MLB Baseball Predictions


Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only. If you do wish to gamble on baseball then I highly suggest reading my blog post: The Top 5 Online Sportsbooks for U.S. Players.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.

All upcoming MLB baseball predictions are listed below. There, you will find the odds of winning, predicted score and estimated money line. We hope you enjoy.

Today’s MLB Game Predictions – Tuesday, June 18th, 2019

Time Teams Prob Pitchers Lines – Updated 6/18 @ 3:37 pm Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
Over/Under
7:05 PM Tigers Daniel Norris
+141
+137
+144
o8½ -110
40.4%
3.97
8.79
Pirates Mitch Keller
-151
-157
-154
u8½ +100
59.6%
4.82
7:05 PM Rays Ryan Yarbrough
+142
+133
+145
o9½ -115
48.2%
3.68
7.49
Yankees J.A. Happ
-152
-153
-155
u9½ +105
51.8%
3.81
7:05 PM Phillies Jake Arrieta
+142
+138
+144
o9½ -105
43.6%
3.57
7.63
Nationals Patrick Corbin
-152
-158
-154
u9½ -105
56.4%
4.06
7:07 PM Angels Tyler Skaggs
-124
-128
-123
o9½ -105
51.2%
3.81
7.53
Blue Jays Marcus Stroman
+114
+108
+113
u9½ -105
48.8%
3.72
7:10 PM Astros Justin Verlander
-178
-188
-180
o8½ +100
66.3%
4.41
7.58
Reds Anthony DeSclafani
+168
+163
+170
u8½ -110
33.7%
3.17
7:20 PM Mets Jacob deGrom
-122
-118
-125
o8½ -115
52.4%
4.02
7.86
Braves Julio Teheran
+112
-102
+115
u8½ +105
47.6%
3.83
8:05 PM White Sox Ivan Nova
+197
+195
+195
o8½ -115
30.3%
2.76
6.88
Cubs Cole Hamels
-213
-230
-215
u8½ +105
69.7%
4.12
8:05 PM Indians Zach Plesac
-116
-120
-118
o10½ +100
47%
3.84
7.92
Rangers Adrian Sampson
+106
+100
+108
u10½ -110
53%
4.08
8:10 PM Red Sox David Price
-121
-120
-121
o9½ -112
54.5%
3.92
7.51
Twins Michael Pineda
+111
+100
+111
u9½ +102
45.5%
3.58
8:15 PM Marlins Jordan Yamamoto
+218
+205
+220
o8 -105
30.9%
2.93
7.25
Cardinals Jack Flaherty
-237
-240
-240
u8 -105
69.1%
4.31
9:40 PM Rockies Antonio Senzatela
+137
+132
+132
o10 -110
46.6%
3.38
7.01
D-backs Merrill Kelly
-147
-152
-142
u10 +100
53.4%
3.62
10:07 PM Orioles Gabriel Ynoa
+196
+195
+200
o9 +100
31.4%
3.34
8.22
Athletics Brett Anderson
-212
-230
-220
u9 -110
68.6%
4.88
10:10 PM Royals Homer Bailey
+123
+118
+123
o9 +100
38.2%
3.36
7.61
Mariners Yusei Kikuchi
-133
-138
-133
u9 -110
61.8%
4.25
10:10 PM Brewers Brandon Woodruff
-162
-170
-164
o7½ -110
55.8%
3.69
6.99
Padres Logan Allen
+152
+145
+154
u7½ +100
44.2%
3.29
10:10 PM Giants Shaun Anderson
+220
+215
+215
o7½ -110
24.7%
2.60
6.97
Dodgers Clayton Kershaw
-240
-255
-235
u7½ +100
75.3%
4.36

Today’s MLB Picks and Game Analysis

Below are a few advanced metrics on the games played today. If there is an orange check mark in the “More Info” section of the game summary, then there is at least one bet in the game that we would recommend.

Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Game Analysis

Time: 7:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Detroit Tigers 25-43 29 -9.33 3.47 5.41 Matchup and Bet Value
Pittsburgh Pirates 32-39 20 -5.33 4.44 5.52
Starting Pitchers: Daniel Norris DET (2-5 4.52 ERA), Mitch Keller PIT (0-1 15.43 ERA)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Game Analysis

Time: 7:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Tampa Bay Rays 43-29 7 3.72 4.67 3.36 Matchup and Bet Value
New York Yankees 44-27 5 4.22 5.38 4.32
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Yarbrough TB (5-3 5.59 ERA), J.A. Happ NYY (6-3 4.66 ERA)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Game Analysis

