English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Bournemouth
Wolverhampton
24.1%
49.3%
26.6%
+145
+195
+140
+185
0.93
1.45
2.38
o2½-139
u2¾-101
o3+115
u3-130
Liverpool
Everton
59.9%
18.2%
21.9%
-227
+635
-240
+615
1.91
0.95
2.86
o3-114
u3+102
o3-115
u3+100
Newcastle United
Crystal Palace
32.2%
39.4%
28.3%
+141
+200
+135
+190
1.07
1.22
2.29
o3-107
u3-104
o3-110
u3-105
Sheffield United
Manchester United
7.4%
77.9%
14.7%
+715
-282
+650
-290
0.63
2.47
3.10
o3½-101
u3½-109
o3½+105
u3½-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Apr 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Chelsea
Arsenal
17.8%
59.9%
22.2%
+656
-243
+675
-250
0
5
-0.37469-0.37512-0.51203
Liverpool
Fulham
62.8%
16.2%
21.0%
-145
+378
-150
+400
3
1
-0.54609-0.53524-0.46507
Bournemouth
Aston Villa
15.7%
63.5%
20.9%
+301
-116
+285
-115
1
3
-0.65041-0.66124-0.45474
West Ham United
Crystal Palace
27.3%
45.9%
26.8%
+235
+120
+227
+130
2
5
-0.81882-0.85496-0.77831
Nottingham Forest
Everton
16.5%
61.3%
22.2%
+242
+130
+260
+128
0
2
-0.86268-0.83894-0.48964
Arsenal
Wolverhampton
63.2%
15.4%
21.4%
-360
+1006
-370
+980
2
0
-0.27761-0.28336-0.45899
Brentford
Luton Town
47.5%
26.0%
26.5%
+142
+192
+137
+210
5
1
-0.91300-0.88121-0.74452
Burnley
Sheffield United
38.4%
32.0%
29.6%
+170
+166
+155
+170
4
1
-1.02087-0.97936-0.95610
Everton
Chelsea
12.7%
68.4%
18.9%
+402
-143
+360
-145
0
6
-0.55567-0.56546-0.38025
Aston Villa
Arsenal
10.2%
73.5%
16.3%
+960
-330
+1050
-415
2
0
-2.38087-2.48795-2.28092
Fulham
West Ham United
19.4%
57.8%
22.8%
+196
+143
+190
+135
2
0
-1.10824-1.11024-1.64170
Crystal Palace
Liverpool
8.3%
76.4%
15.2%
+1375
-491
+1300
-575
1
0
-2.71523-2.68619-2.48723
Manchester United
Bournemouth
46.9%
27.0%
26.2%
+184
+144
+173
+140
2
2
-1.38874-1.38206-1.34079
Luton Town
Manchester City
2.0%
91.8%
6.1%
+2500
-939
+2200
-1200
1
5
-0.11735-0.12555-0.08502
Wolverhampton
Nottingham Forest
31.3%
38.9%
29.8%
+268
+118
+270
+110
2
2
-1.27289-1.28446-1.21153
Sheffield United
Brentford
15.1%
63.2%
21.7%
+583
-211
+545
-210
0
2
-0.40680-0.41761-0.45809
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.37469 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.37512 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.51203
-0.13734
-0.13691

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/21/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Arsenal (23-5-5, 74 pts)25.46.26.382.615.2%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Liverpool (22-3-8, 74 pts)24.84.09.283.713.5%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Manchester City (22-3-7, 73 pts)26.23.78.186.771.3%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Aston Villa (20-8-6, 66 pts)21.29.77.170.70.0%76.7%23.0%0.0%
5Tottenham (18-8-6, 60 pts)20.310.17.668.40.0%23.0%72.3%0.0%
6Newcastle United (15-12-5, 50 pts)17.613.76.759.60.0%0.1%1.4%0.0%
7Manchester United (15-12-5, 50 pts)17.313.96.758.70.0%0.0%1.0%0.0%
8West Ham United (13-12-9, 48 pts)14.113.910.052.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Chelsea (13-10-8, 47 pts)16.111.910.058.40.0%0.2%2.3%0.0%
10Brighton and Hove Albion (11-10-11, 44 pts)12.812.512.651.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Wolverhampton (12-14-7, 43 pts)13.316.48.448.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Fulham (12-16-6, 42 pts)13.417.76.947.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Bournemouth (11-13-9, 42 pts)12.415.210.447.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Crystal Palace (9-15-9, 36 pts)10.616.910.442.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Brentford (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.318.69.140.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Everton (10-15-8, 32 pts)11.717.09.338.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Nottingham Forest (7-18-9, 26 pts)8.120.09.930.20.0%0.0%0.0%34.8%
18Luton Town (6-21-7, 25 pts)6.823.28.028.50.0%0.0%0.0%80.8%
19Burnley (5-21-8, 23 pts)6.122.79.227.50.0%0.0%0.0%84.6%
20Sheffield United (3-23-7, 16 pts)4.125.68.320.50.0%0.0%0.0%99.8%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.