MLB Baseball Predictions

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only. If you do wish to gamble on baseball then I highly suggest reading my blog post: The Top 5 Online Sportsbooks for U.S. Players.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.

All upcoming MLB baseball predictions are listed below. There, you will find the odds of winning, predicted score and estimated money line. We hope you enjoy.

Today’s MLB Game Predictions – Thursday, October 17th, 2019

Time Teams Prob Pitchers Lines – Updated 10/17 @ 9:20 am Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
8:08 PM Astros Zack Greinke
Yankees Masahiro Tanaka

Today’s MLB Picks and Game Analysis

Below are a few advanced metrics on the games played today. If there is an orange check mark in the “More Info” section of the game summary, then there is at least one bet in the game that we would recommend.

Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees Game Analysis

Time: 8:08 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Houston Astros 112-58 1 -0.53 5.56 3.93 Matchup and Bet Value
New York Yankees 107-61 3 11.15 5.81 4.48
Starting Pitchers: Zack Greinke HOU (18-5 2.93 ERA), Masahiro Tanaka NYY (11-9 4.45 ERA)

Tomorrow’s MLB Game Predictions – Friday, October 19th, 2019

Time (ET) Matchup Teams Prob Pitchers Money Line Prediction Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
Game analysis not available yet

Yesterday’s MLB Game Prediction Results

Date Teams SB Consensus DRatings Odds to Win1 Final Score Sportsbook Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
10/15 HOU -155 0.566 4 -0.51372 -0.56916
NYY +145 0.434 1
10/15 STL +150 0.4 4 -0.50078 -0.51083
WAS -160 0.6 7

Above are our results from each game yesterday. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.

MLB Season Prediction Results

Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 2 2 0 0 1 -0.50725
DRatings 2 2 0 0 1 -0.53999
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 10 6 4 0 0.6 -0.63675
DRatings 10 7 3 0 0.7 -0.63691
Last Month
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 203 126 76 1 0.623 -0.64505
DRatings 203 121 82 0 0.596 -0.65728
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 2456 1466 966 24 0.602 -0.66201
DRatings 2456 1430 1014 12 0.585 -0.66901
All Time
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 4915 2890 1974 51 0.593 -0.66544
DRatings 4915 2831 2063 21 0.578 -0.67176

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against the sportsbook consensus. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks. Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this criteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.