UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for September 28, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benoit Saint Denis
Renato Moicano 		65.6%
34.4%
-250
+215
-250
+210
Brendan Allen
Nassourdine Imavov 		37.8%
62.2%
+200
-235
+200
-240
Joanderson Brito
William Gomis 		69.3%
30.7%
-235
+200
-220
+190
Bryan Battle
Kevin Jousset 		61.1%
38.9%
-140
+120
-145
+125
Matt Frevola
Fares Ziam 		47.7%
52.3%
-120
+108
-135
+115
Ivan Erslan
Ion Cutelaba 		45.6%
54.4%
+105
-120
+105
-125
Da-Un Jung
Oumar Sy 		26.9%
73.1%
+350
-450
+350
-420
Ailin Perez
Daria Zheleznyakova 		66.2%
33.8%
-250
+210
-220
+190
Victor Altamirano
Daniel Barez 		71.7%
28.3%
+116
-136

Chris Duncan
Bolaji Oki 		43.3%
56.7%
+170
-200

Roosevelt Roberts
Ludovit Klein 		32.1%
67.9%
+525
-700

Gabriel Miranda
Morgan Charriere 		35.5%
64.5%
+400
-550

Fights for Sep 27, 2024
Fights for Sep 29, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Merab Dvalishvili
Sean O'Malley		54.6%
45.4%
+105
-103
+105
+100
Win
Loss		-0.71302-0.70558-0.60473
Valentina Shevchenko
Alexa Grasso		56.2%
43.8%
+115
-125
+106
-110
Win
Loss		-0.78592-0.73191-0.57593
Diego Lopes
Brian Ortega		56.3%
43.7%
-200
+180
-195
+180
Win
Loss		-0.42898-0.43197-0.57506
Esteban Ribovics
Daniel Zellhuber		39.7%
60.3%
+165
-175
+170
-180
Win
Loss		-0.98819-1.00641-0.92503
Ode Osbourne
Ronaldo Rodriguez		41.4%
58.6%
+170
-200
+180
-180
Loss
Win		-0.44183-0.44183-0.53367
Norma Dumont
Irene Aldana		48.6%
51.4%
-115
+117
-110
+125
Win
Loss		-0.62142-0.61435-0.72206
Ignacio Bahamondes
Manuel Torres		63.4%
36.6%
+125
-144
+132
-125
Win
Loss		-0.84495-0.82807-0.45549
Ketlen Souza
Yazmin Jauregui		24.6%
75.4%
+410
-500
+375
-440
Win
Loss		-1.65821-1.58314-1.40088
Edgar Chairez
Joshua Van		38.1%
61.9%
+240
-266
+235
-251
Loss
Win		-0.33982-0.34885-0.47939
Aori Qileng
Raul Rosas Jr.		18.4%
81.6%
+635
-935
+750
-900
Loss
Win		-0.14029-0.12286-0.20288
Sean Brady
Gilbert Burns		56.2%
43.8%
-185
+170
-185
+175
Win
Loss		-0.45144-0.44482-0.57593
Natalia Silva
Jessica Andrade		70.3%
29.7%
-275
+238
-280
+250
Win
Loss		-0.33893-0.32768-0.35288
Kyle Nelson
Steve Garcia		34.3%
65.7%
+175
-200
+190
-200
Loss
Win		-0.43532-0.41690-0.42006
Cody Durden
Matt Schnell		70.5%
29.5%
-275
+250
-300
+260
Win
Loss		-0.32902-0.31508-0.34991
Yanal Ashmouz
Trevor Peek		50.7%
49.3%
-121
+107
-125
+108
Win
Loss		-0.63252-0.62347-0.67924
Chris Padilla
Rong Zhu		26.8%
73.2%
+210
-235
+230
-250
Win
Loss		-1.15518-1.21110-1.31766
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks105-5 (0.500)0-0.69626 
Sportsbooks105-5 (0.500)0-0.68150 
DRatings107-3 (0.700)0-0.64751
0.04875
0.03398

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.