Time: 7:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Philadelphia Phillies 39-32 11 -0.57 4.87 4.79 Matchup and Bet Value
Washington Nationals 33-38 14 -10.85 4.96 4.94
Starting Pitchers: Jake Arrieta PHI (6-5 4.31 ERA), Patrick Corbin WAS (5-5 4.11 ERA)

Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays Game Analysis

Time: 7:07 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Los Angeles Angels 36-37 19 -2.36 5.11 5.08 Matchup and Bet Value
Toronto Blue Jays 26-46 26 -15.76 3.96 5.13
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Skaggs LAA (5-6 5 ERA), Marcus Stroman TOR (4-8 3.18 ERA)

Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds Game Analysis

Time: 7:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Houston Astros 48-25 2 4.11 5.19 3.81 Matchup and Bet Value
Cincinnati Reds 32-38 21 -6.19 4.27 3.71
Starting Pitchers: Justin Verlander HOU (9-2 2.41 ERA), Anthony DeSclafani CIN (3-3 4.43 ERA)

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Game Analysis

Time: 7:20 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
New York Mets 34-37 13 -7.31 4.69 5.07 Matchup and Bet Value
Atlanta Braves 43-30 8 4.72 5.45 4.79
Starting Pitchers: Jacob deGrom NYM (3-6 3.38 ERA), Julio Teheran ATL (5-4 2.92 ERA)

Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs Game Analysis

Time: 8:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Chicago White Sox 33-36 25 3.48 4.35 5.19 Matchup and Bet Value
Chicago Cubs 39-32 9 -1.25 5.11 4.25
Starting Pitchers: Ivan Nova CHW (3-5 6.28 ERA), Cole Hamels CHC (6-2 2.98 ERA)

Cleveland Indians vs. Texas Rangers Game Analysis

Time: 8:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Cleveland Indians 37-34 18 -4.57 4.25 4.2 Matchup and Bet Value
Texas Rangers 39-33 22 11.44 5.65 5.11
Starting Pitchers: Zach Plesac CLE (1-2 2.92 ERA), Adrian Sampson TEX (5-3 4.21 ERA)

Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Game Analysis

Time: 8:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Boston Red Sox 40-34 4 -6.83 5.35 4.66 Matchup and Bet Value
Minnesota Twins 47-24 6 13.95 5.87 4.27
Starting Pitchers: David Price BOS (4-2 3.52 ERA), Michael Pineda MIN (4-3 5.04 ERA)

Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Game Analysis

Time: 8:15 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Miami Marlins 25-45 27 -8.05 3.43 4.59 Matchup and Bet Value
St. Louis Cardinals 36-34 10 -1.69 4.7 4.47
Starting Pitchers: Jordan Yamamoto MIA (1-0 0 ERA), Jack Flaherty STL (4-3 4.28 ERA)

Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Game Analysis

Time: 9:40 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Colorado Rockies 37-34 12 -0.37 5.7 5.54 Matchup and Bet Value
Arizona Diamondbacks 38-35 16 4.44 5.26 4.47
Starting Pitchers: Antonio Senzatela COL (5-5 5.48 ERA), Merrill Kelly ARI (7-6 3.73 ERA)

Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics Game Analysis

Time: 10:07 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Baltimore Orioles 21-51 30 -17.23 3.97 6.08 Matchup and Bet Value
Oakland Athletics 37-34 15 -1.06 4.86 4.49
Starting Pitchers: Gabriel Ynoa BAL (0-3 5.02 ERA), Brett Anderson OAK (6-4 3.89 ERA)

Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners Game Analysis

Time: 10:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Kansas City Royals 24-47 28 -16.38 4.24 5.17 Matchup and Bet Value
Seattle Mariners 29-45 24 -14.11 5.15 6.14
Starting Pitchers: Homer Bailey KC (5-6 5.37 ERA), Yusei Kikuchi SEA (3-4 4.78 ERA)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres Game Analysis

Time: 10:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Milwaukee Brewers 40-32 3 3.6 5.01 4.88 Matchup and Bet Value
San Diego Padres 36-37 17 -2.2 4.34 4.84
Starting Pitchers: Brandon Woodruff MIL (8-1 3.87 ERA), Logan Allen SD (0-0 0 ERA)

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Game Analysis

Time: 10:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
San Francisco Giants 31-39 23 -1.88 3.84 5 Matchup and Bet Value
Los Angeles Dodgers 48-25 1 4.69 5.11 3.6
Starting Pitchers: Shaun Anderson SF (2-1 3.97 ERA), Clayton Kershaw LAD (6-1 3.13 ERA)

