NHL Hockey Predictions


All of today’s NHL hockey picks and predictions are listed below along with the odds to win from three reputable sportsbooks. As of late 2017, we are now taking into account more information to make our predictions as accurate as possible. That said, a team’s starting goalie has been added to our formula. This effects each team’s percentage to win and the total goals scored in a game. These predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only.

Our projection system for the NHL is at Level 3, which is our highest level of analysis.

Today’s NHL Game Predictions – Tuesday, December 18th, 2018

Date Time Teams Lines – Updated 12/18 @ 1:53 pm Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Goals
12/18 7:00 pm Florida
+114
+115
+115
44.4%
2.73
5.79
Buffalo
-126
-135
-125
55.6%
3.05
12/18 7:00 pm Toronto
-150
-170
-165
57.1%
3.19
5.96
New Jersey
+136
+150
+145
42.9%
2.77
12/18 7:00 pm Anaheim
+128
+125
+130
42%
2.88
6.27
NY Rangers
-141
-145
-140
58%
3.39
12/18 7:00 pm Detroit
+158
+155
+162
32.9%
2.47
5.95
Philadelphia
-175
-175
-172
67.1%
3.48
12/18 8:00 pm San Jose
+107
+100
+105
47.2%
2.94
6.05
Minnesota
-118
-120
-125
52.8%
3.11
12/18 8:30 pm Nashville
-140
-150
-145
59.1%
3.24
5.94
Chicago
+127
+130
+135
40.9%
2.70
12/18 8:30 pm Calgary
-123
-125
-118
54.1%
2.74
5.27
Dallas
+111
+105
+108
45.9%
2.52
12/18 9:00 pm NY Islanders
+119
+115
+117
37.4%
2.69
6.16
Arizona
-131
-135
-127
62.6%
3.47
12/18 9:00 pm St Louis
+134
+135
+140
40.3%
2.61
5.78
Edmonton
-148
-155
-150
59.7%
3.17
12/18 10:00 pm Tampa Bay
-176
-180
-210
67%
3.55
6.07
Vancouver
+159
+160
+175
33%
2.52
12/18 10:30 pm Winnipeg
-154
-160
-147
64%
3.29
5.77
Los Angeles
+139
+140
+137
36%
2.48

The money lines above are current as of the time listed in the header. The odds to win, score predictions, and total goals come from our proprietary formula that is based on multiple factors of data.

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Today’s NHL Picks and Game Analysis

Bet value is based on a proprietary formula. This formula takes into account all of the factors within the game like starting goalie, team strength, injuries, days of rest, etc and compares it to the money line. If the line changes through out the day, then you may see movement within the Bet Value as well. Games with an orange check mark have significant bet value on one or more of the money line, puck line and over/under.

Anaheim Ducks vs. New York Rangers Game Analysis

Time: 7:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Anaheim Ducks 19-11-5 17 -0.3 2.66 2.86 Matchup and Bet Value
New York Rangers 14-13-5 23 -1.83 2.94 3.31
Starting Goalies: C Johnson (ANA) – Record: 2-6-0, A Georgiev (NYR) – Record: 4-4-0

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. New Jersey Devils Game Analysis

Time: 7:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Toronto Maple Leafs 21-10-2 2 2.61 3.55 2.82 Matchup and Bet Value
New Jersey Devils 11-13-7 28 -3.96 3 3.58
Starting Goalies: F Andersen (TOR) – Record: 17-9-1, K Kinkaid (NJD) – Record: 11-8-6

Detroit Red Wings vs. Philadelphia Flyers Game Analysis

Time: 7:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Detroit Red Wings 14-15-5 26 7.2 2.88 3.38 Matchup and Bet Value
Philadelphia Flyers 12-15-4 21 -0.87 3 3.74
Starting Goalies: J Howard (DET) – Record: 10-7-4, C Hart (PHI) – Record: 0-0-0

Florida Panthers vs. Buffalo Sabres Game Analysis

Time: 7:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Florida Panthers 12-13-6 24 -9.09 3.26 3.65 Matchup and Bet Value
Buffalo Sabres 20-9-5 14 5.45 3.09 2.88
Starting Goalies: R Luongo (FLA) – Record: 6-5-1, C Hutton (BUF) – Record: 13-8-2

San Jose Sharks vs. Minnesota Wild Game Analysis

Time: 8:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
San Jose Sharks 18-11-5 11 9.57 3.29 3 Matchup and Bet Value
Minnesota Wild 17-13-2 13 1.91 3.16 2.84
Starting Goalies: M Jones (SJ) – Record: 13-7-3, D Dubnyk (MIN) – Record: 12-10-2

