UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for September 25, 2021

TimeFightersWinBest
Line

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Brian Ortega (15-1)
Alexander Volkanovski (22-1)
29.4%
70.6%
+135
-147
+135
-155
Lauren Murphy (14-4)
Valentina Shevchenko (20-3)
18.4%
81.6%
+850
-1240
+950
-1500
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (11-2)
Curtis Blaydes (14-3)
25.8%
74.2%
+265
-310
+250
-285
Cynthia Calvillo (9-2)
Jessica Andrade (21-9)
34.3%
65.7%
+240
-275
+235
-250
Merab Dvalishvili (13-4)
Marlon Moraes (23-8)
58.4%
41.6%
-230
+200
-225
+195
Mayra Bueno Silva (7-1)
Manon Fiorot (7-1)
36.5%
63.5%
+200
-225
+220
-250
Jalin Turner (10-5)
Uros Medic (7-0)
46.1%
53.9%
-105
-110
-100
-110
Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-5)
Chris Daukaus (11-3)
35.8%
64.2%
+165
-185
+160
-170
Nasrat Haqparast (13-3)
Dan Hooker (20-10)
38.0%
62.0%
+147
-155
+150
-165
Roxanne Modafferi (25-19)
Taila Santos (17-1)
20.8%
79.2%
+310
-360
+305
-345
Jonathan Pearce (10-4)
Omar Morales (11-1)
33.4%
66.6%
+135
-155
+130
-145
Fights for Sep 24, 2021

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
Line
Final
Result
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Ryan Spann
Anthony Smith
39.3%
60.7%
+130
-145
+135
-145
Loss
Win
-0.55080-0.54173-0.49942
Ariane Lipski
Mandy Bohm
53.5%
46.5%
-125
+120
-125
+120
Win
Loss
-0.59784-0.59784-0.62487
Christos Giagos
Arman Tsarukyan
23.0%
77.0%
+620
-800
+575
-780
Loss
Win
-0.14519-0.15456-0.26112
Nate Maness
Tony Gravely
35.4%
64.6%
+175
-190
+175
-180
Win
Loss
-1.03022-1.01807-1.03936
Antonio Arroyo
Joaquin Buckley
30.8%
69.2%
+160
-180
+160
-165
Loss
Win
-0.46893-0.48102-0.36853
Mike Rodriguez
Tafon Nchukwi
45.4%
54.6%
+105
-125
+110
-125
Loss
Win
-0.63023-0.61904-0.60464
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks129-2 (0.750)0-0.54920 
Sportsbooks129-2 (0.750)0-0.54531 
DRatings129-2 (0.750)0-0.60150
-0.05230
-0.05619

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.