MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 20, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
San Diego Padres (23-24)
Atlanta Braves (26-15)
Dylan Cease
Reynaldo López
41.2%
58.8%
+112
-120
+112
-122


3.81
4.74
8.55
o8-113
u8½-120
o8½-105
u8½-115
Chicago White Sox (14-32)
Toronto Blue Jays (19-25)
Erick Fedde
José Berríos
38.5%
61.5%
+178
-189
+175
-192

+1½-120
-1½+105
3.06
4.27
7.33
o8-103
u8-113
o8-105
u8-115
New York Mets (20-25)
Cleveland Guardians (29-17)
Tylor Megill
Ben Lively
39.3%
60.7%
+110
-118
+110
-120
+1½-195
-1½+165
+1½-190
-1½+170
3.79
4.91
8.70
o8½+102
u8½-105
o8½+100
u8+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
San Diego Padres (23-24)
Atlanta Braves (26-15)
Randy Vásquez
Chris Sale
35.9%
64.1%
+198
-214



3.56
5.04
8.60
o8½-108
u8½-108

Milwaukee Brewers (27-18)
Miami Marlins (15-32)
Joe Ross
Ryan Weathers
53.7%
46.3%
-125
+115
-125
+115

-1½+130
+1½-150
4.42
4.04
8.46
o8½+105
u8-103
o8-115
u8½-120
Minnesota Twins (24-21)
Washington Nationals (20-24)
Pablo López
Mitchell Parker
63.5%
36.5%
-156
+145
-158
+147
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+100
+1½-120
4.85
3.44
8.29
o8-108
u8-108
o8-110
u8½-125
Boston Red Sox (22-24)
Tampa Bay Rays (25-22)
Tanner Houck
Taj Bradley
50.0%
50.0%
-101
-105
-105
+100

-1½+160
+1½-175
3.69
3.69
7.38
o7½-113
u8-120
o8+100
u7½+100
Seattle Mariners (25-21)
New York Yankees (32-15)
Logan Gilbert
Marcus Stroman
42.1%
57.9%
+124
-123
+114
-123

+1½-180
-1½+165
3.54
4.37
7.91
o7½-125
u8-108
o8-110
u8-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Detroit Tigers (23-22)
Kansas City Royals (28-19)
Reese Olson
Michael Wacha
51.5%
48.5%
+103
-113
+104
-111
+1½-220
-1½+180
+1½-190
-1½+170
4.19
4.04
8.23
o8½-108
u8½-105
o8½-110
u8½-110
Baltimore Orioles (28-15)
St. Louis Cardinals (20-25)
Dean Kremer
Sonny Gray
45.8%
54.2%
-105
-104
-105
-105
-1½+155
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-175
3.50
3.94
7.44
o7½-120
u8-113
o7½-120
u7½+100
Los Angeles Angels (17-29)
Houston Astros (20-26)
Reid Detmers
Framber Valdez
33.5%
66.5%
+174
-187
+175
-190

+1½-130
-1½+110
3.03
4.74
7.77
o8½-108
u8½-108
o8½-110
u8½-110
Arizona Diamondbacks (21-25)
Los Angeles Dodgers (31-17)
Slade Cecconi
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
35.0%
65.0%
+200
-209
+201
-225
+1½+100
-1½-120

3.39
4.95
8.34
o8½+100
u8½-113
o8½-105
u8½-115
Overall Bet Value Active
Games for May 19, 2024
Games for May 21, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
San Diego Padres (23-24)
Atlanta Braves (26-15)
45.0%
55.0%
+109
-115
+110
-111
+1½-188
-1½+168
+1½-180
-1½+175
9.45
o8½-118
u9-120
o9+110
u9-120
4th
TOP
4
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Detroit Tigers
Arizona Diamondbacks
47.3%
52.7%
+126
-133
+130
-133
+1½-155
-1½+148
+1½-160
-1½+150
4
6
-0.57389-0.56627-0.64133
Cincinnati Reds
Los Angeles Dodgers
38.0%
62.0%
+154
-159
+153
-160
+1½-108
-1½+117
+1½-130
-1½+125
2
3
-0.49549-0.49610-0.47826
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
35.7%
64.3%
+191
-210
+195
-205
+1½-108
-1½-105
+1½-115
-1½-102
1
4
-0.41030-0.40836-0.44175
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
39.5%
60.5%
+142
-152
+145
-150
+1½-148
-1½+132
+1½-145
-1½+135
4
1
-0.90002-0.90421-0.92829
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs
42.1%
57.9%
+114
-121
+119
-121
+1½-188
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+172
3
2
-0.77551-0.78803-0.86595
Milwaukee Brewers
Houston Astros
52.8%
47.2%
+126
-131
+125
-130
+1½-163
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+150
4
9
-0.57675-0.58016-0.75141
Oakland Athletics
Kansas City Royals
41.0%
59.0%
+161
-168
+155
-168
+1½-125
-1½+115
+1½-130
-1½+120
4
8
-0.47697-0.48587-0.52775
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Guardians
39.7%
60.3%
+102
-108
+100
+100
+1½-205
-1½+183
+1½-210
-1½+200
2
5
-0.66959-0.69315-0.50572
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
53.4%
46.6%
-137
+132
-131
+129
-1½+120
+1½-133
-1½+120
+1½-133
7
3
-0.55713-0.57100-0.62700
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
53.1%
46.9%
+102
-109
+114
-110
+1½-195
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+180
2
5
-0.66744-0.63769-0.75788
Seattle Mariners
Baltimore Orioles
40.5%
59.5%
+133
-137
+134
-141
+1½-173
-1½+157
+1½-175
-1½+160
3
6
-0.55530-0.54837-0.51992
Chicago White Sox
New York Yankees
26.5%
73.5%
+274
-295
+264
-280
+1½+133
-1½-148
+1½+133
-1½-145
2
7
-0.30602-0.31689-0.30854
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies
38.0%
62.0%
+196
-215
+205
-225
+1½-108
-1½-108
+1½-105
-1½-109
5
11
-0.40211-0.38769-0.47768
Boston Red Sox
St. Louis Cardinals
48.8%
51.2%
-124
+117
-122
+122
-1½+152
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-145
11
3
-0.60567-0.59866-0.71648
Cincinnati Reds
Los Angeles Dodgers
33.4%
66.6%
+176
-184
+175
-185
+1½-118
-1½+105
+1½-120
-1½+107
0
4
-0.44420-0.44482-0.40722
Detroit Tigers
Arizona Diamondbacks
42.7%
57.3%
+128
-134
+126
-135
+1½-168
-1½+160
+1½-170
-1½+155
8
3
-0.83536-0.83218-0.85121
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1513-2 (0.867)0-0.56109 
Sportsbooks1512-2 (0.833)1-0.56182 
DRatings1510-5 (0.667)0-0.59701
-0.03592
-0.03519

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.