UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for April 5, 2025

Previous columnNext column
TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lerone Murphy
Josh Emmett 		65.6%
34.4%
-320
+270
-320
+290
Joanderson Brito
Patrick Sabatini 		67.0%
33.0%
-230
+200
-240
+220
ChangHo Lee
Cortavious Romious 		59.0%
41.0%
-133
+115
-130
+115
Martin Buday
Kennedy Nzechukwu 		30.3%
69.7%
+285
-365
+285
-340
Gerald Meerschaert
Brad Tavares 		33.0%
67.0%
+175
-190
+190
-190
Volatility Bet Value Active
Robert Valentin Frey
Torrez Finney 		35.3%
64.7%
+240
-275
+250
-280
Luis Gurule
Ode Osbourne 		65.5%
34.5%
-230
+210
-240
+220
Daniel Santos
Davey Grant 		61.8%
38.2%
-140
+127
-135
+130
Dione Barbosa
Diana Belbita 		73.5%
26.5%
-1100
+775
-900
+625
Daniel Frunza
Rhys McKee 		57.2%
42.8%
-150
+130
-140
+125
Pedro Falcao
Victor Henry 		29.5%
70.5%
+180
-201
+195
-215
Talita Alencar
Vanessa Demopoulos 		49.8%
50.2%
-110
-108
-110
+100
Istela Nunes
Loma Lookboonmee 		28.0%
72.0%
+525
-700
+550
-750
Fights for Apr 4, 2025
Fights for Apr 12, 2025

Completed Fights

Previous columnNext column
TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Muin Gafurov
Brandon Moreno		30.2%
69.8%
+222
-245
+240
-240
Loss
Win		-0.36278-0.34831-0.35987
Drew Dober
Manuel Torres		49.8%
50.2%
+115
-125
+110
-120
Loss
Win		-0.60825-0.62755-0.68961
CJ Vergara
Edgar Chairez		32.8%
67.2%
+230
-270
+240
-265
Loss
Win		-0.34732-0.34011-0.39800
Vince Morales
Raul Rosas Jr.		17.8%
82.2%
+425
-500
+400
-450
Loss
Win		-0.20586-0.21869-0.19565
Saimon Oliveira
David Martinez		30.0%
70.0%
+550
-700
+550
-750
Loss
Win		-0.16198-0.16073-0.35736
Kevin Borjas
Ronaldo Rodriguez		44.6%
55.4%
+175
-200
+180
-190
Win
Loss		-1.04146-1.04185-0.80641
Ateba Gautier
Jose Medina		74.8%
25.2%
-450
+390
-450
+375
Win
Loss		-0.22269-0.22897-0.29073
Melquizael Costa
Christian Rodriguez		39.1%
60.9%
+180
-210
+190
-200
Win
Loss		-1.06360-1.07614-0.93958
Julia Polastri
Loopy Godinez		28.5%
71.5%
+180
-210
+180
-200
Loss
Win		-0.42344-0.42898-0.33542
Vinc Pichel
Rafa Garcia		29.9%
70.1%
+305
-320
+280
-300
Loss
Win		-0.28071-0.30075-0.35586
Gabriel Miranda
Jamall Emmers		19.0%
81.0%
+400
-500
+425
-420
Loss
Win		-0.21511-0.21175-0.21110
Austin Hubbard
MarQuel Mederos		37.2%
62.8%
+130
-138
+135
-130
Loss
Win		-0.55953-0.56124-0.46545
Sean Brady
Leon Edwards		52.7%
47.3%
-135
+130
-135
+125
Win
Loss		-0.56352-0.57304-0.63966
Carlos Ulberg
Jan Blachowicz		61.1%
38.9%
-350
+285
-340
+300
Win
Loss		-0.28815-0.28030-0.49325
Kevin Holland
Gunnar Nelson		51.1%
48.9%
+120
-135
+115
-130
Win
Loss		-0.81706-0.79536-0.67080
Alexia Thainara
Molly McCann		57.7%
42.3%
-205
+177
-200
+180
Win
Loss		-0.42991-0.42898-0.55010
Load More Fights

Season Prediction Results

Previous columnNext column
 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks1210-2 (0.833)0-0.45773 
Sportsbooks1210-2 (0.833)0-0.46209 
DRatings1210-2 (0.833)0-0.45042
0.00731
0.01167

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.