Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 18, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Cadiz
Espanyol 		24.5%
50.6%		24.9%
+498
-149
+490
-150
0.78
1.60		2.38
o2¼-105
u2¼-105
o2-145
u2+130
Games for Oct 17, 2021
Games for Oct 22, 2021

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
Line		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Betis
Alaves 		43.0%
30.7%		26.3%
+124
+265
+115
+260
2.49
o2¼-116
u2¼+105
o2-140
u2½-135
TIME
HALF		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Valencia
Barcelona		12.3%
78.8%		8.9%
+504
-175
+560
-210
1
3		-0.46746-0.43936-0.23818
Osasuna
Villarreal		19.6%
64.0%		16.3%
+598
-150
+580
-190
2
1		-1.92538-1.96198-1.62719
Sevilla
Celta Vigo		43.8%
29.8%		26.5%
+182
+215
+170
+180
1
0		-1.02218-1.04214-0.82590
Elche
Rayo Vallecano		28.4%
44.8%		26.8%
+406
-105
+360
-115
1
2		-0.66873-0.67525-0.80225
Mallorca
Real Sociedad		16.2%
68.7%		15.1%
+686
-200
+675
-210
0
1		-0.43104-0.43858-0.37573
Getafe
Levante		31.7%
39.5%		28.8%
+260
+145
+275
+135
0
0		-1.11880-1.13625-1.03854
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.46746 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.43936 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.23818
0.22928
0.20118

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 10/17/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Sociedad (6-1-2, 20 pts)18.49.89.865.13.5%41.8%37.2%0.0%
2Real Madrid (5-1-2, 17 pts)22.07.09.074.935.8%90.9%7.9%0.0%
3Sevilla (5-1-2, 17 pts)18.89.39.966.45.3%53.1%34.3%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (5-1-2, 17 pts)20.97.69.572.318.5%83.3%14.1%0.0%
5Osasuna (5-2-2, 17 pts)14.114.09.852.30.0%2.6%11.3%1.4%
6Rayo Vallecano (5-3-1, 16 pts)12.317.38.445.40.0%0.5%1.6%9.9%
7Barcelona (4-1-3, 15 pts)21.96.59.775.335.9%91.3%7.7%0.0%
8Athletic Club (3-1-4, 13 pts)13.512.112.452.80.0%4.1%12.7%0.9%
9Betis (3-2-3, 12 pts)14.512.211.354.70.0%6.3%19.6%0.8%
10Valencia (3-3-3, 12 pts)11.915.111.046.80.0%0.4%3.7%6.5%
11Villarreal (2-1-5, 11 pts)16.18.912.961.31.0%24.8%42.3%0.0%
12Mallorca (3-4-2, 11 pts)10.517.89.641.20.0%0.1%0.6%29.6%
13Espanyol (2-3-3, 9 pts)11.315.411.345.10.0%0.4%2.2%11.8%
14Elche (2-4-3, 9 pts)9.218.210.538.20.0%0.0%0.2%43.8%
15Cadiz (1-3-4, 7 pts)8.617.611.937.60.0%0.0%0.0%49.1%
16Celta Vigo (2-6-1, 7 pts)11.617.29.244.10.0%0.2%1.6%14.2%
17Granada (1-4-3, 6 pts)11.215.411.445.10.0%0.1%2.5%11.5%
18Levante (0-4-5, 5 pts)9.016.112.940.00.0%0.1%0.3%31.1%
19Alaves (1-6-0, 3 pts)9.220.58.335.80.0%0.0%0.0%62.3%
20Getafe (0-7-2, 2 pts)10.217.510.340.90.0%0.0%0.2%27.1%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.