NFL Football Predictions


The NFL computer predictions that are listed below are based on a combination of factors. Unlike some of our other prediction systems, our ratings system for the NFL does account for all significant injuries. While home field advantage is a major factor, we do not account for specific weather in our projections. A full list of variables and non-variables that go into our equation may further be explained in our disclaimer.

Note that we are an information site, not a touting service and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Below, we list the NFL money line odds from Bovada, 5Dimes and BetOnline. Below, you will find information on probabilities for each team to win, predicted score, total score and more. Toward the bottom of this page, one can find information on season projections. This will be updated every week as the NFL season moves along.

Week 7 NFL Score Predictions

Time Matchup Teams Lines – Updated 10/17 @ 6:12 pm Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Points
10/18 Denver at Arizona Denver
-130
-135
-120
48.3%
21.36
43.35
Arizona
+110
+115
+110
51.7%
21.99
10/21 Tennessee vs LA Chargers Tennessee
+235
+240
+230
31.1%
19.48
44.27
LA Chargers
-280
-280
-270
68.9%
24.78
10/21 New England at Chicago New England
-160
-170
-167
49.3%
22.60
45.43
Chicago
+140
+150
+147
50.7%
22.83
10/21 Buffalo at Indianapolis Buffalo
+275
+270
+275
32.9%
20.19
45.02
Indianapolis
-330
-340
-335
67.1%
24.83
10/21 Houston at Jacksonville Houston
+195
+190
+190
30.4%
18.65
43.26
Jacksonville
-225
-230
-230
69.6%
24.60
10/21 Cincinnati at Kansas City Cincinnati
+220
+225
+220
28.2%
18.32
43.53
Kansas City
-260
-265
-260
71.8%
25.20
10/21 Detroit at Miami Detroit
No Odds
No Odds
-145
47.2%
21.72
44.60
Miami
No Odds
No Odds
+125
52.8%
22.87
10/21 Minnesota at NY Jets Minnesota
-175
-180
-175
52.2%
21.48
42.00
NY Jets
+155
+160
+155
47.8%
20.51
10/21 Carolina at Philadelphia Carolina
+200
+190
+185
30.8%
20.89
47.10
Philadelphia
-240
-230
-225
69.2%
26.21
10/21 Cleveland at Tampa Bay Cleveland
+140
+145
+145
22%
17.27
44.11
Tampa Bay
-160
-165
-165
78%
26.84
10/21 New Orleans at Baltimore New Orleans
+119
+115
+120
32.3%
21.80
48.41
Baltimore
-139
-135
-140
67.7%
26.61
10/21 Dallas at Washington Dallas
+105
+105
+110
49.3%
22.56
45.34
Washington
-125
-125
-130
50.7%
22.78
10/21 LA Rams at San Francisco LA Rams
-475
-500
-465
82.5%
28.50
43.39
San Francisco
+400
+350
+370
17.5%
14.89
10/22 NY Giants at Atlanta NY Giants
+210
+215
+210
23.9%
19.35
46.73
Atlanta
-250
-255
-250
76.1%
27.37

Bovada NFL
Bet NFL Football at Bovada - Our top-rated Sportsbook: Join Bovada
See our detailed review of Bovada here: Bovada Sportsbook Review

This Week’s Picks and Game Analysis

Below are a few advanced metrics on the games played this week. If there is an orange check mark in the “More Info” section of the game summary, then there is at least one bet in the game that we would recommend.

Denver Broncos vs. Arizona Cardinals Game Analysis

Date: 10/18 Time: 8:20 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Denver Broncos 2-4 27 -3.06 20 25.67 Matchup and Bet Value
Arizona Cardinals 1-5 30 -3.58 13.67 23.17

Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers Game Analysis

Date: 10/21 Time: 9:30 am ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Tennessee Titans 3-3 19 3.67 14.5 17.83 Matchup and Bet Value
Los Angeles Chargers 4-2 5 -0.1 29.17 24

New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears Game Analysis

Date: 10/21 Time: 1:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
New England Patriots 4-2 7 -0.59 29.33 24.67 Matchup and Bet Value
Chicago Bears 3-2 9 -0.44 27.8 19.2

Cleveland Browns vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Analysis

Date: 10/21 Time: 1:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Cleveland Browns 2-3-1 24 -0.92 21.33 25.17 Matchup and Bet Value
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-3 17 2.29 28.2 34.6

