German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 18, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
RB Leipzig
Eintracht Frankfurt 		42.6%
32.6%		24.8%
+125
+205

1.54
1.32		2.86
o3¼-103
u3¼-112

Borussia Monchengladbach
VfB Stuttgart 		33.5%
41.7%		24.8%
+815
-316

1.34
1.52		2.86
o3¾-122
u4-124

Bayern Munich
Hoffenheim 		63.9%
17.1%		19.0%
-118
+249

2.29
1.10		3.39
o4-103
u4-110

Darmstadt 98
Dortmund 		9.4%
77.0%		13.6%
+1225
-575

0.95
2.87		3.82
o4+100
u4-115

VfL Bochum
Werder Bremen 		22.4%
55.5%		22.1%
+178
+145

1.15
1.93		3.08
o3-115
u3+104

Freiburg
Union Berlin 		30.5%
43.3%		26.2%
+245
+120

1.16
1.43		2.59
o2½-110
u2½-105

FC Koln
FC Heidenheim 		40.1%
33.9%		26.0%
+140
+179

1.40
1.26		2.66
o3-112
u3-105

Augsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 		10.2%
74.6%		15.2%
+810
-306

0.88
2.62		3.50
o3¾-112
u4-133

Mainz 05
Wolfsburg 		30.5%
44.2%		25.3%
+131
+214

1.22
1.51		2.73
o2½-133
u2¾-112

Games for May 17, 2024
Games for May 19, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfL Bochum		60.2%
19.1%		20.7%
-129
+372
-135
+351
5
0		-0.58709-0.59363-0.50771
Wolfsburg
Bayern Munich		5.6%
83.9%		10.5%
+520
-199
+550
-215
0
2		-0.43094-0.39999-0.17527
Hoffenheim
Darmstadt 98		40.7%
34.3%		25.0%
-175
+405
-160
+370
6
0		-0.48388-0.52347-0.89934
Dortmund
Mainz 05		39.4%
35.3%		25.3%
+275
-106
+265
+115
0
3		-0.68082-0.74830-1.04112
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig		9.4%
76.4%		14.2%
+645
-247
+660
-290
1
1		-1.75446-1.81149-1.95059
Union Berlin
FC Koln		31.4%
42.9%		25.7%
+183
+162
+170
+170
2
3		-0.99190-1.03609-0.84700
FC Heidenheim
Freiburg		10.5%
73.4%		16.1%
+355
-133
+351
-135
1
1		-1.45423-1.43146-1.82455
Eintracht Frankfurt
Borussia Monchengladbach		23.5%
54.8%		21.7%
+155
+172
+155
+161
1
1		-1.34788-1.34285-1.52841
VfB Stuttgart
Augsburg		31.5%
43.3%		25.2%
-128
+305
-130
+310
1
0		-0.60789-0.60728-1.15483
Mainz 05
FC Heidenheim		42.5%
31.7%		25.8%
+146
+201
+145
+188
1
1		-1.27690-1.28471-1.35421
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Eintracht Frankfurt		42.4%
32.7%		24.8%
+144
+194
+140
+200
5
1		-0.91862-0.90589-0.85713
VfL Bochum
Union Berlin		14.2%
67.0%		18.7%
+305
+102
+320
-105
4
3		-1.41828-1.47124-1.94919
Freiburg
FC Koln		36.0%
37.9%		26.1%
+193
+145
+190
+139
0
0		-1.33382-1.33128-1.34408
Bayern Munich
VfB Stuttgart		65.8%
15.6%		18.5%
+160
+165
+190
+155
1
3		-0.99277-0.92299-1.85579
Borussia Monchengladbach
Werder Bremen		41.0%
34.0%		25.0%
+235
+115
+220
+120
2
2		-1.36924-1.34500-1.38790
Augsburg
Dortmund		12.4%
71.3%		16.3%
+243
+104
+240
+105
1
5		-0.73482-0.73491-0.33869
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/12/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayer 04 Leverkusen (27-0-6, 87 pts)27.40.36.388.6100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Bayern Munich (23-7-3, 72 pts)23.77.13.274.20.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3VfB Stuttgart (22-7-4, 70 pts)22.37.54.371.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4RB Leipzig (19-7-7, 64 pts)19.57.27.365.90.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Dortmund (17-7-9, 60 pts)17.47.39.361.60.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
6Eintracht Frankfurt (11-9-13, 46 pts)11.29.513.346.90.0%0.0%92.2%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-14-7, 43 pts)12.114.77.243.60.0%0.0%7.8%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-13-9, 42 pts)11.413.39.343.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9FC Heidenheim (9-12-12, 39 pts)9.212.512.339.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Werder Bremen (10-14-9, 39 pts)10.314.49.340.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Augsburg (10-14-9, 39 pts)10.314.49.340.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (10-16-7, 37 pts)10.216.47.338.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Borussia Monchengladbach (7-13-13, 34 pts)7.513.313.335.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14VfL Bochum (7-14-12, 33 pts)7.414.312.334.50.0%0.0%0.0%5.8%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (6-13-14, 32 pts)6.413.214.333.60.0%0.0%0.0%6.9%0.0%
16Union Berlin (8-19-6, 30 pts)8.319.46.331.10.0%0.0%0.0%65.6%21.7%
17FC Koln (5-16-12, 27 pts)5.516.212.328.90.0%0.0%0.0%21.7%78.3%
18Darmstadt 98 (3-22-8, 17 pts)3.322.48.318.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.