NHL Hockey Predictions


All of today’s NHL hockey picks and predictions are listed below along with the odds to win from three reputable sportsbooks. As of late 2017, we are now taking into account more information to make our predictions as accurate as possible. That said, a team’s starting goalie has been added to our formula. This effects each team’s percentage to win and the total goals scored in a game. These predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only.

Our projection system for the NHL is at Level 3, which is our highest level of analysis.

Today’s NHL Game Predictions – Wednesday, October 17th, 2018

Date Time Teams Lines – Updated 10/17 @ 5:55 pm Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Goals
10/17 7:00 pm St Louis
-115
-120
-120
48.4%
2.77
5.63
Montreal
+104
+100
+100
51.6%
2.86
10/17 7:00 pm NY Rangers
+218
+225
+230
23.2%
2.18
5.97
Washington
-245
-265
-270
76.8%
3.78
10/17 9:30 pm Boston
+101
-115
+100
54.2%
3.01
5.78
Calgary
-111
-105
-110
45.8%
2.77
10/17 10:00 pm NY Islanders
+137
+125
+145
36.5%
2.73
6.33
Anaheim
-152
-155
-165
63.5%
3.59

The money lines above are current as of the time listed in the header. The odds to win, score predictions, and total goals come from our proprietary formula that is based on multiple factors of data.

Bovada Hockey
Bet NHL Hockey at Bovada - Our top-rated Sportsbook: Join Bovada
See our detailed review of Bovada here: Bovada Sportsbook Review

Today’s NHL Picks and Game Analysis

Bet value is based on a proprietary formula. This formula takes into account all of the factors within the game like starting goalie, team strength, injuries, days of rest, etc and compares it to the money line. If the line changes through out the day, then you may see movement within the Bet Value as well. Games with an orange check mark have significant bet value on one or more of the money line, puck line and over/under.

New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals Game Analysis

Time: 7:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
New York Rangers 2-4-0 30 0.71 2.17 3.33 Matchup and Bet Value
Washington Capitals 2-2-1 6 0.17 4 2.4
Starting Goalies: H Lundqvist (NYR) – Record: 2-3-0, B Holtby (WAS) – Record: 2-1-1

St. Louis Blues vs. Montreal Canadiens Game Analysis

Time: 7:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
St. Louis Blues 1-2-2 26 3.18 2.8 4 Matchup and Bet Value
Montreal Canadiens 3-1-1 24 -3.35 3.6 2.6
Starting Goalies: J Allen (STL) – Record: 1-1-2, C Price (MTL) – Record: 1-1-1

Boston Bruins vs. Calgary Flames Game Analysis

Time: 9:30 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Boston Bruins 4-1-0 5 -2.01 4.4 2.6 Matchup and Bet Value
Calgary Flames 3-2-0 13 1.7 3.6 3.2
Starting Goalies: T Rask (BOS) – Record: 2-1-0, M Smith (CGY) – Record: 2-2-0

New York Islanders vs. Anaheim Ducks Game Analysis

Time: 10:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
New York Islanders 2-2-0 21 -2.35 2.75 2.25 Matchup and Bet Value
Anaheim Ducks 4-1-1 16 -3.55 2.83 2.33
Starting Goalies: T Greiss (NYI) – Record: 1-1-0, J Gibson (ANA) – Record: 3-1-1

Bet at 5dimes
Bet NHL Hockey at the 5Dimes Sportsbook: Join 5Dimes
See our detailed review of 5Dimes here: 5Dimes Sportsbook Review

Tomorrow’s NHL Game Predictions – Wednesday, October 17th, 2018

Date Matchup Teams Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Goals
10/18 Philadelphia at Columbus Philadelphia
39.5%
2.66
5.94
Columbus
60.5%
3.28
10/18 Colorado at New Jersey Colorado
34%
2.52
6.00
New Jersey
66%
3.48
10/18 Pittsburgh at Toronto Pittsburgh
43.8%
2.90
6.19
Toronto
56.2%
3.29
10/18 Detroit at Tampa Bay Detroit
15.1%
1.96
6.02
Tampa Bay
84.9%
4.06
10/18 Vancouver at Winnipeg Vancouver
21.5%
2.11
5.91
Winnipeg
78.5%
3.79
10/18 Arizona at Chicago Arizona
39.8%
2.58
5.75
Chicago
60.2%
3.16
10/18 Boston at Edmonton Boston
55.2%
3.15
5.99
Edmonton
44.8%
2.84
10/18 NY Islanders at Los Angeles NY Islanders
38%
2.72
6.20
Los Angeles
62%
3.47
10/18 Buffalo at San Jose Buffalo
29.3%
2.30
5.80
San Jose
70.7%
3.50

Tomorrow’s game projections are simply listed with the odds for each team to win and score projections. We do not post the lines for these games because in most cases the lines aren’t out yet. These numbers may change on game day as we have more information about starting goalies, injuries, etc.


Bet NHL Hockey at the GTBets Sportsbook: Join GTBets
See our detailed review of GTBets here: GTBets Sportsbook Review

Yesterday’s NHL Game Prediction Results

Date Teams DRatings Odds to Win Final Score GTBets Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
10/16 CAR +145 0.344 2 -0.50412 -0.42159
TB -165 0.656 4
10/16 EDM +170 0.298 5 -1.02962 -1.21066
WPG -200 0.702 4
10/16 ARI +145 0.336 1 -0.50412 -0.40947
MIN -165 0.664 2
10/16 BUF +175 0.331 1 -0.4297 -0.40197
VGK -210 0.669 4

The table above lists how our projections have done against 5DImes (which is representative of most sportsbooks). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Log Loss is a lot more complicated. In a nutshell, lower is better, but for more detail see: Making Sense of Log Loss.