Detroit Lions vs. Miami Dolphins Game Analysis

Date: 10/21 Time: 1:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Detroit Lions 2-3 20 0.33 25 27.4 Matchup and Bet Value
Miami Dolphins 4-2 15 3.62 21.67 24.17

Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Game Analysis

Date: 10/21 Time: 1:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Carolina Panthers 3-2 14 -0.32 24.2 22.8 Matchup and Bet Value
Philadelphia Eagles 3-3 10 -0.85 22.83 19.5

Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts Game Analysis

Date: 10/21 Time: 1:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Buffalo Bills 2-4 26 7.38 12.67 23 Matchup and Bet Value
Indianapolis Colts 1-5 29 -2.9 25.33 30

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Analysis

Date: 10/21 Time: 8:20 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Cincinnati Bengals 4-2 8 1.78 29 26.33 Matchup and Bet Value
Kansas City Chiefs 5-1 1 3.93 35.83 28.67

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets Game Analysis

Date: 10/21 Time: 1:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Minnesota Vikings 3-2-1 12 0.21 23.33 24.67 Matchup and Bet Value
New York Jets 3-3 21 1.31 27.5 23.17

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Game Analysis

Date: 10/21 Time: 1:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Houston Texans 3-3 25 -1.28 22.5 22.83 Matchup and Bet Value
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-3 13 -0.81 18.17 21

New Orleans Saints vs. Baltimore Ravens Game Analysis

Date: 10/21 Time: 4:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
New Orleans Saints 4-1 6 1.3 36 28 Matchup and Bet Value
Baltimore Ravens 4-2 3 0.89 25.5 12.83

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins Game Analysis

Date: 10/21 Time: 4:25 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Dallas Cowboys 3-3 16 -0.1 20.5 17.17 Matchup and Bet Value
Washington Redskins 3-2 23 1.23 21.2 20.8

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers Game Analysis

Date: 10/21 Time: 4:25 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Los Angeles Rams 6-0 2 1.76 32.67 19.67 Matchup and Bet Value
San Francisco 49ers 1-5 28 -4.62 24.67 29.83

New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons Game Analysis

Date: 10/22 Time: 8:15 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
New York Giants 1-5 31 -2.78 19.5 27 Matchup and Bet Value
Atlanta Falcons 2-4 18 -2.94 27.83 32


Bet NFL Football at the BetOnline Sportsbook: Join BetOnline
See our detailed review of BetOnline here: BetOnline Sportsbook Review

Recent NFL Game Prediction Results

Date Teams DRatings Odds to Win1 Final Score Sportsbook Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
10/11 Philadelphia -125 0.653 34 -0.63252 -0.42618
NY Giants +104 0.347 13
10/14 Arizona +362 0.208 17 -0.23523 -0.23319
Minnesota -444 0.792 27
10/14 LA Chargers -105 0.531 38 -0.71505 -0.63299
Cleveland -115 0.469 14
10/14 Chicago -312 0.522 28 -1.31132 -0.73814
Miami +258 0.478 31
10/14 Carolina -119 0.512 17 -0.73821 -0.71744
Washington +101 0.488 23
10/14 Indianapolis +123 0.305 34 -0.56771 -0.36384
NY Jets -142 0.695 42
10/14 Pittsburgh +105 0.483 28 -0.76029 -0.72774
Cincinnati -125 0.517 21
10/14 Tampa Bay +137 0.32 29 -0.52215 -0.38566
Atlanta -160 0.68 34
10/14 Seattle -152 0.674 27 -0.5374 -0.39453
Oakland +133 0.326 3
10/14 Buffalo +378 0.317 13 -0.22566 -0.38126
Houston -476 0.683 20
10/14 LA Rams -323 0.785 23 -0.31325 -0.24207
Denver +256 0.215 20
10/14 Jacksonville -167 0.544 7 -0.93655 -0.78526
Dallas +148 0.456 40
10/14 Baltimore -137 0.55 21 -0.58828 -0.59784
Tennessee +116 0.45 0
10/14 Kansas City +167 0.49 40 -0.44705 -0.67334
New England -198 0.51 43
10/15 San Francisco +345 0.247 30 -0.24488 -0.28369
Green Bay -426 0.753 33

Above are our results from each game last week between NFL opponents. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.

