MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 28, 2022

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Cincinnati Reds (60-94)
Pittsburgh Pirates (57-97)
Luis Cessa
Bryse Wilson
50.9%
49.1%
+105
-112
+115
-112
+1½-195
-1½+173
+1½-185
-1½+170
4.43
4.34
8.77
o8-115
u8+102
o8-115
u8½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Tampa Bay Rays (84-69)
Cleveland Guardians (86-67)
Tyler Glasnow
Triston McKenzie
47.6%
52.4%
+111
-120
+115
-120
+1½-215
-1½+189
+1½-210
-1½+185
3.49
3.73
7.22
o6½-118
u7-120
o6½-110
u6½-105
Kansas City Royals (63-90)
Detroit Tigers (60-92)
Daniel Lynch
Matt Manning
49.1%
50.9%
+121
-130
+120
-130
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-175
-1½+160
4.30
4.40
8.70
o8+105
u7½+102
o8+100
u8-120
Atlanta Braves (96-58)
Washington Nationals (53-100)
Jake Odorizzi
Josiah Gray
57.7%
42.3%
-202
+188
-210
+195
-1½-128
+1½+112
-1½-130
+1½+112
4.81
3.99
8.80
o8½-113
u8½+100
o8½-120
u8½+100
New York Yankees (94-59)
Toronto Blue Jays (87-67)
Gerrit Cole
Mitch White
56.7%
43.3%
-128
+120
-115
+105
-1½+135
+1½-148
-1½+150
+1½-170
4.23
3.52
7.75
o7½-118
u7½+102
o7½-115
u7½-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Miami Marlins (63-90)
New York Mets (97-57)
Jesus Luzardo
Taijuan Walker
37.5%
62.5%
+168
-180
+175
-184
+1½-125
-1½+112
+1½-130
-1½+116
3.19
4.49
7.68
o7-103
u7-113
o7-105
u7-105
Baltimore Orioles (80-73)
Boston Red Sox (72-81)
Dean Kremer
Rich Hill
48.5%
51.5%
+101
-109
+100
-110
+1½-195
-1½+173
+1½-197
-1½+175
4.43
4.59
9.02
o9-108
u9-108
o9-105
u9-110
Philadelphia Phillies (83-69)
Chicago Cubs (67-86)
Aaron Nola
Hayden Wesneski
59.9%
40.1%
-177
+166
-174
+165
-1½-115
+1½-105
-1½-110
+1½-108
4.10
3.06
7.16
o8-110
u8-110
o7-120
u7+100
Overall Bet Value Active
St. Louis Cardinals (89-65)
Milwaukee Brewers (82-71)
Jose Quintana
Brandon Woodruff
47.9%
52.1%
+137
-147
+122
-145
+1½-168
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+155
3.97
4.18
8.15
o7-118
u7+102
o7-110
u7-110
Chicago White Sox (76-77)
Minnesota Twins (74-79)
Johnny Cueto
Josh Winder
50.3%
49.7%
-109
+103
-108
+102
-1½+152
+1½-168
-1½+150
+1½-170
3.96
3.92
7.88
o7-120
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-120
Arizona Diamondbacks (71-83)
Houston Astros (101-53)
Zac Gallen
Justin Verlander
33.7%
66.3%
+166
-180
+165
-180
+1½-135
-1½+127
+1½-143
-1½+125
2.74
4.42
7.16
o6½-110
u6½-103
o6½-105
u6½-105
Oakland Athletics (56-97)
Los Angeles Angels (67-86)
Adrian Martinez
Michael Lorenzen
38.4%
61.6%
+166
-180
+165
-176
+1½-125
-1½+112
+1½-128
-1½+110
3.53
4.74
8.27
o8½-102
u8½-113
o8½-105
u8½+100
Los Angeles Dodgers (106-47)
San Diego Padres (85-68)
Julio Urias
Joe Musgrove
52.1%
47.9%
-140
+130
-133
+130
-1½+127
+1½-142
-1½+125
+1½-140
4.05
3.84
7.89
o7½+102
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Texas Rangers (65-87)
Seattle Mariners (83-69)
Martin Perez
George Kirby
43.9%
56.1%
+134
-160
+146
-160
+1½-160
-1½+135
+1½-159
-1½+140
3.36
4.00
7.36
o7-110
u7-110
o7+100
u7-120
Colorado Rockies (65-88)
San Francisco Giants (75-78)
Jose Urena
Undecided Undecided
38.1%
61.9%




3.59
4.84
8.43


Games for Sep 27, 2022

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Colorado Rockies
San Francisco Giants
40.6%
59.4%
+181
-194
+185
-195
+1½-122
-1½+107
+1½-120
-1½+115
2
5
-0.43134-0.42580-0.52108
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
37.7%
62.3%
+178
-191
+181
-190
+1½-118
-1½+105
+1½-115
-1½+107
5
0
-1.03840-1.04418-0.97670
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
51.6%
48.4%
+100
-108
+100
-102
-1½+153
+1½-168
-1½+155
+1½-165
3
4
-0.67446-0.68824-0.72542
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
40.0%
60.0%
+180
-192
+183
-200
+1½-118
-1½+102
+1½-120
-1½+105
3
4
-0.43383-0.42529-0.51068
Arizona Diamondbacks
Houston Astros
35.5%
64.5%
+187
-203
+189
-200
+1½-115
-1½+102
+1½+105
-1½-103
2
10
-0.41875-0.41806-0.43897
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins
49.1%
50.9%
-119
+111
-118
+112
-1½+143
+1½-158
-1½+145
+1½-159
0
4
-0.76385-0.76430-0.67539
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks159-5 (0.633)1-0.69110 
Sportsbooks1510-5 (0.667)0-0.68686 
DRatings157-8 (0.467)0-0.68417
0.00693
0.00268

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.