English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 18, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Southampton
Everton 		12.0%
70.4%		17.5%
+740
-245
+695
-250
0.85
2.33		3.18
o2½-120
u2¾-115
o2½-120
u2½+105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Nottingham Forest
West Ham United 		32.2%
39.5%		28.3%
+158
+183
+160
+175
1.07
1.22		2.29
o2½-104
u2½-111
o2½-105
u2½-115
Ipswich Town
Leicester City 		27.8%
46.3%		25.9%
+213
+130
+190
+135
1.09
1.49		2.58
o2½-134
u2¾-107
o2½-130
u2½+110
Fulham
Brentford 		28.2%
44.9%		26.9%
+257
+102
+260
-110
1.04
1.39		2.43
o3+105
u3-117
o3+100
u3-120
Newcastle United
Arsenal 		16.0%
63.2%		20.8%
+280
+101
+275
-105
0.89
2.01		2.90
o2½-128
u2¾-113
o2½-130
u2½+115
Games for May 17, 2025
Games for May 19, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester United
Chelsea		14.9%
64.8%		20.4%
+460
-173
+600
-190
0
1		-0.48633-0.42920-0.43428
Tottenham
Aston Villa		23.7%
52.8%		23.4%
+1000
-375
+950
-330
0
2		-0.26242-0.28109-0.63775
Arsenal
Liverpool		18.7%
59.2%		22.1%
+225
+125
+215
+125
2
2		-1.31037-1.31983-1.51145
West Ham United
Manchester United		18.5%
59.5%		21.9%
+273
+105
+280
+100
2
0		-1.34224-1.37145-1.68664
Crystal Palace
Tottenham		27.4%
46.9%		25.8%
+127
+212
+145
+210
2
0		-0.85275-0.90079-1.29623
Leicester City
Nottingham Forest		10.8%
71.9%		17.3%
+725
-251
+700
-250
2
2		-1.67686-1.67975-1.75423
Chelsea
Newcastle United		34.9%
36.6%		28.5%
+211
+128
+220
+120
0
2		-0.85062-0.82508-1.00455
Aston Villa
Bournemouth		21.7%
54.2%		24.1%
+172
+161
+165
+155
1
0		-1.03260-1.01357-1.52933
Everton
Fulham		22.0%
53.8%		24.2%
+387
-126
+385
-120
3
1		-1.61566-1.60063-1.51417
Brighton and Hove Albion
Wolverhampton		37.8%
33.0%		29.2%
+153
+200
+145
+195
2
0		-0.95495-0.93242-0.97315
Manchester City
Southampton		75.8%
9.2%		15.0%
-500
+1300
-585
+1375
0
0		-2.09777-2.11968-1.89999
Brentford
Ipswich Town		46.1%
27.0%		26.9%
-185
+495
-175
+465
1
0		-0.45319-0.47778-0.77494
Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace		24.4%
48.6%		27.0%
+239
+122
+236
+120
1
1		-1.28757-1.27956-1.31067
Liverpool
Chelsea		38.6%
33.6%		27.8%
+191
+135
+215
+130
1
3		-0.88489-0.84551-1.08939
Tottenham
West Ham United		33.5%
39.9%		26.5%
+310
-113
+274
+100
1
1		-1.41042-1.40352-1.32791
Manchester United
Brentford		29.8%
43.4%		26.9%
+398
-152
+375
-130
3
4		-0.53631-0.58711-0.83579
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.37438 
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.35514 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.53602
-0.16164
-0.18087

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/11/25
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Liverpool (25-3-8, 83 pts)26.13.48.586.9100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Arsenal (18-4-14, 68 pts)19.14.414.471.90.0%99.3%0.5%0.0%
3Newcastle United (20-10-6, 66 pts)20.710.76.668.70.0%74.4%20.0%0.0%
4Manchester City (19-9-8, 65 pts)20.09.58.668.50.0%78.8%15.5%0.0%
5Chelsea (18-9-9, 63 pts)19.09.59.566.40.0%30.4%32.3%0.0%
6Aston Villa (18-9-9, 63 pts)18.89.69.665.90.0%13.0%18.9%0.0%
7Nottingham Forest (18-10-8, 62 pts)18.710.88.564.60.0%4.1%12.8%0.0%
8Brentford (16-13-7, 55 pts)16.713.77.657.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Brighton and Hove Albion (14-9-13, 55 pts)14.69.913.557.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Bournemouth (14-11-11, 53 pts)14.811.611.656.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Fulham (14-13-9, 51 pts)14.613.99.553.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Crystal Palace (12-11-13, 49 pts)12.611.913.651.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Everton (9-12-15, 42 pts)9.712.715.644.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Wolverhampton (12-19-5, 41 pts)12.619.85.643.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15West Ham United (10-16-10, 40 pts)10.716.710.642.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Manchester United (10-17-9, 39 pts)10.617.89.641.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Tottenham (11-20-5, 38 pts)11.620.85.640.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18Ipswich Town (4-22-10, 22 pts)4.622.810.624.50.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
19Leicester City (5-24-7, 22 pts)5.524.97.624.00.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Southampton (2-28-6, 12 pts)2.429.26.413.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.