NFL Football Ratings

Below are listed the current NFL football computer ratings as computed by the Donchess Inference Index. The ratings will be updated on every Tuesday morning to account for the Monday Night Football game during the season. Injuries of all important players will be accounted for and more information on how these NFL ratings are computed can be found on the Methodology page.

DII Rating– This is a NFL ratings system that is a combination of the Standard Rating and the Aegis Rating. The Aegis Rating is weighted more highly in the beginning of the season whereas the Standard Rating is weighted more highly at the end of the season. This is the final rating that is used to rank the teams.

Standard Rating– Looks at date, game outcome and score differential only. Record is the most important factor in this rating system as getting the win or loss has the most weight.

Aegis Rating– Heavily weighs score as a factor and it uses more historical data. Style points play a factor in this rating system. This is system is a much better predictor of future game outcomes.

Vegas Rating– This is our newest rating that only takes into account what the Vegas line on each game is. More recent games are weighed the most heavily, but outcome and score differential are no factor at all. This rating system is also a very good predictor of future outcomes.

Please see our NFL predictions page to see our projections for each game and outright season predictions.

Donchess Inference Index – NFL Football Rankings

Updated 12/11/2018.

Rank Team Rec Rating Chg SOS (Rank) Standard (Rank) Aegis (Rank) Vegas (Rank)
1
Kansas City
11-2
1.1024
1
-0.00 (17)
1.517 (1)
1.165 (2)
0.485 (3)
2
LA Rams
11-2
1.0540
1
0.108 (5)
1.440 (2)
1.033 (3)
0.559 (1)
3
New Orleans
11-2
0.9643
0
-0.09 (28)
1.029 (3)
1.292 (1)
0.548 (2)
4
LA Chargers
10-3
0.6832
0
-0.07 (25)
0.973 (4)
0.653 (6)
0.325 (5)
5
New England
9-4
0.5474
0
-0.03 (19)
0.593 (5)
0.647 (7)
0.386 (4)
6
Chicago
9-4
0.5230
4
-0.12 (31)
0.556 (6)
0.755 (4)
0.246 (8)
7
Seattle
8-5
0.4875
1
0.042 (10)
0.536 (7)
0.701 (5)
0.208 (9)
8
Houston
9-4
0.4115
1
-0.07 (23)
0.494 (8)
0.549 (8)
0.162 (10)
9
Pittsburgh
7-5-1
0.3463
3
0.011 (16)
0.320 (9)
0.462 (10)
0.264 (6)
10
Baltimore
7-6
0.3378
1
0.023 (13)
0.293 (10)
0.482 (9)
0.252 (7)
11
Dallas
8-5
0.1868
1
-0.04 (20)
0.252 (11)
0.245 (11)
0.041 (13)
12
Denver
6-7
0.0944
1
0.174 (3)
0.158 (13)
0.089 (14)
0.014 (16)
13
Tennessee
7-6
0.0911
0
0.028 (12)
0.177 (12)
0.104 (13)
-0.03 (18)
14
Indianapolis
7-6
0.0647
2
-0.17 (32)
0.062 (14)
0.137 (12)
-0.00 (17)
15
Minnesota
6-6-1
-0.015
1
0.011 (15)
-0.12 (16)
0.024 (15)
0.089 (11)
16
Carolina
6-7
-0.106
1
-0.09 (29)
-0.21 (18)
-0.09 (16)
0.031 (15)
17
Philadelphia
6-7
-0.127
0
-0.04 (21)
-0.23 (19)
-0.15 (17)
0.044 (12)
18
Cleveland
5-7-1
-0.153
0
0.114 (4)
-0.11 (15)
-0.19 (20)
-0.15 (23)
19
Green Bay
5-7-1
-0.227
5
-0.08 (27)
-0.45 (25)
-0.18 (18)
0.034 (14)
20
NY Giants
5-8
-0.255
5
-0.07 (24)
-0.38 (22)
-0.19 (19)
-0.13 (21)
21
Detroit
5-8
-0.296
5
0.035 (11)
-0.39 (23)
-0.31 (21)
-0.15 (22)
22
Cincinnati
5-8
-0.303
0
0.201 (2)
-0.27 (20)
-0.44 (24)
-0.19 (25)
23
Miami
7-6
-0.309
4
-0.08 (26)
-0.14 (17)
-0.51 (25)
-0.31 (28)
24
Tampa Bay
5-8
-0.310
4
0.012 (14)
-0.37 (21)
-0.35 (22)
-0.17 (24)
25
Jacksonville
4-9
-0.348
4
0.106 (6)
-0.50 (26)
-0.38 (23)
-0.11 (20)
26
Washington
6-7
-0.406
7
-0.06 (22)
-0.43 (24)
-0.52 (26)
-0.24 (26)
27
Atlanta
4-9
-0.435
4
0.069 (7)
-0.58 (28)
-0.57 (27)
-0.09 (19)
28
NY Jets
4-9
-0.562
1
-0.09 (30)
-0.63 (29)
-0.67 (28)
-0.35 (29)
29
Buffalo
4-9
-0.580
1
0.048 (9)
-0.51 (27)
-0.79 (30)
-0.45 (31)
30
San Francisco
3-10
-0.744
1
-0.01 (18)
-1.04 (32)
-0.78 (29)
-0.30 (27)
31
Oakland
3-10
-0.755
1
0.211 (1)
-0.78 (30)
-1.02 (31)
-0.44 (30)
32
Arizona
3-10
-0.894
2
0.057 (8)
-1.03 (31)
-1.10 (32)
-0.49 (32)