MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 4, 2023

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Miami Marlins (84-77)
Philadelphia Phillies (90-72)
Braxton Garrett
Aaron Nola
41.6%
58.4%
+140
-145
+138
-147
+1½-160
-1½+147
+1½-155
-1½+148
3.71
4.60
8.31
o8-108
u8-105
o8-105
u8-105
Games for Oct 3, 2023

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78)
Milwaukee Brewers (92-70)
51.3%
48.7%
+123
-131
+121
-130
+1½-178
-1½+165
+1½-178
-1½+165
7.75
o7½+100
u7½-103
o7½+100
u7½-115
2nd
BOT
0
2

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Toronto Blue Jays
Minnesota Twins
47.7%
52.3%
+136
-143
+135
-140
+1½-168
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+155
0
2
-0.54235-0.54782-0.64781
Texas Rangers
Tampa Bay Rays
46.4%
53.6%
+137
-145
+136
-141
+1½-153
-1½+143
+1½-155
-1½+150
7
1
-0.87659-0.86741-0.76895
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
41.5%
58.5%
+141
-148
+148
-157
+1½-150
-1½+145
+1½-155
-1½+141
1
4
-0.52787-0.50687-0.53679
Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers
37.6%
62.4%
+156
-163
+161
-170
+1½-135
-1½+122
+1½-130
-1½+122
6
3
-0.95034-0.97204-0.97944
Toronto Blue Jays
Minnesota Twins
51.0%
49.0%
+115
-119
+112
-116
+1½-191
-1½+173
+1½-190
-1½+175
1
3
-0.61841-0.63038-0.71415
Texas Rangers
Tampa Bay Rays
45.0%
55.0%
+144
-153
+145
-155
+1½-150
-1½+147
+1½-158
-1½+145
4
0
-0.90646-0.91198-0.79949
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
49.8%
50.2%
-114
+106
-115
+106
-1½+142
+1½-157
-1½+140
+1½-159
3
4
-0.74068-0.74282-0.69013
Minnesota Twins
Colorado Rockies
64.0%
36.0%
-147
+141
-150
+143
-1½-108
+1½-108
-1½-104
+1½-110
2
3
-0.88965-0.89936-1.02104
San Diego Padres
Chicago White Sox
55.8%
44.2%
-190
+180
-200
+185
-1½-133
+1½+125
-1½-135
+1½+130
2
1
-0.43510-0.42286-0.58295
Houston Astros
Arizona Diamondbacks
52.4%
47.6%
-215
+197
-200
+197
-1½-130
+1½+122
-1½-125
+1½+120
8
1
-0.40099-0.40883-0.64561
New York Yankees
Kansas City Royals
55.9%
44.1%
-129
+123
-131
+122
-1½+122
+1½-135
-1½+122
+1½-140
2
5
-0.81369-0.81491-0.81823
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
44.9%
55.1%
+105
-113
+110
-115
+1½-200
-1½+180
+1½-195
-1½+183
0
1
-0.65204-0.63673-0.59578
Cleveland Guardians
Detroit Tigers
46.9%
53.1%
+110
-116
+112
-115
+1½-193
-1½+172
+1½-185
-1½+180
2
5
-0.63482-0.63228-0.63220
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
48.6%
51.4%
+125
-134
+125
-130
+1½-163
-1½+147
+1½-160
-1½+150
0
4
-0.57442-0.58016-0.66464
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
53.9%
46.1%
+109
-116
+110
-118
+1½-183
-1½+170
+1½-180
-1½+170
9
1
-0.75256-0.75927-0.61804
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
44.4%
55.6%
-106
+100
-105
-105
-1½+145
+1½-158

12
8
-0.67889-0.69315-0.81121
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.64894 
Sportsbooks32-1 (0.667)0-0.64070 
DRatings32-1 (0.667)0-0.65118
-0.00225
-0.01048

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.