NFL Football Predictions

The NFL computer predictions that are listed below are based on a combination of factors. Unlike some of our other prediction systems, our ratings system for the NFL does account for all significant injuries. While home field advantage is a major factor, we do not account for specific weather in our projections. A full list of variables and non-variables that go into our equation may further be explained in our disclaimer.

Note that we are an information site, not a touting service and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Below, we list the NFL money line odds from Bovada, 5Dimes and BetOnline. Below, you will find information on probabilities for each team to win, predicted score, total score and more. Toward the bottom of this page, one can find information on season projections. This will be updated every week as the NFL season moves along.

Week 1 NFL Score Predictions

Time Matchup Teams Lines – Updated 2/1 @ 2:14 pm Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Points
Game analysis not available yet

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This Week’s Picks and Game Analysis

Below are a few advanced metrics on the games played this week. If there is an orange check mark in the “More Info” section of the game summary, then there is at least one bet in the game that we would recommend.

Game Analysis not yet available for 2019-2020 games.

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Recent NFL Game Prediction Results

Date Teams DRatings Odds to Win1 Final Score Sportsbook Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
2/3 New England -132 0.447 13 -0.60379 -0.8052
LA Rams +112 0.553 3

Above are our results from each game last week between NFL opponents. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.

NFL Season Prediction Results

Games from Yesterday – 2/3
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 1 1 0 0 1 -0.60379
DRatings 1 0 1 0 0 -0.8052
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 1 1 0 0 1 -0.60379
DRatings 1 0 1 0 0 -0.8052
Last Month
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 7 5 2 0 0.714 -0.56289
DRatings 7 4 3 0 0.571 -0.61036
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 267 170 92 5 0.646 -0.61532
DRatings 267 168 96 3 0.635 -0.62268

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against GTBets. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks (we used GTBets, but could have used anyone). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, a tie occurs in the game, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this creiteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.

NFL Results vs. Spread

Last Week (Playoffs): Straight Up: 4-7, Against The Spread: 3-6
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 167-98 (63.0%), Against The Spread: 130-127 (50.6%)
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 183-84 (68.5%), Against The Spread: 144-115 (55.6%)
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 175-90 (66.0%), Against The Spread: 117-145 (44.7%)
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 173-94 (64.8%), Against The Spread: 136-123 (52.5%)
2014-2015 Season: Straight Up: 173-92 (65.2%), Against The Spread: 135-125 (51.9%)
2013-2014 Season: Straight Up: 168-96 (63.6%), Against The Spread: 108-116 (48.2%)
2012-2013 Season: Straight Up: 59-31 (65.6%), Against The Spread: 46-35 (56.8%)

The results for The Prediction Tracker may be different than the results shown in our Log Loss. The Prediction Tracker takes the first projections it finds and does not include any updates that we may make to the projection as the week progresses. A full history of our NFL picks against the spread can be found at ThePredictionTracker. Our results are based upon the midweek line for each game. There is only partial results from the 2012-2013 season as we started late in the campaign.

2018-2019 NFL Football Futures

Below are the computer simulated results based on 1,000 simulations of the rest of the NFL season. One will find expected win total for all the NFL teams, the probability of winning their division, the probability of winning their conference and the probability of winning the Super Bowl. These odds will change and be updated as the season progresses.

NFL Teams Expected Win Total and Odds to Win Division

AFC EastWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
Buffalo61006. Odds
Miami7907. Odds
NY Jets41204. Odds
New England115011.05.00.0100.0%No Odds

AFC NorthWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
Baltimore106010.06.00.0100.0%No Odds
Cincinnati61006. Odds
Cleveland7817. Odds
Pittsburgh9619. Odds

AFC SouthWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
Houston115011.05.00.0100.0%No Odds
Indianapolis106010. Odds
Jacksonville51105. Odds
Tennessee9709. Odds

AFC WestWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
Denver61006. Odds
Kansas City124012.04.00.0100.0%No Odds
LA Chargers124012. Odds
Oakland41204. Odds

NFC EastWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
Dallas106010.06.00.0100.0%No Odds
NY Giants51105. Odds
Philadelphia9709. Odds
Washington7907. Odds

NFC NorthWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
Chicago124012.04.00.0100.0%No Odds
Detroit61006. Odds
Green Bay6916. Odds
Minnesota8718. Odds

NFC SouthWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
Atlanta7907. Odds
Carolina7907. Odds
New Orleans133013.03.00.0100.0%No Odds
Tampa Bay51105. Odds

NFC WestWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
Arizona31303. Odds
LA Rams133013.03.00.0100.0%No Odds
San Francisco41204. Odds
Seattle106010. Odds

The table above shows projected wins, losses, and chances to win the division and is updated on a weekly basis.

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NFL Teams Probability to Make Playoffs, Win Conference, and Win Super Bowl

AFCTeamPlayoff %ML PlayoffsConf Win %ML Conf WinSuper Bowl Win %ML on Winning SB
AFC EastBuffalo0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC EastMiami0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC EastNY Jets0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC EastNew England100.0%No Odds100.0%No Odds44.7%+114
AFC NorthBaltimore100.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC NorthCincinnati0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC NorthCleveland0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC NorthPittsburgh0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC SouthHouston100.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC SouthIndianapolis100.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC SouthJacksonville0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC SouthTennessee0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC WestDenver0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC WestKansas City100.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC WestLA Chargers100.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC WestOakland0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds

NFCTeamPlayoff %ML PlayoffsConf Win %ML Conf WinSuper Bowl Win %ML on Winning SB
NFC EastDallas100.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC EastNY Giants0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC EastPhiladelphia100.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC EastWashington0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC NorthChicago100.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC NorthDetroit0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC NorthGreen Bay0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC NorthMinnesota0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC SouthAtlanta0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC SouthCarolina0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC SouthNew Orleans100.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC SouthTampa Bay0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC WestArizona0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC WestLA Rams100.0%No Odds100.0%No Odds55.3%-134
NFC WestSan Francisco0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC WestSeattle100.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds

The table above shows the simulated projections for every team to make the playoffs, win their conference and win the Super Bowl. These simulations follow all of the correct NFL playoff rules.

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NFL Win Total Projections Through the Season

TeamPreseasonWeek 5Week 7Week 9Week 11Week 13Week 15Week 17Difference
NY Jets5.
New England11.49.711.412.311.211.611.210.8-0.6
Kansas City8.711.412.613.213.012.913.311.93.2
LA Chargers9.
NY Giants6.
Green Bay9.
New Orleans10.09.710.912.413.513.813.213.83.8
Tampa Bay6.
LA Rams9.612.314.013.414.014.013.612.83.2
San Francisco7.

This table shows our projection of each NFL team’s win total over time. We will update these values in the preseason and then once every two weeks during the season. Note that the “Difference” column represents the difference between their current projected win total and our projection from the preseason.