English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 11, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Manchester City
Fulham 		75.6%
8.9%		15.5%
-400
+1175
-450
+1100
2.46
0.72		3.18
o3½-106
u3½-106
o3½-110
u3½-110
Sheffield United
Everton 		12.2%
68.6%		19.3%
+630
-228
+580
-240
0.74
2.09		2.83
o3-120
u3+106
o3-120
u3+100
Burnley
Tottenham 		9.7%
74.5%		15.9%
+665
-280
+600
-290
0.76
2.46		3.22
o4-106
u4-102
o4-110
u4-105
Luton Town
West Ham United 		8.0%
77.2%		14.8%
+288
-117
+270
-125
0.68
2.50		3.18
o3¼-110
u3½-126
o3½+115
u3½-130
Volatility Bet Value Active
Brentford
Bournemouth 		28.7%
44.1%		27.2%
+253
+100
+245
-105
1.05
1.36		2.41
o3¼-102
u3¼-114
o3-135
u3+115
Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United 		24.5%
50.0%		25.5%
+403
-163
+380
-170
1.00
1.55		2.55
o3½-112
u3½+104
o3½-120
u3½+100
Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton 		32.8%
37.6%		29.6%
+148
+186
+145
+185
1.02
1.11		2.13
o2½-120
u2¾-117
o2½-130
u2½+110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest 		58.4%
17.9%		23.6%
+102
+260
+100
+245
1.72
0.83		2.55
o3¼+103
u3+116
o3-135
u3+115
Games for May 10, 2024
Games for May 12, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester United
Crystal Palace		35.0%
36.2%		28.8%
+258
+102
+260
+110
0
4		-0.73027-0.75226-1.01680
Tottenham
Liverpool		16.6%
63.3%		20.1%
+515
-227
+515
-245
2
4		-0.39525-0.38505-0.45800
Aston Villa
Brighton and Hove Albion		25.0%
49.5%		25.5%
+170
+150
+165
+170
0
1		-0.94595-0.99937-0.70298
West Ham United
Chelsea		14.6%
65.1%		20.3%
+475
-193
+450
-170
0
5		-0.44690-0.47681-0.42984
Wolverhampton
Manchester City		3.6%
87.2%		9.2%
+2250
-1000
+2300
-1250
1
5		-0.12347-0.12501-0.13716
Nottingham Forest
Sheffield United		32.1%
37.7%		30.2%
-145
+405
-150
+380
3
1		-0.55210-0.55621-1.13522
Newcastle United
Burnley		40.8%
31.2%		28.0%
+101
+246
+100
+233
4
1		-0.72247-0.73639-0.89637
Fulham
Brentford		28.2%
44.9%		26.9%
+244
+109
+235
+105
0
0		-1.38625-1.38721-1.31193
Bournemouth
Arsenal		5.8%
82.2%		12.0%
+1225
-444
+1171
-500
0
3		-0.23414-0.22666-0.19600
Everton
Luton Town		53.8%
21.7%		24.5%
+152
+181
+150
+180
1
1		-1.33895-1.31119-1.40678
Tottenham
Chelsea		26.4%
48.5%		25.1%
+165
+145
+165
+140
0
2		-0.92920-0.91854-0.72313
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest		81.0%
6.1%		12.9%
-347
+1075
-360
+975
2
0		-0.27694-0.28523-0.21072
Arsenal
Tottenham		36.6%
36.5%		26.9%
-132
+346
-130
+340
3
2		-0.58419-0.60629-1.00529
Brighton and Hove Albion
Bournemouth		40.8%
31.3%		27.9%
+263
+100
+250
+120
0
3		-0.71119-0.78185-1.16178
Chelsea
Aston Villa		38.9%
33.2%		27.9%
+241
+110
+220
+105
2
2		-1.41494-1.45985-1.27737
Brentford
Everton		21.8%
53.9%		24.3%
+150
+196
+155
+195
0
1		-1.10452-1.10676-0.61823
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/06/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Arsenal (26-5-5, 83 pts)27.05.45.586.631.4%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester City (25-3-7, 82 pts)27.03.47.688.668.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Liverpool (23-4-9, 78 pts)24.14.49.581.90.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Aston Villa (20-9-7, 67 pts)20.69.87.569.40.0%97.4%2.6%0.0%
5Tottenham (18-11-6, 60 pts)19.412.06.664.80.0%2.6%82.0%0.0%
6Newcastle United (17-13-5, 56 pts)18.213.95.860.50.0%0.0%10.9%0.0%
7Chelsea (15-11-9, 54 pts)16.611.69.859.60.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
8Manchester United (16-13-6, 54 pts)16.914.26.857.70.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%
9West Ham United (13-13-10, 49 pts)13.713.810.551.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Bournemouth (13-14-9, 48 pts)13.614.89.650.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Brighton and Hove Albion (12-12-11, 47 pts)12.913.311.950.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Wolverhampton (13-16-7, 46 pts)13.417.07.547.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Fulham (12-16-8, 44 pts)12.717.08.346.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Crystal Palace (11-15-10, 43 pts)11.815.710.645.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Everton (12-15-9, 39 pts)12.715.89.641.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Brentford (9-18-9, 36 pts)9.618.99.538.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Nottingham Forest (8-19-9, 29 pts)8.619.99.531.20.0%0.0%0.0%6.4%
18Luton Town (6-22-8, 26 pts)6.423.18.527.70.0%0.0%0.0%96.6%
19Burnley (5-22-9, 24 pts)5.522.99.626.20.0%0.0%0.0%97.0%
20Sheffield United (3-26-7, 16 pts)3.427.27.417.60.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.