Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 6, 2023

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Almeria
Athletic Club 		10.9%
70.8%		18.4%
+700
-243
+645
-245
0.70
2.16		2.86
o3+104
u3-120
o3+100
u3-120
Games for Oct 5, 2023
Games for Oct 7, 2023

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Celta Vigo
Las Palmas		35.7%
34.9%		29.4%
+168
+195
+165
+190
1
2		-1.11097-1.11152-1.05331
Cadiz
Atletico Madrid		7.3%
76.7%		16.0%
+910
-294
+950
-315
2
3		-0.32609-0.31949-0.26589
Valencia
Betis		22.4%
53.5%		24.0%
+300
+111
+285
+115
0
3		-0.76716-0.79297-0.62554
Osasuna
Alaves		37.7%
32.5%		29.8%
+225
+154
+220
+160
2
0		-1.20751-1.19313-0.97479
Granada
Almeria		30.4%
42.2%		27.4%
+290
-105
+290
-110
3
3		-1.35642-1.36156-1.29539
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad		26.4%
46.0%		27.6%
+266
+128
+247
+130
0
3		-0.85600-0.87254-0.77631
Real Madrid
Girona		72.7%
10.1%		17.2%
-114
+300
-110
+275
3
0		-0.66196-0.68631-0.31843
Mallorca
Rayo Vallecano		15.9%
61.5%		22.6%
+345
+103
+324
+105
2
2		-1.21409-1.17883-1.48824
Villarreal
Getafe		44.2%
28.0%		27.7%
+182
+178
+175
+175
0
0		-1.17869-1.18228-1.28219
Sevilla
Barcelona		13.0%
67.2%		19.7%
+726
-275
+825
-293
0
1		-0.33662-0.32083-0.39712
Atletico Madrid
Osasuna		44.7%
27.2%		28.1%
-101
+335
-103
+310
2
0		-0.70138-0.71480-0.80500
Alaves
Celta Vigo		18.4%
57.8%		23.7%
+580
-162
+505
-160
1
1		-1.37290-1.37397-1.43957
Betis
Granada		42.4%
30.6%		26.9%
+160
+187
+161
+185
1
1		-1.26104-1.25152-1.31171
Rayo Vallecano
Cadiz		35.9%
33.9%		30.2%
+200
+167
+195
+162
0
0		-1.16139-1.17154-1.19859
Real Sociedad
Valencia		29.5%
43.0%		27.5%
+225
+158
+220
+145
1
0		-1.20051-1.21053-1.22105
Girona
Villarreal		9.5%
74.4%		16.0%
+232
+120
+230
+114
2
1		-1.22567-1.23371-2.35188
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 10/02/23
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (7-1-0, 21 pts)24.26.97.079.556.7%98.9%0.9%0.0%
2Barcelona (6-0-2, 20 pts)22.16.49.575.733.0%96.3%3.1%0.0%
3Girona (6-1-1, 19 pts)14.314.49.352.20.1%5.8%13.8%1.7%
4Atletico Madrid (5-1-1, 16 pts)19.98.89.369.08.8%81.0%12.5%0.0%
5Real Sociedad (4-1-3, 15 pts)16.310.311.460.40.6%35.8%31.2%0.1%
6Athletic Club (4-2-2, 14 pts)16.311.310.459.20.6%30.3%29.2%0.2%
7Betis (3-2-3, 12 pts)15.011.611.356.50.2%15.0%26.3%0.8%
8Rayo Vallecano (3-2-3, 12 pts)12.713.711.649.60.0%2.6%9.2%4.4%
9Osasuna (3-4-1, 10 pts)13.614.79.750.60.0%3.9%11.5%3.2%
10Valencia (3-4-1, 10 pts)13.914.59.551.30.0%4.9%12.1%2.7%
11Getafe (2-3-3, 9 pts)11.814.811.446.70.0%1.1%5.0%9.8%
12Cadiz (2-3-3, 9 pts)10.416.611.142.20.0%0.7%1.1%27.3%
13Las Palmas (2-4-2, 8 pts)10.117.810.140.30.0%0.1%0.6%36.8%
14Villarreal (2-4-2, 8 pts)14.912.810.354.90.0%12.9%22.6%0.3%
15Sevilla (2-4-1, 7 pts)14.613.89.653.30.0%10.0%18.1%1.5%
16Mallorca (1-3-4, 7 pts)8.617.212.238.10.0%0.1%0.3%48.8%
17Alaves (2-5-1, 7 pts)10.118.79.239.60.0%0.2%0.4%41.8%
18Celta Vigo (1-5-2, 5 pts)10.816.710.543.00.0%0.2%1.4%22.3%
19Granada (1-5-2, 5 pts)9.718.010.239.50.0%0.2%0.6%40.2%
20Almeria (0-5-3, 3 pts)8.318.511.236.10.0%0.0%0.1%58.1%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.