German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated 1 day ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/18/2024 01:30 PM	Mainz 05 Wolfsburg	30.5% 44.2%	25.3%	+128 +232 +120 +225	3 1	-0.84234-0.83924	-1.18738
05/18/2024 01:30 PM	Augsburg Bayer 04 Leverkusen	10.2% 74.6%	15.2%	+1300 -480 +1150 -545	1 2	-0.20927-0.21949	-0.29320
05/18/2024 01:30 PM	FC Koln FC Heidenheim	40.1% 33.9%	26.0%	+230 +112 +222 +115	1 4	-0.76417-0.79452	-1.08276
05/18/2024 01:30 PM	Freiburg Union Berlin	30.5% 43.3%	26.2%	+336 -111 +300 -108	1 2	-0.65473-0.69067	-0.83667
05/18/2024 01:30 PM	VfL Bochum Werder Bremen	22.4% 55.5%	22.1%	+231 +115 +226 +115	1 4	-0.79206-0.80122	-0.58841
05/18/2024 01:30 PM	Darmstadt 98 Dortmund	9.4% 77.0%	13.6%	+1750 -755 +1600 -870	0 4	-0.15200-0.15983	-0.26183
05/18/2024 01:30 PM	Bayern Munich Hoffenheim	63.9% 17.1%	19.0%	-108 +269 -113 +255	2 4	-1.31323-1.30970	-1.76539
05/18/2024 01:30 PM	Borussia Monchengladbach VfB Stuttgart	33.5% 41.7%	24.8%	+1000 -428 +1000 -450	0 4	-0.24423-0.24483	-0.87568
05/18/2024 01:30 PM	RB Leipzig Eintracht Frankfurt	42.6% 32.6%	24.8%	+207 +128 +190 +130	2 2	-1.39107-1.36301	-1.39493
05/12/2024 05:30 PM	Bayer 04 Leverkusen VfL Bochum	60.2% 19.1%	20.7%	-129 +372 -135 +351	5 0	-0.58709-0.59363	-0.50771
05/12/2024 03:30 PM	Wolfsburg Bayern Munich	5.6% 83.9%	10.5%	+520 -199 +550 -215	0 2	-0.43094-0.39999	-0.17527
05/12/2024 01:30 PM	Hoffenheim Darmstadt 98	40.7% 34.3%	25.0%	-175 +405 -160 +370	6 0	-0.48388-0.52347	-0.89934
05/11/2024 04:30 PM	Dortmund Mainz 05	39.4% 35.3%	25.3%	+275 -106 +265 +115	0 3	-0.68082-0.74830	-1.04112
05/11/2024 01:30 PM	Werder Bremen RB Leipzig	9.4% 76.4%	14.2%	+645 -247 +660 -290	1 1	-1.75446-1.81149	-1.95059
05/11/2024 01:30 PM	Union Berlin FC Koln	31.4% 42.9%	25.7%	+183 +162 +170 +170	2 3	-0.99190-1.03609	-0.84700
05/11/2024 01:30 PM	FC Heidenheim Freiburg	10.5% 73.4%	16.1%	+355 -133 +351 -135	1 1	-1.45423-1.43146	-1.82455

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/12/24

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win League	Make Champions League	Make Europa League	Relegation Playoff	Relegation
1	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (27-0-6, 87 pts)	27.4	0.3	6.3	88.6	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Bayern Munich (23-7-3, 72 pts)	23.7	7.1	3.2	74.2	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	VfB Stuttgart (22-7-4, 70 pts)	22.3	7.5	4.3	71.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	RB Leipzig (19-7-7, 64 pts)	19.5	7.2	7.3	65.9	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Dortmund (17-7-9, 60 pts)	17.4	7.3	9.3	61.6	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Eintracht Frankfurt (11-9-13, 46 pts)	11.2	9.5	13.3	46.9	0.0%	0.0%	92.2%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Hoffenheim (12-14-7, 43 pts)	12.1	14.7	7.2	43.6	0.0%	0.0%	7.8%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Freiburg (11-13-9, 42 pts)	11.4	13.3	9.3	43.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	FC Heidenheim (9-12-12, 39 pts)	9.2	12.5	12.3	39.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Werder Bremen (10-14-9, 39 pts)	10.3	14.4	9.3	40.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Augsburg (10-14-9, 39 pts)	10.3	14.4	9.3	40.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Wolfsburg (10-16-7, 37 pts)	10.2	16.4	7.3	38.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Borussia Monchengladbach (7-13-13, 34 pts)	7.5	13.3	13.3	35.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	VfL Bochum (7-14-12, 33 pts)	7.4	14.3	12.3	34.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.8%	0.0%
15	Mainz 05 (6-13-14, 32 pts)	6.4	13.2	14.3	33.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.9%	0.0%
16	Union Berlin (8-19-6, 30 pts)	8.3	19.4	6.3	31.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	65.6%	21.7%
17	FC Koln (5-16-12, 27 pts)	5.5	16.2	12.3	28.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	21.7%	78.3%
18	Darmstadt 98 (3-22-8, 17 pts)	3.3	22.4	8.3	18.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.