NHL Hockey Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 11, 2021

TimeTeamsGoaliesWinBest
Line
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Colorado Avalanche (27-9-4)
Anaheim Ducks (12-22-7)
Philipp Grubauer
John Gibson
76.0%
24.0%
-320
+280
-330
+300
3.60
1.82
5.42
o5½-113
u5½+102
o5½-115
u5½+100
Pittsburgh Penguins (26-13-2)
New Jersey Devils (14-19-6)
Tristan Jarry
MacKenzie Blackwood
66.5%
33.5%
-165
+150
-160
+155
3.48
2.22
5.70
o6-105
u6-105
o6-110
u6-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
New York Rangers (19-16-5)
New York Islanders (26-11-4)
Igor Shesterkin
Ilya Sorokin
46.7%
53.3%
+110
-121
+115
-120
2.67
3.02
5.69
o5½+104
u5½-115
o5½+100
u5½-115
Washington Capitals (26-11-4)
Boston Bruins (21-11-6)
Vitek Vanecek
Daniel Vladar
54.5%
45.5%
-123
+115
-120
+111
3.13
2.65
5.78
o5½-112
u5½+102
o5½-110
u5½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Dallas Stars (15-14-10)
Nashville Predators (22-19-1)
Jake Oettinger
Juuse Saros
52.6%
47.4%
-105
-105
-109
+100
2.76
2.48
5.23
o5½+130
u5+110
o5-120
u5½-140
Games for Apr 10, 2021

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
Line
Orig. Total
Goals
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Arizona Coyotes (19-17-5)
Vegas Golden Knights (26-11-2)
30.5%
69.5%
+215
-235
+220
-241
5.30
o5½-118
u5½+107
o5½-115
u5½+105
1st P
END-
0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
Line
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Buffalo Sabres
Philadelphia Flyers
45.9%
54.1%
+191
-210
+195
-210
5
3
-1.08901-1.09808-0.77899
Los Angeles Kings
San Jose Sharks
46.7%
53.3%
+123
-136
+127
-132
4
2
-0.82640-0.82924-0.76228
Edmonton Oilers
Calgary Flames
56.4%
43.6%
-111
+101
-114
+104
0
5
-0.72144-0.73560-0.83025
Minnesota Wild
St. Louis Blues
50.2%
49.8%
-122
+115
-121
+113
2
3
-0.78001-0.77297-0.69679
Tampa Bay Lightning
Nashville Predators
67.5%
32.5%
-173
+160
-165
+155
3
0
-0.47433-0.48848-0.39347
Detroit Red Wings
Carolina Hurricanes
21.0%
79.0%
+299
-343
+300
-333
5
4
-1.40838-1.40515-1.55946
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks93-6 (0.333)0-0.78051 
Sportsbooks93-6 (0.333)0-0.78311 
DRatings92-7 (0.222)0-0.76929
0.01122
0.01382

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/10/21
 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLTPtsMake PlayoffsWin DivisionStanley Cup
1Toronto Maple Leafs (28-10-3, 59 pts)36.715.04.377.7100.0%88.6%11.0%
2Colorado Avalanche (27-9-4, 58 pts)36.913.95.279.0100.0%73.5%12.4%
3Carolina Hurricanes (27-9-4, 58 pts)36.414.25.478.3100.0%44.2%11.6%
4Tampa Bay Lightning (28-11-2, 58 pts)37.415.43.278.1100.0%52.7%21.0%
5New York Islanders (26-11-4, 56 pts)34.516.15.374.498.6%35.1%7.0%
6Washington Capitals (26-11-4, 56 pts)33.916.65.573.397.4%27.3%4.1%
7Florida Panthers (26-12-4, 56 pts)33.017.55.571.599.7%3.1%3.7%
8Vegas Golden Knights (26-11-2, 54 pts)36.316.43.475.9100.0%24.8%7.1%
9Pittsburgh Penguins (26-13-2, 54 pts)35.317.43.373.999.1%29.3%7.7%
10Winnipeg Jets (25-13-3, 53 pts)33.118.54.570.699.7%8.4%2.5%
11Edmonton Oilers (25-15-2, 52 pts)32.620.03.468.699.2%2.7%3.1%
12Minnesota Wild (24-13-3, 51 pts)32.918.64.570.399.2%1.7%0.9%
13Boston Bruins (21-11-6, 48 pts)31.417.07.670.489.6%8.3%4.7%
14Nashville Predators (22-19-1, 45 pts)28.624.82.659.846.9%0.0%0.4%
15Philadelphia Flyers (19-15-6, 44 pts)26.721.67.761.15.0%0.0%0.1%
16St. Louis Blues (19-16-6, 44 pts)26.122.27.659.947.4%0.0%0.2%
17Montreal Canadiens (17-12-9, 43 pts)26.318.910.963.490.4%0.3%1.6%
18New York Rangers (19-16-5, 43 pts)27.621.86.561.810.3%0.0%0.2%
19Arizona Coyotes (19-17-5, 43 pts)25.823.46.858.334.8%0.0%0.1%
20Chicago Blackhawks (19-18-5, 43 pts)25.424.16.557.416.7%0.0%0.1%
21Dallas Stars (15-14-10, 40 pts)23.520.611.858.936.2%0.0%0.6%
22San Jose Sharks (18-18-4, 40 pts)25.125.05.956.111.1%0.0%0.0%
23Los Angeles Kings (16-18-6, 38 pts)23.424.87.854.67.5%0.0%0.0%
24Columbus Blue Jackets (15-20-8, 38 pts)20.725.79.651.00.5%0.0%0.0%
25Calgary Flames (17-21-3, 37 pts)24.227.14.753.13.3%0.0%0.0%
26Vancouver Canucks (16-18-3, 35 pts)24.826.25.054.67.4%0.0%0.0%
27New Jersey Devils (14-19-6, 34 pts)20.527.38.249.10.0%0.0%0.0%
28Detroit Red Wings (14-23-6, 34 pts)18.829.57.745.30.0%0.0%0.0%
29Anaheim Ducks (12-22-7, 31 pts)17.529.59.044.00.0%0.0%0.0%
30Ottawa Senators (13-25-4, 30 pts)18.331.85.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%
31Buffalo Sabres (9-25-6, 24 pts)14.133.68.336.50.0%0.0%0.0%

Hockey Methodology

All of our NHL hockey picks and predictions are listed above along with the odds to win. As of late 2017, we are now taking into account more information to make our predictions as accurate as possible. These predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only.

The current process simulates the regular season 500 times and the playoffs 1,000 times. Our simulations follow all of the rules of the NHL tiebreaker system which are as follows.

  1. Points: Most points accured by a team. In the case of uneven games played, it is point percentage.
  2. RW: Games won, not including those from overtime or shootout.
  3. ROW: Games won, not including those from shootout.
  4. Total Wins: Full number of wins.
  5. There are three more criteria which fulfill this list, but it is very unlikely that a scenario would fall this far.

Our projection system for the NHL is at Level 3, which one can read about in our Predictions Disclaimer.