Our projection system for the NHL is at Level 3, which is our highest level of analysis.
Today’s NHL Game Predictions – Wednesday, October 17th, 2018
| Date | Time | Teams | Lines – Updated 10/17 @ 5:55 pm | Odds to Win | Score Prediction | Total Goals | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
 |
 |
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| 10/17 | 7:00 pm | St Louis | ||||||
| Montreal | ||||||||
| 10/17 | 7:00 pm | NY Rangers | ||||||
| Washington | ||||||||
| 10/17 | 9:30 pm | Boston | ||||||
| Calgary | ||||||||
| 10/17 | 10:00 pm | NY Islanders | ||||||
| Anaheim | ||||||||
The money lines above are current as of the time listed in the header. The odds to win, score predictions, and total goals come from our proprietary formula that is based on multiple factors of data.
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Today’s NHL Picks and Game Analysis
Bet value is based on a proprietary formula. This formula takes into account all of the factors within the game like starting goalie, team strength, injuries, days of rest, etc and compares it to the money line. If the line changes through out the day, then you may see movement within the Bet Value as well. Games with an orange check mark have significant bet value on one or more of the money line, puck line and over/under.
New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals Game Analysis
Time: 7:00 pm ET
| Team | Record | Team Rank | Units W/L | Goals PG | Opp Goals PG | More Info | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Rangers | 2-4-0 | 30 | 0.71 | 2.17 | 3.33 | Matchup and Bet Value | |
| Washington Capitals | 2-2-1 | 6 | 0.17 | 4 | 2.4 | ||
| Starting Goalies: H Lundqvist (NYR) – Record: 2-3-0, B Holtby (WAS) – Record: 2-1-1 | |||||||
St. Louis Blues vs. Montreal Canadiens Game Analysis
Time: 7:00 pm ET
| Team | Record | Team Rank | Units W/L | Goals PG | Opp Goals PG | More Info | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Blues | 1-2-2 | 26 | 3.18 | 2.8 | 4 | Matchup and Bet Value | |
| Montreal Canadiens | 3-1-1 | 24 | -3.35 | 3.6 | 2.6 | ||
| Starting Goalies: J Allen (STL) – Record: 1-1-2, C Price (MTL) – Record: 1-1-1 | |||||||
Boston Bruins vs. Calgary Flames Game Analysis
Time: 9:30 pm ET
| Team | Record | Team Rank | Units W/L | Goals PG | Opp Goals PG | More Info | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Bruins | 4-1-0 | 5 | -2.01 | 4.4 | 2.6 | Matchup and Bet Value | |
| Calgary Flames | 3-2-0 | 13 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.2 | ||
| Starting Goalies: T Rask (BOS) – Record: 2-1-0, M Smith (CGY) – Record: 2-2-0 | |||||||
New York Islanders vs. Anaheim Ducks Game Analysis
Time: 10:00 pm ET
| Team | Record | Team Rank | Units W/L | Goals PG | Opp Goals PG | More Info | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Islanders | 2-2-0 | 21 | -2.35 | 2.75 | 2.25 | Matchup and Bet Value |
|
| Anaheim Ducks | 4-1-1 | 16 | -3.55 | 2.83 | 2.33 | ||
| Starting Goalies: T Greiss (NYI) – Record: 1-1-0, J Gibson (ANA) – Record: 3-1-1 | |||||||
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Tomorrow’s NHL Game Predictions – Wednesday, October 17th, 2018
| Date | Matchup | Teams | Odds to Win | Score Prediction | Total Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/18 | Philadelphia at Columbus | Philadelphia | |||
| Columbus | |||||
| 10/18 | Colorado at New Jersey | Colorado | |||
| New Jersey | |||||
| 10/18 | Pittsburgh at Toronto | Pittsburgh | |||
| Toronto | |||||
| 10/18 | Detroit at Tampa Bay | Detroit | |||
| Tampa Bay | |||||
| 10/18 | Vancouver at Winnipeg | Vancouver | |||
| Winnipeg | |||||
| 10/18 | Arizona at Chicago | Arizona | |||
| Chicago | |||||
| 10/18 | Boston at Edmonton | Boston | |||
| Edmonton | |||||
| 10/18 | NY Islanders at Los Angeles | NY Islanders | |||
| Los Angeles | |||||
| 10/18 | Buffalo at San Jose | Buffalo | |||
| San Jose |
Tomorrow’s game projections are simply listed with the odds for each team to win and score projections. We do not post the lines for these games because in most cases the lines aren’t out yet. These numbers may change on game day as we have more information about starting goalies, injuries, etc.
