Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 7, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Groningen
Ajax
14.9%
72.0%
13.1%
+1138
-417
+1100
-425
0.53
2.56
3.10
o3-140
u3½-129

Volatility Bet Value Active
PSV Eindhoven
Fortuna Sittard
62.9%
21.5%
15.6%
-204
+525
-220
+525
2.56
0.87
3.44
o3-119
u3+105

Zwolle
Heracles Almelo
30.3%
45.4%
24.3%
+247
+121
+250
+105
1.11
1.66
2.77
o2½-105
u2½-114

AZ Alkmaar
Vitesse
45.3%
29.8%
24.9%
+101
+240
+105
+230
1.60
1.06
2.66
o3+112
u3-125

Games for Mar 6, 2021
Games for Mar 8, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Utrecht
RKC Waalwijk
58.9%
22.4%
18.7%
-189
+554
-200
+475
2
1
-0.21012-0.23179-0.32225
ADO Den Haag
Heerenveen
19.2%
65.5%
15.3%
+464
-169
+500
-170
0
3
-0.24859-0.23485-0.25710
Willem II
Twente
30.8%
45.0%
24.2%
+307
-109
+375
-145
1
1
-0.76235-0.82113-0.71090
VVV-Venlo
Feyenoord
18.9%
67.0%
14.1%
+1238
-476
+1100
-475
0
6
-0.08658-0.09610-0.24860
Sparta Rotterdam
Emmen
51.1%
27.4%
21.5%
+142
+202
+135
+200
1
1
-0.69926-0.70058-0.74106
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar
29.6%
46.0%
24.4%
+248
-104
+240
+100
2
4
-0.44704-0.46262-0.47575
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks43-0-1 (0.875)0-0.32691 
Sportsbooks43-0-1 (0.875)0-0.34597 
DRatings43-0-1 (0.875)0-0.38471
-0.05780
-0.03874

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/28/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-2-3, 57 pts)25.43.55.081.399.3%99.9%0.0%0.0%
2PSV Eindhoven (15-3-6, 51 pts)20.05.48.668.70.5%61.1%7.9%0.0%
3AZ Alkmaar (14-3-7, 49 pts)19.25.39.567.00.2%34.3%17.2%0.0%
4Vitesse (14-7-3, 45 pts)18.110.25.760.10.0%1.4%67.9%0.0%
5Feyenoord (12-5-7, 43 pts)16.97.69.560.10.0%2.5%65.8%0.0%
6Groningen (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.29.28.657.30.0%0.8%33.4%0.0%
7Twente (9-7-8, 35 pts)12.710.510.948.80.0%0.0%2.2%0.0%
8Utrecht (8-5-10, 34 pts)12.68.612.850.70.0%0.0%5.4%0.0%
9Fortuna Sittard (9-11-4, 31 pts)12.015.36.742.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (7-8-9, 30 pts)10.611.711.743.50.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
11Heracles Almelo (8-11-5, 29 pts)11.514.67.942.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Zwolle (5-8-11, 26 pts)7.812.413.737.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Sparta Rotterdam (6-12-5, 23 pts)9.816.18.237.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14RKC Waalwijk (5-11-8, 23 pts)7.216.610.231.80.0%0.0%0.0%3.1%
15VVV-Venlo (6-13-4, 22 pts)9.217.96.934.50.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%
16Willem II (4-15-5, 17 pts)7.119.27.728.90.0%0.0%0.0%16.7%
17ADO Den Haag (2-13-9, 15 pts)3.918.811.323.00.0%0.0%0.0%85.6%
18Emmen (2-16-6, 12 pts)4.121.58.420.60.0%0.0%0.0%93.4%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.