Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 22, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Fortuna Sittard
Willem II
31.8%
43.7%
24.5%
+311
-115

1.18
1.63
2.81
o2¾+102
u2¾-120

Games for Oct 21, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Willem II
Twente
27.3%
50.8%
22.0%
+440
-144
+440
-150
1
1
-1.12594-1.14916-0.98904
Vitesse
NEC Nijmegen
66.0%
18.2%
15.8%
+155
+191
+140
+190
1
0
-0.95342-0.92553-0.41515
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
32.1%
40.0%
27.9%
+205
+154
+205
+140
1
1
-1.04093-1.04178-1.02629
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
19.5%
65.0%
15.5%
+285
+100
+255
-105
1
5
-0.69977-0.72128-0.43046
Cambuur
Fortuna Sittard
16.4%
70.5%
13.1%
+149
+184
+135
+190
0
1
-1.06822-1.11173-0.34988
Zwolle
PSV Eindhoven
13.7%
77.8%
8.5%
+2178
-714
+2100
-900
1
3
-0.15524-0.15483-0.25068
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 10/18/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (7-1-1, 22 pts)24.44.35.378.686.9%97.5%0.5%0.0%
2PSV Eindhoven (7-2-0, 21 pts)21.17.35.668.911.3%65.4%10.9%0.0%
3Utrecht (5-2-2, 17 pts)15.99.58.656.20.2%4.9%43.5%0.0%
4Willem II (5-2-2, 17 pts)12.712.68.746.80.0%0.2%6.7%0.1%
5Feyenoord (5-2-1, 16 pts)17.19.47.558.90.5%11.1%43.6%0.0%
6Vitesse (5-3-1, 16 pts)15.511.07.554.00.0%1.7%30.7%0.1%
7Twente (4-2-3, 15 pts)12.811.39.948.20.0%0.3%11.9%0.2%
8Heerenveen (4-4-1, 13 pts)13.013.17.946.80.0%0.2%6.8%0.2%
9AZ Alkmaar (4-4-0, 12 pts)18.59.46.161.61.1%18.7%36.2%0.0%
10Cambuur (4-5-0, 12 pts)8.919.35.732.60.0%0.0%0.0%34.2%
11NEC Nijmegen (3-4-2, 11 pts)7.719.07.330.40.0%0.0%0.0%48.3%
12Heracles Almelo (3-4-1, 10 pts)11.914.18.043.80.0%0.0%4.0%1.3%
13Go Ahead Eagles (3-5-1, 10 pts)7.719.66.629.80.0%0.0%0.0%50.3%
14Fortuna Sittard (2-4-2, 8 pts)10.614.58.940.80.0%0.0%0.9%3.1%
15RKC Waalwijk (1-4-4, 7 pts)7.716.010.333.30.0%0.0%0.1%23.2%
16Groningen (1-4-4, 7 pts)10.912.410.743.50.0%0.0%3.2%2.4%
17Sparta Rotterdam (1-4-4, 7 pts)9.713.710.639.70.0%0.0%1.0%4.8%
18Zwolle (0-8-1, 1 pts)8.217.97.932.40.0%0.0%0.0%31.8%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.