Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for June 4, 2023

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal 		28.7%
43.9%		27.3%
+156
+174
+145
+170
1.03
1.35		2.38
o3-101
u3-113
o3-105
u3-115
Athletic Club
Real Madrid 		10.9%
70.7%		18.4%
+266
-102
+255
-105
0.71
2.15		2.86
o2¾-122
u3-127
o3+110
u3-130
Rayo Vallecano
Mallorca 		29.2%
42.3%		28.6%
+140
+213
+130
+215
0.98
1.25		2.23
o2¼-112
u2½-133
o2½+120
u2½-140
Volatility Bet Value Active
Sevilla
Real Sociedad 		25.9%
46.8%		27.3%
+370
-131
+350
-140
0.95
1.38		2.33
o2½-122
u2¾-118
o2½-120
u2½+105
Girona
Osasuna 		25.1%
47.7%		27.1%
+250
+115
+240
+110
0.94
1.40		2.34
o2½-110
u2½-102
o2½-115
u2½-105
Barcelona
Celta Vigo 		60.1%
17.8%		22.1%
+152
+171
+145
+165
1.88
0.92		2.80
o2½-135
u2¾-115
o2½-135
u2½+115
Cadiz
Elche 		28.2%
42.7%		29.1%
+168
+171
+165
+160
0.93
1.22		2.15
o2½-115
u2½+102
o2½-115
u2½+100
Almeria
Espanyol 		25.9%
47.1%		27.0%
+140
+185
+130
+185
0.97
1.40		2.37
o3-123
u3+114
o3-130
u3+115
Getafe
Valladolid 		23.9%
48.5%		27.6%
+252
+121
+240
+120
0.88
1.37		2.25
o2¼-105
u2½-146
o2-145
u2½-150
Valencia
Betis 		29.5%
44.5%		26.0%
+148
+180
+145
+175
1.13
1.46		2.59
o2¾-115
u3-137
o2½-140
u2½+125
Games for Jun 3, 2023
Games for Jun 5, 2023

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Mallorca
Barcelona		5.4%
82.5%		12.1%
+1182
-380
+1180
-435
0
3		-0.25872-0.25810-0.19283
Celta Vigo
Cadiz		35.3%
34.9%		29.8%
+219
+164
+200
+155
0
1		-0.98862-0.98808-1.05294
Villarreal
Rayo Vallecano		48.9%
25.5%		25.6%
+129
+210
+125
+190
1
2		-1.14759-1.11581-1.36751
Espanyol
Valencia		14.9%
64.3%		20.8%
+281
+110
+320
-110
2
2		-1.28096-1.31983-1.57041
Elche
Athletic Club		9.4%
72.9%		17.8%
+739
-250
+720
-275
1
0		-2.15253-2.14892-2.36723
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid		16.0%
61.4%		22.5%
+259
+134
+240
+130
1
2		-0.86365-0.87347-0.48740
Betis
Girona		33.6%
38.2%		28.2%
+310
-100
+285
-105
2
1		-1.43096-1.40031-1.09136
Valladolid
Almeria		26.7%
46.3%		27.0%
+239
+128
+235
+115
0
0		-1.27189-1.30092-1.30796
Osasuna
Getafe		30.7%
39.2%		30.1%
+267
+154
+235
+145
1
2		-0.94788-0.94631-0.93558
Real Madrid
Sevilla		55.2%
20.1%		24.7%
+127
+217
+125
+205
2
1		-0.85149-0.86353-0.59404
Athletic Club
Osasuna		40.6%
30.5%		28.9%
+142
+223
+120
+240
0
2		-1.19534-1.27418-1.18826
Valencia
Mallorca		41.5%
30.4%		28.1%
+175
+211
+155
+225
0
1		-1.15296-1.21675-1.19000
Getafe
Betis		16.0%
61.9%		22.1%
+281
+135
+260
+130
1
0		-1.35763-1.33120-1.83196
Atletico Madrid
Espanyol		54.1%
20.4%		25.5%
+145
+205
+130
+215
3
3		-1.29869-1.25846-1.36830
Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid		5.4%
82.6%		12.0%
+705
-245
+600
-245
1
2		-0.36612-0.39020-0.19115
Cadiz
Villarreal		8.6%
75.6%		15.8%
+549
-195
+560
-210
0
2		-0.42817-0.43703-0.27989
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/28/23
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Barcelona (28-5-4, 88 pts)28.65.24.290.1100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Real Madrid (24-8-5, 77 pts)24.48.35.378.60.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Atletico Madrid (23-7-7, 76 pts)23.47.37.377.60.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Real Sociedad (20-9-8, 68 pts)20.39.48.369.10.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
5Villarreal (19-12-6, 63 pts)19.312.46.364.10.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Betis (17-12-8, 59 pts)17.312.48.360.10.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
7Athletic Club (14-15-8, 50 pts)14.315.48.351.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Osasuna (14-15-8, 50 pts)14.315.48.351.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Girona (13-14-10, 49 pts)13.414.310.350.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Rayo Vallecano (13-14-10, 49 pts)13.414.310.350.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sevilla (13-14-10, 49 pts)13.414.310.350.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Mallorca (13-16-8, 47 pts)13.316.48.348.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Valencia (11-18-8, 41 pts)11.418.38.342.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Getafe (10-16-11, 41 pts)10.416.311.342.50.0%0.0%0.0%2.0%
15Cadiz (10-16-11, 41 pts)10.416.311.342.60.0%0.0%0.0%1.5%
16Celta Vigo (10-17-10, 40 pts)10.217.610.240.70.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%
17Almeria (11-19-7, 40 pts)11.419.37.341.50.0%0.0%0.0%12.0%
18Valladolid (11-20-6, 39 pts)11.320.46.340.20.0%0.0%0.0%70.1%
19Espanyol (8-17-12, 36 pts)8.317.412.337.20.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Elche (5-23-9, 24 pts)5.323.49.325.10.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.