MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 27, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Los Angeles Dodgers (16-11)
Toronto Blue Jays (13-13)
Tyler Glasnow
Yusei Kikuchi
59.2%
40.8%
-144
+135
-145
+140
-1½+110
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-120
4.43
3.46
7.89
o7½-115
u7½+102
o8-105
u8-105
St. Louis Cardinals (11-14)
New York Mets (13-11)
Sonny Gray
Adrian Houser
49.0%
51.0%
-121
+113
-125
+115
-1½+139
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-150
3.99
4.09
8.08
o7½-110
u7½-103
o7½-110
u7½+100
Oakland Athletics (10-16)
Baltimore Orioles (16-8)
JP Sears
Cole Irvin
37.0%
63.0%
+165
-168
+159
-168
+1½-138
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+122
3.76
5.12
8.88
o8-110
u8-103
o8-115
u8½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cincinnati Reds (14-11)
Texas Rangers (13-13)
Hunter Greene
Michael Lorenzen
47.9%
52.1%
+116
-124
+115
-122
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-175
-1½+160
4.03
4.24
8.27
o9+107
u9-122
o9+100
u9-105
Overall Bet Value Active
Washington Nationals (10-14)
Miami Marlins (6-20)
Mitchell Parker
Edward Cabrera
39.9%
60.1%
+120
-130
+120
-128
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-175
-1½+164
3.50
4.57
8.07
o7½-118
u7½+103
o7½-110
u7½-105
Chicago Cubs (16-9)
Boston Red Sox (14-12)
Undecided Undecided
Josh Winckowski
54.9%
45.1%

-116
+106

-1½+136
+1½-155
5.14
4.63
9.77

o8½-120
u8½+100
Houston Astros (7-19)
Colorado Rockies (7-19)
Ronel Blanco
Cal Quantrill
67.8%
32.2%
-205
+188
-205
+190
-1½-150
+1½+137
-1½-150
+1½+135
6.04
4.21
10.25
o17-103
u17-110
o17-105
u17-110
Overall Bet Value Active
Kansas City Royals (16-10)
Detroit Tigers (14-11)
Brady Singer
Casey Mize
45.7%
54.3%
+104
-112
+104
-108
+1½-210
-1½+180
+1½-204
-1½+190
3.92
4.37
8.29
o8-113
u8-103
o7½-120
u8-110
Tampa Bay Rays (13-13)
Chicago White Sox (3-22)
Aaron Civale
Jonathan Cannon
68.0%
32.0%
-217
+202
-220
+213
-1½-135
+1½+115
-1½-135
+1½+125
5.57
3.72
9.29
o8-108
u8-108
o7½-115
u8-110
All Bet Values Active
New York Yankees (17-9)
Milwaukee Brewers (16-8)
Carlos Rodón
Joe Ross
45.0%
55.0%
-126
+118
-125
+120
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+127
+1½-135
4.13
4.65
8.78
o8½-108
u8½-105
o8½-105
u8½-102
Cleveland Guardians (18-7)
Atlanta Braves (17-6)
Tanner Bibee
Charlie Morton
40.7%
59.3%
+167
-174
+164
-175
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-130
-1½+115
3.54
4.52
8.06
o8½-118
u8½+102
o8½-125
u9-115
Philadelphia Phillies (16-10)
San Diego Padres (14-14)
Ranger Suárez
Dylan Cease
45.1%
54.9%
+103
-111
+103
-110
+1½-210
-1½+185
+1½-210
-1½+190
3.52
4.03
7.55
o7½+105
u7½-118
o7-120
u7½-120
Pittsburgh Pirates (13-13)
San Francisco Giants (12-14)
Martín Pérez
Jordan Hicks
49.0%
51.0%
+135
-139
+132
-140
+1½-167
-1½+147
+1½-170
-1½+155
4.20
4.31
8.51
o8+102
u8-118
o8+100
u7½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Minnesota Twins (11-13)
Los Angeles Angels (10-15)
Chris Paddack
José Soriano
52.4%
47.6%
+113
-121
+115
-123
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-175
-1½+160
4.69
4.44
9.13
o8½+102
u8½-115
o8½+100
u8½-110
Arizona Diamondbacks (12-14)
Seattle Mariners (13-12)
Slade Cecconi
George Kirby
42.6%
57.4%
+140
-150
+145
-157
+1½-155
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+140
3.96
4.73
8.69
o7½-113
u7½-103
o7½-115
u7½-105
Games for Apr 26, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Francisco Giants
39.2%
60.8%
+134
-139
+135
-140
+1½-163
-1½+150
+1½-160
-1½+150
0
3
-0.55088-0.54782-0.49816
Arizona Diamondbacks
Seattle Mariners
55.2%
44.8%
-123
+116
-122
+117
-1½+137
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-145
1
6
-0.78454-0.78504-0.80229
Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres
52.6%
47.4%
-107
+100
-108
+100
-1½+157
+1½-173
-1½+160
+1½-170
9
3
-0.67666-0.67446-0.64223
Minnesota Twins
Los Angeles Angels
53.1%
46.9%
+105
-112
+107
-112

