English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 8, 2023

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Leeds United
Manchester United 		7.6%
78.7%		13.7%
+512
-192

0.72
2.67		3.39
o3+102
u3-119

Games for Feb 7, 2023
Games for Feb 11, 2023

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Manchester City
Tottenham 		64.5%
15.8%		19.6%
-110
+317
-110
+325
3.13
o3+130
u2¾-105
o2½-140
u3-135
1st H
05:00		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Leeds United
Nottingham Forest		24.5%
49.6%		25.9%
+166
+185
+168
+175
0
1		-1.06804-1.04370-0.70080
West Ham United
Newcastle United		21.1%
55.4%		23.5%
+480
-144
+480
-157
1
1		-1.37980-1.38043-1.44817
Southampton
Brentford		19.7%
57.8%		22.5%
+400
-128
+415
-140
0
3		-0.60501-0.58427-0.54789
Crystal Palace
Manchester United		8.5%
76.0%		15.5%
+825
-260
+790
-270
1
2		-0.34889-0.36021-0.27431
Bournemouth
Brighton and Hove Albion		10.3%
71.7%		18.0%
+737
-245
+835
-270
0
1		-0.36111-0.34732-0.33236
Liverpool
Wolverhampton		60.3%
17.0%		22.7%
-104
+305
-112
+310
0
3		-1.41704-1.44575-1.77166
Leicester City
Aston Villa		18.7%
60.0%		21.3%
+266
+117
+280
+110
4
2		-1.31625-1.35197-1.67718
Arsenal
Everton		52.0%
23.6%		24.4%
-205
+751
-225
+703
0
1		-2.14140-2.12151-1.44460
Fulham
Chelsea		8.0%
77.1%		14.9%
+500
-156
+475
-160
0
0		-1.44911-1.43427-1.90361
Tottenham
Fulham		47.7%
27.1%		25.2%
+115
+241
+110
+235
1
0		-0.78342-0.77910-0.74049
Manchester United
Arsenal		24.6%
50.7%		24.7%
+335
-113
+300
-115
2
3		-0.65187-0.67598-0.67976
Wolverhampton
Manchester City		3.6%
87.1%		9.3%
+1196
-348
+1075
-410
0
3		-0.25403-0.26138-0.13831
Brentford
Leeds United		36.1%
36.0%		27.9%
+203
+143
+195
+133
0
0		-1.30612-1.32584-1.27601
Newcastle United
Crystal Palace		43.5%
29.0%		27.5%
-114
+360
-116
+360
0
0		-1.32253-1.31264-1.29157
Everton
West Ham United		22.0%
54.4%		23.6%
+378
-115
+370
-122
0
2		-0.64735-0.64173-0.60912
Aston Villa
Southampton		37.8%
35.3%		26.9%
+195
+168
+175
+165
1
0		-1.10235-1.05205-0.97228
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-1-1 (0.250)0-1.22392 
Sportsbooks20-1-1 (0.250)0-1.21206 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.07448
0.14944
0.13758

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/23/23
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Arsenal (16-1-2, 50 pts)25.26.06.982.330.8%99.8%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester City (14-3-3, 45 pts)26.35.56.285.168.4%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Newcastle United (10-1-9, 39 pts)16.97.214.064.60.1%42.8%21.2%0.0%
4Manchester United (12-5-3, 39 pts)20.79.57.869.90.6%75.8%12.6%0.0%
5Tottenham (11-7-3, 36 pts)18.112.47.561.80.0%18.5%16.1%0.0%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (9-6-4, 31 pts)16.512.29.258.90.0%8.0%11.8%0.0%
7Fulham (9-8-4, 31 pts)13.915.48.650.40.0%0.2%1.3%0.0%
8Brentford (7-4-9, 30 pts)12.611.214.252.00.0%0.8%1.9%0.0%
9Liverpool (8-6-5, 29 pts)18.410.19.564.70.1%43.6%21.9%0.0%
10Chelsea (8-7-5, 29 pts)16.411.89.859.10.0%10.1%12.0%0.0%
11Aston Villa (8-8-4, 28 pts)14.214.89.051.60.0%0.4%1.1%0.1%
12Crystal Palace (6-8-6, 24 pts)11.216.010.844.50.0%0.0%0.1%5.4%
13Nottingham Forest (5-9-6, 21 pts)9.817.410.840.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.7%
14Leicester City (5-12-3, 18 pts)10.220.17.838.30.0%0.0%0.0%27.0%
15Leeds United (4-9-6, 18 pts)8.918.111.037.80.0%0.0%0.0%32.9%
16West Ham United (5-12-3, 18 pts)11.118.97.941.30.0%0.0%0.0%12.3%
17Wolverhampton (4-11-5, 17 pts)9.418.610.138.20.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%
18Bournemouth (4-11-5, 17 pts)8.220.49.434.00.0%0.0%0.0%65.2%
19Everton (3-11-6, 15 pts)8.418.710.936.10.0%0.0%0.0%45.7%
20Southampton (4-13-3, 15 pts)8.921.27.934.60.0%0.0%0.0%58.7%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.