Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 4, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Real Madrid
Athletic Club 		49.6%
24.3%		26.1%
+132
+218
+130
+212
1.50
0.96		2.46
o2½-112
u2½+104
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Dec 3, 2024
Games for Dec 6, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Barcelona
Mallorca		61.3%
16.5%		22.2%
-157
+470
-165
+480
5
1		-0.51587-0.51199-0.48946
Osasuna
Sevilla		17.8%
58.5%		23.7%
+304
+103
+305
+100
1
1		-1.27211-1.27447-1.43948
Betis
Real Sociedad		20.9%
55.0%		24.1%
+497
-142
+450
-145
0
2		-0.55384-0.56405-0.59831
Athletic Club
Rayo Vallecano		48.0%
25.0%		27.0%
+152
+235
+145
+235
2
1		-0.94202-0.93006-0.73403
Getafe
Real Madrid		4.8%
83.2%		12.0%
+1000
-290
+1025
-300
0
2		-0.32164-0.32584-0.18425
Girona
Villarreal		24.4%
50.8%		24.8%
+357
-124
+351
-135
2
2		-1.39897-1.41227-1.39292
Atletico Madrid
Valladolid		64.8%
14.2%		21.0%
-211
+675
-230
+680
5
0		-0.41250-0.40971-0.43400
Celta Vigo
Espanyol		34.5%
37.2%		28.3%
+123
+278
+120
+260
1
3		-1.34561-1.32017-0.98902
Leganes
Alaves		13.2%
64.8%		22.0%
+480
-120
+470
-125
1
1		-1.19307-1.20574-1.51554
Las Palmas
Barcelona		5.4%
82.4%		12.1%
+1850
-643
+1950
-750
2
1		-2.99214-3.05676-2.91139
Valencia
Mallorca		31.5%
39.8%		28.7%
+355
+118
+380
+115
1
2		-0.80827-0.78358-0.92171
Real Sociedad
Athletic Club		19.0%
56.5%		24.5%
+270
+139
+260
+140
0
1		-0.89857-0.90835-0.57104
Real Madrid
Leganes		79.0%
6.7%		14.3%
-273
+940
-260
+840
3
0		-0.33048-0.35362-0.23596
Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla		17.4%
59.5%		23.1%
+305
+108
+310
+105
0
1		-0.75394-0.75649-0.51923
Villarreal
Osasuna		35.4%
36.3%		28.3%
+177
+168
+170
+155
2
2		-1.24744-1.28942-1.26312
Barcelona
Celta Vigo		57.8%
19.5%		22.7%
-137
+360
-145
+345
2
2		-1.48625-1.50657-1.48122
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.51587 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.51199 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.48946
0.02641
0.02253

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 12/02/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Barcelona (11-3-1, 34 pts)23.67.96.577.426.2%99.7%0.3%0.0%
2Real Madrid (10-1-3, 33 pts)24.95.08.182.966.6%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Atletico Madrid (9-1-5, 32 pts)20.66.510.972.86.9%96.5%3.0%0.0%
4Athletic Club (7-3-5, 26 pts)17.19.611.362.60.2%54.9%31.3%0.0%
5Villarreal (7-2-5, 26 pts)15.710.511.859.00.0%24.5%39.1%0.0%
6Mallorca (7-5-3, 24 pts)14.214.29.652.30.0%3.4%20.3%0.8%
7Osasuna (6-4-5, 23 pts)12.913.811.350.10.0%2.3%10.6%2.5%
8Girona (6-5-4, 22 pts)14.013.710.352.30.0%4.4%21.7%1.2%
9Real Sociedad (6-6-3, 21 pts)14.913.49.754.50.0%9.0%31.2%0.6%
10Betis (5-5-5, 20 pts)12.813.911.449.60.1%1.8%10.9%2.7%
11Sevilla (5-6-4, 19 pts)13.214.410.450.00.0%1.7%9.9%3.1%
12Celta Vigo (5-7-3, 18 pts)13.115.39.648.90.0%1.0%10.2%4.2%
13Rayo Vallecano (4-6-4, 16 pts)10.916.410.743.50.0%0.0%2.7%19.0%
14Las Palmas (4-8-3, 15 pts)10.617.99.541.30.0%0.0%1.0%28.2%
15Leganes (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.317.811.936.80.0%0.0%0.2%63.4%
16Alaves (4-9-2, 14 pts)11.817.78.543.90.0%0.3%2.9%18.4%
17Getafe (2-6-7, 13 pts)9.215.313.441.20.0%0.3%0.3%30.3%
18Espanyol (4-9-1, 13 pts)11.319.27.441.50.0%0.0%0.8%32.7%
19Valencia (2-7-4, 10 pts)11.115.910.944.40.0%0.3%3.5%14.1%
20Valladolid (2-10-3, 9 pts)8.320.59.234.10.0%0.0%0.0%78.8%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.