-1½+170
+1½-180
5
3
-0.73382-0.73888-0.63207
New York Yankees
Milwaukee Brewers
43.0%
57.0%
-133
+125
-134
+128
-1½+127
+1½-141
-1½+140
+1½-145
6
7
-0.82608-0.83536-0.56131
Cincinnati Reds
Texas Rangers
41.7%
58.3%
+154
-161
+155
-165
+1½-138
-1½+125
+1½-135
-1½+120
1
2
-0.49362-0.48848-0.53950
Tampa Bay Rays
Chicago White Sox
63.9%
36.1%
-215
+202
-220
+205
-1½-128
+1½+118
-1½-135
+1½+120
4
9
-1.11884-1.13038-1.01913
Cleveland Guardians
Atlanta Braves
35.7%
64.3%
+232
-245
+235
-260
+1½+115
-1½-128
+1½+110
-1½-128
2
6
-0.35357-0.34595-0.44234
Chicago Cubs
Boston Red Sox
55.5%
44.5%
-105
-102
-103
-105

+1½-220
-1½+192
7
1
-0.68605-0.69788-0.58927
St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets
42.5%
57.5%
+113
-120
+116
-122
+1½-188
-1½+172
+1½-180
-1½+165
4
2
-0.77096-0.78255-0.85461
Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
40.6%
59.4%
+112
-120
+114
-122
+1½-188
-1½+167
+1½-180
-1½+170
3
1
-0.76841-0.77751-0.90254
Los Angeles Dodgers
Toronto Blue Jays
49.6%
50.4%
-118
+109
-117
+113
-1½+134
+1½-148
-1½+135
+1½-150
12
2
-0.63337-0.62633-0.70124
Oakland Athletics
Baltimore Orioles
26.2%
73.8%
+244
-270
+263
-280
+1½+147
-1½-135
+1½+130
-1½-140
3
2
-1.25569-1.30148-1.33869
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
47.3%
52.7%
+114
-122
+119
-124
+1½-183
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+170
8
0
-0.77751-0.79405-0.74940
Oakland Athletics
New York Yankees
31.0%
69.0%
+243
-264
+235
-260
+1½+120
-1½-133
+1½+125
-1½-128
3
1
-1.24921-1.22946-1.17260
Los Angeles Dodgers
Washington Nationals
62.2%
37.8%
-164
+154
-169
+156
-1½-102
+1½-108
-1½-104
+1½-110
2
1
-0.49089-0.48352-0.47480
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks146-8 (0.429)0-0.74500 
Sportsbooks145-9 (0.357)0-0.75187 
DRatings147-7 (0.500)0-0.73377
0.01123
0.01810

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.