NFL Season Prediction Results

2018
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 93 57 32 4 0.634 -0.63625
DRatings 93 59 32 2 0.645 -0.62382
Games from 10/15
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 1 1 0 0 1 -0.24488
DRatings 1 1 0 0 1 -0.28369
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 15 10 5 0 0.667 -0.58504
DRatings 15 11 4 0 0.733 -0.50554
Last Two Weeks
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 30 20 10 0 0.667 -0.58858
DRatings 30 22 8 0 0.733 -0.54461

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against GTBets. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks (we used GTBets, but could have used anyone). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, a tie occurs in the game, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this creiteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.

NFL Results vs. Spread

Last Week (Week 6): Straight Up: 11-4 (73.3%), Against The Spread: 10-4 (71.4%)
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 59-32 (64.8%), Against The Spread: 48-40 (54.5%)
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 183-84 (68.5%), Against The Spread: 144-115 (55.6%)
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 175-90 (66.0%), Against The Spread: 117-145 (44.7%)
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 173-94 (64.8%), Against The Spread: 136-123 (52.5%)
2014-2015 Season: Straight Up: 173-92 (65.2%), Against The Spread: 135-125 (51.9%)
2013-2014 Season: Straight Up: 168-96 (63.6%), Against The Spread: 108-116 (48.2%)
2012-2013 Season: Straight Up: 59-31 (65.6%), Against The Spread: 46-35 (56.8%)

The results for The Prediction Tracker may be different than the results shown in our Log Loss. The Prediction Tracker takes the first projections it finds and does not include any updates that we may make to the projection as the week progresses. A full history of our NFL picks against the spread can be found at ThePredictionTracker. Our results are based upon the midweek line for each game. There is only partial results from the 2012-2013 season as we started late in the campaign.

2018-2019 NFL Football Futures

Below are the computer simulated results based on 1,000 simulations of the rest of the NFL season. One will find expected win total for all the NFL teams, the probability of winning their division, the probability of winning their conference and the probability of winning the Super Bowl. These odds will change and be updated as the season progresses.

Last simulation was done on 10/9/2018.

NFL Teams Expected Win Total and Odds to Win Division

DivisionTeamWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
AFC EastBuffalo2405.410.60.00.8%+12400
AFC EastMiami4208.77.30.020.5%+388
AFC EastNY Jets3307.58.50.09.3%+975
AFC EastNew England42010.55.50.069.4%-227
AFC NorthBaltimore42010.45.60.056.4%-129
AFC NorthCincinnati4209.16.90.023.8%+320
AFC NorthCleveland2316.58.51.00.4%+24900
AFC NorthPittsburgh32110.05.01.019.4%+415
AFC SouthHouston3307.98.10.026.8%+273
AFC SouthIndianapolis1505.410.60.02.1%+4662
AFC SouthJacksonville3309.07.00.050.6%-102
AFC SouthTennessee3307.78.30.020.5%+388
AFC WestDenver2405.910.10.00.4%+24900
AFC WestKansas City51012.04.00.079.5%-388
AFC WestLA Chargers42010.06.00.020.1%+398
AFC WestOakland1504.211.80.00.0%No Odds
NFC EastDallas3308.27.80.029.8%+236
NFC EastNY Giants1504.911.10.00.3%+33233
NFC EastPhiladelphia3308.77.30.041.7%+140
NFC EastWashington3208.08.00.028.2%+255
NFC NorthChicago3209.36.70.048.2%+107
NFC NorthDetroit2307.28.80.011.7%+755
NFC NorthGreen Bay3218.56.51.011.4%+777
NFC NorthMinnesota3219.55.51.028.7%+248
NFC SouthAtlanta2407.28.80.07.0%+1329
NFC SouthCarolina3208.17.90.020.7%+383
NFC SouthNew Orleans41010.06.00.061.3%-158
NFC SouthTampa Bay2307.38.70.011.0%+809
NFC WestArizona1504.411.60.00.0%No Odds
NFC WestLA Rams60013.52.50.097.8%-4445
NFC WestSan Francisco1504.611.40.00.0%No Odds
NFC WestSeattle3308.57.50.02.2%+4445

The table above shows projected wins, losses, and chances to win the division and is updated on a weekly basis.

