English Premier League Predictions

Updated

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Games for May 20, 2024
Games for May 22, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Everton
Arsenal		8.0%
77.5%		14.4%
+1250
-447
+1200
-500
1
2		-0.21879-0.22086-0.25435
Tottenham
Sheffield United		67.7%
13.2%		19.1%
-279
+700
-297
+650
3
0		-0.33109-0.33205-0.39032
Fulham
Luton Town		50.2%
24.0%		25.7%
+120
+210
+120
+196
4
2		-0.81522-0.83298-0.68824
West Ham United
Manchester City		4.8%
84.7%		10.5%
+2800
-1300
+2750
-1750
1
3		-0.10340-0.10218-0.16596
Manchester United
Brighton and Hove Albion		30.7%
42.0%		27.4%
+143
+168
+190
+165
2
0		-0.91604-1.03911-1.18250
Wolverhampton
Liverpool		6.0%
81.2%		12.8%
+1553
-714
+1475
-750
0
2		-0.16214-0.16372-0.20838
Nottingham Forest
Burnley		20.9%
53.5%		25.6%
+135
+192
+130
+184
2
1		-0.88179-0.87849-1.56475
Bournemouth
Chelsea		9.1%
74.7%		16.3%
+598
-240
+575
-225
1
2		-0.38010-0.38815-0.29216
Newcastle United
Brentford		39.9%
32.3%		27.8%
+120
+202
+125
+200
4
2		-0.81876-0.83833-0.91889
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace		29.3%
43.4%		27.3%
+379
-153
+370
-120
0
5		-0.53340-0.58539-0.83365
Newcastle United
Manchester United		23.7%
51.6%		24.6%
+141
+177
+140
+175
2
3		-1.03851-1.04957-0.66070
Chelsea
Brighton and Hove Albion		37.0%
34.3%		28.8%
+105
+244
+102
+235
2
1		-0.73432-0.74573-0.99550
Manchester City
Tottenham		55.4%
21.8%		22.8%
-251
+580
-280
+600
2
0		-0.35358-0.34432-0.59074
Liverpool
Aston Villa		53.7%
22.6%		23.7%
-126
+296
-128
+280
3
3		-1.56170-1.56715-1.43881
Arsenal
Manchester United		44.0%
29.6%		26.5%
-330
+825
-340
+860
1
0		-0.29600-0.28696-0.82194
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest		58.4%
17.9%		23.6%
-115
+323
-120
+292
3
2		-0.64078-0.65547-0.53739
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1010-0-0 (1.000)0-0.51607 
Sportsbooks109-1-0 (0.900)0-0.53813 
DRatings108-2-0 (0.800)0-0.64992
-0.13385
-0.11179

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/15/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (27-3-7, 88 pts)27.63.27.389.978.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Arsenal (27-5-5, 86 pts)27.55.25.387.721.4%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Liverpool (23-4-10, 79 pts)23.54.210.380.90.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Aston Villa (20-9-8, 68 pts)20.59.38.369.70.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
5Tottenham (19-12-6, 63 pts)19.712.16.265.40.0%0.0%95.9%0.0%
6Chelsea (17-11-9, 60 pts)17.411.39.361.60.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
7Newcastle United (17-14-6, 57 pts)17.514.26.358.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Manchester United (17-14-6, 57 pts)17.414.36.358.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9West Ham United (14-13-10, 52 pts)14.213.610.352.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Brighton and Hove Albion (12-13-12, 48 pts)12.313.412.349.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Bournemouth (13-15-9, 48 pts)13.315.49.349.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Crystal Palace (12-15-10, 46 pts)12.315.510.347.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Wolverhampton (13-17-7, 46 pts)13.217.57.346.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Fulham (12-17-8, 44 pts)12.617.28.246.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Everton (13-15-9, 42 pts)13.215.59.343.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Brentford (10-18-9, 39 pts)10.218.59.339.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Nottingham Forest (8-20-9, 29 pts)8.420.39.330.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18Luton Town (6-23-8, 26 pts)6.223.68.226.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
19Burnley (5-23-9, 24 pts)5.323.49.325.20.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Sheffield United (3-27-7, 16 pts)3.127.77.216.50.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.