Spain La Liga Predictions


We started predicting La Liga games in 2013 using data from previous games to come up with our estimates. These La Liga predictions don’t account for weather, injuries, red cards or any other factors that may be cause the result of the game to be swayed in one direction or another. See my disclaimer page for more information about these predictions: Predictions Disclaimer

As the La Liga season rolls on, we also project how the teams will finish at the end of the campaign. For our latest season projections, scroll to the bottom of this page.

These La Liga soccer predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. However, if you do wish to place bets, then please read the sportsbook information page at: Sportsbook Reviews and Ratings.

Week 27 Spain La Liga Predictions

Date Away Home Odds to Win ML Prediction Score Proj Total Goals
3/8 Espanyol Ath Bilbao Ath Bilbao to win: 41.4% Ath Bilbao +142 1.21 2.22
Espanyol to win: 29.1% Espanyol +244 1.00
Odds to Draw: 29.5% Draw +239
3/9 Eibar Alaves Alaves to win: 51.3% Alaves -106 1.33 2.16
Eibar to win: 21.4% Eibar +368 0.83
Odds to Draw: 27.3% Draw +267
3/9 Leganes Atl. Madrid Atl. Madrid to win: 79.2% Atl. Madrid -381 2.10 2.65
Leganes to win: 6.6% Leganes +1416 0.54
Odds to Draw: 14.2% Draw +605
3/9 Rayo Vallecano Barcelona Barcelona to win: 90% Barcelona -900 3.34 3.80
Rayo Vallecano to win: 2.8% Rayo Vallecano +3472 0.46
Odds to Draw: 7.2% Draw +1289
3/9 Huesca Getafe Getafe to win: 67.5% Getafe -208 1.75 2.42
Huesca to win: 11.8% Huesca +748 0.67
Odds to Draw: 20.7% Draw +384
3/10 Betis Celta Vigo Celta Vigo to win: 52.3% Celta Vigo -110 1.67 2.66
Betis to win: 20.7% Betis +384 0.98
Odds to Draw: 27% Draw +271
3/10 Valencia Girona Girona to win: 25.9% Girona +287 0.96 2.26
Valencia to win: 45.2% Valencia +122 1.30
Odds to Draw: 28.9% Draw +247
3/10 Villarreal Levante Levante to win: 48.9% Levante +105 1.41 2.35
Villarreal to win: 23.1% Villarreal +333 0.93
Odds to Draw: 28% Draw +258
3/10 Real Sociedad Sevilla Sevilla to win: 43.4% Sevilla +131 1.44 2.56
Real Sociedad to win: 27.4% Real Sociedad +265 1.11
Odds to Draw: 29.2% Draw +243
3/10 Real Madrid Valladolid Valladolid to win: 6.5% Valladolid +1439 0.63 3.44
Real Madrid to win: 80% Real Madrid -400 2.81
Odds to Draw: 13.5% Draw +641

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Week 28 Spain La Liga Predictions

Date Away Home Odds to Win ML Prediction Score Proj Total Goals
3/15 Levante Real Sociedad Real Sociedad to win: 57.3% Real Sociedad -135 1.76 2.67
Levante to win: 17.5% Levante +472 0.90
Odds to Draw: 25.2% Draw +297
3/16 Alaves Huesca Huesca to win: 39.9% Huesca +151 0.97 1.82
Alaves to win: 30.4% Alaves +229 0.84
Odds to Draw: 29.7% Draw +237
3/16 Celta Vigo Real Madrid Real Madrid to win: 71.9% Real Madrid -256 2.66 3.48
Celta Vigo to win: 9.7% Celta Vigo +931 0.81
Odds to Draw: 18.4% Draw +444
3/16 Atl. Madrid Ath Bilbao Ath Bilbao to win: 19.6% Ath Bilbao +411 0.83 2.29
Atl. Madrid to win: 53.9% Atl. Madrid -117 1.45
Odds to Draw: 26.5% Draw +278
3/16 Girona Leganes Leganes to win: 38.1% Leganes +163 1.01 1.94
Girona to win: 32% Girona +213 0.92
Odds to Draw: 29.9% Draw +235
3/17 Valladolid Eibar Eibar to win: 70% Eibar -234 1.98 2.67
Valladolid to win: 10.6% Valladolid +844 0.69
Odds to Draw: 19.4% Draw +416
3/17 Sevilla Espanyol Espanyol to win: 50.3% Espanyol -102 1.56 2.55
Sevilla to win: 22.1% Sevilla +353 0.98
Odds to Draw: 27.6% Draw +263
3/17 Getafe Valencia Valencia to win: 56.8% Valencia -132 1.58 2.42
Getafe to win: 17.8% Getafe +462 0.83
Odds to Draw: 25.4% Draw +294
3/17 Rayo Vallecano Villarreal Villarreal to win: 71% Villarreal -245 2.02 2.71
Rayo Vallecano to win: 10.1% Rayo Vallecano +891 0.68
Odds to Draw: 18.9% Draw +430
3/17 Barcelona Betis Betis to win: 18.4% Betis +444 1.03 3.00
Barcelona to win: 55.8% Barcelona -127 1.97
Odds to Draw: 25.8% Draw +288

