Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 14, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Famalicao
Vitoria 		25.6%
48.5%		25.9%
+193
+139
+200
+140
1.02
1.51		2.53
o2¼-118
u2¼-102

Alverca
Gil Vicente FC 		15.3%
62.3%		22.3%
+430
-150
+445
-150
0.77
1.82		2.59
o2¼-115
u2¼-105

Benfica
Arouca 		71.1%
10.8%		18.1%
-365
+900
-370
+930
2.19
0.72		2.91
o3+102
u3-122

Games for Mar 13, 2026
Games for Mar 15, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Pacos
Santa Clara		23.4%
50.1%		26.5%
+373
-115
+390
-120
1
1		-1.26340-1.24514-1.32908
Rio Ave
Gil Vicente FC		18.4%
56.3%		25.2%
+272
+107
+275
+105
2
2		-1.29382-1.27122-1.37741
Chaves
Portimonense		20.4%
53.6%		25.9%
+258
+130
+260
+115
0
1		-0.85541-0.81482-0.62321
Estoril
FC Vizela		27.8%
44.9%		27.3%
+268
+112
+265
+110
1
0		-1.33325-1.34228-1.27884
Braga
Rio Ave		56.2%
19.5%		24.3%
-171
+494
-180
+510
3
2		-0.49451-0.49127-0.57600
Boavista
Arouca		39.4%
32.1%		28.5%
+180
+175
+175
+175
2
1		-1.08338-1.06528-0.93158
Gil Vicente FC
Maritimo		36.0%
33.1%		30.9%
+171
+178
+170
+170
2
1		-1.03547-1.04512-1.02260
Casa Pia AC
Pacos		21.6%
52.6%		25.8%
+153
+213
+150
+210
3
2		-0.96485-0.96551-1.53331
Chaves
Porto		3.4%
87.5%		9.1%
+1337
-430
+1600
-600
0
3		-0.24100-0.20226-0.13386
Portimonense
Sporting CP		5.5%
81.1%		13.3%
+841
-298
+800
-325
0
4		-0.32681-0.31680-0.20903
Benfica
Famalicao		68.1%
13.4%		18.5%
-230
+670
-240
+650
1
0		-0.39771-0.39899-0.38446
Santa Clara
Vitoria		16.9%
60.7%		22.5%
+301
+108
+300
+100
0
1		-0.75976-0.74482-0.49989
Rio Ave
Chaves		27.3%
44.0%		28.7%
+222
+154
+230
+135
1
1		-1.16229-1.18130-1.24716
Pacos
Boavista		23.3%
49.9%		26.8%
+315
-105
+345
-110
0
1		-0.71523-0.69689-0.69531
Famalicao
Portimonense		27.1%
45.4%		27.5%
+202
+150
+195
+150
0
1		-0.94636-0.96648-0.78977
Maritimo
Santa Clara		19.9%
54.5%		25.6%
+293
+115
+310
+100
1
2		-0.78250-0.74345-0.60680
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.31390 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.34458 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.30711
0.00679
0.03747

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).