NHL Hockey Predictions


All of today’s NHL hockey picks and predictions are listed below along with the odds to win from three reputable sportsbooks. As of late 2017, we are now taking into account more information to make our predictions as accurate as possible. That said, a team’s starting goalie has been added to our formula. This effects each team’s percentage to win and the total goals scored in a game. These predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only.

Our projection system for the NHL is at Level 3, which is our highest level of analysis.

Today’s NHL Game Predictions – Thursday, February 20th, 2019

Date Time Teams Lines – Updated 2/21 @ 6:33 pm Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Goals
2/21 7:00 pm Carolina
-109
-115
-115
45.8%
2.87
6.01
Florida
-101
-105
-105
54.2%
3.13
2/21 7:00 pm Ottawa
+132
+120
+127
39.9%
3.08
6.85
New Jersey
-146
-140
-137
60.1%
3.77
2/21 7:00 pm Minnesota
-107
+100
+100
49.4%
2.93
5.90
NY Rangers
-103
-120
-110
50.6%
2.96
2/21 7:00 pm San Jose
-108
-110
-105
45.8%
3.41
7.12
Pittsburgh
-102
-110
-105
54.2%
3.70
2/21 7:00 pm Washington
+152
+155
+156
40.2%
2.93
6.50
Toronto
-169
-175
-166
59.8%
3.57
2/21 7:30 pm Philadelphia
+131
+130
+135
41.6%
2.70
5.89
Montreal
-145
-150
-145
58.4%
3.19
2/21 7:30 pm Buffalo
+223
+225
+230
28%
2.49
6.40
Tampa Bay
-251
-275
-250
72%
3.90
2/21 8:00 pm Los Angeles
+194
+190
+197
30.8%
2.17
5.37
Nashville
-217
-230
-217
69.2%
3.20
2/21 8:30 pm St Louis
-107
-120
-108
46%
2.18
4.55
Dallas
-103
+100
-102
54%
2.36
2/21 9:00 pm NY Islanders
-111
-120
-110
48%
2.72
5.55
Edmonton
+101
+100
+100
52%
2.83
2/21 10:00 pm Arizona
+106
+100
+106
46.7%
2.46
5.10
Vancouver
-117
-120
-116
53.3%
2.63

The money lines above are current as of the time listed in the header. The odds to win, score predictions, and total goals come from our proprietary formula that is based on multiple factors of data.

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Today’s NHL Picks and Game Analysis

Bet value is based on a proprietary formula. This formula takes into account all of the factors within the game like starting goalie, team strength, injuries, days of rest, etc and compares it to the money line. If the line changes through out the day, then you may see movement within the Bet Value as well. The icons are explained below.

: There is Bet Value on the money line.
: There is Bet Value on the puck line.
: There is Bet Value on the over/under.

San Jose Sharks vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Game Analysis

Time: 7:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
San Jose Sharks 35-17-8 3 7.08 3.65 3.15 Matchup and Bet Value
Pittsburgh Penguins 32-21-7 9 1.68 3.5 3.1
Starting Goalies: M Jones (SJ) – Record: 28-11-5, C DeSmith (PIT) – Record: 14-10-5

Minnesota Wild vs. New York Rangers Game Analysis

Time: 7:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Minnesota Wild 27-27-6 20 -7.81 2.73 3 Matchup and Bet Value
New York Rangers 26-25-8 19 1.37 2.92 3.31
Starting Goalies: D Dubnyk (MIN) – Record: 21-21-5, H Lundqvist (NYR) – Record: 17-15-8

Ottawa Senators vs. New Jersey Devils Game Analysis

Time: 7:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Ottawa Senators 22-32-5 31 -8.13 3.15 3.71 Matchup and Bet Value
New Jersey Devils 23-29-8 27 -8.04 2.92 3.47
Starting Goalies: A Nilsson (OTT) – Record: 10-14-1, C Schneider (NJD) – Record: 2-7-2

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers Game Analysis

Time: 7:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Carolina Hurricanes 31-23-6 14 -1.67 2.9 2.78 Matchup and Bet Value
Florida Panthers 26-24-8 18 -7.12 3.12 3.43
Starting Goalies: P Mrazek (CAR) – Record: 13-12-3, J Reimer (FLA) – Record: 13-10-5

Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Game Analysis

Time: 7:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Washington Capitals 33-20-7 11 -3.01 3.37 3.18 Matchup and Bet Value
Toronto Maple Leafs 36-19-4 4 0.96 3.53 2.83
Starting Goalies: B Holtby (WAS) – Record: 20-15-4, F Andersen (TOR) – Record: 27-12-3

Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game Analysis

Time: 7:30 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Buffalo Sabres 28-24-7 23 -0.59 2.88 3.14 Matchup and Bet Value
Tampa Bay Lightning 46-11-4 1 9.38 3.97 2.66
Starting Goalies: L Ullmark (BUF) – Record: 13-7-4, A Vasilevskiy (TB) – Record: 26-7-4

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Montreal Canadiens Game Analysis

Time: 7:30 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Philadelphia Flyers 28-25-7 17 -1.87 2.97 3.35 Matchup and Bet Value
Montreal Canadiens 32-21-7 15 0.46 2.98 2.93
Starting Goalies: C Hart (PHI) – Record: 13-7-1, C Price (MTL) – Record: 24-16-5

Los Angeles Kings vs. Nashville Predators Game Analysis

Time: 8:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Los Angeles Kings 23-30-6 26 -8.04 2.42 3.08 Matchup and Bet Value
Nashville Predators 35-22-5 10 -2.28 3.08 2.63
Starting Goalies: J Quick (LA) – Record: 11-14-5, P Rinne (NSH) – Record: 21-15-3

St. Louis Blues vs. Dallas Stars Game Analysis

Time: 8:30 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
St. Louis Blues 32-22-5 7 12.37 3 2.78 Matchup and Bet Value
Dallas Stars 29-25-5 16 -3.71 2.51 2.61
Starting Goalies: J Binnington (STL) – Record: 13-1-1, A Khudobin (DAL) – Record: 10-13-3

New York Islanders vs. Edmonton Oilers Game Analysis

Time: 9:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
New York Islanders 35-18-6 5 13.79 2.9 2.41 Matchup and Bet Value
Edmonton Oilers 24-29-6 29 -10.98 2.8 3.36
Starting Goalies: R Lehner (NYI) – Record: 18-9-4, M Koskinen (EDM) – Record: 14-14-3

Arizona Coyotes vs. Vancouver Canucks Game Analysis

Time: 10:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Goals PG Opp Goals PG More Info
Arizona Coyotes 27-28-5 21 5.24 2.62 2.9 Matchup and Bet Value
Vancouver Canucks 26-27-7 25 2.99 2.83 3.13
Starting Goalies: D Kuemper (ARI) – Record: 15-14-5, J Markstrom (VAN) – Record: 22-17-6

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Tomorrow’s NHL Game Predictions – Friday, February 22nd, 2019

Date Matchup Teams Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Goals
2/22 Columbus at Ottawa Columbus
60.4%
3.72
6.75
Ottawa
39.6%
3.02
2/22 Colorado at Chicago Colorado
47.9%
3.37
6.88
Chicago
52.1%
3.51
2/22 Minnesota at Detroit Minnesota
48.2%
2.81
5.73
Detroit
51.8%
2.92
2/22 Anaheim at Calgary Anaheim
30.2%
2.26
5.64
Calgary
69.8%
3.38
2/22 Winnipeg at Vegas Winnipeg
43.3%
2.74
5.89
Vegas
56.7%
3.14

Tomorrow’s game projections are simply listed with the odds for each team to win and score projections. We do not post the lines for these games because in most cases the lines aren’t out yet. These numbers may change on game day as we have more information about starting goalies, injuries, etc.


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Yesterday’s NHL Game Prediction Results

Date Teams DRatings Odds to Win Final Score GTBets Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
2/20 CHI +105 0.47 5 -0.76029 -0.75502
DET -125 0.53 4
2/20 WPG -110 0.491 1 -0.69315 -0.67531
COL -110 0.509 7
2/20 NYI +125 0.403 2 -0.56016 -0.51584
CGY -145 0.597 4
2/20 BOS +120 0.431 3 -0.82564 -0.84165
VGK -140 0.569 2

The table above lists how our projections have done against 5Dimes (which is representative of most sportsbooks). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Log Loss is a lot more complicated. In a nutshell, lower is better, but for more detail see: Making Sense of Log Loss.

NHL Season Prediction Results

Yesterday
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 4 1 2 1 0.375 -0.70981
DRatings 4 2 2 0 0.5 -0.69695
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 52 29 20 3 0.587 -0.68372
DRatings 52 26 26 0 0.5 -0.70216
Last Month
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 164 88 70 6 0.555 -0.68125
DRatings 164 85 78 1 0.521 -0.69224
2018-2019
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
5Dimes 928 510 387 31 0.566 -0.6801
DRatings 928 522 402 4 0.565 -0.68517
All Time
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
Sportsbooks 2283 1304 922 57 0.584 -0.67375
DRatings 2283 1296 979 8 0.569 -0.67877

NHL Futures and Playoff Probabilities

Below are our simulations for the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. The probabilities for advancement in each playoff series is based on a simulation with 1,000 trials. During the playoff season, this will be updated daily and will take into account the results of each played game.

