UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for April 12, 2025

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TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Diego Lopes
Alexander Volkanovski 		40.0%
60.0%
+120
-140
+125
-140
Paddy Pimblett
Michael Chandler 		50.6%
49.4%
-160
+145
-155
+145
Jean Silva
Bryce Mitchell 		65.3%
34.7%
-260
+250
-260
+240
Volatility Bet Value Active
Dominick Reyes
Nikita Krylov 		40.0%
60.0%
+175
-195
+175
-200
Patricio Pitbull
Yair Rodriguez 		38.2%
61.8%
+165
-190
+175
-200
Sean Woodson
Dan Ige 		47.6%
52.4%
-165
+145
-160
+145
Virna Jandiroba
Yan Xiaonan 		64.0%
36.0%
-135
+115
-150
+130
Chase Hooper
Jim Miller 		72.4%
27.6%
-695
+550
-700
+525
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Sedriques Dumas 		62.2%
37.8%
-198
+170
-200
+175
Julian Erosa
Darren Elkins 		74.1%
25.9%
-375
+310
-340
+300
Mitch Raposo
Su Mudaerji 		37.2%
62.8%
+169
-189
+185
-210
Marco Tulio
Tresean Gore 		71.2%
28.8%
-320
+270
-320
+270
Hailey Cowan
Nora Cornolle 		40.9%
59.1%
+145
-168
+145
-160
Fights for Apr 11, 2025
Fights for Apr 13, 2025

Completed Fights

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TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lerone Murphy
Josh Emmett		65.6%
34.4%
-335
+310
-320
+290
Win
Loss		-0.27513-0.29008-0.42211
Joanderson Brito
Patrick Sabatini		67.0%
33.0%
-200
+175
-195
+190
Loss
Win		-1.04146-1.07055-1.10988
ChangHo Lee
Cortavious Romious		59.0%
41.0%
-155
+155
-150
+160
Win
Loss		-0.49784-0.49533-0.52845
Gerald Meerschaert
Brad Tavares		33.0%
67.0%
+140
-160
+140
-150
Loss
Win		-0.51706-0.52736-0.39988
Luis Gurule
Ode Osbourne		65.5%
34.5%
-255
+250
-260
+230
Loss
Win		-1.25678-1.21885-1.06482
Robert Valentin Frey
Torrez Finney		35.3%
64.7%
+310
-355
+375
-340
Loss
Win		-0.27202-0.24094-0.43467
Dione Barbosa
Diana Belbita		73.5%
26.5%
-1000
+700
-900
+675
Win
Loss		-0.12883-0.13398-0.30765
Daniel Frunza
Rhys McKee		57.2%
42.8%
-117
+107
-125
+110
Loss
Win		-0.74957-0.77319-0.84749
Istela Nunes
Loma Lookboonmee		28.0%
72.0%
+950
-950
+650
-950
Loss
Win		-0.10009-0.13747-0.32830
Pedro Falcao
Victor Henry		29.5%
70.5%
+169
-194
+175
-185
Loss
Win		-0.44685-0.44482-0.34903
Talita Alencar
Vanessa Demopoulos		49.8%
50.2%
-125
+110
-105
+120
Win
Loss		-0.61904-0.63522-0.69816
Muin Gafurov
Brandon Moreno		30.2%
69.8%
+222
-245
+240
-240
Loss
Win		-0.36278-0.34831-0.35987
Drew Dober
Manuel Torres		49.8%
50.2%
+115
-125
+110
-120
Loss
Win		-0.60825-0.62755-0.68961
CJ Vergara
Edgar Chairez		32.8%
67.2%
+230
-270
+240
-265
Loss
Win		-0.34732-0.34011-0.39800
Vince Morales
Raul Rosas Jr.		17.8%
82.2%
+425
-500
+400
-450
Loss
Win		-0.20586-0.21869-0.19565
Saimon Oliveira
David Martinez		30.0%
70.0%
+550
-700
+550
-750
Loss
Win		-0.16198-0.16073-0.35736
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Season Prediction Results

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 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks118-3 (0.727)0-0.53679 
Sportsbooks118-3 (0.727)0-0.54253 
DRatings117-4 (0.636)0-0.59004
-0.05325
-0.04751

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.