All of today’s NHL hockey picks and predictions are listed below along with the odds to win from three reputable sportsbooks. As of late 2017, we are now taking into account more information to make our predictions as accurate as possible. That said, a team’s starting goalie has been added to our formula. This effects each team’s percentage to win and the total goals scored in a game. These predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only.
Our projection system for the NHL is at Level 3, which is our highest level of analysis.
Today’s NHL Game Predictions – Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019
| Date |
Time |
Teams |
Lines – Updated 4/23 @ 10:05 am |
Odds to Win |
Score Prediction |
Total Goals |
 |
 |
 |
| 4/23 |
10:00 pm |
Vegas |
-104 |
-105 |
-105 |
44.1% |
2.50 |
5.32 |
| San Jose |
-106 |
-115 |
-105 |
55.9% |
2.81 |
| 4/23 |
7:00 pm |
Toronto |
+125 |
+125 |
+125 |
41.6% |
2.43 |
5.31 |
| Boston |
-138 |
-145 |
-135 |
58.4% |
2.88 |
The money lines above are current as of the time listed in the header. The odds to win, score predictions, and total goals come from our proprietary formula that is based on multiple factors of data.
Today’s NHL Picks and Game Analysis
Bet value is based on a proprietary formula. This formula takes into account all of the factors within the game like starting goalie, team strength, injuries, days of rest, etc and compares it to the money line. If the line changes through out the day, then you may see movement within the Bet Value as well. The icons are explained below.
: There is Bet Value on the money line.
: There is Bet Value on the puck line.
: There is Bet Value on the over/under.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins Game Analysis
Time: 7:00 pm ET
| Team |
Record |
Team Rank |
Units W/L |
Goals PG |
Opp Goals PG |
More Info |
| Toronto Maple Leafs |
49-31-8 |
10 |
-5.08 |
3.43 |
3.06 |
Matchup and Bet Value |
| Boston Bruins |
52-27-9 |
5 |
0.78 |
3.15 |
2.63 |
| Starting Goalies: F Andersen (TOR) – Record: 36-16-6, T Rask (BOS) – Record: 27-12-5 |
Vegas Golden Knights vs. San Jose Sharks Game Analysis
Time: 10:00 pm ET
| Team |
Record |
Team Rank |
Units W/L |
Goals PG |
Opp Goals PG |
More Info |
| Vegas Golden Knights |
46-34-8 |
12 |
-11.25 |
3.07 |
2.82 |
Matchup and Bet Value |
| San Jose Sharks |
49-30-9 |
13 |
4.53 |
3.49 |
3.19 |
| Starting Goalies: M Fleury (VGK) – Record: 35-20-5, M Jones (SJ) – Record: 35-19-5 |
Tomorrow’s NHL Game Predictions – Wednesday, April 24th, 2019
| Date |
Matchup |
Teams |
Odds to Win |
Score Prediction |
Total Goals |
| 4/24 |
Carolina at Washington |
Carolina |
42.7% |
2.41 |
5.20 |
| Washington |
57.3% |
2.79 |
Tomorrow’s game projections are simply listed with the odds for each team to win and score projections. We do not post the lines for these games because in most cases the lines aren’t out yet. These numbers may change on game day as we have more information about starting goalies, injuries, etc.
Yesterday’s NHL Game Prediction Results
| Date |
Teams |
SB Consensus |
DRatings to Win |
Final Score |
SB Consensus Log Loss |
DRatings Log Loss |
| 4/22 |
NSH |
+124 |
0.482 |
1 |
-0.57227 |
-0.65778 |
| DAL |
-137 |
0.518 |
2 |
| 4/22 |
WAS |
+110 |
0.453 |
2 |
-0.62755 |
-0.60331 |
| CAR |
-120 |
0.547 |
5 |
The table above lists how our projections have done against the sportsbook consensus. Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Log Loss is a lot more complicated. In a nutshell, lower is better, but for more detail see: Making Sense of Log Loss.
NHL Season Prediction Results
Yesterday
|
Games |
Wins |
Losses |
No Pick |
Win Pct. |
Log Loss |
| Sportsbooks |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
-0.59991 |
| DRatings |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
-0.63054 |
Last Week
|
Games |
Wins |
Losses |
No Pick |
Win Pct. |
Log Loss |
| Sportsbooks |
19 |
7 |
10 |
2 |
0.421 |
-0.74044 |
| DRatings |
19 |
9 |
10 |
0 |
0.474 |
-0.7285 |
Last Month
|
Games |
Wins |
Losses |
No Pick |
Win Pct. |
Log Loss |
| Sportsbooks |
146 |
72 |
67 |
7 |
0.517 |
-0.70925 |
| DRatings |
146 |
75 |
70 |
1 |
0.517 |
-0.70702 |
2018-2019
|
Games |
Wins |
Losses |
No Pick |
Win Pct. |
Log Loss |
| Sportsbooks |
1314 |
732 |
539 |
43 |
0.573 |
-0.67607 |
| DRatings |
1314 |
742 |
565 |
7 |
0.567 |
-0.67991 |
All Time
|
Games |
Wins |
Losses |
No Pick |
Win Pct. |
Log Loss |
| Sportsbooks |
2669 |
1526 |
1074 |
69 |
0.585 |
-0.67269 |
| DRatings |
2669 |
1516 |
1142 |
11 |
0.57 |
-0.6771 |
NHL Futures and Playoff Probabilities
Below are our simulations for the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. The probabilities for advancement in each playoff series is based on a simulation with 1,000 trials. During the playoff season, this will be updated daily and will take into account the results of each played game.