Tomorrow’s MLB Game Predictions – Wednesday, June 19th, 2019

Time (ET) Matchup Teams Prob Pitchers Money Line Prediction Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
12:35 PM Astros vs. Reds Astros Gerrit Cole
-165
61.6%
4.28
7.68
Reds Tyler Mahle
+155
38.4%
3.39
1:05 PM Phillies vs. Nationals Phillies Undecided
-103
49.7%
4.21
8.45
Nationals Undecided
-106
50.3%
4.24
1:05 PM Rays vs. Yankees Rays Blake Snell
-134
56.3%
3.35
6.31
Yankees CC Sabathia
+124
43.7%
2.95
3:37 PM Orioles vs. Athletics Orioles Undecided
+237
29.2%
3.02
7.64
Athletics Chris Bassitt
-247
70.8%
4.61
3:40 PM Brewers vs. Padres Brewers Zach Davies
-105
50.2%
3.14
6.28
Padres Matt Strahm
-104
49.8%
3.13
6:40 PM Royals vs. Mariners Royals Brad Keller
+115
45.2%
3.19
6.70
Mariners Marco Gonzales
-125
54.8%
3.51
7:05 PM Tigers vs. Pirates Tigers Undecided
+227
30%
2.76
6.90
Pirates Trevor Williams
-237
70%
4.14
7:05 PM Phillies vs. Nationals Phillies Nick Pivetta
+151
39%
3.03
6.83
Nationals Max Scherzer
-161
61%
3.79
7:07 PM Angels vs. Blue Jays Angels Andrew Heaney
-132
56.1%
4.16
7.84
Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez
+122
43.9%
3.68
7:20 PM Mets vs. Braves Mets Steven Matz
+155
38.4%
3.66
8.28
Braves Max Fried
-165
61.6%
4.62
8:05 PM White Sox vs. Cubs White Sox Lucas Giolito
+157
38.1%
2.93
6.65
Cubs Jon Lester
-167
61.9%
3.72
8:05 PM Indians vs. Rangers Indians Adam Plutko
-104
49.8%
4.41
8.85
Rangers Undecided
-105
50.2%
4.43
8:10 PM Red Sox vs. Twins Red Sox Undecided
+111
46.2%
3.75
7.79
Twins Kyle Gibson
-121
53.8%
4.04
8:15 PM Marlins vs. Cardinals Marlins Trevor Richards
+196
33.2%
3.09
7.44
Cardinals Daniel Ponce de Leon
-206
66.8%
4.34
9:40 PM Rockies vs. D-backs Rockies Jon Gray
+117
45%
2.97
6.25
D-backs Zack Greinke
-127
55%
3.28
10:10 PM Giants vs. Dodgers Giants Drew Pomeranz
+251
28.1%
2.58
6.62
Dodgers Rich Hill
-261
71.9%
4.03

Yesterday’s MLB Game Prediction Results

Date Teams SB Consensus DRatings Odds to Win1 Final Score Sportsbook Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
6/17 NYM +151 0.435 3 -0.48616 -0.57093
ATL -175 0.565 12
6/17 MIA +172 0.297 0 -0.43631 -0.3524
STL -205 0.703 5
6/17 MIL +100 0.532 0 -0.65059 -0.75929
SD -120 0.468 2
6/17 SF +203 0.277 3 -1.14795 -1.28374
LAD -245 0.723 2
6/17 TB +120 0.448 0 -0.57618 -0.59421
NYY -140 0.552 3
6/17 LAA -155 0.555 10 -0.51372 -0.58879
TOR +145 0.445 5
6/17 CLE -125 0.56 2 -0.76029 -0.82098
TEX +105 0.44 7
6/17 BOS +130 0.44 2 -0.85086 -0.82098
MIN -140 0.56 0
6/17 BAL +184 0.323 2 -0.41354 -0.39008
OAK -220 0.677 3
6/17 KC +100 0.363 6 -0.71668 -1.01335
SEA -110 0.637 4
6/17 HOU -105 0.546 2 -0.67171 -0.78966
CIN -115 0.454 3

Above are our results from each game yesterday. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.

MLB Season Prediction Results

Yesterday
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 11 7 4 0 0.636 -0.65673
DRatings 11 5 6 0 0.455 -0.72585
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 94 53 36 5 0.59 -0.67146
DRatings 94 51 43 0 0.543 -0.69497
Last Month
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 385 222 141 22 0.605 -0.66758
DRatings 385 217 168 0 0.564 -0.68244
2019
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 1072 612 405 55 0.597 -0.67356
DRatings 1072 620 451 1 0.579 -0.68043
All Time
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 3531 2036 1413 82 0.588 -0.67311
DRatings 3531 2021 1500 10 0.574 -0.67731

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against the sportsbook consensus. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks. Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this creiteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.