Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Genoa
Roma		12.4%
69.2%		18.4%
+670
-209
+615
-205
0
1		-0.40983-0.43094-0.36868
Lazio
Inter		11.6%
70.9%		17.4%
+490
-177
+475
-180
1
1		-1.53605-1.52468-1.74583
Frosinone
Monza		16.9%
60.6%		22.4%
+135
+223
+131
+220
1
0		-0.87110-0.86398-1.77496
Empoli
Udinese		20.4%
56.3%		23.2%
+350
-101
+340
-105
1
1		-1.23193-1.22905-1.45925
Cagliari
Sassuolo		17.8%
61.2%		21.0%
+202
+150
+185
+150
2
0		-1.13445-1.08806-1.72642
Milan
Torino		36.6%
35.1%		28.2%
+212
+158
+205
+150
1
3		-0.97204-0.96063-1.04563
Napoli
Fiorentina		26.9%
47.7%		25.4%
+265
+111
+246
+120
2
2		-1.30023-1.29189-1.37054
Monza
Fiorentina		17.2%
61.0%		21.8%
+560
-195
+520
-190
1
2		-0.43897-0.46817-0.49492
Roma
Atalanta		21.4%
56.5%		22.1%
+315
-108
+312
-115
1
2		-0.67188-0.66699-0.57050
Sassuolo
Genoa		26.9%
48.4%		24.7%
+221
+133
+205
+135
1
2		-0.87275-0.89678-0.72493
Torino
Hellas Verona		37.1%
35.0%		27.9%
+167
+225
+176
+195
2
1		-1.00534-1.04928-0.99166
Empoli
Lazio		13.2%
68.3%		18.5%
+475
-149
+515
-165
0
2		-0.53866-0.51148-0.38100
Cagliari
Milan		6.9%
79.4%		13.7%
+443
-162
+450
-169
1
5		-0.50514-0.50400-0.23102
Bologna
Napoli		17.9%
60.8%		21.3%
+328
-104
+321
-105
2
0		-1.47880-1.47631-1.72076
Inter
Frosinone		71.6%
10.7%		17.7%
-122
+350
-128
+345
5
0		-0.61899-0.60690-0.33354
Napoli
Udinese		44.6%
29.1%		26.3%
-105
+315
-102
+290
1
1		-1.36090-1.34144-1.33640
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks52-1-2 (0.600)0-1.03667 
Sportsbooks52-1-2 (0.600)0-1.02734 
DRatings51-2-2 (0.400)0-1.41503
-0.37836
-0.38769

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.