MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 17, 2025

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
New York Mets (28-16)
New York Yankees (25-18)
Griffin Canning
Clarke Schmidt
43.2%
56.8%
+117
-125
+122
-127
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+150
4.40
5.11
9.51
o9½-113
u9½-103
o9½-105
u9½+100
Chicago White Sox (14-29)
Chicago Cubs (25-19)
Sean Burke
Matthew Boyd
27.9%
72.1%
+232
-258
+235
-260
+1½+115
-1½-135
+1½+120
-1½-140
2.93
5.21
8.14
o10½-105
u10½-115
o10-120
u10½-110
Detroit Tigers (29-15)
Toronto Blue Jays (21-21)
Reese Olson
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
52.9%
47.1%




4.38
4.08
8.46


Washington Nationals (18-26)
Baltimore Orioles (15-26)
Jake Irvin
Kyle Gibson
42.9%
57.1%
+139
-149
+140
-150
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+130
4.35
5.10
9.45
o10-107
u10-108
o9½-125
u10-105
Tampa Bay Rays (19-23)
Miami Marlins (16-26)
Drew Rasmussen
Sandy Alcántara
58.3%
41.7%
-138
+131
-136
+130
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+125
+1½-140
3.94
3.08
7.02
o8+100
u8-113
o8+100
u8-115
Pittsburgh Pirates (15-29)
Philadelphia Phillies (25-18)
Carmen Mlodzinski
Zack Wheeler
29.1%
70.9%
+240
-270
+245
-275
+1½+115
-1½-135
+1½+115
-1½-130
3.16
5.31
8.47
o8½-108
u8½-108
o8½-105
u8½-110
Cleveland Guardians (25-18)
Cincinnati Reds (20-24)
Slade Cecconi
Brent Suter
52.7%
47.3%
-118
+111
-123
+113
-1½+130
+1½-140
-1½+122
+1½-140
4.81
4.53
9.34
o10+102
u10-115
o10-105
u10-115
Houston Astros (22-20)
Texas Rangers (23-21)
Ronel Blanco
Tyler Mahle
39.1%
60.9%
+124
-132
+125
-135
+1½-170
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+155
2.76
3.91
6.67
o8½+102
u8+100
o8-115
u8+100
St. Louis Cardinals (24-20)
Kansas City Royals (25-20)
Miles Mikolas
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
40.2%
59.8%
+109
-120
+102
-114
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-200
-1½+175
3.93
4.96
8.89
o8½-120
u9-120
o8½-120
u8½+100
Atlanta Braves (21-22)
Boston Red Sox (22-23)
Grant Holmes
Lucas Giolito
50.6%
49.4%
+107
-116
+108
-118
+1½-190
-1½+174
+1½-185
-1½+170
4.79
4.72
9.51
o9-115
u9+102
o9-115
u9½-120
Minnesota Twins (23-20)
Milwaukee Brewers (21-23)
Pablo Lopez
Tobias Myers
50.8%
49.2%
-107
-101
-107
+100
-1½+157
+1½-170

4.25
4.18
8.43
o8+105
u7½+100
o7½-110
u7½-105
Colorado Rockies (7-36)
Arizona Diamondbacks (23-21)
Germán Márquez
Zac Gallen
21.4%
78.6%
+277
-310
+288
-330
+1½+141
-1½-160
+1½+150
-1½-150
2.96
5.99
8.95
o9-105
u9-103
o9-110
u9-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Seattle Mariners (23-19)
San Diego Padres (27-15)
Emerson Hancock
Nick Pivetta
32.6%
67.4%
+154
-164
+153
-165
+1½-140
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+140
3.09
4.88
7.97
o8-113
u8+100
o8-115
u8+100
Oakland Athletics (22-21)
San Francisco Giants (25-19)
Luis Severino
Landen Roupp
44.7%
55.3%
+117
-124
+115
-120
+1½-185
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+175
3.76
4.32
8.08
o8-113
u8-103
o8-110
u8-105
Los Angeles Angels (17-25)
Los Angeles Dodgers (28-15)
Tyler Anderson
Clayton Kershaw
29.0%
71.0%
+210
-227
+210
-230
+1½+106
-1½-120
+1½+100
-1½-115
3.25
5.41
8.66
o9-113
u9-102
o9-115
u9+105
Games for May 16, 2025
Games for May 18, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Oakland Athletics
San Francisco Giants
32.6%
67.4%
+172
-180
+175
-190
+1½-128
-1½+120
+1½-130
-1½+120
1
9
-0.45229-0.44150-0.39453
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Dodgers
28.1%
71.9%
+265
-285
+275
-300
+1½+145
-1½-153
+1½+155
-1½-155
6
2
-1.30885-1.33827-1.26776
Seattle Mariners
San Diego Padres
42.6%
57.4%
+158
-163
+156
-159
+1½-133
-1½+117
+1½-135
-1½+130
5
1
-0.95514-0.94451-0.85372
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
25.9%
74.1%
+320
-350
+330
-355
+1½+160
-1½-175
+1½+170
-1½-190
0
8
-0.26707-0.26088-0.29953
Pittsburgh Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies
34.9%
65.1%
+220
-225
+220
-235
+1½+102
-1½-115
+1½+105
-1½-120
4
8
-0.37251-0.36844-0.42960
Minnesota Twins
Milwaukee Brewers
51.9%
48.1%
-108
+103
-111
+104
-1½+150
+1½-163
-1½+150
+1½-165
3
0
-0.66719-0.65846-0.65497
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
39.6%
60.4%
+179
-185
+180
-190
+1½-118
-1½+105
+1½-125
-1½+110
6
3
-1.03356-1.04185-0.92563
St. Louis Cardinals
Kansas City Royals
41.1%
58.9%
+135
-143
+142
-147
+1½-153
-1½+137
+1½-155
-1½+145
10
3
-0.86833-0.89211-0.88824
Washington Nationals
Baltimore Orioles
46.8%
53.2%
+113
-121
+112
-122
+1½-188
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+175
4
3
-0.77297-0.77245-0.75845
Atlanta Braves
Boston Red Sox
46.0%
54.0%
+101
-107
+109
-109

+1½-200
-1½+190
4
2
-0.71245-0.73716-0.77720
Tampa Bay Rays
Miami Marlins
48.1%
51.9%
-120
+113
-117
+114
-1½+140
+1½-153
-1½+140
+1½-150
4
9
-0.77096-0.76725-0.65493
Detroit Tigers
Toronto Blue Jays
54.8%
45.2%
-110
+101
-114
+104
-1½+142
+1½-158
-1½+140
+1½-155
5
4
-0.66771-0.65243-0.60175
New York Mets
New York Yankees
43.9%
56.1%
+132
-142
+129
-138
+1½-158
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+150
2
6
-0.55076-0.56140-0.57819
Cleveland Guardians
Cincinnati Reds
53.2%
46.8%
-116
+107
-117
+108
-1½+137
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-145
4
5
-0.74748-0.75211-0.75974
Chicago White Sox
Chicago Cubs
33.7%
66.3%
+199
-215
+200
-220
+1½+107
-1½-110
+1½+110
-1½-115
3
13
-0.39878-0.39531-0.41139
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Dodgers
33.9%
66.1%
+222
-235
+220
-240
+1½+120
-1½-113
+1½+110
-1½-125
2
19
-0.36652-0.36652-0.41331
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks157-8 (0.467)0-0.70307 
Sportsbooks157-8 (0.467)0-0.70561 
DRatings158-7 (0.533)0-0.68371
0.01936
0.02190

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.