Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 5, 2023

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Sevilla
Barcelona 		10.2%
72.2%		17.6%
+925
-286
+900
-325
0.70
2.23		2.93
o3+128
u2¾-108
o2½-140
u2½+120
Games for Feb 4, 2023
Games for Feb 6, 2023

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Valladolid
Real Sociedad 		15.6%
62.8%		21.6%
+675
-201
+650
-210
2.73
o2½+102
u2½-116
o2½+105
u2½-120
1st H
35:00		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Valencia
Girona		39.2%
32.3%		28.5%
+235
+137
+230
+130
0
1		-0.88167-0.88201-1.13088
Real Madrid
Mallorca		69.7%
11.5%		18.8%
-122
+421
-135
+420
0
1		-1.67270-1.69980-2.16631
Celta Vigo
Betis		20.9%
55.8%		23.3%
+309
+111
+295
+110
4
3		-1.42533-1.42437-1.56322
Getafe
Atletico Madrid		9.1%
72.3%		18.6%
+868
-212
+875
-240
1
1		-1.44847-1.46201-1.68179
Villarreal
Elche		59.5%
17.9%		22.6%
-144
+443
-150
+415
1
3		-1.71535-1.68837-1.71925
Osasuna
Espanyol		34.8%
35.6%		29.5%
+211
+178
+190
+175
1
1		-1.12643-1.12819-1.21976
Cadiz
Athletic Club		8.8%
73.5%		17.6%
+988
-262
+850
-260
1
4		-0.34745-0.37631-0.30769
Valencia
Real Madrid		9.2%
75.0%		15.8%
+830
-249
+770
-290
0
2		-0.35083-0.34763-0.28712
Barcelona
Betis		55.7%
21.2%		23.1%
-124
+396
-135
+365
2
1		-0.61367-0.60565-0.58553
Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal		9.3%
74.9%		15.8%
+392
-122
+380
-125
1
0		-1.61541-1.60944-2.37849
Real Sociedad
Real Madrid		9.0%
75.0%		16.0%
+404
-127
+400
-140
0
0		-1.35580-1.37054-1.83296
Athletic Club
Celta Vigo		45.1%
27.4%		27.5%
+163
+230
+160
+205
0
1		-1.21039-1.16533-1.29390
Atletico Madrid
Osasuna		42.9%
28.5%		28.6%
+108
+340
+105
+300
1
0		-0.75271-0.76692-0.84658
Valencia
Valladolid		40.0%
32.0%		28.0%
+150
+222
+135
+220
0
1		-1.18839-1.21244-1.13853
Betis
Getafe		36.4%
34.3%		29.3%
+187
+210
+165
+215
1
0		-1.07476-1.02521-1.01107
Elche
Sevilla		11.7%
68.2%		20.0%
+638
-178
+585
-190
0
3		-0.46533-0.47276-0.38201
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-2-0 (0.333)0-1.32657 
Sportsbooks31-2-0 (0.333)0-1.33539 
DRatings30-3-0 (0.000)0-1.62014
-0.29357
-0.28474

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/30/23
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Barcelona (14-1-2, 44 pts)26.25.06.785.467.8%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Real Madrid (13-2-2, 41 pts)25.16.16.882.132.1%99.5%0.5%0.0%
3Real Sociedad (12-4-2, 38 pts)19.410.87.866.00.0%59.5%29.7%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (9-5-4, 31 pts)18.910.09.165.80.1%63.0%28.5%0.0%
5Villarreal (9-5-4, 31 pts)18.210.59.363.90.0%45.0%39.0%0.0%
6Betis (8-5-4, 28 pts)15.512.69.956.40.0%8.1%25.7%0.1%
7Osasuna (8-6-4, 28 pts)15.013.59.554.60.0%4.2%16.8%0.2%
8Athletic Club (7-6-5, 26 pts)16.411.310.359.40.0%18.7%41.1%0.0%
9Rayo Vallecano (7-6-5, 26 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.7%2.4%2.1%
10Mallorca (7-7-4, 25 pts)12.615.89.547.50.0%0.2%2.9%3.2%
11Girona (5-7-6, 21 pts)10.815.811.343.80.0%0.0%0.6%12.0%
12Valencia (5-7-5, 20 pts)13.313.910.850.70.0%0.9%8.9%0.8%
13Espanyol (4-6-8, 20 pts)9.914.713.443.00.0%0.0%0.5%11.7%
14Almeria (5-9-4, 19 pts)10.817.89.541.80.0%0.1%0.2%22.5%
15Sevilla (4-8-6, 18 pts)12.014.511.547.50.0%0.1%2.5%3.5%
16Getafe (4-9-5, 17 pts)9.817.710.539.80.0%0.0%0.1%30.9%
17Celta Vigo (4-9-5, 17 pts)10.417.010.641.80.0%0.0%0.6%22.2%
18Valladolid (5-11-2, 17 pts)10.819.77.540.00.0%0.0%0.0%34.8%
19Cadiz (3-8-7, 16 pts)8.317.212.537.30.0%0.0%0.0%58.4%
20Elche (0-12-6, 6 pts)4.921.911.125.90.0%0.0%0.0%97.6%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.