NFL Football Predictions


The NFL computer predictions that are listed below are based on a combination of factors. Unlike some of our other prediction systems, our ratings system for the NFL does account for all significant injuries. While home field advantage is a major factor, we do not account for specific weather in our projections. A full list of variables and non-variables that go into our equation may further be explained in our disclaimer.

Note that we are an information site, not a touting service and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only. Below, we list the NFL money line odds from Bovada, 5Dimes and BetOnline. Below, you will find information on probabilities for each team to win, predicted score, total score and more. Toward the bottom of this page, one can find information on season projections. This will be updated every week as the NFL season moves along.

Week 15 NFL Score Predictions

Time Matchup Teams Lines – Updated 12/13 @ 9:07 am Odds to Win Score Prediction Total Points
12/13 LA Chargers at Kansas City LA Chargers
+161
+165
+170
30.4%
19.82
45.57
Kansas City
-181
-190
-185
69.6%
25.74
12/15 Cleveland at Denver Cleveland
+130
+135
+145
30.4%
18.46
42.95
Denver
-150
-155
-155
69.6%
24.49
12/15 Houston at NY Jets Houston
-260
-275
-250
67.1%
23.73
42.73
NY Jets
+220
+225
+230
32.9%
18.99
12/16 Arizona at Atlanta Arizona
+355
+325
+350
25.5%
19.21
45.85
Atlanta
-425
-450
-440
74.5%
26.64
12/16 Tampa Bay at Baltimore Tampa Bay
+295
+280
+290
27.3%
18.97
45.02
Baltimore
-355
-360
-350
72.7%
26.05
12/16 Detroit at Buffalo Detroit
+120
+120
+120
50.7%
21.83
43.34
Buffalo
-140
-140
-140
49.3%
21.50
12/16 Green Bay at Chicago Green Bay
+210
+210
+215
30.3%
19.55
45.44
Chicago
-250
-250
-255
69.7%
25.88
12/16 Oakland at Cincinnati Oakland
+123
+120
+125
31.7%
19.81
44.69
Cincinnati
-143
-140
-145
68.3%
24.87
12/16 Dallas at Indianapolis Dallas
+130
+125
+130
46.5%
22.18
45.77
Indianapolis
-150
-145
-150
53.5%
23.59
12/16 Washington at Jacksonville Washington
+270
+260
+255
30.4%
19.52
44.78
Jacksonville
-320
-320
-310
69.6%
25.26
12/16 Miami at Minnesota Miami
+240
+250
+245
26.8%
17.86
42.91
Minnesota
-285
-300
-290
73.2%
25.05
12/16 Tennessee at NY Giants Tennessee
+133
+120
+125
49.8%
22.13
44.32
NY Giants
-153
-140
-145
50.2%
22.19
12/16 Seattle at San Francisco Seattle
-205
-230
-220
65.6%
23.71
43.19
San Francisco
+175
+190
+180
34.4%
19.48
12/16 New England at Pittsburgh New England
-133
-135
-135
49%
23.57
47.48
Pittsburgh
+113
+115
+115
51%
23.91
12/16 Philadelphia at LA Rams Philadelphia
+445
+400
+475
21.4%
18.04
46.09
LA Rams
-550
-600
-650
78.6%
28.05
12/17 New Orleans at Carolina New Orleans
-250
-270
-255
68.3%
27.64
50.14
Carolina
+210
+220
+215
31.7%
22.50

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This Week’s Picks and Game Analysis

Below are a few advanced metrics on the games played this week. If there is an orange check mark in the “More Info” section of the game summary, then there is at least one bet in the game that we would recommend.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Analysis

Date: 12/13 Time: 8:20 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Los Angeles Chargers 10-3 4 2.2 28.15 20.77 Matchup and Bet Value
Kansas City Chiefs 11-2 1 4.28 36.23 27

Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Game Analysis

Date: 12/15 Time: 4:30 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Houston Texans 9-4 8 2.05 24.85 19.92 Matchup and Bet Value
New York Jets 4-9 28 -2.89 20.77 25.38

Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Game Analysis

Date: 12/15 Time: 8:20 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Cleveland Browns 5-7-1 18 -2.67 22.46 25.54 Matchup and Bet Value
Denver Broncos 6-7 12 -0.53 22.31 21.69

Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings Game Analysis

Date: 12/16 Time: 1:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Miami Dolphins 7-6 23 4.28 21.38 25.62 Matchup and Bet Value
Minnesota Vikings 6-6-1 15 -2.16 21.69 22.38

