Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 17, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Real Sociedad
Mallorca 		38.6%
31.9%		29.5%
+189
+197
+195
+187
1.14
1.01		2.15
o1¾-115
u1¾+104

Games for Sep 16, 2024
Games for Sep 18, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Osasuna
Rayo Vallecano		26.6%
46.3%		27.1%
+315
+110
+305
+110
1
3		-0.77115-0.78169-0.76962
Valencia
Atletico Madrid		11.4%
70.0%		18.6%
+971
-258
+1000
-278
0
3		-0.33613-0.32397-0.35716
Athletic Club
Las Palmas		50.1%
23.1%		26.8%
+105
+302
+105
+287
3
2		-0.74394-0.75739-0.69023
Barcelona
Girona		52.6%
22.7%		24.7%
-131
+345
-133
+330
4
1		-0.59560-0.60132-0.64236
Valladolid
Celta Vigo		20.3%
56.0%		23.7%
+452
-147
+425
-150
1
3		-0.53895-0.55417-0.57969
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad		59.9%
17.5%		22.5%
-125
+390
-125
+375
2
0		-0.61236-0.62001-0.51188
Getafe
Sevilla		20.2%
53.6%		26.2%
+283
+126
+275
+125
0
1		-0.84118-0.84917-0.62291
Alaves
Espanyol		28.8%
43.0%		28.3%
+170
+201
+165
+197
2
3		-1.12476-1.13485-0.84488
Villarreal
Mallorca		36.7%
34.8%		28.5%
+231
+137
+225
+135
2
1		-1.22370-1.20989-1.00185
Leganes
Betis		13.6%
65.9%		20.6%
+533
-146
+530
-148
0
2		-0.54685-0.54166-0.41767
Betis
Real Madrid		5.6%
82.8%		11.7%
+1250
-360
+1150
-400
0
2		-0.26066-0.25418-0.18919
Real Sociedad
Getafe		38.5%
31.4%		30.1%
+186
+215
+181
+210
0
0		-1.06514-1.06459-1.20071
Girona
Sevilla		26.7%
45.9%		27.4%
+147
+187
+150
+178
2
0		-0.92052-0.94582-1.32088
Celta Vigo
Osasuna		30.3%
41.7%		28.0%
+203
+153
+190
+155
2
3		-0.95615-0.97979-0.87364
Las Palmas
Alaves		22.2%
51.1%		26.6%
+458
-125
+420
-130
0
2		-0.59949-0.60450-0.67058
Mallorca
Leganes		33.8%
35.1%		31.1%
+213
+190
+202
+183
1
0		-1.16861-1.14000-1.08391
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.77115 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.78169 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.76962
0.00153
0.01207

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 09/01/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Barcelona (4-0-0, 12 pts)22.37.28.575.440.1%96.8%2.9%0.0%
2Real Madrid (2-0-2, 8 pts)22.16.19.776.149.3%97.2%2.0%0.0%
3Atletico Madrid (2-0-2, 8 pts)19.08.210.867.98.7%82.2%11.3%0.0%
4Villarreal (2-0-2, 8 pts)14.312.111.654.60.3%15.8%23.0%2.1%
5Girona (2-1-1, 7 pts)14.513.010.654.00.3%16.8%23.5%3.1%
6Alaves (2-1-1, 7 pts)12.415.110.547.80.0%3.9%9.0%12.7%
7Osasuna (2-1-1, 7 pts)12.415.210.347.60.0%3.8%8.1%15.2%
8Celta Vigo (2-2-0, 6 pts)13.015.59.548.60.0%4.2%9.8%10.5%
9Leganes (1-1-2, 5 pts)9.417.710.939.00.0%0.5%1.0%55.0%
10Mallorca (1-1-2, 5 pts)11.115.411.544.80.2%1.8%5.9%23.9%
11Real Sociedad (1-2-1, 4 pts)14.712.810.454.60.6%18.7%23.1%2.4%
12Rayo Vallecano (1-2-1, 4 pts)11.316.310.344.30.0%2.1%3.9%24.7%
13Espanyol (1-2-1, 4 pts)11.216.510.343.80.0%1.1%4.0%27.6%
14Athletic Club (1-2-1, 4 pts)16.011.710.358.30.5%36.3%26.5%1.0%
15Valladolid (1-2-1, 4 pts)11.216.510.343.90.0%1.3%3.9%28.4%
16Getafe (0-0-3, 3 pts)11.513.812.847.20.0%4.3%9.4%14.5%
17Betis (0-1-2, 2 pts)12.014.211.947.70.0%4.2%9.8%14.0%
18Sevilla (0-2-2, 2 pts)12.314.011.748.50.0%4.4%10.4%9.8%
19Las Palmas (0-2-2, 2 pts)9.916.711.441.20.0%0.5%2.1%42.3%
20Valencia (0-3-1, 1 pts)12.515.110.447.90.0%4.1%10.4%12.8%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.