English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 18, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Fulham
Manchester United
14.8%
72.7%
12.5%
+750
-260
+675
-275
0.54
2.64
3.18
o2¾-119
u3-125
o3+110
u3-130
Leeds United
Southampton
30.1%
45.1%
24.9%
+142
+178
+140
+170
1.07
1.61
2.68
o3-119
u3+100
o3-120
u3+100
Manchester City
Brighton and Hove Albion
70.5%
15.7%
13.8%
-195
+580
-205
+575
2.52
0.56
3.08
o2½-125
u2½+110
o2½-125
u2½+105
Leicester City
Chelsea
31.6%
43.0%
25.4%
+425
-130
+420
-140
1.13
1.53
2.66
o2¼-120
u2½-125
o2½+110
u2½-130
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 17, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Sheffield United
Everton
24.4%
52.3%
23.3%
+810
-275
+780
-275
1
0
-2.24140-2.21687-1.40928
Liverpool
West Bromwich Albion
76.5%
13.3%
10.3%
-445
+1109
-460
+1150
2
1
-0.23475-0.24005-0.26794
Wolverhampton
Tottenham
27.6%
48.7%
23.7%
+550
-180
+500
-185
0
2
-0.45352-0.46479-0.72007
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace
37.9%
34.2%
28.0%
+130
+215
+130
+210
2
3
-1.17697-1.16970-1.07414
West Ham United
Brighton and Hove Albion
38.2%
33.7%
28.0%
+110
+255
+115
+242
1
1
-1.03578-1.03600-1.02426
Fulham
Southampton
24.9%
52.9%
22.1%
+325
-113
+320
-115
1
3
-0.65913-0.67160-0.63597
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks42-2-0 (0.500)0-1.02666 
Sportsbooks42-2-0 (0.500)0-1.02285 
DRatings42-2-0 (0.500)0-0.86786
0.15880
0.15500

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (26-5-5, 83 pts)27.35.35.487.2100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (20-6-10, 70 pts)21.16.410.573.80.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Leicester City (20-10-6, 66 pts)20.710.76.668.70.0%77.4%22.6%0.0%
4Chelsea (18-8-10, 64 pts)18.98.610.567.10.0%56.6%38.6%0.0%
5Liverpool (18-9-9, 63 pts)19.29.49.467.10.0%65.2%30.3%0.0%
6Tottenham (17-11-8, 59 pts)17.811.68.661.90.0%0.6%5.6%0.0%
7West Ham United (17-11-8, 59 pts)17.911.68.562.20.0%0.2%2.9%0.0%
8Everton (16-12-8, 56 pts)16.512.98.658.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Arsenal (16-13-7, 55 pts)16.913.57.658.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Leeds United (16-15-5, 53 pts)16.715.65.655.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Aston Villa (14-15-7, 49 pts)14.515.97.651.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Wolverhampton (12-15-9, 45 pts)12.615.99.547.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Crystal Palace (12-16-8, 44 pts)12.417.18.545.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Southampton (12-17-7, 43 pts)12.717.67.645.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Burnley (10-17-9, 39 pts)10.617.99.541.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Newcastle United (10-17-9, 39 pts)10.717.79.641.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Brighton and Hove Albion (8-14-14, 38 pts)8.415.114.539.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18Fulham (5-19-12, 27 pts)5.520.012.629.00.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
19West Bromwich Albion (5-20-11, 26 pts)5.521.011.527.90.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Sheffield United (6-28-2, 20 pts)6.728.72.622.60.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.