Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 1, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Almeria
Celta Vigo
18.3%
59.2%
22.6%
+362
-125

0.90
1.84
2.74
o2½-104
u2½-105

Games for Feb 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Rayo Vallecano
Girona
21.4%
53.7%
24.9%
+448
-152
+410
-158
0
3
-0.52902-0.53863-0.62252
Sevilla
Real Madrid
6.6%
79.5%
13.9%
+922
-345
+950
-366
0
1
-0.28590-0.28140-0.22949
Osasuna
Las Palmas
31.1%
39.6%
29.3%
+236
+148
+227
+140
1
1
-1.14791-1.16427-1.22881
Athletic Club
Betis
34.9%
36.4%
28.8%
+112
+303
+110
+285
1
3
-1.41022-1.38806-1.01198
Celta Vigo
Cadiz
38.6%
32.2%
29.2%
+150
+236
+155
+210
2
2
-1.13585-1.14555-1.23182
Atletico Madrid
Almeria
62.8%
15.3%
21.8%
-130
+450
-152
+500
2
2
-1.39634-1.43389-1.52152
Mallorca
Alaves
23.9%
48.5%
27.6%
+441
-105
+425
-120
1
1
-1.16832-1.20164-1.28797
Getafe
Barcelona
7.2%
77.7%
15.1%
+685
-237
+660
-253
0
4
-0.38144-0.38025-0.25216
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
19.9%
56.9%
23.1%
+484
-152
+450
-155
3
1
-1.78290-1.74669-1.61234
Girona
Athletic Club
14.7%
63.5%
21.8%
+346
-116
+335
-120
2
3
-0.64785-0.64729-0.45378
Alaves
Betis
12.8%
67.6%
19.6%
+236
+144
+235
+135
0
0
-1.17639-1.17697-1.63087
Real Sociedad
Mallorca
48.0%
24.8%
27.2%
+142
+289
+150
+263
2
1
-0.90473-0.95852-0.73353
Almeria
Granada
22.2%
53.3%
24.4%
+251
+124
+250
+120
1
1
-1.26143-1.25124-1.40944
Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
72.3%
10.3%
17.4%
-146
+465
-150
+450
1
1
-1.40846-1.42520-1.75106
Sevilla
Valencia
27.1%
45.7%
27.2%
+257
+131
+245
+127
0
0
-1.18833-1.19412-1.30217
Barcelona
Celta Vigo
59.6%
18.1%
22.4%
-102
+295
-103
+280
2
1
-0.70233-0.71164-0.51819
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.52902 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.53863 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.62252
-0.09350
-0.08389

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/26/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (18-1-4, 58 pts)27.43.57.189.392.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Girona (17-1-5, 56 pts)21.77.29.174.10.8%79.7%20.1%0.0%
3Barcelona (15-3-5, 50 pts)23.56.08.579.05.3%96.5%3.4%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (15-5-3, 48 pts)23.08.46.675.50.9%89.5%10.4%0.0%
5Athletic Club (13-4-6, 45 pts)19.38.510.268.10.1%31.4%64.6%0.0%
6Real Sociedad (9-4-10, 37 pts)15.18.814.159.50.0%1.7%50.7%0.0%
7Valencia (10-8-5, 35 pts)15.313.49.355.10.0%0.4%14.9%0.0%
8Betis (8-4-11, 35 pts)14.28.615.257.90.0%0.8%32.8%0.0%
9Las Palmas (9-9-5, 32 pts)13.015.99.148.10.0%0.0%0.9%0.1%
10Getafe (7-7-9, 30 pts)11.912.913.249.00.0%0.0%2.0%0.0%
11Alaves (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.217.89.142.60.0%0.0%0.1%3.2%
12Osasuna (7-11-5, 26 pts)12.116.69.245.60.0%0.0%0.1%1.5%
13Rayo Vallecano (5-9-9, 24 pts)9.715.113.242.20.0%0.0%0.0%4.3%
14Villarreal (6-11-6, 24 pts)11.516.410.044.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%
15Sevilla (4-11-8, 20 pts)9.316.512.340.00.0%0.0%0.0%7.9%
16Celta Vigo (4-11-8, 20 pts)9.016.812.239.30.0%0.0%0.0%10.4%
17Mallorca (3-9-11, 20 pts)7.215.815.036.50.0%0.0%0.0%23.3%
18Cadiz (2-10-11, 17 pts)5.717.514.831.90.0%0.0%0.0%69.7%
19Granada (2-15-6, 12 pts)6.721.210.130.10.0%0.0%0.0%79.6%
20Almeria (0-17-6, 6 pts)4.123.910.022.20.0%0.0%0.0%98.9%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.