English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Burnley
Sheffield United 		38.4%
32.0%		29.6%
+152
+181
+150
+175
1.14
1.00		2.14
o2¾-105
u3-139
o2½-135
u3-130
Volatility Bet Value Active
Brentford
Luton Town 		47.5%
26.0%		26.5%
+121
+232
+115
+220
1.44
1.00		2.44
o3-114
u3+104
o3-110
u3+100
Arsenal
Wolverhampton 		63.2%
15.4%		21.4%
-293
+900
-280
+880
1.91
0.82		2.73
o2¾-118
u3-124
o3+110
u3-125
Games for Apr 19, 2024
Games for Apr 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
West Ham United
Wolverhampton		34.4%
36.7%		28.9%
+152
+190
+155
+180
2
1		-0.95047-0.97051-1.06618
Brentford
Aston Villa		17.6%
60.6%		21.8%
+430
-150
+425
-150
3
3		-1.46694-1.46326-1.52221
Bournemouth
Luton Town		44.0%
28.5%		27.5%
-108
+290
-115
+285
1
2		-1.38629-1.39171-1.25572
Manchester City
Crystal Palace		71.1%
11.1%		17.9%
-280
+950
-310
+1245
4
2		-0.32594-0.28824-0.34153
Manchester United
Chelsea		21.1%
54.9%		23.9%
+296
-122
+282
-120
3
4		-0.62510-0.64516-0.59907
Sheffield United
Liverpool		3.6%
87.2%		9.3%
+3000
-1466
+3500
-2050
1
3		-0.08819-0.09046-0.13744
Aston Villa
Manchester City		5.3%
83.7%		11.0%
+1250
-435
+1050
-450
1
4		-0.23169-0.24755-0.17781
Brighton and Hove Albion
Brentford		37.5%
34.0%		28.5%
+176
+149
+175
+149
0
0		-1.36172-1.34323-1.25355
Luton Town
Arsenal		3.0%
89.0%		8.0%
+1950
-775
+1600
-800
0
2		-0.15527-0.16683-0.11631
Tottenham
West Ham United		37.0%
36.1%		26.9%
-101
+257
-110
+250
1
1		-1.46824-1.48157-1.31237
Wolverhampton
Burnley		28.3%
43.1%		28.5%
+210
+135
+200
+135
1
1		-1.30041-1.29638-1.25362
Crystal Palace
Bournemouth		35.0%
35.5%		29.5%
+305
-111
+303
+100
0
1		-0.67387-0.70785-1.03510
Everton
Newcastle United		14.8%
65.1%		20.1%
+277
+103
+270
+100
1
1		-1.34992-1.35802-1.60231
Fulham
Nottingham Forest		32.6%
38.5%		28.9%
+167
+173
+169
+165
1
3		-1.03209-1.01688-0.95555
Arsenal
Manchester City		14.3%
66.2%		19.4%
+276
+108
+280
+105
0
0		-1.32516-1.30926-1.63882
Brighton and Hove Albion
Liverpool		10.2%
73.1%		16.7%
+850
-325
+800
-300
1
2		-0.29461-0.30858-0.31322
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/14/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (22-3-7, 73 pts)26.23.88.086.775.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Arsenal (22-5-5, 71 pts)25.16.46.681.811.3%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Liverpool (21-3-8, 71 pts)24.54.19.482.913.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Aston Villa (19-8-6, 63 pts)20.610.07.469.20.0%61.6%36.3%0.0%
5Tottenham (18-8-6, 60 pts)20.310.17.668.50.0%37.9%58.1%0.0%
6Newcastle United (15-12-5, 50 pts)17.713.66.759.80.0%0.2%3.9%0.0%
7Manchester United (15-12-5, 50 pts)17.413.96.758.90.0%0.1%0.9%0.0%
8West Ham United (13-11-9, 48 pts)14.613.110.354.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Chelsea (12-10-8, 44 pts)15.512.310.356.70.0%0.2%0.8%0.0%
10Brighton and Hove Albion (11-10-11, 44 pts)12.912.612.651.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Wolverhampton (12-13-7, 43 pts)13.416.28.448.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Fulham (12-15-6, 42 pts)13.517.47.147.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Bournemouth (11-12-9, 42 pts)12.814.510.749.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Crystal Palace (8-15-9, 33 pts)9.917.410.740.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Brentford (8-17-8, 32 pts)9.918.79.439.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Everton (9-14-8, 29 pts)11.416.79.938.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%
17Nottingham Forest (7-17-9, 26 pts)8.519.310.231.70.0%0.0%0.0%25.7%
18Luton Town (6-20-7, 25 pts)7.122.78.229.40.0%0.0%0.0%77.6%
19Burnley (4-21-8, 20 pts)5.523.19.425.90.0%0.0%0.0%95.7%
20Sheffield United (3-22-7, 16 pts)4.325.28.521.40.0%0.0%0.0%99.6%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.