MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 13, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Toronto Blue Jays (18-22)
Baltimore Orioles (26-13)
José Berríos
Corbin Burnes
37.3%
62.7%
+156
-166
+155
-160
+1½-137
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+125
3.21
4.54
7.75
o7½-114
u7½-102
o8+100
u7½+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Miami Marlins (11-31)
Detroit Tigers (20-20)
Sixto Sánchez
Matt Manning
39.8%
60.2%
+156
-163
+155
-167
+1½-133
-1½+126
+1½-145
-1½+127
3.63
4.71
8.34
o9+102
u9-115
o8½-120
u9-120
Philadelphia Phillies (28-13)
New York Mets (19-20)
Cristopher Sánchez
Sean Manaea
49.1%
50.9%
-101
-104
-102
-103

-1½+160
+1½-170
4.26
4.35
8.61
o7½+110
u7½-120
o7½+110
u7½-115
Tampa Bay Rays (20-21)
Boston Red Sox (21-19)
Zach Eflin
Kutter Crawford
44.9%
55.1%
+102
-110
+102
-111
+1½-195
-1½+178
+1½-200
-1½+181
4.49
5.03
9.52
o9+110
u8½+101
o8½-115
u8½+100
Chicago Cubs (24-17)
Atlanta Braves (24-13)
Shota Imanaga
Reynaldo López
43.8%
56.2%
+127
-134
+129
-134
+1½-163
-1½+152
+1½-165
-1½+155
3.56
4.22
7.78
o8+100
u8-113
o8+100
u8-110
Pittsburgh Pirates (18-23)
Milwaukee Brewers (24-16)
Mitch Keller
Colin Rea
40.1%
59.9%
+127
-135
+129
-136
+1½-168
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+155
3.49
4.52
8.01
o8½+101
u8½-117
o8-115
u8+100
Washington Nationals (19-20)
Chicago White Sox (12-29)
Trevor Williams
Chris Flexen
57.8%
42.2%
-118
+115
-116
+111
-1½+135
+1½-148
-1½+135
+1½-150
4.94
4.12
9.06
o8½-102
u8½-108
o8½-110
u8½-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cleveland Guardians (25-16)
Texas Rangers (22-20)
Tanner Bibee
Michael Lorenzen
48.4%
51.6%
-103
-104
+101
-103
+1½-205
-1½+180
+1½-200
-1½+184
3.84
4.02
7.86
o9-104
u9-110
o9-110
u9-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Oakland Athletics (19-23)
Houston Astros (15-25)
Ross Stripling
Spencer Arrighetti
36.5%
63.5%
+160
-168
+160
-170
+1½-130
-1½+116
+1½-130
-1½+115
3.81
5.23
9.04
o8½-118
u8½+105
o8½-115
u8½+100
St. Louis Cardinals (16-24)
Los Angeles Angels (15-26)
Matthew Liberatore
José Soriano
50.4%
49.6%
-105
+100
-104
-101

+1½-215
-1½+192
4.31
4.27
8.58
o8½-108
u8½-108
o8½-110
u8½-105
Cincinnati Reds (17-23)
Arizona Diamondbacks (19-22)
Graham Ashcraft
Jordan Montgomery
42.1%
57.9%
+147
-150
+143
-152
+1½-150
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+140
3.92
4.75
8.67
o8½-115
u8½+102
o8½-120
u8½+105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Colorado Rockies (12-28)
San Diego Padres (22-21)
Dakota Hudson
Randy Vásquez
35.1%
64.9%
+196
-208
+190
-210
+1½-105
-1½-103
+1½-113
-1½-105
3.07
4.62
7.69
o8-105
u8-105
o8-105
u8-115
Kansas City Royals (25-17)
Seattle Mariners (22-19)
Brady Singer
George Kirby
43.5%
56.5%
+136
-143
+138
-148
+1½-167
-1½+155
+1½-165
-1½+155
3.09
3.80
6.89
o7+100
u7-108
o7-110
u7-110
Los Angeles Dodgers (27-15)
San Francisco Giants (19-23)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Jordan Hicks
57.9%
42.1%
-179
+174
-175
+165
-1½-113
+1½+100
-1½-110
+1½+100
4.30
3.46
7.76
o7½-115
u7½+100
o7½-115
u7½+105
All Bet Values Active
Games for May 12, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Angels
51.7%
48.3%
-169
+160
-170
+157
-1½-105
+1½-109
-1½+105
+1½-107
3
9
-0.96829-0.96247-0.72701
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
57.0%
43.0%
-137
+130
-137
+135
-1½+110
+1½-122
-1½+110
+1½-120
5
0
-0.56084-0.55166-0.56191
Texas Rangers
Colorado Rockies
59.7%
40.3%
-140
+131
-140
+135
-1½+100
+1½-111
-1½+105
+1½-110
3
8
-0.85334-0.86325-0.90812
Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants
53.2%
46.8%
-137
+133
-142
+138
-1½+116
+1½-131
-1½+115
+1½-127
1
5
-0.85308-0.87402-0.75822
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
35.9%
64.1%
+165
-170
+163
-166
+1½-129
-1½+120
+1½-130
-1½+120
3
5
-0.46959-0.47580-0.44513
Cleveland Guardians
Chicago White Sox
60.6%
39.4%
-170
+164
-170
+160
-1½-109
+1½-106
-1½-105
+1½-110
1
3
-0.97915-0.96964-0.93158
Houston Astros
Detroit Tigers
49.8%
50.2%
+142
-152
+142
-148
+1½-159
-1½+145
+1½-150
-1½+145
2
8
-0.52182-0.52616-0.68818
Washington Nationals
Boston Red Sox
39.0%
61.0%
+148
-150
+145
-152
+1½-153
-1½+137
+1½-153
-1½+135
2
4
-0.51405-0.51683-0.49456
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
54.9%
45.1%
+102
-104
+102
-103
-1½+160
+1½-172
-1½+160
+1½-170
2
7
-0.67857-0.68092-0.79596
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
60.4%
39.6%
-116
+106
-114
+117
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+146
+1½-150
8
3
-0.64392-0.62330-0.50461
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
56.8%
43.2%
-147
+141
-150
+144
-1½+115
+1½-128
-1½+116
+1½-125
4
1
-0.52899-0.52062-0.56648
Arizona Diamondbacks
Baltimore Orioles
37.5%
62.5%
+138
-146
+146
-142
+1½-145
-1½+132
+1½-140
-1½+140
4
5
-0.53529-0.52636-0.46957
Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
54.5%
45.5%
-114
+106
-112
+105
-1½+156
+1½-170
-1½+155
+1½-167
9
10
-0.74068-0.73382-0.78706
Minnesota Twins
Toronto Blue Jays
43.7%
56.3%
+131
-138
+131
-140
+1½-163
-1½+147
+1½-160
-1½+148
8
10
-0.55767-0.55511-0.57487
Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants
40.7%
59.3%
+130
-136
+133
-135
+1½-163
-1½+160
+1½-170
-1½+160
4
2
-0.84390-0.84952-0.89961
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
40.0%
60.0%
+144
-147
+141
-149
+1½-158
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+146
1
8
-0.52393-0.52675-0.51099
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0 (1.000)0-0.68363 
Sportsbooks11-0 (1.000)0-0.68116 
DRatings10-1 (0.000)0-0.77701
-0.09338
-0.09585

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.