MLB Baseball Predictions


Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only. If you do wish to gamble on baseball then I highly suggest reading my blog post: The Top 5 Online Sportsbooks for U.S. Players.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.

All upcoming MLB baseball predictions are listed below. There, you will find the odds of winning, predicted score and estimated money line. We hope you enjoy.

Today’s MLB Game Predictions – Wednesday, October 17th, 2018

Time Teams Prob Pitchers Lines – Updated 10/17 @ 3:17 pm Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
Over/Under
5:05 PM Brewers Wade Miley
+181
+170
+180
o7 -120
39.5%
2.87
6.41
Dodgers Clayton Kershaw
-194
-200
-190
u7 +110
60.5%
3.54
8:39 PM Red Sox Rick Porcello
+140
+128
+141
o8 -107
43.5%
3.34
7.15
Astros Charlie Morton
-150
-148
-153
u8 -103
56.5%
3.80

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Today’s MLB Picks and Game Analysis

Below are a few advanced metrics on the games played today. If there is an orange check mark in the “More Info” section of the game summary, then there is at least one bet in the game that we would recommend.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Game Analysis

Time: 5:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Milwaukee Brewers 101-69 5 23.09 4.59 3.95 Matchup and Bet Value
Los Angeles Dodgers 96-74 4 -11.8 4.89 3.71
Starting Pitchers: Wade Miley MIL (5-2 2.57 ERA), Clayton Kershaw LAD (9-5 2.73 ERA)

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Game Analysis

Time: 8:39 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Boston Red Sox 113-56 2 22.06 5.44 3.99 Matchup and Bet Value
Houston Astros 107-61 1 0.88 4.95 3.32
Starting Pitchers: Rick Porcello BOS (17-7 4.28 ERA), Charlie Morton HOU (15-3 3.13 ERA)


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Tomorrow’s MLB Game Predictions – Wednesday, October 18th, 2018

Time (ET) Matchup Teams Prob Pitchers Money Line Prediction Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
Game analysis not available yet

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Yesterday’s MLB Game Prediction Results

Date Teams DRatings Odds to Win1 Final Score Sportsbook Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
10/16 BOS +112 0.424 8 -0.77244 -0.85802
HOU -122 0.576 2
10/16 MIL +136 0.46 1 -0.53765 -0.61619
LAD -147 0.54 2

Above are our results from each game yesterday. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.

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MLB Season Prediction Results

2018
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 2449 1420 1002 27 0.585 -0.66872
DRatings 2449 1396 1044 9 0.572 -0.67441
Yesterday
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 2 1 1 0 0.5 -0.65505
DRatings 2 1 1 0 0.5 -0.7371
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 7 2 5 0 0.286 -0.75347
DRatings 7 3 4 0 0.429 -0.74364
Last Two Weeks
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 22 12 10 0 0.545 -0.66945
DRatings 22 11 11 0 0.5 -0.68568

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against GTBets. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks (we used GTBets, but could have used anyone). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this creiteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.