France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 19 hr ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/19/2024 07:00 PM	Nice Lille	15.4% 63.3%	21.4%	+561 -195 +545 -200	2 2	-1.57233-1.52047	-1.54253
05/19/2024 07:00 PM	Strasbourg Lyon	18.6% 59.9%	21.6%	+798 -290 +650 -275	1 2	-0.32183-0.36071	-0.51294
05/19/2024 07:00 PM	Nantes Monaco	17.0% 61.9%	21.1%	+431 -180 +535 -200	0 4	-0.47253-0.42179	-0.48023
05/19/2024 07:00 PM	Rennes Reims	35.0% 35.7%	29.3%	+135 +210 +130 +200	1 2	-1.14961-1.14721	-1.03139
05/19/2024 07:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Metz	80.0% 6.6%	13.3%	-130 +355 -140 +395	2 0	-0.60493-0.56784	-0.22318
05/19/2024 07:00 PM	Brest Toulouse	31.6% 42.0%	26.4%	+133 +200 +125 +245	3 0	-0.87465-0.82679	-1.15280
05/19/2024 07:00 PM	Marseille Le Havre	59.8% 16.9%	23.3%	-131 +360 -135 +340	2 1	-0.60113-0.60475	-0.51483
05/19/2024 07:00 PM	Clermont Foot Lorient	21.2% 54.2%	24.5%	+396 -155 +375 -160	0 5	-0.53541-0.53491	-0.61184
05/19/2024 07:00 PM	Montpellier Lens	22.2% 54.5%	23.3%	+800 -298 +700 -315	2 2	-1.84548-1.83421	-1.45835
05/15/2024 07:00 PM	Marseille Reims	43.6% 28.5%	27.9%	-113 +313 -105 +290	0 1	-1.44253-1.38894	-1.25449
05/15/2024 07:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Nice	69.5% 12.1%	18.4%	+228 +114 +220 +110	2 1	-1.22254-1.21369	-0.36366
05/12/2024 07:00 PM	Lyon Clermont Foot	47.3% 26.8%	25.9%	-159 +397 -170 +425	1 0	-0.52650-0.51395	-0.74902
05/12/2024 07:00 PM	Monaco Montpellier	37.2% 36.3%	26.6%	-135 +323 -135 +300	2 0	-0.58218-0.60475	-0.98940
05/12/2024 07:00 PM	Metz Strasbourg	16.5% 61.7%	21.8%	+248 +114 +225 +115	1 2	-0.79122-0.81482	-0.48319
05/12/2024 07:00 PM	Toulouse Paris Saint-Germain	4.1% 86.5%	9.3%	+650 -260 +610 -275	3 1	-2.04577-2.00999	-3.18230
05/12/2024 07:00 PM	Lille Nantes	38.2% 33.2%	28.6%	-131 +405 -125 +340	2 1	-0.59178-0.63609	-0.96184

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	9	6-1-2 (0.778)	0	-0.88643
Sportsbooks	9	6-1-2 (0.778)	0	-0.86874
DRatings	9	6-1-2 (0.778)	0	-0.83645	0.04998 0.03229

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/13/24

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Paris Saint-Germain (20-2-10, 70 pts)	21.6	2.2	10.3	74.9	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Monaco (19-7-7, 64 pts)	19.4	7.3	7.3	65.4	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Lille (16-7-10, 58 pts)	16.4	7.3	10.3	59.5	0.0%	63.8%	36.2%	0.0%
4	Brest (16-7-10, 58 pts)	16.5	7.3	10.3	59.6	0.0%	34.8%	65.2%	0.0%
5	Nice (15-8-9, 54 pts)	15.4	9.1	9.5	55.7	0.0%	1.4%	98.6%	0.0%
6	Lens (14-11-8, 50 pts)	14.3	11.4	8.3	51.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Lyon (15-13-5, 50 pts)	15.4	13.4	5.3	51.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Marseille (12-9-11, 47 pts)	13.2	9.3	11.5	51.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Rennes (12-11-10, 46 pts)	12.5	11.2	10.3	47.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Toulouse (11-12-10, 43 pts)	11.3	12.5	10.3	44.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Montpellier (10-12-11, 41 pts)	10.4	12.3	11.3	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Reims (11-13-8, 41 pts)	11.4	14.1	8.5	42.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Strasbourg (10-14-9, 39 pts)	10.4	14.4	9.3	40.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Nantes (9-18-6, 33 pts)	9.3	18.4	6.3	34.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Le Havre (7-15-11, 32 pts)	7.1	15.7	11.2	32.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Metz (8-20-5, 29 pts)	8.1	20.8	5.1	29.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	Lorient (6-19-8, 26 pts)	6.3	19.4	8.3	27.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
18	Clermont Foot (5-18-10, 25 pts)	5.4	18.3	10.3	26.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.