NHL Record and Points Projection

Below are the projected records for every team in the NHL along with the probabilities that they win their division.

AtlanticProj WinsProj LossesProj OT LossesProj PointsProb Win DivisionProb to Make Playoffs
Boston46.924.710.5104.20.1%99.4%
Buffalo38.733.210.187.50.0%9.7%
Detroit32.138.711.275.30.0%0.0%
Florida38.033.011.087.00.0%9.2%
Montreal43.029.29.895.80.0%72.7%
Ottawa30.842.78.570.10.0%0.0%
Tampa Bay58.817.26.0123.699.8%100.0%
Toronto49.126.46.5104.80.1%99.4%

MetropolitanProj WinsProj LossesProj OT LossesProj PointsProb Win DivisionProb to Make Playoffs
Carolina42.131.28.792.80.7%50.4%
Columbus44.931.35.895.56.1%75.2%
NY Islanders47.725.58.8104.365.9%98.5%
NY Rangers36.434.411.284.00.0%2.3%
New Jersey32.938.111.076.80.0%0.0%
Philadelphia38.733.59.887.20.1%10.9%
Pittsburgh44.028.59.597.511.5%83.7%
Washington44.527.99.798.615.7%88.6%

CentralProj WinsProj LossesProj OT LossesProj PointsProb Win DivisionProb to Make Playoffs
Chicago35.134.912.082.20.0%17.1%
Colorado35.332.813.984.50.0%35.8%
Dallas40.933.47.889.50.3%77.5%
Minnesota37.735.58.884.30.0%33.4%
Nashville46.028.87.399.223.7%99.6%
St Louis44.329.97.796.49.1%98.9%
Winnipeg48.327.06.7103.366.9%100.0%

PacificProj WinsProj LossesProj OT LossesProj PointsProb Win DivisionProb to Make Playoffs
Anaheim33.936.112.179.80.0%6.2%
Arizona37.136.98.082.20.0%19.0%
Calgary49.523.29.3108.368.0%100.0%
Edmonton34.538.39.178.20.0%4.0%
Los Angeles33.139.79.375.40.0%0.5%
San Jose47.524.210.3105.331.6%100.0%
Vancouver35.936.110.081.70.0%13.5%
Vegas43.532.26.393.20.4%94.5%

NHL Odds to Advance In Playoffs

Below are the odds to advance to different stages in the playoffs.

EastTeamTo Make PlayoffsML to Make PlayoffsProb to Win ConfML to Win ConfProb to Win CupML to Win Cup
AtlanticBoston99.4%-1656713.6%+6357.9%+1166
AtlanticBuffalo9.7%+9310.1%+999000.0%No Odds
AtlanticDetroit0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AtlanticFlorida9.2%+9870.6%+165670.4%+24900
AtlanticMontreal72.7%-2663.0%+32331.4%+7043
AtlanticOttawa0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AtlanticTampa Bay100.0%No Odds35.9%+17924.0%+317
AtlanticToronto99.4%-1656713.6%+6357.4%+1251
MetropolitanCarolina50.4%-1022.6%+37461.0%+9900
MetropolitanColumbus75.2%-3035.5%+17182.4%+4067
MetropolitanNY Islanders98.5%-65678.4%+10904.7%+2028
MetropolitanNY Rangers2.3%+42480.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
MetropolitanNew Jersey0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
MetropolitanPhiladelphia10.9%+8170.7%+141860.3%+33233
MetropolitanPittsburgh83.7%-5138.6%+10634.4%+2173
MetropolitanWashington88.6%-7777.4%+12512.8%+3471

WestTeamTo Make PlayoffsML to Make PlayoffsProb to Win ConfML to Win ConfProb to Win CupML to Win Cup
CentralChicago17.1%+4850.6%+165670.1%+99900
CentralColorado35.8%+1790.7%+141860.1%+99900
CentralDallas77.5%-3443.3%+29301.0%+9900
CentralMinnesota33.4%+1991.4%+70430.3%+33233
CentralNashville99.6%-2490013.9%+6194.9%+1941
CentralSt Louis98.9%-89919.3%+9753.3%+2930
CentralWinnipeg100.0%No Odds16.7%+4997.3%+1270
PacificAnaheim6.2%+15130.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
PacificArizona19.0%+4260.3%+332330.1%+99900
PacificCalgary100.0%No Odds21.3%+36910.8%+826
PacificEdmonton4.0%+24000.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
PacificLos Angeles0.5%+199000.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
PacificSan Jose100.0%No Odds22.2%+35011.1%+801
PacificVancouver13.5%+6410.4%+249000.0%No Odds
PacificVegas94.5%-17189.9%+9104.3%+2226