Oakland Raiders vs. Cincinnati Bengals Game Analysis

Date: 12/16 Time: 1:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Oakland Raiders 3-10 31 -3.3 18.77 29.85 Matchup and Bet Value
Cincinnati Bengals 5-8 22 -3.71 23.62 30.54

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Baltimore Ravens Game Analysis

Date: 12/16 Time: 1:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-8 24 0.23 25.54 29.46 Matchup and Bet Value
Baltimore Ravens 7-6 10 -1.3 24.69 18.54

Dallas Cowboys vs. Indianapolis Colts Game Analysis

Date: 12/16 Time: 1:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Dallas Cowboys 8-5 11 6.16 21.23 18.92 Matchup and Bet Value
Indianapolis Colts 7-6 14 0.42 26.85 23.08

Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills Game Analysis

Date: 12/16 Time: 1:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Detroit Lions 5-8 21 -1.57 20.85 24.54 Matchup and Bet Value
Buffalo Bills 4-9 29 6.33 15.46 24.62

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Game Analysis

Date: 12/16 Time: 1:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Green Bay Packers 5-7-1 19 -5.52 24.23 23.62 Matchup and Bet Value
Chicago Bears 9-4 6 0.92 27.62 19

Tennessee Titans vs. New York Giants Game Analysis

Date: 12/16 Time: 1:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Tennessee Titans 7-6 13 5.44 19.31 19.54 Matchup and Bet Value
New York Giants 5-8 20 -1.46 23.62 25.46

Washington Redskins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Game Analysis

Date: 12/16 Time: 1:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Washington Redskins 6-7 26 -0.27 19.15 22.85 Matchup and Bet Value
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-9 25 -5.01 16.31 21

Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons Game Analysis

Date: 12/16 Time: 1:00 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Arizona Cardinals 3-10 32 -1.76 13.69 25.15 Matchup and Bet Value
Atlanta Falcons 4-9 27 -6.39 24.31 28.23

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Game Analysis

Date: 12/16 Time: 4:05 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Seattle Seahawks 8-5 7 1.43 26.15 20.46 Matchup and Bet Value
San Francisco 49ers 3-10 30 -7.14 21.15 26.92

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Game Analysis

Date: 12/16 Time: 4:25 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
New England Patriots 9-4 5 -0.65 28 22.54 Matchup and Bet Value
Pittsburgh Steelers 7-5-1 9 -0.14 28.23 23.54

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams Game Analysis

Date: 12/16 Time: 8:20 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
Philadelphia Eagles 6-7 17 -3.57 21.62 22.69 Matchup and Bet Value
Los Angeles Rams 11-2 2 1.3 32.69 24.08

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Game Analysis

Date: 12/17 Time: 8:15 pm ET

Team Record Team Rank Units W/L Points PG Opp Points PG More Info
New Orleans Saints 11-2 3 4.45 34.38 21.77 Matchup and Bet Value
Carolina Panthers 6-7 16 -1.83 24.92 25.54


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Recent NFL Game Prediction Results

Date Teams DRatings Odds to Win1 Final Score Sportsbook Log Loss DRatings Log Loss
12/6 Jacksonville +202 0.427 9 -0.38311 -0.55687
Tennessee -244 0.573 30
12/9 Baltimore +238 0.219 24 -0.33496 -0.24718
Kansas City -290 0.781 27
12/9 Indianapolis +175 0.298 24 -1.04982 -1.21066
Houston -208 0.702 21
12/9 Carolina -110 0.5 20 -0.69315 -0.69315
Cleveland -110 0.5 26
12/9 Atlanta +168 0.356 20 -0.44693 -0.44006
Green Bay -196 0.644 34
12/9 New Orleans -435 0.784 28 -0.245 -0.24335
Tampa Bay +343 0.216 14
12/9 NY Jets +180 0.444 27 -1.07046 -0.81193
Buffalo -217 0.556 23
12/9 New England -417 0.79 33 -1.53247 -1.56065
Miami +350 0.21 34
12/9 LA Rams -153 0.653 6 -0.8742 -1.05843
Chicago +131 0.347 15
12/9 NY Giants -165 0.462 40 -0.50902 -0.77219
Washington +142 0.538 16
12/9 Denver -163 0.647 14 -0.90626 -1.04129
San Francisco +138 0.353 20
12/9 Cincinnati +925 0.127 21 -0.1 -0.13582
LA Chargers -1282 0.873 26
12/9 Detroit -135 0.517 17 -0.59313 -0.65971
Arizona +115 0.483 3
12/9 Philadelphia +159 0.356 23 -0.47113 -0.44006
Dallas -179 0.644 29
12/9 Pittsburgh -556 0.825 21 -1.68775 -1.74297
Oakland +420 0.175 24
12/10 Minnesota +144 0.305 7 -0.50395 -0.36384
Seattle -167 0.695 21

Above are our results from each game last week between NFL opponents. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
1 The values used are based on the last available projection.

