France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 21 hr ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/12/2024 07:00 PM	Lens Rennes	24.9% 49.9%	25.2%	+214 +128 +215 +125	1 1	-1.31923-1.28884	-1.37999
05/12/2024 07:00 PM	Lorient Marseille	10.6% 72.3%	17.1%	+550 -200 +530 -215	1 3	-0.43604-0.43034	-0.32435
05/10/2024 07:00 PM	Le Havre Nice	14.1% 64.1%	21.8%	+548 -174 +505 -180	0 1	-0.48115-0.48977	-0.44399
05/10/2024 07:00 PM	Reims Brest	23.9% 50.3%	25.8%	+460 -162 +435 -160	1 1	-1.47495-1.43729	-1.35631
05/06/2024 07:00 PM	Lyon Lille	20.7% 56.1%	23.2%	+247 +109 +240 +105	4 3	-1.27222-1.27465	-1.57697
05/04/2024 07:00 PM	Nantes Brest	26.7% 47.4%	25.9%	+450 -142 +425 -145	0 0	-1.35642-1.35957	-1.35100
05/04/2024 05:00 PM	Rennes Metz	49.7% 24.6%	25.7%	-101 +295 -105 +285	3 2	-0.71592-0.71756	-0.69969
05/04/2024 03:00 PM	Clermont Foot Monaco	9.5% 74.6%	15.9%	+719 -310 +710 -325	1 4	-0.31345-0.31653	-0.29259
05/04/2024 01:00 PM	Strasbourg Le Havre	39.6% 31.2%	29.2%	+205 +161 +195 +155	1 3	-0.97328-0.98355	-1.16315
05/03/2024 07:00 PM	Lorient Lens	15.7% 63.7%	20.6%	+600 -223 +570 -220	0 2	-0.39940-0.42089	-0.45039
05/03/2024 05:00 PM	Montpellier Toulouse	32.9% 40.8%	26.3%	+258 +105 +250 +100	2 1	-1.29861-1.30383	-1.11069
04/28/2024 07:00 PM	Lens Marseille	18.6% 59.0%	22.4%	+226 +125 +215 +125	1 2	-0.83949-0.86140	-0.52726
04/28/2024 05:00 PM	Monaco Lyon	31.7% 42.7%	25.6%	+186 +140 +175 +130	2 3	-0.89104-0.88020	-0.85043
04/28/2024 03:05 PM	Brest Rennes	20.0% 57.2%	22.8%	+261 +120 +235 +125	5 4	-1.31334-1.25836	-1.61099
04/28/2024 01:00 PM	Toulouse Lorient	28.3% 46.0%	25.8%	+201 +150 +170 +160	2 1	-1.11893-1.04120	-1.26397
04/28/2024 01:00 PM	Reims Clermont Foot	35.3% 34.3%	30.3%	+110 +249 +110 +235	1 4	-1.27751-1.26008	-1.06921

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	9	6-1-2 (0.778)	0	-0.88643
Sportsbooks	9	6-1-2 (0.778)	0	-0.86874
DRatings	9	6-1-2 (0.778)	0	-0.83645	0.04998 0.03229

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/13/24

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Paris Saint-Germain (20-2-10, 70 pts)	21.6	2.2	10.3	74.9	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Monaco (19-7-7, 64 pts)	19.4	7.3	7.3	65.4	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Lille (16-7-10, 58 pts)	16.4	7.3	10.3	59.5	0.0%	63.8%	36.2%	0.0%
4	Brest (16-7-10, 58 pts)	16.5	7.3	10.3	59.6	0.0%	34.8%	65.2%	0.0%
5	Nice (15-8-9, 54 pts)	15.4	9.1	9.5	55.7	0.0%	1.4%	98.6%	0.0%
6	Lens (14-11-8, 50 pts)	14.3	11.4	8.3	51.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Lyon (15-13-5, 50 pts)	15.4	13.4	5.3	51.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Marseille (12-9-11, 47 pts)	13.2	9.3	11.5	51.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Rennes (12-11-10, 46 pts)	12.5	11.2	10.3	47.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Toulouse (11-12-10, 43 pts)	11.3	12.5	10.3	44.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Montpellier (10-12-11, 41 pts)	10.4	12.3	11.3	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Reims (11-13-8, 41 pts)	11.4	14.1	8.5	42.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Strasbourg (10-14-9, 39 pts)	10.4	14.4	9.3	40.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Nantes (9-18-6, 33 pts)	9.3	18.4	6.3	34.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Le Havre (7-15-11, 32 pts)	7.1	15.7	11.2	32.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Metz (8-20-5, 29 pts)	8.1	20.8	5.1	29.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	Lorient (6-19-8, 26 pts)	6.3	19.4	8.3	27.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
18	Clermont Foot (5-18-10, 25 pts)	5.4	18.3	10.3	26.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.