Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Las Palmas
Celta Vigo 		19.4%
56.6%		24.0%
+406
-129
+385
-130
0.88
1.69		2.57
o2¼-121
u2½-119
o2½+105
u2½-125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Osasuna
Rayo Vallecano 		29.3%
42.6%		28.1%
+284
+124
+256
+120
1.01
1.28		2.29
o2-101
u2-109
o2-105
u2-115
Betis
Valencia 		28.4%
45.3%		26.3%
+232
+140
+250
+135
1.09
1.44		2.53
o2¼+107
u2¼-121
o2-140
u2+120
Cadiz
Girona 		16.0%
61.0%		23.0%
+685
-228
+670
-240
0.77
1.77		2.54
o2¾-110
u3-137
o2½-140
u2½+120
Games for Apr 19, 2024
Games for Apr 21, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Granada
Athletic Club 		11.6%
69.5%		18.9%
+1015
-338
+1050
-360
2.84
o2¾-113
u2¾+100
o2½-140
u2½+125
2nd H
72:00		1
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Valencia
Osasuna		31.5%
40.2%		28.2%
+247
+144
+245
+140
1
0		-1.26972-1.27744-1.15410
Almeria
Real Sociedad		11.1%
70.9%		18.0%
+1140
-317
+1129
-350
2
2		-1.74200-1.74491-1.71663
Villarreal
Athletic Club		17.2%
60.6%		22.2%
+455
-156
+438
-135
1
1		-1.48939-1.42441-1.50602
Alaves
Granada		23.8%
49.8%		26.3%
+199
+205
+190
+200
0
2		-1.09991-1.10464-0.69647
Sevilla
Las Palmas		38.0%
32.2%		29.8%
+162
+195
+160
+189
2
0		-0.98216-0.99774-0.96856
Barcelona
Cadiz		71.5%
10.4%		18.1%
+107
+290
+110
+310
1
0		-0.74697-0.75184-0.33550
Real Madrid
Mallorca		75.5%
8.4%		16.0%
-122
+410
-125
+390
1
0		-0.61954-0.62085-0.28077
Getafe
Rayo Vallecano		29.1%
41.4%		29.5%
+274
+140
+273
+130
0
0		-1.14892-1.14097-1.22187
Girona
Atletico Madrid		9.6%
72.7%		17.7%
+309
-110
+290
+100
1
3		-0.67105-0.70917-0.31887
Celta Vigo
Betis		21.0%
55.4%		23.5%
+345
-106
+300
-105
1
2		-0.67984-0.70824-0.58989
Valencia
Granada		34.5%
37.3%		28.2%
+150
+225
+145
+215
1
0		-0.94112-0.94415-1.06328
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal		47.5%
26.2%		26.3%
+115
+255
+120
+210
2
1		-0.78239-0.83829-0.74535
Athletic Club
Real Madrid		10.4%
71.7%		17.9%
+499
-169
+475
-165
0
2		-0.48959-0.50785-0.33314
Real Sociedad
Alaves		45.4%
26.7%		28.0%
+122
+305
+120
+290
1
0		-0.82244-0.83718-0.79045
Betis
Girona		32.2%
40.1%		27.7%
+395
-136
+380
-135
2
3		-0.57313-0.58066-0.91502
Rayo Vallecano
Celta Vigo		21.1%
54.4%		24.4%
+347
-105
+340
-106
0
0		-1.29452-1.26954-1.40964
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

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+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/15/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (24-1-6, 78 pts)28.22.27.592.297.8%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Barcelona (21-3-7, 70 pts)24.94.58.783.22.2%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Girona (20-6-5, 65 pts)22.48.76.974.20.0%86.9%13.1%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (19-8-4, 61 pts)22.89.55.774.00.0%86.3%13.7%0.0%
5Athletic Club (16-6-9, 57 pts)19.37.810.968.80.0%26.9%73.0%0.0%
6Real Sociedad (13-7-11, 50 pts)15.49.613.059.20.0%0.0%68.4%0.0%
7Valencia (13-10-8, 47 pts)15.312.610.056.00.0%0.0%20.6%0.0%
8Betis (11-8-12, 45 pts)13.610.414.054.70.0%0.0%10.7%0.0%
9Villarreal (10-12-9, 39 pts)12.714.410.949.00.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
10Getafe (9-10-12, 39 pts)11.412.813.948.00.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
11Osasuna (11-14-6, 39 pts)13.316.78.047.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Las Palmas (10-14-7, 37 pts)12.316.79.145.90.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%
13Sevilla (8-13-10, 34 pts)10.515.512.043.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%
14Alaves (8-15-8, 32 pts)9.818.39.939.20.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%
15Mallorca (6-12-13, 31 pts)8.114.915.039.40.0%0.0%0.0%3.7%
16Rayo Vallecano (6-12-13, 31 pts)7.915.215.038.60.0%0.0%0.0%5.1%
17Celta Vigo (6-15-10, 28 pts)8.217.812.036.70.0%0.0%0.0%11.7%
18Cadiz (4-14-13, 25 pts)5.817.215.032.40.0%0.0%0.0%75.7%
19Granada (3-20-8, 17 pts)5.123.09.925.20.0%0.0%0.0%99.6%
20Almeria (1-19-11, 14 pts)2.922.113.021.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.