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Yesterday’s NHL Game Prediction Results
| Date | Teams | |
DRatings Odds to Win | Final Score | GTBets Log Loss | DRatings Log Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/16 | CAR | +145 | 0.344 | 2 | -0.50412 | -0.42159 |
| TB | -165 | 0.656 | 4 | |||
| 10/16 | EDM | +170 | 0.298 | 5 | -1.02962 | -1.21066 |
| WPG | -200 | 0.702 | 4 | |||
| 10/16 | ARI | +145 | 0.336 | 1 | -0.50412 | -0.40947 |
| MIN | -165 | 0.664 | 2 | |||
| 10/16 | BUF | +175 | 0.331 | 1 | -0.4297 | -0.40197 |
| VGK | -210 | 0.669 | 4 |
The table above lists how our projections have done against 5DImes (which is representative of most sportsbooks). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Log Loss is a lot more complicated. In a nutshell, lower is better, but for more detail see: Making Sense of Log Loss.
NHL Season Prediction Results
Yesterday
| Games | Wins | Losses | No Pick | Win Pct. | Log Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Dimes | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0.625 | -0.70651 |
| DRatings | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.74889 |
Last Week
| Games | Wins | Losses | No Pick | Win Pct. | Log Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Dimes | 44 | 23 | 20 | 1 | 0.534 | -0.68961 |
| DRatings | 44 | 23 | 21 | 0 | 0.523 | -0.70401 |
Last Two Weeks
| Games | Wins | Losses | No Pick | Win Pct. | Log Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Dimes | 85 | 47 | 37 | 1 | 0.559 | -0.68441 |
| DRatings | 85 | 47 | 38 | 0 | 0.553 | -0.68909 |
2018-2019
| Games | Wins | Losses | No Pick | Win Pct. | Log Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Dimes | 85 | 47 | 37 | 1 | 0.559 | -0.68441 |
| DRatings | 85 | 47 | 38 | 0 | 0.553 | -0.68909 |
All Time
| Games | Wins | Losses | No Pick | Win Pct. | Log Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbooks | 1440 | 841 | 572 | 27 | 0.593 | -0.67029 |
| DRatings | 1440 | 821 | 615 | 4 | 0.572 | -0.67525 |
NHL Futures and Playoff Probabilities
Below are our simulations for the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. The probabilities for advancement in each playoff series is based on a simulation with 1,000 trials. During the playoff season, this will be updated daily and will take into account the results of each played game.
Updated 10/10/2018.
NHL Record and Points Projection
Below are the projected records for every team in the NHL along with the probabilities that they win their division.
| Conference | Division | Team | Wins | Losses | OT Losses | Points | Proj Wins | Proj Losses | Proj OT Losses | Proj Points | Prob Win Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East | Atlantic | Boston | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 47.5 | 26.2 | 8.3 | 103.4 | 21.9% |
| East | Atlantic | Buffalo | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 36.2 | 35.1 | 10.7 | 83.1 | 0.4% |
| East | Atlantic | Detroit | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28.7 | 39.6 | 13.8 | 71.1 | 0.0% |
| East | Atlantic | Florida | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 38.8 | 31.4 | 11.8 | 89.4 | 1.4% |
| East | Atlantic | Montreal | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 38.1 | 32.4 | 11.5 | 87.7 | 1.3% |
| East | Atlantic | Ottawa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 34.8 | 35.1 | 12.0 | 81.7 | 0.1% |
| East | Atlantic | Tampa Bay | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 50.3 | 24.0 | 7.8 | 108.3 | 40.4% |
| East | Atlantic | Toronto | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 49.4 | 24.7 | 7.9 | 106.7 | 34.5% |
| East | Metropolitan | Carolina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 41.8 | 29.9 | 10.3 | 93.8 | 7.3% |
| East | Metropolitan | Columbus | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 43.1 | 29.7 | 9.2 | 95.4 | 11.0% |
| East | Metropolitan | NY Islanders | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 36.3 | 34.8 | 10.8 | 83.5 | 1.1% |
| East | Metropolitan | NY Rangers | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 34.0 | 37.0 | 10.9 | 79.0 | 0.3% |
| East | Metropolitan | New Jersey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 46.7 | 26.5 | 8.8 | 102.2 | 28.9% |
| East | Metropolitan | Philadelphia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 40.7 | 31.7 | 9.6 | 91.0 | 4.8% |
| East | Metropolitan | Pittsburgh | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 46.0 | 25.8 | 10.2 | 102.2 | 27.2% |
| East | Metropolitan | Washington | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 44.9 | 27.5 | 9.6 | 99.4 | 19.4% |
| West | Central | Chicago | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 38.0 | 31.5 | 12.6 | 88.5 | 2.0% |
| West | Central | Colorado | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 40.1 | 30.2 | 11.7 | 91.9 | 5.6% |
| West | Central | Dallas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 43.1 | 29.8 | 9.1 | 95.2 | 8.4% |
| West | Central | Minnesota | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 41.0 | 29.8 | 11.3 | 93.2 | 5.7% |
| West | Central | Nashville | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 49.7 | 24.5 | 7.7 | 107.2 | 48.0% |
| West | Central | St Louis | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 39.9 | 30.6 | 11.5 | 91.3 | 3.6% |
| West | Central | Winnipeg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 47.0 | 26.0 | 9.1 | 103.0 | 26.7% |
| West | Pacific | Anaheim | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 40.8 | 30.5 | 10.7 | 92.3 | 17.3% |
| West | Pacific | Arizona | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 35.1 | 36.0 | 10.8 | 81.1 | 2.4% |
| West | Pacific | Calgary | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 40.6 | 31.7 | 9.8 | 90.9 | 12.4% |
| West | Pacific | Edmonton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 39.2 | 32.6 | 10.2 | 88.5 | 9.2% |
| West | Pacific | Los Angeles | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 37.8 | 33.3 | 10.9 | 86.5 | 7.2% |
| West | Pacific | San Jose | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 42.3 | 29.7 | 10.1 | 94.6 | 23.5% |
| West | Pacific | Vancouver | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 36.1 | 35.0 | 10.9 | 83.0 | 3.1% |
| West | Pacific | Vegas | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 43.2 | 30.0 | 8.8 | 95.2 | 24.9% |
NHL Odds to Advance In Playoffs
Below are the odds to advance to playoffs.
