers: Justin Verlander HOU (11-8 2.52 ERA), Sean Manaea OAK (11-8 3.44 ERA)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Game Analysis

Time: 4:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Arizona Diamondbacks 68-56 9 6.87 4.53 3.89 Matchup and Bet Value
San Diego Padres 49-77 25 -15.06 3.84 4.79
Starting Pitchers: Zack Greinke ARI (12-8 3 ERA), Brett Kennedy SD (0-2 11 ERA)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Seattle Mariners Game Analysis

Time: 4:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Los Angeles Dodgers 65-58 6 -13.04 4.7 3.89 Matchup and Bet Value
Seattle Mariners 71-53 8 14.9 4.15 4.4
Starting Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw LAD (5-5 2.47 ERA), Roenis Elias SEA (2-0 2.88 ERA)

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game Analysis

Time: 7:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
New York Mets 52-69 21 -15.48 4.15 4.64 Matchup and Bet Value
Philadelphia Phillies 68-55 11 7.43 4.3 4.2
Starting Pitchers: Jason Vargas NYM (2-8 8.1 ERA), Nick Pivetta PHI (7-9 4.37 ERA)


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Tomorrow’s MLB Game Predictions – Monday, August 20th, 2018

Time (ET) Matchup Teams Prob Pitchers Money Line Prediction Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
7:05 PM Braves vs. Pirates Braves Kevin Gausman
-122
54.1%
3.75
7.21
Pirates Chris Archer
+112
45.9%
3.45
7:07 PM Orioles vs. Blue Jays Orioles Undecided
+178
35.3%
3.55
8.32
Blue Jays Marco Estrada
-188
64.7%
4.77
7:10 PM Royals vs. Rays Royals Undecided
+142
40.4%
3.51
7.77
Rays Undecided
-152
59.6%
4.25
7:10 PM White Sox vs. Twins White Sox Lucas Giolito
+193
33.5%
3.56
8.53
Twins Jose Berrios
-203
66.5%
4.97
7:10 PM Giants vs. Mets Giants Derek Holland
+123
43.7%
3.15
6.74
Mets Zack Wheeler
-133
56.3%
3.58
7:10 PM Indians vs. Red Sox Indians Corey Kluber
-112
51.9%
0
0
Red Sox Rick Porcello
+102
48.1%
0
8:10 PM Reds vs. Brewers Reds Homer Bailey
+208
31.9%
0
0
Brewers Chase Anderson
-218
68.1%
0
10:05 PM Rangers vs. Athletics Rangers Undecided
+186
34.3%
0
0
Athletics Mike Fiers
-196
65.7%
0
10:10 PM Astros vs. Mariners Astros Gerrit Cole
-189
64.8%
0
0
Mariners Felix Hernandez
+179
35.2%
0
10:10 PM Cardinals vs. Dodgers Cardinals Austin Gomber
+118
44.7%
0
0
Dodgers Undecided
-128
55.3%
0

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Yesterday’s MLB Game Prediction Results

Date Teams DRatings Odds to Win1 Final Score OddsPortal Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
8/18 NYM -105 0.528 3 -0.69315 -0.63866
PHI -105 0.472 1
8/18 MIA -189 0.373 7 -1.01257 -0.98618
WAS +168 0.627 5
8/18 CHC -145 0.466 1 -0.54353 -0.62736
PIT +134 0.534 3
8/18 SF +144 0.592 1 -0.908 -0.89649
CIN -154 0.408 7
8/18 COL -157 0.416 5 -0.91985 -0.87707
ATL +147 0.584 3
8/18 MIL -154 0.412 2 -0.51639 -0.53103
STL +144 0.588 7
8/18 ARI +152 0.518 6 -0.93639 -0.72981
SD -160 0.482 7
8/18 TOR -312 0.295 6 -0.2969 -0.34956
NYY +282 0.705 11
8/18 BAL -189 0.368 4 -1.02672 -0.99967
CLE +174 0.632 2
8/18 HOU -108 0.53 1 -0.67689 -0.75502
OAK -101 0.47 7
8/18 TB -207 0.276 2 -0.41539 -0.32296
BOS +188 0.724 5
8/18 KC -124 0.544 3 -0.78651 -0.60881
CHW +116 0.456 1
8/18 DET -174 0.389 7 -0.96292 -0.94418
MIN +155 0.611 5
8/18 LAA +120 0.505 11 -0.59314 -0.6832
TEX -128 0.495 7
8/18 LAD +137 0.547 4 -0.88302 -0.79186
SEA -149 0.453 5

Above are our results from each game yesterday. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.

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MLB Season Prediction Results

2018
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 1848 1069 755 24 0.585 -0.67108
DRatings 1848 1049 793 6 0.569 -0.6767
Yesterday
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 15 6 8 1 0.433 -0.74476
DRatings 15 7 8 0 0.467 -0.71612
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 95 54 39 2 0.579 -0.66425
DRatings 95 61 34 0 0.642 -0.6481
Last Two Weeks
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 190 108 80 2 0.574 -0.66794
DRatings 190 116 74 0 0.611 -0.65975

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against GTBets. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks (we used GTBets, but could have used anyone). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this creiteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.