MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 19, 2021

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
Line
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Colorado Rockies (70-78)
Washington Nationals (60-88)
Jon Gray
Paolo Espino
48.5%
51.5%
-105
-104
+100
-104
3.98
4.14
8.12
o8½-120
u9-120
o8½-120
u9-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cleveland Indians (72-74)
New York Yankees (83-66)
Eli Morgan
Gerrit Cole
32.2%
67.8%
+275
-305
+276
-310
3.09
4.91
8.00
o8½+100
u8½-120
o8½+100
u8½-110
Minnesota Twins (65-84)
Toronto Blue Jays (83-65)
Undecided
Jose Berrios
36.7%
63.3%

+202
-224
4.06
5.46
9.52

o9-110
u9-110
Los Angeles Dodgers (95-54)
Cincinnati Reds (77-72)
Clayton Kershaw
Wade Miley
57.0%
43.0%
-187
+180
-190
+176
4.44
3.72
8.16
o9-110
u9-105
o9-105
u9-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Pittsburgh Pirates (56-92)
Miami Marlins (62-86)
Max Kranick
Sandy Alcantara
39.3%
60.7%
+185
-200
+190
-205
3.48
4.60
8.08
o7-113
u7-105
o7-115
u7-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Baltimore Orioles (47-101)
Boston Red Sox (85-65)
Alexander Wells
Nathan Eovaldi
29.2%
70.8%
+283
-320
+280
-310
3.41
5.54
8.95
o9½-110
u9½-107
o9½-110
u9½-105
Detroit Tigers (71-78)
Tampa Bay Rays (92-57)
Wily Peralta
Shane McClanahan
33.6%
66.4%
+237
-265
+235
-260
3.72
5.41
9.13
o8½-110
u8½-110
o8½-110
u8½-110
Chicago Cubs (66-83)
Milwaukee Brewers (91-57)
Adrian Sampson
Eric Lauer
36.1%
63.9%
+200
-215
+200
-212
3.56
5.02
8.58
o8½-120
u8½+101
o8½-118
u8½+100
Seattle Mariners (79-69)
Kansas City Royals (67-81)
Logan Gilbert
Jackson Kowar
57.2%
42.8%
-130
+122
-130
+125
4.92
4.16
9.08
o9-120
u9½-115
o9-120
u9½-110
Arizona Diamondbacks (48-100)
Houston Astros (87-61)
Zac Gallen
Zack Greinke
35.7%
64.3%
+195
-202
+200
-210
3.38
4.88
8.26
o8½-115
u8½-105
o8½-115
u8½-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
San Diego Padres (76-72)
St. Louis Cardinals (78-69)
Jake Arrieta
J.A. Happ
45.7%
54.3%
+101
-108
+100
-109
4.39
4.83
9.22
o9½+100
u9½-115
o9-120
u9½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Chicago White Sox (84-64)
Texas Rangers (55-93)
Lucas Giolito
Jordan Lyles
61.9%
38.1%
-225
+210
-230
+210
5.03
3.78
8.81
o8½-113
u8½-105
o8½-115
u8½+100
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Atlanta Braves (76-70)
San Francisco Giants (97-52)
Max Fried
Anthony DeSclafani
41.7%
58.3%
+110
-120
+111
-118
3.62
4.48
8.10
o8-113
u8-105
o8-115
u8-105
Oakland Athletics (81-67)
Los Angeles Angels (72-76)
Frankie Montas
Shohei Ohtani
47.1%
52.9%
-115
+117
-125
+116
4.24
4.55
8.79
o8½-103
u8½-110
o8½+100
u8½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Philadelphia Phillies (76-72)
New York Mets (72-77)
Kyle Gibson
Rich Hill
46.9%
53.1%
+111
-120
+110
-120
3.74
4.06
7.80
o8½-101
u8½-115
o8½+100
u8½-115
Games for Sep 18, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
Line
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
57.9%
42.1%
-116
+107
-120
+113
3
1
-0.64162-0.62096-0.54583
Atlanta Braves
San Francisco Giants
46.3%
53.7%
-107
-101
-104
+101
0
2
-0.70739-0.70542-0.62124
San Diego Padres
St. Louis Cardinals
48.7%
51.3%
+110
-117
+110
-117
2
3
-0.63297-0.63297-0.66736
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
25.7%
74.3%
+279
-315
+285
-310
4
6
-0.29834-0.29530-0.29758
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
49.1%
50.9%
-106
-103
-108
+100
5
3
-0.68615-0.67446-0.71125
Arizona Diamondbacks
Houston Astros
32.1%
67.9%
+247
-275
+258
-280
6
4
-1.26546-1.29138-1.13769
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks158-7 (0.533)0-0.72334 
Sportsbooks158-7 (0.533)0-0.72404 
DRatings158-7 (0.533)0-0.68564
0.03771
0.03840

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.