| Conference | Division | Team | To Make Playoffs | ML to Make Playoffs | Prob to Win Conf | ML to Win Conf | Prob to Win Cup | ML to Win Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East | Atlantic | Boston | 88.7% | -785 | 14.4% | +594 | 7.4% | +1251 |
| East | Atlantic | Buffalo | 15.1% | +562 | 0.3% | +33233 | 0.2% | +49900 |
| East | Atlantic | Detroit | 1.1% | +8991 | 0.0% | No Odds | 0.0% | No Odds |
| East | Atlantic | Florida | 36.7% | +172 | 1.6% | +6150 | 0.7% | +14186 |
| East | Atlantic | Montreal | 29.1% | +244 | 0.4% | +24900 | 0.1% | +99900 |
| East | Atlantic | Ottawa | 12.3% | +713 | 0.0% | No Odds | 0.0% | No Odds |
| East | Atlantic | Tampa Bay | 96.3% | -2603 | 23.6% | +324 | 14.8% | +576 |
| East | Atlantic | Toronto | 94.2% | -1624 | 17.0% | +488 | 9.8% | +920 |
| East | Metropolitan | Carolina | 53.2% | -114 | 2.7% | +3604 | 1.1% | +8991 |
| East | Metropolitan | Columbus | 60.3% | -152 | 4.3% | +2226 | 1.7% | +5782 |
| East | Metropolitan | NY Islanders | 16.9% | +492 | 0.5% | +19900 | 0.1% | +99900 |
| East | Metropolitan | NY Rangers | 7.2% | +1289 | 0.0% | No Odds | 0.0% | No Odds |
| East | Metropolitan | New Jersey | 84.1% | -529 | 9.5% | +953 | 4.4% | +2173 |
| East | Metropolitan | Philadelphia | 42.8% | +134 | 2.3% | +4248 | 1.2% | +8233 |
| East | Metropolitan | Pittsburgh | 83.9% | -521 | 14.2% | +604 | 7.8% | +1182 |
| East | Metropolitan | Washington | 78.1% | -357 | 9.2% | +987 | 4.7% | +2028 |
| West | Central | Chicago | 35.7% | +180 | 1.1% | +8991 | 0.4% | +24900 |
| West | Central | Colorado | 51.2% | -105 | 2.6% | +3746 | 0.8% | +12400 |
| West | Central | Dallas | 64.7% | -183 | 7.5% | +1233 | 3.1% | +3126 |
| West | Central | Minnesota | 56.8% | -131 | 6.5% | +1438 | 1.3% | +7592 |
| West | Central | Nashville | 96.0% | -2400 | 30.5% | +228 | 17.0% | +488 |
| West | Central | St Louis | 49.7% | +101 | 2.7% | +3604 | 0.9% | +11011 |
| West | Central | Winnipeg | 89.6% | -862 | 19.9% | +403 | 10.9% | +817 |
| West | Pacific | Anaheim | 56.0% | -127 | 4.3% | +2226 | 0.9% | +11011 |
| West | Pacific | Arizona | 16.2% | +517 | 0.0% | No Odds | 0.0% | No Odds |
| West | Pacific | Calgary | 51.9% | -108 | 3.2% | +3025 | 1.2% | +8233 |
| West | Pacific | Edmonton | 42.6% | +135 | 1.9% | +5163 | 0.8% | +12400 |
| West | Pacific | Los Angeles | 31.6% | +216 | 1.9% | +5163 | 1.1% | +8991 |
| West | Pacific | San Jose | 67.2% | -205 | 9.4% | +964 | 3.8% | +2532 |
| West | Pacific | Vancouver | 21.6% | +363 | 0.3% | +33233 | 0.2% | +49900 |
| West | Pacific | Vegas | 69.2% | -225 | 8.2% | +1120 | 3.6% | +2678 |