English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 1, 2022

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tottenham
Arsenal 		27.4%
47.7%		25.0%
+265
+105

1.14
1.58		2.72
o2¾-112
u3-137

Chelsea
Crystal Palace 		43.9%
28.7%		27.4%
-117
+360

1.35
1.03		2.38
o2½+102
u2½-114

Everton
Southampton 		28.3%
46.3%		25.4%
+254
+117

1.14
1.53		2.67
o2½+100
u2½-112

Newcastle United
Fulham 		31.9%
40.3%		27.9%
+135
+220

1.09
1.26		2.35
o2½-108
u2½-105

Brentford
Bournemouth 		33.4%
38.3%		28.3%
+120
+245

1.10
1.20		2.30
o2½+102
u2½-118

Brighton and Hove Albion
Liverpool 		7.8%
77.2%		15.0%
+806
-268

0.65
2.46		3.11
o3+102
u3-112

Wolverhampton
West Ham United 		20.5%
55.2%		24.2%
+315
-105

0.92
1.67		2.59
o2¼-115
u2½-126

Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 30, 2022
Games for Oct 2, 2022

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
West Ham United
Everton		32.4%
40.8%		26.7%
+155
+194
+148
+190
0
1		-1.10030-1.11021-0.89580
Arsenal
Brentford		44.2%
28.8%		27.0%
-125
+351
-130
+350
3
0		-0.61471-0.61345-0.81572
Leicester City
Tottenham		13.7%
68.3%		18.0%
+545
-192
+550
-210
2
6		-0.44879-0.43697-0.38167
Bournemouth
Newcastle United		19.5%
57.2%		23.3%
+690
-235
+675
-240
1
1		-1.64512-1.59583-1.45655
Manchester City
Wolverhampton		72.7%
10.0%		17.3%
-297
+850
-315
+825
3
0		-0.31712-0.32256-0.31906
Fulham
Nottingham Forest		33.2%
36.9%		30.0%
+161
+183
+165
+185
3
2		-0.98214-1.00095-1.10374
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 09/17/22
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Arsenal (6-1-0, 18 pts)18.810.78.564.81.7%49.8%20.8%0.0%
2Manchester City (5-0-2, 17 pts)24.35.28.481.475.5%99.0%0.7%0.0%
3Tottenham (5-0-2, 17 pts)19.18.710.267.65.7%68.5%14.7%0.0%
4Brighton and Hove Albion (4-1-1, 13 pts)14.513.69.953.40.0%7.0%8.5%1.7%
5Manchester United (4-2-0, 12 pts)17.711.58.862.00.8%32.4%18.3%0.2%
6Fulham (3-2-2, 11 pts)11.516.110.445.00.0%0.4%0.5%16.6%
7Chelsea (3-2-1, 10 pts)18.610.09.465.22.1%52.9%17.1%0.0%
8Liverpool (2-1-3, 9 pts)20.67.210.271.914.2%84.7%7.6%0.0%
9Brentford (2-2-3, 9 pts)11.614.811.546.50.0%1.2%1.5%11.0%
10Newcastle United (1-1-5, 8 pts)10.713.713.645.60.0%0.4%1.3%14.1%
11Leeds United (2-2-2, 8 pts)11.315.810.944.90.0%0.2%1.0%15.6%
12Bournemouth (2-3-2, 8 pts)10.517.110.442.00.0%0.2%0.4%31.6%
13Everton (1-2-4, 7 pts)10.714.612.744.70.0%0.2%0.7%17.2%
14Aston Villa (2-4-1, 7 pts)12.216.09.746.50.0%0.9%1.4%13.0%
15Southampton (2-4-1, 7 pts)11.117.59.442.70.0%0.2%0.3%27.4%
16Crystal Palace (1-2-3, 6 pts)11.614.511.946.70.0%0.7%1.9%11.7%
17Wolverhampton (1-3-3, 6 pts)11.115.211.745.00.0%0.5%0.8%17.6%
18West Ham United (1-5-1, 4 pts)11.916.49.745.50.0%0.7%1.7%15.5%
19Nottingham Forest (1-5-1, 4 pts)8.320.88.833.80.0%0.0%0.0%77.2%
20Leicester City (0-6-1, 1 pts)10.817.69.642.10.0%0.1%0.8%29.6%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.