Bet at 5dimes
Bet NFL Football at the 5Dimes Sportsbook: Join 5Dimes
See our detailed review of 5Dimes here: 5Dimes Sportsbook Review

NFL Teams Probability to Make Playoffs, Win Conference, and Win Super Bowl

DivisionTeamPlayoff %ML PlayoffsConf Win %ML Conf WinSuper Bowl Win %ML on Winning SB
AFC EastBuffalo1.1%+124000.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC EastMiami39.0%+3882.4%+40670.5%+19900
AFC EastNY Jets17.9%+9750.9%+110110.4%+24900
AFC EastNew England81.7%-22717.5%+4717.5%+1233
AFC NorthBaltimore78.0%-12916.6%+5028.1%+1135
AFC NorthCincinnati49.9%+3205.9%+15952.1%+4662
AFC NorthCleveland1.5%+249000.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC NorthPittsburgh44.5%+4156.4%+14632.7%+3604
AFC SouthHouston32.0%+2732.0%+49000.6%+16567
AFC SouthIndianapolis2.5%+46620.3%+332330.1%+99900
AFC SouthJacksonville57.2%-1026.6%+14152.3%+4248
AFC SouthTennessee26.8%+3881.4%+70430.7%+14186
AFC WestDenver4.0%+249000.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC WestKansas City95.5%-38831.3%+21917.0%+488
AFC WestLA Chargers68.4%+3988.7%+10493.6%+2678
AFC WestOakland0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC EastDallas41.3%+2363.0%+32331.2%+8233
NFC EastNY Giants1.0%+332330.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC EastPhiladelphia54.4%+1405.5%+17182.4%+4067
NFC EastWashington39.2%+2551.3%+75920.3%+33233
NFC NorthChicago64.9%+1078.0%+11503.7%+2603
NFC NorthDetroit22.3%+7550.9%+110110.2%+49900
NFC NorthGreen Bay24.4%+7771.1%+89910.7%+14186
NFC NorthMinnesota47.5%+2484.7%+20281.6%+6150
NFC SouthAtlanta20.2%+13292.2%+44451.0%+9900
NFC SouthCarolina37.7%+3833.0%+32331.3%+7592
NFC SouthNew Orleans76.8%-15815.6%+5417.7%+1199
NFC SouthTampa Bay25.1%+8091.1%+89910.2%+49900
NFC WestArizona0.3%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC WestLA Rams99.9%-444551.3%-10533.0%+203
NFC WestSan Francisco0.6%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC WestSeattle44.4%+44452.3%+42481.1%+8991

The table above shows the simulated projections for every team to make the playoffs, win their conference and win the Super Bowl. These simulations follow all of the correct NFL playoff rules.


Bet NFL Football at Youwager: Join Youwager
See our detailed review of Youwager here: Youwager Sportsbook Review

NFL Win Total Projections Through the Season

TeamPreseasonWeek 5Week 7Week 9Week 11Week 13Week 15Week 17Difference
Buffalo6.76.5-0.2
Miami6.78.51.8
NY Jets5.86.10.3
New England11.49.7-1.7
Baltimore8.69.91.3
Cincinnati6.49.02.6
Cleveland5.16.11.0
Pittsburgh10.18.9-1.2
Houston7.36.3-1.0
Indianapolis6.56.3-0.2
Jacksonville9.010.11.1
Tennessee7.78.91.2
Denver6.97.00.1
Kansas City8.711.42.7
LA Chargers9.29.1-0.1
Oakland7.96.0-1.9
Dallas8.47.7-0.7
NY Giants6.75.7-1.0
Philadelphia10.39.4-0.9
Washington7.07.30.3
Chicago6.78.82.1
Detroit7.86.7-1.1
Green Bay9.18.7-0.4
Minnesota10.09.1-0.9
Atlanta9.58.2-1.3
Carolina8.79.10.4
New Orleans10.09.7-0.3
Tampa Bay6.37.81.5
Arizona6.23.9-2.3
LA Rams9.612.32.7
San Francisco7.85.8-2.0
Seattle7.98.00.1

This table shows our projection of each NFL team’s win total over time. We will update these values in the preseason and then once every two weeks during the season. Note that the “Difference” column represents the difference between their current projected win total and our projection from the preseason.