UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for May 18, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Carlston Harris
Khaos Williams 		44.6%
55.4%
+105
-123
+105
-108
Volatility Bet Value Active
Lerone Murphy
Edson Barboza 		55.0%
45.0%
-159
+145
-150
+136
Fights for May 17, 2024
Fights for Jun 1, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Viacheslav Borshchev
Chase Hooper		53.7%
46.3%
-110
-105
-110
+100
Loss
Win		-0.70441-0.71668-0.77096
Esteban Ribovics
Terrance McKinney		55.2%
44.8%
-145
+126
-140
+135
Win
Loss		-0.55827-0.54782-0.59410
Tecia Pennington
Tabatha Ricci		48.0%
52.0%
+125
-140
+135
-140
Loss
Win		-0.56639-0.54782-0.65395
Trey Waters
Billy Goff		48.1%
51.9%
-157
+145
-150
+140
Win
Loss		-0.51171-0.52736-0.73291
Jake Hadley
Charles Johnson		45.5%
54.5%
+100
-110
+105
-115
Loss
Win		-0.67015-0.64814-0.60719
Veronica Macedo
JJ Aldrich		51.2%
48.8%
-105
+100
-110
+110
Win
Loss		-0.68116-0.64663-0.66845
Muin Gafurov
Alexandre Pantoja		38.7%
61.3%
+167
-165
+170
-180
Loss
Win		-0.47095-0.45497-0.48937
Jose Aldo
Jonathan Martinez		53.9%
46.1%
+150
+135
+152
-160
Win
Loss		-0.72456-0.93639-0.61878
Vitor Petrino
Anthony Smith		75.7%
24.3%
-400
+395
-425
+375
Loss
Win		-1.60142-1.57799-1.41297
Ihor Potieria
Michel Pereira		23.1%
76.9%
+415
-450
+390
-475
Loss
Win		-0.21295-0.22077-0.26305
Caio Borralho
Paul Craig		73.8%
26.2%
-500
+450
-500
+450
Win
Loss		-0.19737-0.19737-0.30319
Joanderson Brito
Jack Shore		51.7%
48.3%
-185
+170
-185
+180
Win
Loss		-0.45144-0.43838-0.65877
Iasmin Lucindo
Karolina Kowalkiewicz		65.0%
35.0%
-365
+295
-400
+330
Win
Loss		-0.27954-0.25519-0.43080
Myktybek Orolbai
Elves Brenner		65.6%
34.4%
-250
+230
-230
+225
Win
Loss		-0.35364-0.36566-0.42178
Drakkar Klose
Joaquim Silva		56.3%
43.7%
-185
+180
-200
+190
Win
Loss		-0.43838-0.41690-0.57419
Jamie Mullarkey
Mauricio Ruffy		46.1%
53.9%
+225
-240
+210
-220
Loss
Win		-0.36179-0.38472-0.61772
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1310-3 (0.769)0-0.56415 
Sportsbooks1310-3 (0.769)0-0.55758 
DRatings139-4 (0.692)0-0.58158
-0.01743
-0.02400

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.