NFL Football Predictions

Week 1 NFL Score Predictions

Time	Matchup	Teams	Lines – Updated 2/1 @ 2:14 pm			Odds to Win	Score Prediction	Total Points
Game analysis not available yet

This Week’s Picks and Game Analysis

Below are a few advanced metrics on the games played this week. If there is an orange check mark in the “More Info” section of the game summary, then there is at least one bet in the game that we would recommend.

Game Analysis not yet available for 2019-2020 games.

Recent NFL Game Prediction Results

Date	Teams		DRatings Odds to Win1	Final Score	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
2/3	New England	-132	0.447	13	-0.60379	-0.8052
	LA Rams	+112	0.553	3

Above are our results from each game last week between NFL opponents. To find the Log Loss of the sportsbook pick, we translate the final money line into relative odds to win and then do the calculation.
¹ The values used are based on the last available projection.

NFL Season Prediction Results

Games from Yesterday – 2/3

Last Week

Last Month

2018

The table listed above shows how our projections have done against GTBets. The idea is to test our probabilities of victory for each team against the sportsbooks (we used GTBets, but could have used anyone). Wins, losses, and win percentage are self-explanatory. “No pick” occurs when the odds are even for both sides at the sportsbook, a tie occurs in the game, or when we project the game at 50% on each side. Attempting to explain Log Loss is a little complicated, but in a nutshell, the lower number is better. For more information in the examination of this creiteria, see: Making Sense of Log Loss.

NFL Results vs. Spread

Last Week (Playoffs): Straight Up: 4-7, Against The Spread: 3-6
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 167-98 (63.0%), Against The Spread: 130-127 (50.6%)
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 183-84 (68.5%), Against The Spread: 144-115 (55.6%)
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 175-90 (66.0%), Against The Spread: 117-145 (44.7%)
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 173-94 (64.8%), Against The Spread: 136-123 (52.5%)
2014-2015 Season: Straight Up: 173-92 (65.2%), Against The Spread: 135-125 (51.9%)
2013-2014 Season: Straight Up: 168-96 (63.6%), Against The Spread: 108-116 (48.2%)
2012-2013 Season: Straight Up: 59-31 (65.6%), Against The Spread: 46-35 (56.8%)

The results for The Prediction Tracker may be different than the results shown in our Log Loss. The Prediction Tracker takes the first projections it finds and does not include any updates that we may make to the projection as the week progresses. A full history of our NFL picks against the spread can be found at ThePredictionTracker. Our results are based upon the midweek line for each game. There is only partial results from the 2012-2013 season as we started late in the campaign.

2018-2019 NFL Football Futures

Below are the computer simulated results based on 1,000 simulations of the rest of the NFL season. One will find expected win total for all the NFL teams, the probability of winning their division, the probability of winning their conference and the probability of winning the Super Bowl. These odds will change and be updated as the season progresses.

NFL Teams Expected Win Total and Odds to Win Division

The table above shows projected wins, losses, and chances to win the division and is updated on a weekly basis.

NFL Teams Probability to Make Playoffs, Win Conference, and Win Super Bowl

The table above shows the simulated projections for every team to make the playoffs, win their conference and win the Super Bowl. These simulations follow all of the correct NFL playoff rules.

NFL Win Total Projections Through the Season

This table shows our projection of each NFL team’s win total over time. We will update these values in the preseason and then once every two weeks during the season. Note that the “Difference” column represents the difference between their current projected win total and our projection from the preseason.