France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 10, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Reims
Brest 		23.9%
50.3%		25.8%
+380
-133
+375
-140
0.96
1.53		2.49
o2¾-108
u2¾-110
o2½-135
u2½+115
Le Havre
Nice 		14.1%
64.1%		21.8%
+548
-177
+510
-185
0.73
1.85		2.58
o2½-104
u2½-109
o2½-105
u2½-115
Games for May 9, 2024
Games for May 12, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lyon
Lille		20.7%
56.1%		23.2%
+247
+109
+240
+105
4
3		-1.27222-1.27465-1.57697
Nantes
Brest		26.7%
47.4%		25.9%
+450
-142
+425
-145
0
0		-1.35642-1.35957-1.35100
Rennes
Metz		49.7%
24.6%		25.7%
-101
+295
-105
+285
3
2		-0.71592-0.71756-0.69969
Clermont Foot
Monaco		9.5%
74.6%		15.9%
+719
-310
+710
-325
1
4		-0.31345-0.31653-0.29259
Strasbourg
Le Havre		39.6%
31.2%		29.2%
+205
+161
+195
+155
1
3		-0.97328-0.98355-1.16315
Lorient
Lens		15.7%
63.7%		20.6%
+600
-223
+570
-220
0
2		-0.39940-0.42089-0.45039
Montpellier
Toulouse		32.9%
40.8%		26.3%
+258
+105
+250
+100
2
1		-1.29861-1.30383-1.11069
Lens
Marseille		18.6%
59.0%		22.4%
+226
+125
+215
+125
1
2		-0.83949-0.86140-0.52726
Monaco
Lyon		31.7%
42.7%		25.6%
+186
+140
+175
+130
2
3		-0.89104-0.88020-0.85043
Brest
Rennes		20.0%
57.2%		22.8%
+261
+120
+235
+125
5
4		-1.31334-1.25836-1.61099
Toulouse
Lorient		28.3%
46.0%		25.8%
+201
+150
+170
+160
2
1		-1.11893-1.04120-1.26397
Reims
Clermont Foot		35.3%
34.3%		30.3%
+110
+249
+110
+235
1
4		-1.27751-1.26008-1.06921
Nice
Strasbourg		27.9%
45.6%		26.5%
+125
+257
+125
+235
3
1		-0.83374-0.86034-1.27654
Lille
Metz		55.9%
19.9%		24.2%
-150
+462
-160
+465
2
1		-0.53839-0.53631-0.58209
Le Havre
Paris Saint-Germain		3.0%
88.5%		8.6%
+885
-311
+850
-320
3
3		-1.78082-1.73738-2.45795
Nantes
Montpellier		25.7%
49.2%		25.1%
+280
+107
+275
+100
1
1		-1.31476-1.31420-1.38334
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/06/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (20-1-10, 70 pts)22.21.310.577.1100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Monaco (18-7-7, 61 pts)18.97.67.664.20.0%99.4%0.6%0.0%
3Brest (16-7-9, 57 pts)16.77.79.659.80.0%63.1%36.9%0.0%
4Lille (15-7-10, 55 pts)15.97.510.658.30.0%35.8%64.2%0.0%
5Nice (14-8-9, 51 pts)14.89.59.754.10.0%1.7%66.7%0.0%
6Lens (14-11-7, 49 pts)14.711.77.651.80.0%0.0%22.6%0.0%
7Lyon (14-13-5, 47 pts)14.913.55.550.30.0%0.0%3.5%0.0%
8Rennes (12-11-9, 45 pts)12.811.69.647.90.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%
9Marseille (11-9-11, 44 pts)12.69.611.849.70.0%0.0%5.2%0.0%
10Montpellier (10-11-11, 41 pts)10.611.811.643.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Toulouse (10-12-10, 40 pts)10.413.110.541.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Reims (11-13-7, 40 pts)11.814.37.843.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Strasbourg (9-14-9, 36 pts)9.714.79.638.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Nantes (9-17-6, 33 pts)9.517.96.635.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Le Havre (7-14-11, 32 pts)7.515.111.533.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Metz (8-19-5, 29 pts)8.420.25.430.60.0%0.0%0.0%13.6%
17Lorient (6-18-8, 26 pts)6.618.88.628.40.0%0.0%0.0%89.6%
18Clermont Foot (5-17-10, 25 pts)5.617.910.527.20.0%0.0%0.0%96.8%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.