NFL Season Prediction Results

2018
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 208 130 73 5 0.637 -0.62344
DRatings 208 133 72 3 0.647 -0.62007
Games from 12/10
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 1 1 0 0 1 -0.50395
DRatings 1 1 0 0 1 -0.36384
Last Week
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 16 9 6 1 0.594 -0.71258
DRatings 16 8 7 1 0.531 -0.74864
Last Two Weeks
Games Wins Losses No Pick Win Pct. Log Loss
GTBets 32 18 13 1 0.578 -0.70169
DRatings 32 19 12 1 0.609 -0.69309

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against GTBets. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks (we used GTBets, but could have used anyone). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, a tie occurs in the game, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this creiteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.

NFL Results vs. Spread

Last Week (Week 14): Straight Up: 8-8 (50.0%), Against The Spread: 6-10 (37.5%)
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 133-73 (65.6%), Against The Spread: 102-99 (50.7%)
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 183-84 (68.5%), Against The Spread: 144-115 (55.6%)
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 175-90 (66.0%), Against The Spread: 117-145 (44.7%)
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 173-94 (64.8%), Against The Spread: 136-123 (52.5%)
2014-2015 Season: Straight Up: 173-92 (65.2%), Against The Spread: 135-125 (51.9%)
2013-2014 Season: Straight Up: 168-96 (63.6%), Against The Spread: 108-116 (48.2%)
2012-2013 Season: Straight Up: 59-31 (65.6%), Against The Spread: 46-35 (56.8%)

The results for The Prediction Tracker may be different than the results shown in our Log Loss. The Prediction Tracker takes the first projections it finds and does not include any updates that we may make to the projection as the week progresses. A full history of our NFL picks against the spread can be found at ThePredictionTracker. Our results are based upon the midweek line for each game. There is only partial results from the 2012-2013 season as we started late in the campaign.

2018-2019 NFL Football Futures

Below are the computer simulated results based on 1,000 simulations of the rest of the NFL season. One will find expected win total for all the NFL teams, the probability of winning their division, the probability of winning their conference and the probability of winning the Super Bowl. These odds will change and be updated as the season progresses.

NFL Teams Expected Win Total and Odds to Win Division

AFC EastWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
Buffalo4905.110.90.00.0%No Odds
Miami7608.17.90.00.7%+14186
NY Jets4904.811.20.00.0%No Odds
New England94011.24.80.099.3%-14186

AFC NorthWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
Baltimore7608.87.20.049.8%+101
Cincinnati5806.29.80.00.4%+24900
Cleveland5717.47.61.01.1%+8991
Pittsburgh7519.85.21.048.7%+105

AFC SouthWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
Houston94010.95.10.092.5%-1233
Indianapolis7608.67.40.03.7%+2603
Jacksonville4905.510.50.00.0%No Odds
Tennessee7608.77.30.03.8%+2532

AFC WestWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
Denver6707.78.30.00.0%No Odds
Kansas City112013.32.70.088.3%-755
LA Chargers103011.54.50.011.7%+755
Oakland31003.612.40.00.0%No Odds

NFC EastWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
Dallas8509.76.30.094.6%-1752
NY Giants5806.39.70.00.2%+49900
Philadelphia6707.28.80.02.5%+3900
Washington6707.28.80.02.7%+3604

NFC NorthWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
Chicago94010.85.20.098.6%-7043
Detroit5806.39.70.00.0%No Odds
Green Bay5717.67.41.00.0%No Odds
Minnesota6618.96.11.01.4%+7043

NFC SouthWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
Atlanta4905.610.40.00.0%No Odds
Carolina6707.18.90.00.0%No Odds
New Orleans112013.22.80.0100.0%No Odds
Tampa Bay5806.19.90.00.0%No Odds

NFC WestWinsLossesTiesProj WinsProj LossesProj TiesTo Win DivisionML on Winning Div
Arizona31003.512.50.00.0%No Odds
LA Rams112013.62.40.099.9%-99900
San Francisco31003.812.20.00.0%No Odds
Seattle8509.86.20.00.1%+99900

The table above shows projected wins, losses, and chances to win the division and is updated on a weekly basis.

