NHL Hockey Predictions


All of today’s NHL hockey picks and predictions are listed below along with the odds to win from three reputable sportsbooks. As of late 2017, we are now taking into account more information to make our predictions as accurate as possible. That said, a team’s starting goalie has been added to our formula. This effects each team’s percentage to win and the total goals scored in a game. These predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only.

Our projection system for the NHL is at Level 3, which is our highest level of analysis.

Today’s NHL Game Predictions – Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019

Date Time Teams Lines – Updated 4/23 @ 10:05 am Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Goals
4/23 10:00 pm Vegas
-104
-105
-105
44.1%
2.50
5.32
San Jose
-106
-115
-105
55.9%
2.81
4/23 7:00 pm Toronto
+125
+125
+125
41.6%
2.43
5.31
Boston
-138
-145
-135
58.4%
2.88

The money lines above are current as of the time listed in the header. The odds to win, score predictions, and total goals come from our proprietary formula that is based on multiple factors of data.

Today’s NHL Picks and Game Analysis

Bet value is based on a proprietary formula. This formula takes into account all of the factors within the game like starting goalie, team strength, injuries, days of rest, etc and compares it to the money line. If the line changes through out the day, then you may see movement within the Bet Value as well. The icons are explained below.

: There is Bet Value on the money line.
: There is Bet Value on the puck line.
: There is Bet Value on the over/under.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins Game Analysis

Time: 7:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Toronto Maple Leafs 49-31-8 10 -5.08 3.43 3.06 Matchup and Bet Value
Boston Bruins 52-27-9 5 0.78 3.15 2.63
Starting Goalies: F Andersen (TOR) – Record: 36-16-6, T Rask (BOS) – Record: 27-12-5

Vegas Golden Knights vs. San Jose Sharks Game Analysis

Time: 10:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Vegas Golden Knights 46-34-8 12 -11.25 3.07 2.82 Matchup and Bet Value
San Jose Sharks 49-30-9 13 4.53 3.49 3.19
Starting Goalies: M Fleury (VGK) – Record: 35-20-5, M Jones (SJ) – Record: 35-19-5

Tomorrow’s NHL Game Predictions – Wednesday, April 24th, 2019

Date Matchup Teams Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Goals
4/24 Carolina at Washington Carolina
42.7%
2.41
5.20
Washington
57.3%
2.79

Tomorrow’s game projections are simply listed with the odds for each team to win and score projections. We do not post the lines for these games because in most cases the lines aren’t out yet. These numbers may change on game day as we have more information about starting goalies, injuries, etc.

Yesterday’s NHL Game Prediction Results

Date Teams SB Consensus DRatings to Win Final Score SB Consensus Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
4/22 NSH +124 0.482 1 -0.57227 -0.65778
DAL -137 0.518 2
4/22 WAS +110 0.453 2 -0.62755 -0.60331
CAR -120 0.547 5

The table above lists how our projections have done against the sportsbook consensus. Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Log Loss is a lot more complicated. In a nutshell, lower is better, but for more detail see: Making Sense of Log Loss.

NHL Season Prediction Results

Yesterday
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 2 2 0 0 1 -0.59991
DRatings 2 2 0 0 1 -0.63054
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 19 7 10 2 0.421 -0.74044
DRatings 19 9 10 0 0.474 -0.7285
Last Month
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 146 72 67 7 0.517 -0.70925
DRatings 146 75 70 1 0.517 -0.70702
2018-2019
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 1314 732 539 43 0.573 -0.67607
DRatings 1314 742 565 7 0.567 -0.67991
All Time
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 2669 1526 1074 69 0.585 -0.67269
DRatings 2669 1516 1142 11 0.57 -0.6771

NHL Futures and Playoff Probabilities

Below are our simulations for the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. The probabilities for advancement in each playoff series is based on a simulation with 1,000 trials. During the playoff season, this will be updated daily and will take into account the results of each played game.

Updated 4/23/2019 @ 10:20am.

NHL Odds to Advance in Each Series

Below are the projected games to win each series for every team playoff match in the NHL.

(1) Tampa Bay vs. (WC2) Columbus

Columbus has won the series 4-0.

Rank Team Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 Win Series
1 Tampa Bay 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
WC2 Columbus 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%

(2) Boston vs. (3) Toronto

The series is tied 3 to 3.

Rank Team Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 Win Series
2 Boston 0% 0% 0% 58.9% 58.9%
3 Toronto 0% 0% 0% 41.1% 41.1%

(1) Washington vs. (WC1) Carolina

The series is tied 3 to 3.

Rank Team Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 Win Series
1 Washington 0% 0% 0% 57.1% 57.1%
WC1 Carolina 0% 0% 0% 42.9% 42.9%

(2) NY Islanders vs. (3) Pittsburgh

NY Islanders has won the series 4-0.

Rank Team Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 Win Series
2 NY Islanders 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%
3 Pittsburgh 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

(1) Nashville vs. (WC2) Dallas

Dallas has won the series 4-2.

Rank Team Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 Win Series
1 Nashville 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
WC2 Dallas 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

(2) Winnipeg vs. (3) St Louis

St Louis has won the series 4-2.

Rank Team Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 Win Series
2 Winnipeg 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3 St Louis 0% 0% 100% 0% 100%

(1) Calgary vs. (WC1) Colorado

Colorado has won the series 4-1.

Rank Team Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 Win Series
1 Calgary 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
WC1 Colorado 0% 100% 0% 0% 100%

(2) San Jose vs. (3) Vegas

The series is tied 3 to 3.

Rank Team Win in 4 Win in 5 Win in 6 Win in 7 Win Series
2 San Jose 0% 0% 0% 58.4% 58.4%
3 Vegas 0% 0% 0% 41.6% 41.6%

NHL Odds to Advance In Playoffs

Below are the odds to advance to different stages in the playoffs.

Eastern Conference – Atlantic

Rank Team To Make 2nd Round To Make the Semis To Win Conference To Win Stanley Cup
1 Tampa Bay 0% 0% 0% 0%
WC2 Columbus 100% 46.6% 23.1% 11.3%
2 Boston 58.9% 31.9% 17.6% 10.3%
3 Toronto 41.1% 21.5% 11.3% 6.4%

Eastern Conference – Metropolitan

Rank Team To Make 2nd Round To Make the Semis To Win Conference To Win Stanley Cup
1 Washington 57.1% 32.7% 16.6% 9%
WC1 Carolina 42.9% 20.1% 11% 5.1%
2 NY Islanders 100% 47.2% 20.4% 9.9%
3 Pittsburgh 0% 0% 0% 0%

Western Conference – Central

Rank Team To Make 2nd Round To Make the Semis To Win Conference To Win Stanley Cup
1 Nashville 0% 0% 0% 0%
WC2 Dallas 100% 39.8% 17.5% 7.7%
2 Winnipeg 0% 0% 0% 0%
3 St Louis 100% 60.2% 33.9% 16.7%

Western Conference – Pacific

Rank Team To Make 2nd Round To Make the Semis To Win Conference To Win Stanley Cup
1 Calgary 0% 0% 0% 0%
WC1 Colorado 100% 35.4% 14.3% 6.7%
2 San Jose 58.4% 36.8% 19.8% 9.3%
3 Vegas 41.6% 27.8% 14.5% 7.6%