Calgary Flames vs. Dallas Stars Game Analysis

Time: 8:30 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Calgary Flames 22-10-2 4 6.64 3.59 2.74 Matchup and Bet Value
Dallas Stars 16-14-3 12 -5.15 2.79 2.82
Starting Goalies: D Rittich (CGY) – Record: 11-3-1, B Bishop (DAL) – Record: 10-8-1

Nashville Predators vs. Chicago Blackhawks Game Analysis

Time: 8:30 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Nashville Predators 22-10-2 3 2.32 3.15 2.53 Matchup and Bet Value
Chicago Blackhawks 10-19-6 31 -5.17 2.83 3.86
Starting Goalies: P Rinne (NSH) – Record: 14-5-1, C Ward (CHI) – Record: 4-5-4

St. Louis Blues vs. Edmonton Oilers Game Analysis

Time: 9:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
St. Louis Blues 12-15-4 25 4.46 2.84 3.45 Matchup and Bet Value
Edmonton Oilers 18-13-3 10 0.32 2.88 2.97
Starting Goalies: J Allen (STL) – Record: 10-9-4, C Talbot (EDM) – Record: 7-9-2

New York Islanders vs. Arizona Coyotes Game Analysis

Time: 9:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
New York Islanders 16-12-4 22 2.91 2.91 2.88 Matchup and Bet Value
Arizona Coyotes 14-16-2 20 3.17 2.53 2.78
Starting Goalies: R Lehner (NYI) – Record: 4-6-3, D Kuemper (ARI) – Record: 4-7-2

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Vancouver Canucks Game Analysis

Time: 10:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Tampa Bay Lightning 25-7-2 1 -0.36 4.06 2.85 Matchup and Bet Value
Vancouver Canucks 16-16-4 27 4.86 3.06 3.28
Starting Goalies: A Vasilevskiy (TB) – Record: 10-3-2, J Markstrom (VAN) – Record: 13-9-3

Winnipeg Jets vs. Los Angeles Kings Game Analysis

Time: 10:30 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Winnipeg Jets 22-9-2 5 -10.52 3.67 2.85 Matchup and Bet Value
Los Angeles Kings 11-20-3 30 -12.5 2.21 3.12
Starting Goalies: C Hellebuyck (WPG) – Record: 15-8-1, J Quick (LA) – Record: 2-8-2

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Tomorrow’s NHL Game Predictions – Wednesday, December 19th, 2018

Date Matchup Teams Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Goals
12/19 Pittsburgh at Washington Pittsburgh
39.3%
2.81
6.30
Washington
60.7%
3.49
12/19 Montreal at Colorado Montreal
36.3%
2.49
5.76
Colorado
63.7%
3.27

Tomorrow’s game projections are simply listed with the odds for each team to win and score projections. We do not post the lines for these games because in most cases the lines aren’t out yet. These numbers may change on game day as we have more information about starting goalies, injuries, etc.


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Yesterday’s NHL Game Prediction Results

Date Teams DRatings Odds to Win Final Score GTBets Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
12/17 VGK +120 0.383 0 -0.57618 -0.48289
CBJ -140 0.617 1
12/17 ANA +155 0.355 4 -0.96421 -1.03564
PIT -175 0.645 2
12/17 NSH -175 0.693 3 -0.96421 -1.18091
OTT +155 0.307 4
12/17 BOS +125 0.439 4 -0.84657 -0.82326
MTL -145 0.561 0
12/17 NYI +150 0.341 4 -0.94549 -1.07587
COL -170 0.659 1

The table above lists how our projections have done against 5Dimes (which is representative of most sportsbooks). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Log Loss is a lot more complicated. In a nutshell, lower is better, but for more detail see: Making Sense of Log Loss.

NHL Season Prediction Results

Yesterday
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 5 1 4 0 0.2 -0.85933
DRatings 5 1 4 0 0.2 -0.91971
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 52 35 17 0 0.673 -0.63549
DRatings 52 34 18 0 0.654 -0.62837
Last Two Weeks
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 101 66 32 3 0.668 -0.64652
DRatings 101 62 39 0 0.614 -0.64912
2018-2019
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 516 293 206 17 0.584 -0.67725
DRatings 516 299 215 2 0.581 -0.68021
All Time
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 1871 1087 741 43 0.592 -0.67157
DRatings 1871 1073 792 6 0.575 -0.67599

NHL Futures and Playoff Probabilities

Below are our simulations for the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. The probabilities for advancement in each playoff series is based on a simulation with 1,000 trials. During the playoff season, this will be updated daily and will take into account the results of each played game.

NHL Record and Points Projection

Below are the projected records for every team in the NHL along with the probabilities that they win their division.

