English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 5, 2023

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Burnley
Wolverhampton 		21.5%
52.5%		26.0%
+344
-115
+340
-120
0.87
1.51		2.38
o2½-105
u2½-106
o2½-105
u2½+100
Arsenal
Luton Town 		73.8%
9.7%		16.4%
-433
+1300
-455
+1250
2.37
0.73		3.10
o3-120
u3¼-122
o3-125
u3+108
Games for Dec 4, 2023
Games for Dec 6, 2023

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Tottenham
Manchester City		9.3%
75.8%		14.9%
+1075
-377
+1025
-450
3
3		-2.02943-2.03700-1.90515
Brighton and Hove Albion
Chelsea		14.2%
65.3%		20.4%
+430
-157
+410
-155
2
3		-0.51882-0.53367-0.42560
Fulham
Liverpool		5.3%
83.5%		11.2%
+1075
-385
+1050
-400
3
4		-0.25551-0.25766-0.18042
Crystal Palace
West Ham United		24.5%
49.8%		25.7%
+321
-105
+310
+100
1
1		-1.31211-1.28197-1.35930
Aston Villa
Bournemouth		42.5%
30.5%		27.0%
+116
+225
+110
+235
2
2		-1.42545-1.38386-1.30789
Manchester United
Newcastle United		27.8%
46.1%		26.1%
+280
+100
+260
+100
0
1		-0.71711-0.73326-0.77523
Everton
Nottingham Forest		40.8%
31.1%		28.1%
+173
+187
+171
+177
1
0		-1.02647-1.03398-0.89754
Wolverhampton
Arsenal		11.9%
69.2%		18.9%
+1375
-413
+1135
-395
1
2		-0.24319-0.26638-0.36745
Luton Town
Brentford		10.4%
72.1%		17.5%
+558
-182
+565
-185
1
3		-0.45730-0.45124-0.32706
Sheffield United
Burnley		12.8%
66.5%		20.7%
+414
-132
+380
-125
0
5		-0.59229-0.63010-0.40758
Wolverhampton
Fulham		29.6%
42.2%		28.2%
+211
+146
+205
+143
2
3		-0.92811-0.93123-0.86268
Manchester United
Everton		43.3%
30.0%		26.7%
+167
+171
+165
+165
3
0		-1.01090-1.02223-0.83762
Aston Villa
Tottenham		17.2%
62.3%		20.5%
+157
+168
+161
+150
2
1		-0.97032-1.00133-1.75817
Arsenal
Brentford		49.7%
24.9%		25.4%
-160
+493
-160
+470
1
0		-0.51018-0.52552-0.69941
Brighton and Hove Albion
Nottingham Forest		48.1%
25.0%		26.8%
+109
+275
+105
+265
3
2		-0.75609-0.75664-0.73104
Bournemouth
Sheffield United		39.4%
31.5%		29.1%
+118
+245
+115
+250
3
1		-0.80914-0.80535-0.93168
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.02943 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.03700 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.90515
0.12428
0.13185

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 12/03/23
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Arsenal (10-1-3, 33 pts)21.57.39.273.78.0%86.2%7.6%0.0%
2Liverpool (9-1-4, 31 pts)23.35.49.279.230.3%97.2%1.7%0.0%
3Manchester City (9-2-3, 30 pts)24.75.67.681.860.5%99.0%0.7%0.0%
4Aston Villa (9-3-2, 29 pts)17.611.98.661.30.1%14.0%15.3%0.0%
5Tottenham (8-3-3, 27 pts)18.79.89.565.70.4%40.7%18.3%0.0%
6Newcastle United (8-4-2, 26 pts)18.611.08.564.10.6%32.0%21.7%0.0%
7Manchester United (8-6-0, 24 pts)18.213.36.561.00.1%12.7%14.1%0.0%
8Brighton and Hove Albion (6-4-4, 22 pts)14.712.610.754.80.0%3.4%2.0%0.1%
9West Ham United (6-5-3, 21 pts)14.913.59.654.20.0%2.4%3.3%0.0%
10Chelsea (5-5-4, 19 pts)16.611.110.360.20.0%12.0%13.9%0.0%
11Brentford (5-5-4, 19 pts)12.814.910.448.70.0%0.1%0.7%0.9%
12Everton (5-7-2, 17 pts)12.317.28.445.50.0%0.1%0.1%3.6%
13Crystal Palace (4-6-4, 16 pts)12.215.210.647.30.0%0.1%0.5%1.8%
14Wolverhampton (4-7-3, 15 pts)11.716.69.744.90.0%0.1%0.0%4.5%
15Fulham (4-7-3, 15 pts)11.417.19.443.70.0%0.0%0.1%6.7%
16Nottingham Forest (3-7-4, 13 pts)8.819.39.936.20.0%0.0%0.0%31.7%
17Bournemouth (3-7-4, 13 pts)9.717.710.539.70.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
18Luton Town (2-9-3, 9 pts)6.423.38.327.50.0%0.0%0.0%89.8%
19Burnley (2-11-1, 7 pts)9.121.37.535.00.0%0.0%0.0%46.1%
20Sheffield United (1-11-2, 5 pts)5.724.87.624.60.0%0.0%0.0%96.7%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.