Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 26, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad 		55.0%
20.7%		24.3%
+170
+180
+170
+170
1.67
0.92		2.59
o2¼-114
u2¼+100
o2½+115
u2½-130
Games for Apr 25, 2024
Games for Apr 27, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Real Madrid
Mallorca		75.5%
8.4%		16.0%
-122
+410
-125
+390
1
0		-0.61954-0.62085-0.28077
Getafe
Rayo Vallecano		29.1%
41.4%		29.5%
+274
+140
+273
+130
0
0		-1.14892-1.14097-1.22187
Girona
Atletico Madrid		9.6%
72.7%		17.7%
+309
-110
+290
+100
1
3		-0.67105-0.70917-0.31887
Celta Vigo
Betis		21.0%
55.4%		23.5%
+345
-106
+300
-105
1
2		-0.67984-0.70824-0.58989
Valencia
Granada		34.5%
37.3%		28.2%
+150
+225
+145
+215
1
0		-0.94112-0.94415-1.06328
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal		47.5%
26.2%		26.3%
+115
+255
+120
+210
2
1		-0.78239-0.83829-0.74535
Athletic Club
Real Madrid		10.4%
71.7%		17.9%
+499
-169
+475
-165
0
2		-0.48959-0.50785-0.33314
Real Sociedad
Alaves		45.4%
26.7%		28.0%
+122
+305
+120
+290
1
0		-0.82244-0.83718-0.79045
Betis
Girona		32.2%
40.1%		27.7%
+395
-136
+380
-135
2
3		-0.57313-0.58066-0.91502
Rayo Vallecano
Celta Vigo		21.1%
54.4%		24.4%
+347
-105
+340
-106
0
0		-1.29452-1.26954-1.40964
Las Palmas
Barcelona		5.5%
82.2%		12.3%
+975
-363
+925
-390
0
1		-0.26927-0.26904-0.19574
Mallorca
Valencia		15.6%
62.4%		22.0%
+325
+118
+320
+120
0
0		-1.13900-1.10151-1.51554
Osasuna
Almeria		32.9%
38.5%		28.6%
+201
+153
+190
+160
3
0		-1.13109-1.09934-1.11112
Sevilla
Getafe		31.5%
37.9%		30.6%
+205
+169
+205
+160
1
0		-1.14122-1.14662-1.15490
Granada
Cadiz		33.4%
37.2%		29.4%
+410
-109
+390
+100
0
1		-0.66963-0.70023-0.98883
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid		31.0%
40.6%		28.4%
+223
+127
+201
+130
3
0		-1.19703-1.14948-1.17092
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/22/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (25-1-6, 81 pts)28.91.97.294.099.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Barcelona (21-4-7, 70 pts)24.45.18.481.70.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Girona (21-6-5, 68 pts)23.18.36.675.90.0%97.9%2.1%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (19-9-4, 61 pts)22.110.35.671.90.0%78.1%21.9%0.0%
5Athletic Club (16-6-10, 58 pts)18.77.611.667.90.0%23.9%75.9%0.0%
6Real Sociedad (13-7-12, 51 pts)14.99.413.758.40.0%0.1%64.0%0.0%
7Betis (12-8-12, 48 pts)14.110.213.756.00.0%0.0%20.9%0.0%
8Valencia (13-11-8, 47 pts)15.113.29.754.90.0%0.0%15.0%0.0%
9Villarreal (11-12-9, 42 pts)13.114.310.649.90.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Getafe (9-10-13, 40 pts)11.112.214.648.00.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
11Osasuna (11-15-6, 39 pts)12.817.57.746.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Sevilla (9-13-10, 37 pts)11.215.111.745.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Las Palmas (10-15-7, 37 pts)11.917.48.844.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
14Alaves (9-15-8, 35 pts)10.717.79.641.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%
15Rayo Vallecano (7-12-13, 34 pts)8.714.714.640.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%
16Celta Vigo (7-15-10, 31 pts)8.917.411.738.40.0%0.0%0.0%3.1%
17Mallorca (6-13-13, 31 pts)7.915.514.738.20.0%0.0%0.0%4.4%
18Cadiz (4-15-13, 25 pts)5.617.814.731.40.0%0.0%0.0%91.1%
19Granada (3-20-9, 18 pts)4.822.610.625.00.0%0.0%0.0%99.9%
20Almeria (1-20-11, 14 pts)2.822.612.720.90.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.