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Spain La Liga Season Prediction – Wins, Losses, Points

Below is our La Liga table projections that will be updated often as the season progresses. This projects out how each La Liga team will do in regards to the final season table. It provides probabilities for wins, losses, ties, points, and more.

Last simulation was done on 2/1/2019.

Actual Projected
Team Wins Losses Draws Points Wins Losses Draws Points
Barcelona
17
2
6
57
25.8
4
8.2
85.5
Real Madrid
15
7
3
48
25
8.2
4.8
79.7
Atl. Madrid
14
3
8
50
21
5.8
11.1
74.2
Sevilla
10
8
7
37
16.1
11.7
10.2
58.6
Getafe
10
6
9
39
14.4
11.3
12.3
55.5
Valencia
6
4
15
33
12.1
7.8
18.1
54.3
Alaves
10
8
7
37
14.2
13.3
10.5
53.1
Real Sociedad
9
8
8
35
14
13
11
53
Betis
10
9
6
36
14.1
14.7
9.1
51.6
Ath Bilbao
7
6
12
33
11.7
11.2
15.2
50.1
Espanyol
8
11
6
30
12.6
16
9.4
47.2
Levante
8
11
6
30
12.5
16.5
9
46.4
Eibar
7
8
10
31
10.7
14.2
13.1
45.2
Leganes
7
9
9
30
10.6
15
12.4
44.3
Girona
6
9
10
28
10
14.4
13.6
43.6
Celta Vigo
6
12
7
25
10.7
17.2
10.1
42.3
Villarreal
4
10
11
23
9
14.8
14.3
41.2
Valladolid
6
11
8
26
8.7
18.1
11.1
37.3
Rayo Vallecano
6
14
5
23
8.8
21.3
7.8
34.3
Huesca
4
14
7
19
7.2
20.6
10.2
31.8

La Liga Season Prediction – Probability to win Title, Relegation

The top four in the La liga table at the end of the 2018-2019 season will be awarded seeds into the Group Stage of the 2019-2020 Champions League. Similiarly, the fifth and sixth placed teams will earn a berth to the Group Stage of Europa League for the following season.

Probability to Win/Advance/Be Demoted
Team League Champs Lg Europa Lg Relegation
Barcelona
84.2%
100%
0%
0%
Real Madrid
13.9%
100%
0%
0%
Atl. Madrid
1.9%
100%
0%
0%
Sevilla
0%
44.1%
35%
0%
Getafe
0%
18.6%
38.7%
0%
Valencia
0%
13.1%
36.6%
0%
Alaves
0%
7%
23%
0.1%
Real Sociedad
0%
9.3%
25.8%
0.2%
Betis
0%
3.2%
17.1%
0.1%
Ath Bilbao
0%
3.1%
11.1%
0.5%
Espanyol
0%
0.8%
4.1%
2.7%
Levante
0%
0.5%
3.8%
4.1%
Eibar
0%
0%
2%
4.8%
Leganes
0%
0%
1.4%
7.9%
Girona
0%
0.2%
0.9%
10.7%
Celta Vigo
0%
0.1%
0.4%
15.3%
Villarreal
0%
0%
0%
19%
Valladolid
0%
0%
0.1%
59.9%
Rayo Vallecano
0%
0%
0%
83.3%
Huesca
0%
0%
0%
91.4%