AtlanticProj WinsProj LossesProj OT LossesProj PointsProb Win DivisionProb to Make Playoffs
Boston43.728.210.197.55.0%77.2%
Buffalo43.428.310.397.13.2%74.1%
Detroit35.435.411.382.00.1%7.8%
Florida37.232.012.887.20.2%25.9%
Montreal38.931.311.889.50.4%39.5%
Ottawa33.936.911.379.00.0%4.2%
Tampa Bay52.523.26.3111.364.1%99.6%
Toronto49.625.76.7105.927.0%97.0%

MetropolitanProj WinsProj LossesProj OT LossesProj PointsProb Win DivisionProb to Make Playoffs
Carolina40.531.110.491.510.2%52.4%
Columbus43.530.48.195.121.3%70.9%
NY Islanders39.032.011.088.94.7%34.9%
NY Rangers37.634.310.185.42.0%19.4%
New Jersey35.733.512.884.22.2%17.2%
Philadelphia38.133.810.186.32.7%25.6%
Pittsburgh41.228.512.394.616.4%67.5%
Washington45.227.79.199.640.5%86.8%

CentralProj WinsProj LossesProj OT LossesProj PointsProb Win DivisionProb to Make Playoffs
Chicago31.838.411.875.40.0%1.5%
Colorado44.027.011.099.013.1%85.4%
Dallas41.330.99.792.43.9%56.4%
Minnesota43.630.38.195.25.7%72.6%
Nashville49.526.06.4105.546.8%97.7%
St Louis36.834.310.884.50.2%19.5%
Winnipeg47.626.67.8103.130.3%95.0%

PacificProj WinsProj LossesProj OT LossesProj PointsProb Win DivisionProb to Make Playoffs
Anaheim39.730.711.690.96.6%47.9%
Arizona38.334.88.985.61.7%23.3%
Calgary45.828.18.199.639.5%89.7%
Edmonton42.131.38.692.912.8%60.8%
Los Angeles33.939.38.876.60.3%2.6%
San Jose43.528.010.697.527.1%80.3%
Vancouver34.737.310.179.40.2%6.0%
Vegas42.932.07.193.011.8%61.3%

NHL Odds to Advance In Playoffs

Below are the odds to advance to different stages in the playoffs.

EastTeamTo Make PlayoffsML to Make PlayoffsProb to Win ConfML to Win ConfProb to Win CupML to Win Cup
AtlanticBoston77.2%-3397.8%+11823.7%+2603
AtlanticBuffalo74.1%-2865.7%+16542.6%+3746
AtlanticDetroit7.8%+11820.1%+999000.0%No Odds
AtlanticFlorida25.9%+2861.0%+99000.1%+99900
AtlanticMontreal39.5%+1531.4%+70430.5%+19900
AtlanticOttawa4.2%+22810.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AtlanticTampa Bay99.6%-2490026.7%+27513.6%+635
AtlanticToronto97.0%-323316.6%+5028.1%+1135
MetropolitanCarolina52.4%-1104.8%+19831.5%+6567
MetropolitanColumbus70.9%-24410.3%+8715.4%+1752
MetropolitanNY Islanders34.9%+1871.0%+99000.4%+24900
MetropolitanNY Rangers19.4%+4151.1%+89910.3%+33233
MetropolitanNew Jersey17.2%+4811.3%+75920.5%+19900
MetropolitanPhiladelphia25.6%+2911.3%+75920.4%+24900
MetropolitanPittsburgh67.5%-2088.5%+10763.3%+2930
MetropolitanWashington86.8%-65812.4%+7065.9%+1595

WestTeamTo Make PlayoffsML to Make PlayoffsProb to Win ConfML to Win ConfProb to Win CupML to Win Cup
CentralChicago1.5%+65670.1%+999000.1%+99900
CentralColorado85.4%-58511.2%+7935.3%+1787
CentralDallas56.4%-1293.2%+30251.1%+8991
CentralMinnesota72.6%-2656.9%+13493.5%+2757
CentralNashville97.7%-424825.1%+29816.9%+492
CentralSt Louis19.5%+4131.3%+75920.4%+24900
CentralWinnipeg95.0%-190018.2%+44910.0%+900
PacificAnaheim47.9%+1091.2%+82330.3%+33233
PacificArizona23.3%+3291.0%+99000.4%+24900
PacificCalgary89.7%-8719.6%+9424.3%+2226
PacificEdmonton60.8%-1553.2%+30251.7%+5782
PacificLos Angeles2.6%+37460.2%+499000.0%No Odds
PacificSan Jose80.3%-40812.4%+7066.8%+1371
PacificVancouver6.0%+15670.2%+499000.0%No Odds
PacificVegas61.3%-1586.2%+15132.9%+3348