UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for April 17, 2021

TimeFightersWinBest
Line

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Kelvin Gastelum (17-6)
Robert Whittaker (23-5)		35.1%
64.9%
+210
-250
+210
-235
Bartosz Fabinski (15-4)
Gerald Meerschaert (31-14)		54.0%
46.0%
-125
+110
-135
+120
Juan Espino (11-1)
Alexandr Romanov (13-0)		33.2%
66.8%
+120
-137
+125
-125
All Bet Values Active
Drakkar Klose (11-2)
Jeremy Stephens (28-18)		47.2%
52.8%
+125
-140
+120
-130
Justine Kish (7-3)
Tracy Cortez (8-1)		43.7%
56.3%
+220
-240
+205
-240
Tony Gravely (20-6)
Anthony Birchak (16-7)		68.0%
32.0%
-300
+250
-280
+250
Bill Algeo (14-5)
Ricardo Ramos (14-3)		24.6%
75.4%
-105
-110
+100
-115
Jacob Malkoun (4-1)
Abdul Razak Alhassan (10-3)		11.0%
89.0%
+250
-290
+250
-285
Andrei Arlovski (30-20)
Chase Sherman (15-6)		37.8%
62.2%
-175
+150

Fights for Apr 16, 2021
Fights for Apr 24, 2021

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
Line		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Kevin Holland
Marvin Vettori		41.9%
58.1%
+260
-320
+270
-300
Loss
Win		-0.31086-0.30775-0.54233
Arnold Allen
Sodiq Yusuff		43.1%
56.9%
+133
-150
+130
-145
Win
Loss		-0.87465-0.85918-0.84223
Sam Alvey
Julian Marquez		39.4%
60.6%
+127
-147
+135
-148
Loss
Win		-0.55401-0.53828-0.50022
Nina Ansaroff
Mackenzie Dern		47.8%
52.2%
-120
+108
-120
+120
Loss
Win		-0.75824-0.78845-0.64972
Mike Perry
Daniel Rodriguez		28.2%
71.8%
+105
-119
+105
-120
Loss
Win		-0.64065-0.63885-0.33149
Jim Miller
Joe Solecki		44.8%
55.2%
+210
-250
+220
-240
Loss
Win		-0.37267-0.36652-0.59410
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks139-4 (0.692)0-0.63082 
Sportsbooks139-4 (0.692)0-0.62615 
DRatings139-4 (0.692)0-0.63433
-0.00351
-0.00818

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.