The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only. If you do wish to gamble on baseball then I highly suggest reading my blog post: The Top 5 Online Sportsbooks for U.S. Players.
Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.
All upcoming MLB baseball predictions are listed below. There, you will find the odds of winning, predicted score and estimated money line. We hope you enjoy.
Today’s MLB Game Predictions – Wednesday, October 17th, 2018
| Time | Teams | Prob Pitchers | Lines – Updated 10/17 @ 3:17 pm | Odds to Win | Score Prediction | Total Runs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
 |
 |
Over/Under | ||||||
| 5:05 PM | Brewers | Wade Miley | |||||||
| Dodgers | Clayton Kershaw | ||||||||
| 8:39 PM | Red Sox | Rick Porcello | |||||||
| Astros | Charlie Morton | ||||||||
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Today’s MLB Picks and Game Analysis
Below are a few advanced metrics on the games played today. If there is an orange check mark in the “More Info” section of the game summary, then there is at least one bet in the game that we would recommend.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Game Analysis
Time: 5:05 pm ET
| Team | Record | Team Rank | Units W/L | Runs PG | Opp Runs PG | More Info | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 101-69 | 5 | 23.09 | 4.59 | 3.95 | Matchup and Bet Value | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 96-74 | 4 | -11.8 | 4.89 | 3.71 | ||
| Starting Pitchers: Wade Miley MIL (5-2 2.57 ERA), Clayton Kershaw LAD (9-5 2.73 ERA) | |||||||
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Game Analysis
Time: 8:39 pm ET
| Team | Record | Team Rank | Units W/L | Runs PG | Opp Runs PG | More Info | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 113-56 | 2 | 22.06 | 5.44 | 3.99 | Matchup and Bet Value | |
| Houston Astros | 107-61 | 1 | 0.88 | 4.95 | 3.32 | ||
| Starting Pitchers: Rick Porcello BOS (17-7 4.28 ERA), Charlie Morton HOU (15-3 3.13 ERA) | |||||||
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Tomorrow’s MLB Game Predictions – Wednesday, October 18th, 2018
| Time (ET) | Matchup | Teams | Prob Pitchers | Money Line Prediction | Odds to Win | Score Prediction | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game analysis not available yet | |||||||
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Yesterday’s MLB Game Prediction Results
| Date | Teams |  |
DRatings Odds to Win1 | Final Score | Sportsbook Log Loss | DRatings Log Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/16 | BOS | +112 | 0.424 | 8 | -0.77244 | -0.85802 |
| HOU | -122 | 0.576 | 2 | |||
| 10/16 | MIL | +136 | 0.46 | 1 | -0.53765 | -0.61619 |
| LAD | -147 | 0.54 | 2 |
Above are our results from each game yesterday. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.
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MLB Season Prediction Results
2018
| Games | Wins | Losses | No Pick | Win Pct. | Log Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTBets | 2449 | 1420 | 1002 | 27 | 0.585 | -0.66872 |
| DRatings | 2449 | 1396 | 1044 | 9 | 0.572 | -0.67441 |
Yesterday
| Games | Wins | Losses | No Pick | Win Pct. | Log Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTBets | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.65505 |
| DRatings | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.7371 |
Last Week
| Games | Wins | Losses | No Pick | Win Pct. | Log Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTBets | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0.286 | -0.75347 |
| DRatings | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0.429 | -0.74364 |
Last Two Weeks
| Games | Wins | Losses | No Pick | Win Pct. | Log Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTBets | 22 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 0.545 | -0.66945 |
| DRatings | 22 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.68568 |
The table listed above shows how our projections have done against GTBets. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks (we used GTBets, but could have used anyone). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this creiteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.