NHL Season Prediction Results

Yesterday
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 8 5 3 0 0.625 -0.70651
DRatings 8 4 4 0 0.5 -0.74889
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 44 23 20 1 0.534 -0.68961
DRatings 44 23 21 0 0.523 -0.70401
Last Two Weeks
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 85 47 37 1 0.559 -0.68441
DRatings 85 47 38 0 0.553 -0.68909
2018-2019
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 85 47 37 1 0.559 -0.68441
DRatings 85 47 38 0 0.553 -0.68909
All Time
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 1440 841 572 27 0.593 -0.67029
DRatings 1440 821 615 4 0.572 -0.67525

NHL Futures and Playoff Probabilities

Below are our simulations for the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. The probabilities for advancement in each playoff series is based on a simulation with 1,000 trials. During the playoff season, this will be updated daily and will take into account the results of each played game.

Updated 10/10/2018.

NHL Record and Points Projection

Below are the projected records for every team in the NHL along with the probabilities that they win their division.

ConferenceDivisionTeamWinsLossesOT LossesPointsProj WinsProj LossesProj OT LossesProj PointsProb Win Division
EastAtlanticBoston410847.526.28.3103.421.9%
EastAtlanticBuffalo330636.235.110.783.10.4%
EastAtlanticDetroit042228.739.613.871.10.0%
EastAtlanticFlorida022238.831.411.889.41.4%
EastAtlanticMontreal311738.132.411.587.71.3%
EastAtlanticOttawa321734.835.112.081.70.1%
EastAtlanticTampa Bay310650.324.07.8108.340.4%
EastAtlanticToronto6101249.424.77.9106.734.5%
EastMetropolitanCarolina421941.829.910.393.87.3%
EastMetropolitanColumbus320643.129.79.295.411.0%
EastMetropolitanNY Islanders220436.334.810.883.51.1%
EastMetropolitanNY Rangers240434.037.010.979.00.3%
EastMetropolitanNew Jersey400846.726.58.8102.228.9%
EastMetropolitanPhiladelphia330640.731.79.691.04.8%
EastMetropolitanPittsburgh212646.025.810.2102.227.2%
EastMetropolitanWashington221544.927.59.699.419.4%
WestCentralChicago302838.031.512.688.52.0%
WestCentralColorado312840.130.211.791.95.6%
WestCentralDallas330643.129.89.195.28.4%
WestCentralMinnesota222641.029.811.393.25.7%
WestCentralNashville5101049.724.57.7107.248.0%
WestCentralSt Louis122439.930.611.591.33.6%
WestCentralWinnipeg321747.026.09.1103.026.7%
WestPacificAnaheim411940.830.510.792.317.3%
WestPacificArizona140235.136.010.881.12.4%
WestPacificCalgary320640.631.79.890.912.4%
WestPacificEdmonton220439.232.610.288.59.2%
WestPacificLos Angeles231537.833.310.986.57.2%
WestPacificSan Jose231542.329.710.194.623.5%
WestPacificVancouver420836.135.010.983.03.1%
WestPacificVegas340643.230.08.895.224.9%

NHL Odds to Advance In Playoffs

Below are the odds to advance to playoffs.

ConferenceDivisionTeamTo Make PlayoffsML to Make PlayoffsProb to Win ConfML to Win ConfProb to Win CupML to Win Cup
EastAtlanticBoston88.7%-78514.4%+5947.4%+1251
EastAtlanticBuffalo15.1%+5620.3%+332330.2%+49900
EastAtlanticDetroit1.1%+89910.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
EastAtlanticFlorida36.7%+1721.6%+61500.7%+14186
EastAtlanticMontreal29.1%+2440.4%+249000.1%+99900
EastAtlanticOttawa12.3%+7130.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
EastAtlanticTampa Bay96.3%-260323.6%+32414.8%+576
EastAtlanticToronto94.2%-162417.0%+4889.8%+920
EastMetropolitanCarolina53.2%-1142.7%+36041.1%+8991
EastMetropolitanColumbus60.3%-1524.3%+22261.7%+5782
EastMetropolitanNY Islanders16.9%+4920.5%+199000.1%+99900
EastMetropolitanNY Rangers7.2%+12890.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
EastMetropolitanNew Jersey84.1%-5299.5%+9534.4%+2173
EastMetropolitanPhiladelphia42.8%+1342.3%+42481.2%+8233
EastMetropolitanPittsburgh83.9%-52114.2%+6047.8%+1182
EastMetropolitanWashington78.1%-3579.2%+9874.7%+2028
WestCentralChicago35.7%+1801.1%+89910.4%+24900
WestCentralColorado51.2%-1052.6%+37460.8%+12400
WestCentralDallas64.7%-1837.5%+12333.1%+3126
WestCentralMinnesota56.8%-1316.5%+14381.3%+7592
WestCentralNashville96.0%-240030.5%+22817.0%+488
WestCentralSt Louis49.7%+1012.7%+36040.9%+11011
WestCentralWinnipeg89.6%-86219.9%+40310.9%+817
WestPacificAnaheim56.0%-1274.3%+22260.9%+11011
WestPacificArizona16.2%+5170.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
WestPacificCalgary51.9%-1083.2%+30251.2%+8233
WestPacificEdmonton42.6%+1351.9%+51630.8%+12400
WestPacificLos Angeles31.6%+2161.9%+51631.1%+8991
WestPacificSan Jose67.2%-2059.4%+9643.8%+2532
WestPacificVancouver21.6%+3630.3%+332330.2%+49900
WestPacificVegas69.2%-2258.2%+11203.6%+2678