Updated 4/23/2019 @ 10:20am.
NHL Odds to Advance in Each Series
Below are the projected games to win each series for every team playoff match in the NHL.
(1) Tampa Bay vs. (WC2) Columbus
Columbus has won the series 4-0.
| Rank |
Team |
Win in 4 |
Win in 5 |
Win in 6 |
Win in 7 |
Win Series |
| 1 |
Tampa Bay |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| WC2 |
Columbus |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
(2) Boston vs. (3) Toronto
The series is tied 3 to 3.
| Rank |
Team |
Win in 4 |
Win in 5 |
Win in 6 |
Win in 7 |
Win Series |
| 2 |
Boston |
0% |
0% |
0% |
58.9% |
58.9% |
| 3 |
Toronto |
0% |
0% |
0% |
41.1% |
41.1% |
(1) Washington vs. (WC1) Carolina
The series is tied 3 to 3.
| Rank |
Team |
Win in 4 |
Win in 5 |
Win in 6 |
Win in 7 |
Win Series |
| 1 |
Washington |
0% |
0% |
0% |
57.1% |
57.1% |
| WC1 |
Carolina |
0% |
0% |
0% |
42.9% |
42.9% |
(2) NY Islanders vs. (3) Pittsburgh
NY Islanders has won the series 4-0.
| Rank |
Team |
Win in 4 |
Win in 5 |
Win in 6 |
Win in 7 |
Win Series |
| 2 |
NY Islanders |
100% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
| 3 |
Pittsburgh |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
(1) Nashville vs. (WC2) Dallas
Dallas has won the series 4-2.
| Rank |
Team |
Win in 4 |
Win in 5 |
Win in 6 |
Win in 7 |
Win Series |
| 1 |
Nashville |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| WC2 |
Dallas |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
100% |
(2) Winnipeg vs. (3) St Louis
St Louis has won the series 4-2.
| Rank |
Team |
Win in 4 |
Win in 5 |
Win in 6 |
Win in 7 |
Win Series |
| 2 |
Winnipeg |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 3 |
St Louis |
0% |
0% |
100% |
0% |
100% |
(1) Calgary vs. (WC1) Colorado
Colorado has won the series 4-1.
| Rank |
Team |
Win in 4 |
Win in 5 |
Win in 6 |
Win in 7 |
Win Series |
| 1 |
Calgary |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| WC1 |
Colorado |
0% |
100% |
0% |
0% |
100% |
(2) San Jose vs. (3) Vegas
The series is tied 3 to 3.
| Rank |
Team |
Win in 4 |
Win in 5 |
Win in 6 |
Win in 7 |
Win Series |
| 2 |
San Jose |
0% |
0% |
0% |
58.4% |
58.4% |
| 3 |
Vegas |
0% |
0% |
0% |
41.6% |
41.6% |
NHL Odds to Advance In Playoffs
Below are the odds to advance to different stages in the playoffs.
Eastern Conference – Atlantic
| Rank |
Team |
To Make 2nd Round |
To Make the Semis |
To Win Conference |
To Win Stanley Cup |
| 1 |
Tampa Bay |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| WC2 |
Columbus |
100% |
46.6% |
23.1% |
11.3% |
| 2 |
Boston |
58.9% |
31.9% |
17.6% |
10.3% |
| 3 |
Toronto |
41.1% |
21.5% |
11.3% |
6.4% |
Eastern Conference – Metropolitan
| Rank |
Team |
To Make 2nd Round |
To Make the Semis |
To Win Conference |
To Win Stanley Cup |
| 1 |
Washington |
57.1% |
32.7% |
16.6% |
9% |
| WC1 |
Carolina |
42.9% |
20.1% |
11% |
5.1% |
| 2 |
NY Islanders |
100% |
47.2% |
20.4% |
9.9% |
| 3 |
Pittsburgh |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
Western Conference – Central
| Rank |
Team |
To Make 2nd Round |
To Make the Semis |
To Win Conference |
To Win Stanley Cup |
| 1 |
Nashville |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| WC2 |
Dallas |
100% |
39.8% |
17.5% |
7.7% |
| 2 |
Winnipeg |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| 3 |
St Louis |
100% |
60.2% |
33.9% |
16.7% |
Western Conference – Pacific
| Rank |
Team |
To Make 2nd Round |
To Make the Semis |
To Win Conference |
To Win Stanley Cup |
| 1 |
Calgary |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| WC1 |
Colorado |
100% |
35.4% |
14.3% |
6.7% |
| 2 |
San Jose |
58.4% |
36.8% |
19.8% |
9.3% |
| 3 |
Vegas |
41.6% |
27.8% |
14.5% |
7.6% |
