English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 27, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Liverpool
West Ham United 		56.1%
20.8%		23.1%
-179
+465
-200
+450
1.79
1.00		2.79
o3½+101
u3½-110
o3½+105
u3½-115
Luton Town
Wolverhampton 		12.0%
68.3%		19.7%
+267
+100
+260
-105
0.71
2.04		2.75
o3+104
u3-118
o3+105
u3½-120
All Bet Values Active
Sheffield United
Newcastle United 		8.4%
75.7%		15.9%
+1100
-421
+970
-450
0.64
2.36		3.00
o3½-111
u3½+102
o3½-118
u3½+100
Crystal Palace
Fulham 		30.5%
41.5%		28.1%
+252
+112
+240
+110
1.04
1.27		2.31
o2¾-112
u3-135
o2½-145
u3-135
Burnley
Manchester United 		13.1%
67.3%		19.6%
+475
-188
+440
-190
0.78
2.08		2.86
o3½-103
u3½-110
o3½+100
u3½-115
Brentford
Everton 		21.8%
53.9%		24.3%
+189
+146
+190
+140
0.97
1.67		2.64
o2½-120
u2¾-122
o2½-120
u2½+105
Chelsea
Aston Villa 		38.9%
33.2%		27.9%
+201
+124
+195
+120
1.24
1.12		2.36
o3¼-108
u3½-133
o3½+115
u3½-135
Games for Apr 26, 2024
Games for Apr 28, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester City
Brighton and Hove Albion		66.9%
13.6%		19.5%
-271
+727
-297
+720
4
0		-0.33876-0.32899-0.40125
Sheffield United
Manchester United		7.4%
77.9%		14.7%
+800
-314
+750
-330
2
4		-0.30562-0.31128-0.24923
Newcastle United
Crystal Palace		32.2%
39.4%		28.3%
+127
+214
+125
+200
0
2		-1.17380-1.14907-0.93052
Liverpool
Everton		59.9%
18.2%		21.9%
-245
+670
-260
+650
0
2		-2.06609-2.06168-1.70479
Bournemouth
Wolverhampton		24.1%
49.3%		26.6%
+149
+193
+146
+175
1
0		-0.92181-0.94551-1.42358
Chelsea
Arsenal		17.8%
59.9%		22.2%
+656
-243
+675
-250
0
5		-0.37469-0.37512-0.51203
Liverpool
Fulham		62.8%
16.2%		21.0%
-145
+378
-150
+400
3
1		-0.54609-0.53524-0.46507
Bournemouth
Aston Villa		15.7%
63.5%		20.9%
+301
-116
+285
-115
1
3		-0.65041-0.66124-0.45474
West Ham United
Crystal Palace		27.3%
45.9%		26.8%
+235
+120
+227
+130
2
5		-0.81882-0.85496-0.77831
Nottingham Forest
Everton		16.5%
61.3%		22.2%
+242
+130
+260
+128
0
2		-0.86268-0.83894-0.48964
Arsenal
Wolverhampton		63.2%
15.4%		21.4%
-360
+1006
-370
+980
2
0		-0.27761-0.28336-0.45899
Brentford
Luton Town		47.5%
26.0%		26.5%
+142
+192
+137
+210
5
1		-0.91300-0.88121-0.74452
Burnley
Sheffield United		38.4%
32.0%		29.6%
+170
+166
+155
+170
4
1		-1.02087-0.97936-0.95610
Everton
Chelsea		12.7%
68.4%		18.9%
+402
-143
+360
-145
0
6		-0.55567-0.56546-0.38025
Aston Villa
Arsenal		10.2%
73.5%		16.3%
+960
-330
+1050
-415
2
0		-2.38087-2.48795-2.28092
Fulham
West Ham United		19.4%
57.8%		22.8%
+196
+143
+190
+135
2
0		-1.10824-1.11024-1.64170
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.33876 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.32899 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.40125
-0.06249
-0.07226

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/21/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Arsenal (23-5-5, 74 pts)25.46.26.382.615.2%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Liverpool (22-3-8, 74 pts)24.84.09.283.713.5%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Manchester City (22-3-7, 73 pts)26.23.78.186.771.3%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Aston Villa (20-8-6, 66 pts)21.29.77.170.70.0%76.7%23.0%0.0%
5Tottenham (18-8-6, 60 pts)20.310.17.668.40.0%23.0%72.3%0.0%
6Newcastle United (15-12-5, 50 pts)17.613.76.759.60.0%0.1%1.4%0.0%
7Manchester United (15-12-5, 50 pts)17.313.96.758.70.0%0.0%1.0%0.0%
8West Ham United (13-12-9, 48 pts)14.113.910.052.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Chelsea (13-10-8, 47 pts)16.111.910.058.40.0%0.2%2.3%0.0%
10Brighton and Hove Albion (11-10-11, 44 pts)12.812.512.651.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Wolverhampton (12-14-7, 43 pts)13.316.48.448.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Fulham (12-16-6, 42 pts)13.417.76.947.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Bournemouth (11-13-9, 42 pts)12.415.210.447.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Crystal Palace (9-15-9, 36 pts)10.616.910.442.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Brentford (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.318.69.140.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Everton (10-15-8, 32 pts)11.717.09.338.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Nottingham Forest (7-18-9, 26 pts)8.120.09.930.20.0%0.0%0.0%34.8%
18Luton Town (6-21-7, 25 pts)6.823.28.028.50.0%0.0%0.0%80.8%
19Burnley (5-21-8, 23 pts)6.122.79.227.50.0%0.0%0.0%84.6%
20Sheffield United (3-23-7, 16 pts)4.125.68.320.50.0%0.0%0.0%99.8%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.