Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 18, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Betis
Atletico Madrid 		12.2%
68.9%		18.8%
+281
-105
+265
-105
0.77
2.15		2.92
o2½-130
u2¾-115
o2½-125
u2½+120
Alaves
Valladolid 		51.7%
22.3%		26.0%
-166
+550
-170
+530
1.51
0.89		2.40
o2¼-122
u2½-124
o2½+105
u2½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Athletic Club
Valencia 		45.6%
27.0%		27.3%
+280
+128
+295
+125
1.37
0.99		2.36
o2-125
u2¼-128
o2-125
u2+110
Rayo Vallecano
Celta Vigo 		19.1%
57.6%		23.2%
+339
-126
+330
-130
0.91
1.77		2.68
o2½-131
u2¾-112
o2½-135
u2½+120
Girona
Real Sociedad 		21.2%
54.0%		24.9%
+303
+114
+320
+110
0.91
1.61		2.52
o2¼-118
u2½-130
o2½+110
u2½-130
Volatility Bet Value Active
Leganes
Las Palmas 		20.3%
53.5%		26.2%
+145
+190
+140
+185
0.81
1.50		2.31
o2½-120
u2½+105
o2½-120
u2½+100
Real Madrid
Sevilla 		60.3%
17.2%		22.5%
-117
+300
-130
+325
1.83
0.86		2.69
o2¾-118
u3-118
o3+105
u3+105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Volatility Bet Value Active
Getafe
Mallorca 		27.9%
42.2%		29.8%
+310
+108
+325
+100
0.90
1.17		2.07
o2+107
u2-122
o2+105
u2-120
Espanyol
Osasuna 		16.6%
61.0%		22.3%
+374
-118
+365
-125
0.84
1.84		2.68
o2¼-120
u2½-127
o2½+110
u2½-130
Volatility Bet Value Active
Villarreal
Barcelona 		11.0%
72.2%		16.8%
+271
-114
+261
-115
0.82
2.39		3.21
o3½-103
u3½-105
o3½-105
u3½-105
Games for May 17, 2025
Games for May 19, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Athletic Club
Getafe		46.5%
24.9%		28.6%
+194
+230
+185
+230
2
0		-1.10582-1.08512-0.76512
Barcelona
Espanyol		75.1%
9.1%		15.8%
-276
+700
-290
+670
2
0		-0.34016-0.34255-0.28642
Atletico Madrid
Osasuna		50.7%
23.0%		26.3%
+115
+275
+115
+280
0
2		-1.34316-1.36145-1.46894
Betis
Rayo Vallecano		32.2%
40.1%		27.7%
+136
+228
+140
+210
2
2		-1.24414-1.21362-1.28399
Mallorca
Real Madrid		5.4%
82.3%		12.3%
+625
-226
+700
-245
1
2		-0.39707-0.37683-0.19460
Valencia
Alaves		21.7%
52.7%		25.5%
+283
+134
+285
+125
0
1		-0.87834-0.85320-0.63991
Leganes
Villarreal		7.9%
76.9%		15.2%
+880
-319
+885
-335
0
3		-0.30228-0.30016-0.26220
Las Palmas
Sevilla		17.1%
59.4%		23.6%
+450
-143
+450
-145
0
1		-0.55340-0.56068-0.52143
Celta Vigo
Real Sociedad		25.6%
48.1%		26.3%
+233
+134
+220
+128
1
0		-1.22881-1.20738-1.36336
Girona
Valladolid		49.1%
24.7%		26.2%
-135
+410
-140
+378
1
0		-0.57650-0.58368-0.71133
Osasuna
Betis		22.3%
53.1%		24.6%
+455
-153
+455
-160
1
1		-1.45783-1.43083-1.40076
Alaves
Athletic Club		15.3%
61.9%		22.8%
+392
+110
+390
+115
0
1		-0.76591-0.78294-0.47941
Real Madrid
Barcelona		25.2%
49.6%		25.2%
+278
-112
+250
-115
3
4		-0.64827-0.67002-0.70136
Espanyol
Leganes		29.8%
41.2%		28.9%
+230
+141
+220
+140
2
3		-0.90496-0.92591-0.88610
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid		13.8%
65.2%		21.0%
+405
-124
+370
-125
0
4		-0.61882-0.63660-0.42751
Villarreal
Girona		37.6%
34.7%		27.7%
+134
+205
+135
+195
1
0		-0.88261-0.89145-0.97896
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/12/25
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Barcelona (26-5-4, 82 pts)27.85.54.788.099.4%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Real Madrid (23-6-6, 75 pts)24.76.56.780.90.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Atletico Madrid (20-5-10, 70 pts)21.65.610.875.70.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Athletic Club (17-5-13, 64 pts)18.36.013.768.70.0%92.6%7.4%0.0%
5Villarreal (17-8-10, 61 pts)18.19.010.965.20.0%7.0%93.0%0.0%
6Betis (16-9-10, 58 pts)17.010.010.962.00.0%0.4%99.3%0.0%
7Celta Vigo (14-14-7, 49 pts)15.314.97.953.70.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%
8Rayo Vallecano (12-12-11, 47 pts)12.913.211.950.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Mallorca (13-14-8, 47 pts)13.915.38.850.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Osasuna (10-10-15, 45 pts)10.911.215.948.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Valencia (11-12-12, 45 pts)11.913.212.848.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Real Sociedad (12-16-7, 43 pts)12.917.27.946.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Getafe (10-16-9, 39 pts)10.917.49.842.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%
14Espanyol (10-16-9, 39 pts)10.717.69.741.80.0%0.0%0.0%4.5%
15Sevilla (9-15-11, 38 pts)9.816.411.841.30.0%0.0%0.0%10.7%
16Girona (10-17-8, 38 pts)11.118.18.842.10.0%0.0%0.0%4.6%
17Alaves (8-16-11, 35 pts)9.316.911.839.70.0%0.0%0.0%21.7%
18Leganes (7-15-13, 34 pts)7.916.213.937.60.0%0.0%0.0%76.7%
19Las Palmas (8-19-8, 32 pts)9.120.08.936.30.0%0.0%0.0%81.5%
20Valladolid (4-27-4, 16 pts)4.728.64.718.90.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.