Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 9, 2023

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Sparta Rotterdam
Ajax 		10.4%
73.2%		16.4%
+725
-260
+650
-280
0.79
2.41		3.20
o3¼-108
u3½-126

Volatility Bet Value Active
NEC Nijmegen
Zwolle 		31.5%
41.2%		27.2%
+215
+130
+200
+130
1.12
1.32		2.44
o2¾+102
u2¾-115

Almere City
AZ Alkmaar 		4.8%
84.5%		10.7%
+1400
-575
+1200
-525
0.59
2.93		3.52
o3¼+100
u3¼-117

Games for Dec 8, 2023
Games for Dec 10, 2023

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Excelsior
Twente		11.2%
70.8%		18.0%
+1032
-388
+950
-400
2
4		-0.26039-0.27335-0.34534
Volendam
Feyenoord		3.6%
87.5%		8.9%
+3500
-1958
+2740
-1600
1
3		-0.08877-0.10985-0.13351
Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven		7.9%
78.7%		13.3%
+1250
-522
+1350
-650
0
2		-0.20575-0.19502-0.23936
AZ Alkmaar
Utrecht		50.7%
25.1%		24.1%
-109
+335
-120
+335
1
1		-1.31580-1.34289-1.42126
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen		64.1%
15.4%		20.5%
-107
+279
-140
+330
2
1		-0.68080-0.58891-0.44396
Twente
Go Ahead Eagles		54.2%
22.3%		23.5%
+103
+268
-105
+275
3
1		-0.73789-0.71701-0.61312
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord		30.2%
44.9%		24.9%
+236
+110
+200
+120
2
1		-1.24109-1.14841-1.19604
Sparta Rotterdam
Heracles Almelo		37.5%
34.6%		27.8%
+166
+165
+160
+155
1
0		-1.00745-1.00501-0.98043
Excelsior
RKC Waalwijk		29.1%
43.8%		27.0%
+268
+105
+260
-105
2
2		-1.36328-1.39659-1.30774
Vitesse
Fortuna Sittard		32.2%
41.5%		26.2%
+275
+106
+265
+100
1
3		-0.74627-0.74360-0.87866
Zwolle
Volendam		35.1%
36.3%		28.7%
+145
+183
+145
+170
5
0		-0.92047-0.94727-1.04825
Almere City
Heerenveen		11.8%
69.7%		18.5%
+500
-160
+500
-175
0
3		-0.50602-0.50367-0.36098
Utrecht
Sparta Rotterdam		27.1%
47.8%		25.1%
+195
+145
+200
+140
2
1		-1.12058-1.14599-1.30468
Go Ahead Eagles
NEC Nijmegen		26.4%
47.9%		25.7%
+215
+126
+175
+135
1
1		-1.31796-1.38601-1.35864
Volendam
AZ Alkmaar		4.1%
86.1%		9.8%
+1505
-552
+1450
-635
0
3		-0.19479-0.19473-0.15001
Heracles Almelo
Almere City		38.9%
32.7%		28.4%
+295
-110
+255
-105
5
0		-1.41646-1.31602-0.94487
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.26039 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.27335 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.34534
-0.08495
-0.07199

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.