Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for January 26, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Leganes
Athletic Club 		8.0%
75.1%		16.9%
+914
-260
+975
-290
0.57
2.20		2.77
o2¼-118
u2½-122
o2½+110
u2½-125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Valencia
Barcelona 		7.5%
78.3%		14.1%
+1175
-440
+1200
-475
0.69
2.59		3.28
o3½+100
u3½-111
o3½-105
u3½-115
Games for Jan 25, 2025
Games for Jan 27, 2025

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Getafe
Real Sociedad 		15.0%
62.0%		23.0%
+443
-106
+470
-110
2.48
o1½-125
u1¾-122
o1½-125
u1½+120
TIME
HALF		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Girona
Rayo Vallecano		31.4%
40.5%		28.1%
+212
+157
+220
+155
1
2		-0.97559-0.96811-0.90352
Real Madrid
Valladolid		75.5%
8.8%		15.7%
-427
+1275
-450
+1225
3
0		-0.23592-0.24163-0.28166
Espanyol
Sevilla		17.1%
60.1%		22.8%
+415
-130
+435
-135
1
1		-1.31946-1.32950-1.47889
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid		11.7%
70.3%		18.0%
+305
+101
+320
-105
1
1		-1.30291-1.34838-1.71313
Betis
Mallorca		33.2%
38.2%		28.6%
+315
+122
+305
+115
1
0		-1.45308-1.43784-1.10301
Osasuna
Las Palmas		32.8%
37.6%		29.6%
+219
+146
+200
+150
1
1		-1.20381-1.19696-1.21740
Mallorca
Villarreal		20.5%
55.7%		23.8%
+460
-144
+475
-145
0
4		-0.55544-0.54644-0.58465
Real Sociedad
Valencia		35.8%
35.1%		29.1%
+167
+225
+165
+205
0
1		-1.20534-1.16398-1.04768
Rayo Vallecano
Osasuna		23.4%
50.7%		25.9%
+250
+132
+245
+130
1
1		-1.18104-1.18866-1.35097
Las Palmas
Real Madrid		4.5%
84.7%		10.8%
+1650
-584
+1650
-690
1
4		-0.18970-0.18111-0.16598
Athletic Club
Celta Vigo		34.5%
36.4%		29.1%
+133
+240
+180
+223
2
1		-0.87187-1.00373-1.06398
Barcelona
Getafe		62.2%
15.5%		22.3%
-205
+640
-225
+660
1
1		-1.55898-1.56647-1.49973
Alaves
Betis		22.8%
51.6%		25.6%
+370
-115
+400
-120
3
1		-1.57881-1.63619-1.47907
Atletico Madrid
Leganes		67.9%
11.8%		20.4%
-185
+630
-200
+635
0
1		-2.01801-2.04030-2.14123
Sevilla
Girona		24.2%
49.5%		26.3%
+337
-108
+355
-115
2
1		-1.50409-1.55471-1.41894
Valladolid
Espanyol		25.7%
48.1%		26.2%
+440
-122
+430
-130
1
2		-0.62131-0.61745-0.73251
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.84366 
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.84641 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.88802
-0.04437
-0.04161

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/20/25
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (14-2-4, 46 pts)25.05.18.082.977.8%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Atletico Madrid (13-2-5, 44 pts)22.26.29.676.214.7%99.5%0.4%0.0%
3Barcelona (12-5-3, 39 pts)21.88.77.572.87.1%97.1%2.9%0.0%
4Athletic Club (11-3-6, 39 pts)18.68.211.267.00.3%83.2%14.2%0.0%
5Villarreal (9-5-6, 33 pts)15.511.511.157.50.1%9.3%54.8%0.0%
6Mallorca (9-8-3, 30 pts)14.515.38.251.80.0%1.3%17.0%1.0%
7Real Sociedad (8-8-4, 28 pts)15.313.79.054.90.0%5.6%40.7%0.1%
8Girona (8-8-4, 28 pts)14.214.79.151.70.0%2.2%17.5%0.4%
9Rayo Vallecano (6-6-8, 26 pts)11.313.513.247.20.0%0.2%6.4%5.4%
10Osasuna (6-6-8, 26 pts)12.013.013.048.90.0%0.4%7.3%3.0%
11Sevilla (7-8-5, 26 pts)13.214.99.949.40.0%0.5%8.7%2.5%
12Betis (6-7-7, 25 pts)12.613.312.049.90.0%0.3%12.6%1.7%
13Celta Vigo (7-10-3, 24 pts)13.716.18.249.40.0%0.4%13.4%3.0%
14Las Palmas (6-10-4, 22 pts)11.317.88.942.70.0%0.0%0.8%21.4%
15Leganes (5-8-7, 22 pts)9.416.911.739.80.0%0.0%0.2%41.0%
16Getafe (4-8-8, 20 pts)9.815.212.942.50.0%0.0%1.3%20.5%
17Alaves (5-10-5, 20 pts)11.116.910.143.30.0%0.0%1.7%16.8%
18Espanyol (5-11-4, 19 pts)9.919.48.738.30.0%0.0%0.0%54.5%
19Valencia (3-10-7, 16 pts)9.116.912.139.30.0%0.0%0.1%42.0%
20Valladolid (4-13-3, 15 pts)8.621.67.833.50.0%0.0%0.0%86.7%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.