MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 10, 2021

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
Line
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Miami Marlins (1-6)
New York Mets (2-2)
Trevor Rogers
Jacob deGrom
30.2%
69.8%
+237
-260
+242
-260
3.12
5.14
8.27
o6½-120
u6½+100
o7+105
u6½+105
New York Yankees (3-4)
Tampa Bay Rays (3-4)
Domingo German
Chris Archer
56.0%
44.0%
-131
+121
-124
+120
4.63
4.00
8.63
o9-115
u9-101
o9-115
u9+100
Seattle Mariners (3-4)
Minnesota Twins (5-2)
Yusei Kikuchi
Michael Pineda
34.5%
65.5%
+157
-171
+162
-170
4.36
5.97
10.33
o8-105
u8-110
o8-110
u8-105
PostponedKansas City Royals (3-3)
Chicago White Sox (4-4)
Mike Minor
Dylan Cease
39.9%
60.1%


4.37
5.43
9.81


Milwaukee Brewers (3-4)
St. Louis Cardinals (5-2)
Adrian Houser
Carlos Martinez
44.2%
55.8%
+102
-108
+100
-110
4.63
5.24
9.87
o8+100
u8-115
o8+100
u8-120
Colorado Rockies (3-5)
San Francisco Giants (4-3)
Chi Chi Gonzalez
Logan Webb
42.9%
57.1%
+161
-175
+164
-175
4.27
5.01
9.28
o8½-102
u8½-115
o8½+100
u8½-115
Oakland Athletics (2-7)
Houston Astros (6-2)
Frankie Montas
Jose Urquidy
38.4%
61.6%
+139
-149
+141
-147
4.32
5.54
9.86
o9-105
u9-110
o9-110
u9-105
Detroit Tigers (3-4)
Cleveland Indians (3-3)
Tarik Skubal
Aaron Civale
42.2%
57.8%
+147
-157
+152
-160
4.85
5.66
10.51
o9-101
u9-105
o9-105
u9+100
Chicago Cubs (4-3)
Pittsburgh Pirates (1-6)
Zach Davies
Mitch Keller
58.5%
41.5%
-149
+139
-150
+142
4.93
4.03
8.96
o8½-114
u8½-105
o8½-110
u8½-105
Boston Red Sox (4-3)
Baltimore Orioles (4-3)
Garrett Richards
Bruce Zimmerman
49.2%
50.8%
-128
+118
-127
+120
5.30
5.39
10.69
o9½-105
u9½-110
o9½-105
u9½-115
San Diego Padres (5-3)
Texas Rangers (3-4)
Chris Paddack
Jordan Lyles
59.7%
40.3%
-152
+142
-150
+150
6.51
5.50
12.01
o9+100
u9-115
o9+100
u9-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Los Angeles Angels (6-2)
Toronto Blue Jays (3-5)
Jose Quintana
Steven Matz
51.9%
48.1%
+104
-114
+110
-115
5.54
5.34
10.89
o10½-107
u10½-110
o10½+100
u10½-110
Philadelphia Phillies (5-2)
Atlanta Braves (3-4)
Zach Eflin
Ian Anderson
42.1%
57.9%
+126
-135
+128
-131
4.34
5.17
9.51
o8-110
u8-110
o8-110
u8-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cincinnati Reds (6-1)
Arizona Diamondbacks (2-6)
Jeff Hoffman
Riley Smith
56.4%
43.6%
-125
+116
-126
+120
4.89
4.22
9.11
o9½-110
u9½-105
o9½-115
u9½+100
Washington Nationals (1-3)
Los Angeles Dodgers (6-2)
Undecided
Julio Urias
33.7%
66.3%


3.81
5.50
9.30


Games for Apr 9, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
Line
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Cincinnati Reds
Arizona Diamondbacks
57.9%
42.1%
-145
+135
-135
+137
6
5
-0.54173-0.55071-0.54654
Oakland Athletics
Houston Astros
46.1%
53.9%
+164
-178
+165
-172
6
2
-0.98967-0.98422-0.77481
San Diego Padres
Texas Rangers
57.8%
42.2%
-190
+179
-183
+177
3
0
-0.43635-0.44359-0.54806
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
49.6%
50.4%
+117
-121
+118
-122
1
8
-0.61068-0.60690-0.68536
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians
34.6%
65.4%
+170
-182
+175
-180
1
4
-0.45353-0.44830-0.42460
Los Angeles Angels
Toronto Blue Jays
46.5%
53.5%
-125
+118
-122
+115
7
1
-0.60195-0.61323-0.76636
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks97-2 (0.778)0-0.58896 
Sportsbooks97-2 (0.778)0-0.58910 
DRatings96-3 (0.667)0-0.61601
-0.02705
-0.02691

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.