UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for February 11, 2023

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Alexander Volkanovski
Islam Makhachev
39.0%
61.0%
+325
-360
+320
-370
Josh Emmett
Yair Rodriguez
32.6%
67.4%
+140
-160
+145
-150
Randy Brown
Jack Della Maddalena
53.9%
46.1%
+275
-300
+280
-330
Overall Bet Value Active
Justin Tafa
Parker Porter
60.3%
39.7%
-135
+115
-140
+125
Alonzo Menifield
Jimmy Crute
42.7%
57.3%
+178
-200
+190
-210
Josh Culibao
Melsik Baghdasaryan
39.5%
60.5%
-110
-105
-110
-105
Elise Reed
Loma Lookboonmee
47.6%
52.4%
+235
-270
+240
-278
Modestas Bukauskas
Tyson Pedro
36.9%
63.1%
+202
-237
+210
-235
Fights for Feb 10, 2023
Fights for Feb 12, 2023

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML
Final
Result
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Derrick Lewis
Serghei Spivac
38.2%
61.8%
+240
-265
+255
-275
Loss
Win
-0.34011-0.32507-0.48125
Devin Clark
Da-Un Jung
45.2%
54.8%
+235
-265
+230
-260
Win
Loss
-1.23320-1.21885-0.79385
Blagoy Ivanov
Marcin Tybura
43.0%
57.0%
+135
-145
+130
-135
Loss
Win
-0.54173-0.56352-0.56291
Kyle Nelson
Dooho Choi
43.6%
56.4%
+175
-190
+175
-185
Draw
Draw
-0.73586-0.73454-0.70139
Adam Fugitt
Yusaku Kinoshita
34.6%
65.4%
+280
-335
+285
-340
Win
Loss
-1.36771-1.38003-1.06088
Denis Tiuliulin
Junyong Park
28.1%
71.9%
+181
-189
+192
-195
Loss
Win
-0.43448-0.41746-0.33031
Jesus Aguilar
Tatsuro Taira
22.2%
77.8%
+850
-1250
+850
-1300
Loss
Win
-0.10767-0.10738-0.25082
Glover Teixeira
Jamahal Hill
37.4%
62.6%
+125
-140
+130
-140
Loss
Win
-0.56639-0.55696-0.46799
Deiveson Figueiredo
Brandon Moreno
55.7%
44.3%
+125
-138
+125
-135
Loss
Win
-0.56900-0.57304-0.81331
Neil Magny
Gilbert Burns
21.1%
78.9%
+425
-525
+450
-505
Loss
Win
-0.20438-0.19706-0.23677
Lauren Murphy
Jessica Andrade
30.9%
69.1%
+485
-525
+425
-510
Loss
Win
-0.18523-0.20524-0.37022
Paul Craig
Johnny Walker
36.7%
63.3%
+160
-175
+170
-185
Loss
Win
-0.47276-0.45144-0.45751
Mauricio Rua
Ihor Potieria
37.6%
62.4%
+187
-195
+175
-195
Loss
Win
-0.42338-0.43833-0.47128
Brunno Ferreira
Gregory Rodrigues
24.4%
75.6%
+263
-300
+260
-295
Win
Loss
-1.31438-1.30523-1.41227
Thiago Moises
Melquizael Costa
78.5%
21.5%
-390
+320
-380
+330
Win
Loss
-0.26172-0.25755-0.24206
Mounir Lazzez
Gabriel Bonfim
38.1%
61.9%
+160
-170
+170
-180
Loss
Win
-0.47678-0.45497-0.47892
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks74-2 (0.571)0-0.68011 
Sportsbooks74-2 (0.571)0-0.67812 
DRatings74-2 (0.571)0-0.59734
0.08276
0.08078

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.