UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for March 23, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Justin Tafa
Karl Williams
36.9%
63.1%
+155
-175
+160
-175
AJ Dobson
Edmen Shahbazyan
43.1%
56.9%
+170
-180
+170
-190
Cameron Saaiman
Payton Talbott
48.0%
52.0%
+140
-154
+135
-150
Kurt Holobaugh
Trey Ogden
35.9%
64.1%
+132
-150
+130
-150
Ricardo Ramos
Julian Erosa
58.2%
41.8%
-152
+138
-160
+150
Mohammed Usman
Mick Parkin
46.5%
53.5%
+125
-136
+130
-140
Cody Gibson
Miles Johns
47.9%
52.1%
+125
-140
+130
-145
Youssef Zalal
Billy Quarantillo
31.6%
68.4%
+138
-158
+140
-145
Rose Namajunas
Amanda Ribas
52.2%
47.8%
-260
+225
-210
+230
Volatility Bet Value Active
Fights for Mar 22, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML
Final
Result
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Marcin Tybura
Tai Tuivasa
48.9%
51.1%
+100
-110
-105
+100
Win
Loss
-0.71668-0.68116-0.71509
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Ovince Saint Preux
76.3%
23.7%
-625
+525
-660
+500
Loss
Win
-1.85438-1.82623-1.43801
Isaac Dulgarian
Christian Rodriguez
57.7%
42.3%
-200
+172
-190
+175
Loss
Win
-1.03437-1.03022-0.86012
Macy Chiasson
Pannie Kianzad
59.9%
40.1%
-230
+200
-235
+200
Win
Loss
-0.39087-0.38877-0.51301
Bryan Barberena
Gerald Meerschaert
42.6%
57.4%
+220
-250
+230
-240
Loss
Win
-0.36291-0.35718-0.55492
Natan Levy
Mike Davis
36.8%
63.2%
+380
-455
+375
-450
Loss
Win
-0.22644-0.22897-0.45917
Chelsea Chandler
Josiane Nunes
49.4%
50.6%
+135
-154
+140
-155
Win
Loss
-0.88576-0.89968-0.70623
Ode Osbourne
Jafel Filho
41.1%
58.9%
+155
-175
+152
-160
Loss
Win
-0.48012-0.49765-0.52967
Danny Silva
Josh Culibao
41.6%
58.4%
+185
-210
+180
-180
Win
Loss
-1.07523-1.02963-0.87635
Cory McKenna
Jaqualine Amorim
49.3%
50.7%
-140
+133
-152
+150
Loss
Win
-0.85830-0.91945-0.67842
Mitch Ramirez
Thiago Moises
23.0%
77.0%
+260
-305
+260
-305
Loss
Win
-0.31397-0.31397-0.26166
Chad Anheliger
Charalampos Grigoriou
42.3%
57.7%
+160
-169
+160
-165
Win
Loss
-0.96829-0.96273-0.86012
Marlon Vera
Sean O'Malley
42.4%
57.6%
+245
-265
+240
-250
Loss
Win
-0.33593-0.34485-0.55154
Dustin Poirier
Benoit Saint Denis
44.7%
55.3%
+190
-210
+200
-215
Win
Loss
-1.08672-1.11438-0.80421
Michael Page
Kevin Holland
47.3%
52.7%
+117
-130
+117
-130
Win
Loss
-0.80044-0.80044-0.74807
Jack Della Maddalena
Gilbert Burns
51.7%
48.3%
-145
+135
-155
+140
Win
Loss
-0.54173-0.52206-0.65877
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks125-7 (0.417)0-0.76394 
Sportsbooks126-6 (0.500)0-0.76130 
DRatings126-6 (0.500)0-0.70440
0.05955
0.05691

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.