France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 15, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		69.5%
12.1%		18.4%
+161
+165
+160
+160
2.21
0.80		3.01
o3+100
u3-120
o3+100
u3-120
Marseille
Reims 		43.6%
28.5%		27.9%
+118
+227
+125
+210
1.31
1.00		2.31
o2¾-118
u3-130
o2½-140
u3-140
Games for May 14, 2024
Games for May 19, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lyon
Clermont Foot		47.3%
26.8%		25.9%
-159
+397
-170
+425
1
0		-0.52650-0.51395-0.74902
Monaco
Montpellier		37.2%
36.3%		26.6%
-135
+323
-135
+300
2
0		-0.58218-0.60475-0.98940
Metz
Strasbourg		16.5%
61.7%		21.8%
+248
+114
+225
+115
1
2		-0.79122-0.81482-0.48319
Toulouse
Paris Saint-Germain		4.1%
86.5%		9.3%
+650
-260
+610
-275
3
1		-2.04577-2.00999-3.18230
Lille
Nantes		38.2%
33.2%		28.6%
-131
+405
-125
+340
2
1		-0.59178-0.63609-0.96184
Lens
Rennes		24.9%
49.9%		25.2%
+214
+128
+215
+125
1
1		-1.31923-1.28884-1.37999
Lorient
Marseille		10.6%
72.3%		17.1%
+550
-200
+530
-215
1
3		-0.43604-0.43034-0.32435
Le Havre
Nice		14.1%
64.1%		21.8%
+548
-174
+505
-180
0
1		-0.48115-0.48977-0.44399
Reims
Brest		23.9%
50.3%		25.8%
+460
-162
+435
-160
1
1		-1.47495-1.43729-1.35631
Lyon
Lille		20.7%
56.1%		23.2%
+247
+109
+240
+105
4
3		-1.27222-1.27465-1.57697
Nantes
Brest		26.7%
47.4%		25.9%
+450
-142
+425
-145
0
0		-1.35642-1.35957-1.35100
Rennes
Metz		49.7%
24.6%		25.7%
-101
+295
-105
+285
3
2		-0.71592-0.71756-0.69969
Clermont Foot
Monaco		9.5%
74.6%		15.9%
+719
-310
+710
-325
1
4		-0.31345-0.31653-0.29259
Strasbourg
Le Havre		39.6%
31.2%		29.2%
+205
+161
+195
+155
1
3		-0.97328-0.98355-1.16315
Lorient
Lens		15.7%
63.7%		20.6%
+600
-223
+570
-220
0
2		-0.39940-0.42089-0.45039
Montpellier
Toulouse		32.9%
40.8%		26.3%
+258
+105
+250
+100
2
1		-1.29861-1.30383-1.11069
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/06/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (20-1-10, 70 pts)22.21.310.577.1100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Monaco (18-7-7, 61 pts)18.97.67.664.20.0%99.4%0.6%0.0%
3Brest (16-7-9, 57 pts)16.77.79.659.80.0%63.1%36.9%0.0%
4Lille (15-7-10, 55 pts)15.97.510.658.30.0%35.8%64.2%0.0%
5Nice (14-8-9, 51 pts)14.89.59.754.10.0%1.7%66.7%0.0%
6Lens (14-11-7, 49 pts)14.711.77.651.80.0%0.0%22.6%0.0%
7Lyon (14-13-5, 47 pts)14.913.55.550.30.0%0.0%3.5%0.0%
8Rennes (12-11-9, 45 pts)12.811.69.647.90.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%
9Marseille (11-9-11, 44 pts)12.69.611.849.70.0%0.0%5.2%0.0%
10Montpellier (10-11-11, 41 pts)10.611.811.643.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Toulouse (10-12-10, 40 pts)10.413.110.541.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Reims (11-13-7, 40 pts)11.814.37.843.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Strasbourg (9-14-9, 36 pts)9.714.79.638.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Nantes (9-17-6, 33 pts)9.517.96.635.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Le Havre (7-14-11, 32 pts)7.515.111.533.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Metz (8-19-5, 29 pts)8.420.25.430.60.0%0.0%0.0%13.6%
17Lorient (6-18-8, 26 pts)6.618.88.628.40.0%0.0%0.0%89.6%
18Clermont Foot (5-17-10, 25 pts)5.617.910.527.20.0%0.0%0.0%96.8%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.