MLB Baseball Predictions


Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only. If you do wish to gamble on baseball then I highly suggest reading my blog post: The Top 5 Online Sportsbooks for U.S. Players.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.

All upcoming MLB baseball predictions are listed below. There, you will find the odds of winning, predicted score and estimated money line. We hope you enjoy.

Today’s MLB Game Predictions – Wednesday, October 30th, 2019

Time Teams Prob Pitchers Lines – Updated 10/30 @ 9:14 am Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
Over/Under
8:08 PM Nationals Max Scherzer
+124
+112
+126
o7½+100
46.7%
4.12
8.52
Astros Zack Greinke
-134
-132
-131
u7½-110
53.3%
4.40

Today’s MLB Picks and Game Analysis

Below are a few advanced metrics on the games played today. If there is an orange check mark in the “More Info” section of the game summary, then there is at least one bet in the game that we would recommend.

Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros Game Analysis

Time: 8:08 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Washington Nationals 104-74 5 7.71 5.31 4.4 Matchup and Bet Value
Houston Astros 117-62 1 -0.37 5.53 3.94
Starting Pitchers: Max Scherzer WAS (11-7 2.92 ERA), Zack Greinke HOU (18-5 2.93 ERA)

Yesterday’s MLB Game Prediction Results

Date Teams SB Consensus DRatings Odds to Win1 Final Score Sportsbook Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
10/30 WAS +125 0.467 6 -0.82967 -0.76143
HOU -135 0.533 2

Above are our results from each game yesterday. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.

MLB Season Prediction Results

Yesterday
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 1 0 1 0 0 -0.82967
DRatings 1 0 1 0 0 -0.76143
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 5 2 3 0 0.4 -0.69208
DRatings 5 1 4 0 0.2 -0.77992
Last Month
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 36 19 17 0 0.528 -0.67817
DRatings 36 18 18 0 0.5 -0.69718
2019
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 2466 1469 973 24 0.601 -0.66249
DRatings 2466 1433 1021 12 0.584 -0.66945
All Time
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 4925 2893 1981 51 0.593 -0.66567
DRatings 4925 2834 2070 21 0.578 -0.67197

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against the sportsbook consensus. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks. Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this criteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.