English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 18, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Fulham
Manchester United 		14.8%
72.7%		12.5%
+750
-260
+675
-275
0.54
2.64		3.18
o2¾-119
u3-125
o3+110
u3-130
Leeds United
Southampton 		30.1%
45.1%		24.9%
+142
+178
+140
+170
1.07
1.61		2.68
o3-119
u3+100
o3-120
u3+100
Manchester City
Brighton and Hove Albion 		70.5%
15.7%		13.8%
-195
+580
-205
+575
2.52
0.56		3.08
o2½-125
u2½+110
o2½-125
u2½+105
Leicester City
Chelsea 		31.6%
43.0%		25.4%
+425
-130
+420
-140
1.13
1.53		2.66
o2¼-120
u2½-125
o2½+110
u2½-130
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 17, 2021
Games for May 19, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sheffield United
Everton		24.4%
52.3%		23.3%
+810
-275
+780
-275
1
0		-2.24140-2.21687-1.40928
Liverpool
West Bromwich Albion		76.5%
13.3%		10.3%
-445
+1109
-460
+1150
2
1		-0.23475-0.24005-0.26794
Wolverhampton
Tottenham		27.6%
48.7%		23.7%
+550
-180
+500
-185
0
2		-0.45352-0.46479-0.72007
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace		37.9%
34.2%		28.0%
+130
+215
+130
+210
2
3		-1.17697-1.16970-1.07414
West Ham United
Brighton and Hove Albion		38.2%
33.7%		28.0%
+110
+255
+115
+242
1
1		-1.03578-1.03600-1.02426
Fulham
Southampton		24.9%
52.9%		22.1%
+325
-113
+320
-115
1
3		-0.65913-0.67160-0.63597
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks42-2-0 (0.500)0-1.02666 
Sportsbooks42-2-0 (0.500)0-1.02285 
DRatings42-2-0 (0.500)0-0.86786
0.15880
0.15500

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (26-5-5, 83 pts)27.35.35.487.2100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (20-6-10, 70 pts)21.16.410.573.80.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Leicester City (20-10-6, 66 pts)20.710.76.668.70.0%77.4%22.6%0.0%
4Chelsea (18-8-10, 64 pts)18.98.610.567.10.0%56.6%38.6%0.0%
5Liverpool (18-9-9, 63 pts)19.29.49.467.10.0%65.2%30.3%0.0%
6Tottenham (17-11-8, 59 pts)17.811.68.661.90.0%0.6%5.6%0.0%
7West Ham United (17-11-8, 59 pts)17.911.68.562.20.0%0.2%2.9%0.0%
8Everton (16-12-8, 56 pts)16.512.98.658.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Arsenal (16-13-7, 55 pts)16.913.57.658.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Leeds United (16-15-5, 53 pts)16.715.65.655.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Aston Villa (14-15-7, 49 pts)14.515.97.651.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Wolverhampton (12-15-9, 45 pts)12.615.99.547.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Crystal Palace (12-16-8, 44 pts)12.417.18.545.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Southampton (12-17-7, 43 pts)12.717.67.645.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Burnley (10-17-9, 39 pts)10.617.99.541.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Newcastle United (10-17-9, 39 pts)10.717.79.641.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Brighton and Hove Albion (8-14-14, 38 pts)8.415.114.539.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18Fulham (5-19-12, 27 pts)5.520.012.629.00.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
19West Bromwich Albion (5-20-11, 26 pts)5.521.011.527.90.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Sheffield United (6-28-2, 20 pts)6.728.72.622.60.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.