Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 8, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Gil Vicente FC
Estrela 		46.2%
25.4%		28.3%
-115
+370
-125
+370
1.30
0.89		2.19
o2¼-108
u2¼-112

Porto
Benfica 		23.7%
51.5%		24.8%
+270
+114
+260
+115
1.01
1.62		2.63
o2¼-102
u2¼-116

Vitoria
Santa Clara 		34.8%
36.4%		28.8%
+200
+165
+195
+165
1.10
1.14		2.24
o2-120
u2¼-140

Games for Mar 7, 2026
Games for Mar 9, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Casa Pia AC
Estoril 		17.4%
59.6%		22.9%
+355
-132
+355
-135
2.63
o2½-118
u2¾-123

2nd H
85:00		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Arouca
Braga		10.8%
71.0%		18.2%
+583
-230
+540
-225
3
0		-1.95892-1.90562-2.22257
FC Vizela
Famalicao		25.5%
48.6%		25.9%
+368
-119
+375
-125
2
3		-0.64050-0.63828-0.72093
Gil Vicente FC
Rio Ave		22.8%
50.0%		27.2%
+214
+154
+230
+140
0
3		-0.96632-0.92712-0.69275
Boavista
SC Farense		26.3%
45.9%		27.8%
+294
+111
+260
+110
0
2		-0.77879-0.79308-0.77881
Braga
Portimonense		61.7%
15.9%		22.3%
-232
+670
-240
+650
5
3		-0.39556-0.39686-0.48219
Casa Pia AC
FC Vizela		20.4%
54.8%		24.8%
+261
+118
+255
+115
4
0		-1.31737-1.31557-1.58787
Porto
Estoril		70.4%
11.0%		18.6%
-304
+891
-330
+850
0
1		-2.33140-2.30129-2.20828
Rio Ave
Boavista		30.9%
39.8%		29.2%
+155
+206
+145
+215
0
0		-1.17655-1.17847-1.22929
SC Farense
Arouca		18.8%
55.7%		25.5%
+393
-131
+375
-135
1
2		-0.59517-0.60468-0.58471
Moreirense
Vitoria		16.3%
61.0%		22.6%
+325
-102
+335
-110
0
1		-0.71541-0.69752-0.49384
Sporting CP
Estrela		74.7%
9.0%		16.3%
-400
+1184
-425
+1100
2
1		-0.25837-0.26282-0.29111
Chaves
Benfica		3.0%
89.0%		8.0%
+1989
-950
+2000
-1000
0
1		-0.15574-0.14595-0.11655
Famalicao
Gil Vicente FC		27.3%
45.8%		26.9%
+220
+158
+220
+140
2
1		-1.18055-1.21362-1.29905
Boavista
Sporting CP		4.2%
85.5%		10.3%
+1800
-715
+1700
-650
1
6		-0.17739-0.19309-0.15716
Benfica
Casa Pia AC		79.1%
7.1%		13.8%
-321
+1200
-350
+1050
1
0		-0.29447-0.30004-0.23415
Vitoria
Chaves		51.9%
22.5%		25.7%
+100
+322
-110
+310
2
1		-0.71478-0.69485-0.65662
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.33734 
Sportsbooks20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.34378 
DRatings20-0-2 (0.500)0-1.34550
-0.00816
-0.00173

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).