MLB Baseball Predictions

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only. If you do wish to gamble on baseball then I highly suggest reading my blog post: The Top 5 Online Sportsbooks for U.S. Players.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.

All upcoming MLB baseball predictions are listed below. There, you will find the odds of winning, predicted score and estimated money line. We hope you enjoy.

Today’s MLB Game Predictions – Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019

Time Teams Prob Pitchers Lines – Updated 4/23 @ 4:27 pm Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
Over/Under
1:05 PM Tigers Matthew Boyd
+199
+190
+180
o8 +105
28%
2.81
7.23
Red Sox Chris Sale
-215
-220
-220
u8 -115
72%
4.41
6:10 PM Marlins Pablo Lopez
+203
+180
+190
o7½ -110
34.6%
3.77
8.92
Indians Carlos Carrasco
-220
-210
-210
u7½ +100
65.4%
5.15
6:40 PM Braves Kevin Gausman
-114
-119
-115
o9½ +102
55.2%
3.90
7.42
Reds Sonny Gray
+104
-101
+105
u9½ -112
44.8%
3.51
7:05 PM White Sox Ivan Nova
-133
-140
-135
o9½ -107
53.2%
4.63
8.98
Orioles Andrew Cashner
+123
+120
+125
u9½ -103
46.8%
4.35
7:05 PM D-backs Luke Weaver
-105
-110
-102
o8 -110
46.9%
3.87
7.99
Pirates Taylor Williams
-105
-110
-108
u8 +100
53.1%
4.12
7:07 PM Giants Jeff Samardzija
+105
-102
+105
o8½ -102
46.4%
4.11
8.52
Blue Jays Trent Thornton
-115
-118
-115
u8½ -108
53.6%
4.41
7:10 PM Tigers Spencer Turnbull
+165
+155
+165
o9 +100
28.5%
2.75
7.01
Red Sox Hector Velazquez
-175
-180
-175
u9 -110
71.5%
4.26
7:10 PM Royals Homer Bailey
+174
+165
+175
o8½ +102
35.2%
3.14
7.37
Rays Ryne Stanek
-185
-190
-185
u8½ -112
64.8%
4.23
7:10 PM Phillies Zach Eflin
+118
+115
+120
o9½ -105
46.6%
3.19
6.61
Mets Zack Wheeler
-128
-135
-150
u9½ -125
53.4%
3.41
7:45 PM Brewers Zach Davies
+104
-103
+104
o9 +101
53.6%
3.22
6.21
Cardinals Daniel Poncedeleon
-114
-117
-114
u9 -111
46.4%
2.99
8:05 PM Dodgers Kenta Maeda
-101
-102
+100
o8 -105
48.8%
3.60
7.30
Cubs Jose Quintana
-109
-118
-110
u8 -105
51.2%
3.69
8:10 PM Twins Michael Pineda
+128
+127
+133
o9½ -110
28.5%
2.96
7.56
Astros Wade Miley
-138
-147
-143
u9½ +100
71.5%
4.59
8:40 PM Nationals Patrick Corbin
-146
No Odds
-147
o10½ -114
61.3%
4.43
7.97
Rockies Undecided
+136
No Odds
+137
u10½ +104
38.7%
3.53
10:07 PM Rangers Lance Lynn
+138
+133
+138
o8 -110
37.9%
2.95
6.72
Athletics Frankie Montas
-148
-153
-148
u8 +100
62.1%
3.76
10:07 PM Yankees Domingo German
-111
-110
-106
o9 +105
60%
4.86
8.83
Angels Chris Stratton
+101
-110
-104
u9 -115
40%
3.97
10:10 PM Mariners Erik Swanson
+116
+105
+113
o8 -110
47.3%
3.82
7.86
Padres Nick Margevicius
-126
-125
-123
u8 +100
52.7%
4.03

Today’s MLB Picks and Game Analysis

Below are a few advanced metrics on the games played today. If there is an orange check mark in the “More Info” section of the game summary, then there is at least one bet in the game that we would recommend.

Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Game Analysis

Time: 1:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Detroit Tigers 10-10 28 1.64 3.05 3.7 Matchup and Bet Value
Boston Red Sox 9-13 4 -5.82 4.23 5.95
Starting Pitchers: Matthew Boyd DET (1-1 2.96 ERA), Chris Sale BOS (0-4 8.5 ERA)

Miami Marlins vs. Cleveland Indians Game Analysis

Time: 6:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Miami Marlins 6-16 29 -7.41 2.73 4.86 Matchup and Bet Value
Cleveland Indians 12-9 10 -0.19 3.95 4
Starting Pitchers: Pablo Lopez MIA (1-3 5.85 ERA), Carlos Carrasco CLE (1-2 12.6 ERA)

Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Game Analysis

Time: 6:40 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Atlanta Braves 11-10 16 0.93 5.43 4.9 Matchup and Bet Value
Cincinnati Reds 8-13 23 -5.76 3.43 3.24
Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman ATL (1-1 2.84 ERA), Sonny Gray CIN (0-2 2.03 ERA)

Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Game Analysis

Time: 7:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Chicago White Sox 9-12 26 -1.18 5.05 5.52 Matchup and Bet Value
Baltimore Orioles 8-16 30 0.67 4.38 6.71
Starting Pitchers: Ivan Nova CHW (0-2 5.28 ERA), Andrew Cashner BAL (3-1 5.31 ERA)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Game Analysis

Time: 7:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Arizona Diamondbacks 12-11 20 3.09 5.35 4.96 Matchup and Bet Value
Pittsburgh Pirates 12-8 12 3.71 3.6 3.55
Starting Pitchers: Luke Weaver ARI (0-1 5.17 ERA), Taylor Williams PIT (0-1 10.38 ERA)

San Francisco Giants vs. Toronto Blue Jays Game Analysis

Time: 7:07 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
San Francisco Giants 9-14 25 -3.07 2.91 3.48 Matchup and Bet Value
Toronto Blue Jays 11-12 24 1.36 4.13 3.83
Starting Pitchers: Jeff Samardzija SF (1-0 1.62 ERA), Trent Thornton TOR (0-1 4.61 ERA)

Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Game Analysis

Time: 7:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Detroit Tigers 10-10 28 1.64 3.05 3.7 Matchup and Bet Value
Boston Red Sox 9-13 4 -5.82 4.23 5.95
Starting Pitchers: Spencer Turnbull DET (0-2 4.8 ERA), Hector Velazquez BOS (0-1 2.84 ERA)

Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Game Analysis

Time: 7:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Kansas City Royals 7-16 27 -7.85 4.43 5.43 Matchup and Bet Value
Tampa Bay Rays 15-8 5 3.31 4.91 2.96
Starting Pitchers: Homer Bailey KC (1-1 5.29 ERA), Ryne Stanek TB (0-0 2.16 ERA)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Game Analysis

Time: 7:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Philadelphia Phillies 12-10 15 -0.43 5.32 4.95 Matchup and Bet Value
New York Mets 12-10 14 1.02 5.41 6.09
Starting Pitchers: Zach Eflin PHI (2-1 3.94 ERA), Zack Wheeler NYM (1-1 7.47 ERA)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Game Analysis

Time: 7:45 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Milwaukee Brewers 13-11 3 1 4.92 5.33 Matchup and Bet Value
St. Louis Cardinals 13-9 7 3.93 5.82 4.5
Starting Pitchers: Zach Davies MIL (2-0 1.53 ERA), Daniel Poncedeleon STL (0-0 0 ERA)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs Game Analysis

Time: 8:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Los Angeles Dodgers 15-9 2 0.83 5.67 4.46 Matchup and Bet Value
Chicago Cubs 10-10 8 -2.53 5.5 4.65
Starting Pitchers: Kenta Maeda LAD (3-1 3.8 ERA), Jose Quintana CHC (2-1 3.43 ERA)

Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros Game Analysis

Time: 8:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Minnesota Twins 13-7 18 5.12 5.8 4.6 Matchup and Bet Value
Houston Astros 13-9 1 -0.51 4.68 3.95
Starting Pitchers: Michael Pineda MIN (2-0 3 ERA), Wade Miley HOU (1-1 3.45 ERA)

Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies Game Analysis

Time: 8:40 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Washington Nationals 10-11 11 -2.13 5.43 5.05 Matchup and Bet Value
Colorado Rockies 10-13 13 -3.62 3.7 4.39
Starting Pitchers: Patrick Corbin WAS (0-0 2.84 ERA), Undecided COL N/A

Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics Game Analysis

Time: 10:07 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Texas Rangers 12-9 21 7.24 5.57 5.38 Matchup and Bet Value
Oakland Athletics 12-11 9 0.28 4.57 4.48
Starting Pitchers: Lance Lynn TEX (1-1 4.82 ERA), Frankie Montas OAK (2-1 3.18 ERA)

New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels Game Analysis

Time: 10:07 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
New York Yankees 12-10 6 -3.02 5.14 3.86 Matchup and Bet Value
Los Angeles Angels 9-14 19 -5.4 4.3 4.83
Starting Pitchers: Domingo German NYY (3-0 1.38 ERA), Chris Stratton LAA (0-1 5.54 ERA)

Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres Game Analysis

Time: 10:10 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Runs PG Opp Runs PG More Info
Seattle Mariners 14-9 17 4.71 6.35 5.09 Matchup and Bet Value
San Diego Padres 12-11 22 0.16 3.35 4.09
Starting Pitchers: Erik Swanson SEA (0-0 9 ERA), Nick Margevicius SD (1-2 3.6 ERA)

Tomorrow’s MLB Game Predictions – Wednesday, April 24th, 2019

Time (ET) Matchup Teams Prob Pitchers Money Line Prediction Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Runs
1:10 PM Marlins vs. Indians Marlins Sandy Alcantara
+150
39.1%
3.99
8.96
Indians Undecided
-160
60.9%
4.97
1:10 PM Royals vs. Rays Royals Jakob Junis
+151
39.1%
3.48
7.82
Rays Undecided
-161
60.9%
4.34
1:15 PM Brewers vs. Cardinals Brewers Jhoulys Chacin
-110
51.4%
3.91
7.72
Cardinals Adam Wainwright
+100
48.6%
3.80
3:10 PM Nationals vs. Rockies Nationals Anibal Sanchez
+150
39.2%
3.47
7.79
Rockies German Marquez
-160
60.8%
4.31
3:37 PM Rangers vs. Athletics Rangers Drew Smyly
+162
37.4%
3.35
7.68
Athletics Aaron Brooks
-172
62.6%
4.32
3:40 PM Mariners vs. Padres Mariners Felix Hernandez
+141
40.5%
3.78
8.36
Padres Chris Paddack
-151
59.5%
4.58
4:07 PM Giants vs. Blue Jays Giants Drew Pomeranz
+167
36.7%
3.10
7.16
Blue Jays Clay Buchholz
-177
63.3%
4.05
6:40 PM Braves vs. Reds Braves Mike Soroka
+104
47.7%
3.81
7.81
Reds Tanner Roark
-114
52.3%
3.99
7:05 PM White Sox vs. Orioles White Sox Ervin Santana
+113
45.7%
4.81
10.0
Orioles John Means
-123
54.3%
5.24
7:05 PM D-backs vs. Pirates D-backs Merrill Kelly
+173
35.9%
2.76
6.43
Pirates Jordan Lyles
-183
64.1%
3.67
7:10 PM Tigers vs. Red Sox Tigers Tyson Ross
+218
30.9%
3.17
7.83
Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez
-228
69.1%
4.66
7:10 PM Phillies vs. Mets Phillies Undecided
-100
49%
3.95
7.99
Mets Jason Vargas
-109
51%
4.04
8:05 PM Dodgers vs. Cubs Dodgers Walker Buehler
+120
44.4%
3.09
6.55
Cubs Cole Hamels
-130
55.6%
3.46
8:10 PM Twins vs. Astros Twins Undecided
+251
28%
2.81
7.21
Astros Justin Verlander
-261
72%
4.39
10:07 PM Yankees vs. Angels Yankees CC Sabathia
-169
62.2%
3.95
7.05
Angels Felix Pena
+159
37.8%
3.09

Yesterday’s MLB Game Prediction Results

Date Teams SB Consensus DRatings Odds to Win1 Final Score Sportsbook Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
4/22 ARI +129 0.379 12 -0.84837 -0.97022
PIT -140 0.621 4
4/22 PHI -110 0.571 1 -0.72178 -0.8463
NYM +102 0.429 5
4/22 MIL +175 0.431 5 -0.44481 -0.56387
STL -185 0.569 13
4/22 WAS +129 0.478 5 -0.5601 -0.65009
COL -139 0.522 7
4/22 CHW -104 0.479 12 -0.69315 -0.73605
BAL -104 0.521 2
4/22 KC +170 0.479 3 -0.45497 -0.65201
TB -180 0.521 6
4/22 MIN +165 0.385 9 -0.99457 -0.95451
HOU -180 0.615 5
4/22 NYY -110 0.602 4 -0.66531 -0.5075
LAA +102 0.398 3
4/22 TEX -104 0.488 1 -0.69315 -0.66943
OAK -104 0.512 6

Above are our results from each game yesterday. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.

MLB Season Prediction Results

Yesterday
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 9 4 3 2 0.556 -0.67513
DRatings 9 5 4 0 0.556 -0.72778
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 92 46 39 7 0.538 -0.69288
DRatings 92 55 37 0 0.598 -0.67966
Last Month
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 331 177 138 16 0.559 -0.69257
DRatings 331 192 139 0 0.58 -0.69221
2019
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 180 93 78 9 0.542 -0.69417
DRatings 180 104 76 0 0.578 -0.69572
All Time
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 2639 1517 1086 36 0.582 -0.67269
DRatings 2639 1505 1125 9 0.572 -0.6771

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against the sportsbook consensus. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks. Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this creiteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.