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NFL Teams Probability to Make Playoffs, Win Conference, and Win Super Bowl

AFCTeamPlayoff %ML PlayoffsConf Win %ML Conf WinSuper Bowl Win %ML on Winning SB
AFC EastBuffalo0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC EastMiami12.8%+141860.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC EastNY Jets0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC EastNew England99.6%-1418628.9%+24610.5%+852
AFC NorthBaltimore55.5%+1012.7%+36040.9%+11011
AFC NorthCincinnati0.4%+249000.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC NorthCleveland1.3%+89910.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC NorthPittsburgh53.8%+1055.0%+19002.5%+3900
AFC SouthHouston98.4%-123317.4%+4756.4%+1463
AFC SouthIndianapolis33.9%+26030.5%+199000.1%+99900
AFC SouthJacksonville0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC SouthTennessee37.8%+25320.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC WestDenver6.6%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
AFC WestKansas City100.0%-75540.2%+14923.0%+335
AFC WestLA Chargers99.9%+7555.3%+17872.1%+4662
AFC WestOakland0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds

NFCTeamPlayoff %ML PlayoffsConf Win %ML Conf WinSuper Bowl Win %ML on Winning SB
NFC EastDallas97.3%-17522.9%+33481.8%+5456
NFC EastNY Giants3.3%+499000.1%+999000.1%+99900
NFC EastPhiladelphia17.5%+39000.3%+332330.3%+33233
NFC EastWashington19.0%+36040.3%+332330.2%+49900
NFC NorthChicago99.9%-70435.7%+16542.0%+4900
NFC NorthDetroit3.4%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC NorthGreen Bay5.0%No Odds0.2%+499000.2%+49900
NFC NorthMinnesota43.1%+70431.9%+51631.1%+8991
NFC SouthAtlanta0.1%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC SouthCarolina11.2%No Odds0.3%+332330.2%+49900
NFC SouthNew Orleans100.0%No Odds41.5%+14123.5%+326
NFC SouthTampa Bay2.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC WestArizona0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC WestLA Rams100.0%-9990044.3%+12623.5%+326
NFC WestSan Francisco0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds0.0%No Odds
NFC WestSeattle98.2%+999002.5%+39001.6%+6150

The table above shows the simulated projections for every team to make the playoffs, win their conference and win the Super Bowl. These simulations follow all of the correct NFL playoff rules.


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NFL Win Total Projections Through the Season

TeamPreseasonWeek 5Week 7Week 9Week 11Week 13Week 15Week 17Difference
Buffalo6.76.54.84.15.36.15.1-1.4
Miami6.78.57.87.67.26.98.10.5
NY Jets5.86.17.05.84.74.54.8-1.1
New England11.49.711.412.311.211.611.2-0.2
Baltimore8.69.99.68.58.78.68.80.1
Cincinnati6.49.08.79.18.26.86.21.8
Cleveland5.16.16.25.36.17.17.41.0
Pittsburgh10.18.99.910.912.011.19.81.9
Houston7.36.39.110.211.011.410.93.7
Indianapolis6.56.36.27.28.18.48.61.6
Jacksonville9.010.18.07.36.25.55.5-2.8
Tennessee7.78.97.27.58.38.08.70.6
Denver6.97.06.86.26.97.97.70.0
Kansas City8.711.412.613.213.012.913.34.3
LA Chargers9.29.110.110.610.210.711.51.0
Oakland7.96.04.22.72.93.03.6-5.0
Dallas8.47.77.87.28.28.69.7-0.2
NY Giants6.75.74.83.95.25.06.3-1.5
Philadelphia10.39.47.68.17.07.37.2-3.3
Washington7.07.38.58.98.78.07.21.7
Chicago6.78.88.49.610.510.910.83.8
Detroit7.86.78.06.96.66.16.3-1.2
Green Bay9.18.78.58.58.58.17.6-0.6
Minnesota10.09.110.09.59.39.68.9-0.7
Atlanta9.58.27.17.66.56.55.6-3.0
Carolina8.79.19.010.19.08.17.10.3
New Orleans10.09.710.912.413.513.813.23.5
Tampa Bay6.37.87.56.75.45.96.1-0.9
Arizona6.23.93.63.83.33.13.5-2.9
LA Rams9.612.314.013.414.014.013.64.4
San Francisco7.85.84.44.13.93.43.8-3.9
Seattle7.98.08.48.68.59.29.80.6

This table shows our projection of each NFL team’s win total over time. We will update these values in the preseason and then once every two weeks during the season. Note that the “Difference” column represents the difference between their current projected win total and our projection from the preseason.