English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chelsea
West Ham United 		45.8%
27.7%		26.4%
+111
+246
+110
+235
1.43
1.06		2.49
o3-115
u3+109
o3-118
u3+105
Newcastle United
Fulham 		37.3%
34.4%		28.2%
+150
+185
+145
+180
1.19
1.13		2.32
o2¾-114
u3-124
o2½-140
u3-125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Bournemouth
Liverpool 		6.7%
80.3%		13.0%
+857
-328
+840
-360
0.66
2.70		3.36
o3½-101
u3½-112
o3½+100
u3½-115
Everton
Leicester City 		35.6%
37.3%		27.1%
+183
+158
+173
+155
1.22
1.26		2.48
o2½-118
u2½+104
o2½-118
u2½+100
Brentford
Tottenham 		10.0%
74.1%		15.9%
+435
-174
+455
-184
0.80
2.48		3.28
o3¼-109
u3½-131
o3½+120
u3½-125
Ipswich Town
Southampton 		22.1%
54.0%		23.9%
+223
+128
+214
+125
1.00
1.71		2.71
o2¾+100
u2¾-115
o2½-130
u2½+110
Wolverhampton
Aston Villa 		14.0%
65.7%		20.4%
+450
-167
+430
-175
0.80
2.01		2.81
o3-106
u3-110
o3-102
u3-115
Manchester United
Crystal Palace 		35.1%
36.2%		28.7%
+144
+184
+140
+179
1.12
1.14		2.26
o3-102
u3-111
o3+100
u3-115
Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 22, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Southampton
Brentford		22.7%
53.2%		24.1%
+352
-124
+345
-130
1
3		-0.62211-0.61902-0.63066
Wolverhampton
Nottingham Forest		29.2%
41.8%		29.1%
+289
+101
+269
+105
1
1		-1.33090-1.30663-1.23539
Aston Villa
Leicester City		48.2%
27.0%		24.9%
-105
+308
-115
+350
2
1		-0.68794-0.64577-0.73085
Brighton and Hove Albion
Arsenal		11.7%
70.2%		18.1%
+715
-259
+725
-285
1
1		-1.73036-1.74709-1.70953
Brentford
Liverpool		6.1%
81.6%		12.3%
+1200
-435
+1125
-500
0
2		-0.22999-0.22619-0.20299
Newcastle United
Bournemouth		37.4%
34.3%		28.4%
+171
+157
+170
+200
1
1		-1.33632-1.27214-1.25977
Chelsea
Wolverhampton		51.1%
22.8%		26.0%
-110
+299
-115
+330
6
2		-0.67078-0.64674-0.67053
Arsenal
Aston Villa		45.5%
28.4%		26.0%
-132
+388
-135
+360
2
0		-0.58157-0.59531-0.78667
Leicester City
Fulham		20.7%
56.4%		23.0%
+327
-110
+325
-105
1
2		-0.66961-0.69027-0.57307
Ipswich Town
Manchester City		2.7%
90.0%		7.3%
+2600
-936
+2800
-1315
1
4		-0.12508-0.11466-0.10571
West Ham United
Crystal Palace		24.0%
50.5%		25.5%
+285
-104
+287
+100
2
0		-1.37369-1.38151-1.42574
Everton
Tottenham		12.5%
69.8%		17.6%
+720
-261
+700
-250
0
4		-0.34304-0.35416-0.35916
Nottingham Forest
Southampton		25.8%
48.4%		25.8%
+212
+135
+205
+140
1
0		-1.16520-1.14895-1.35639
Manchester United
Brighton and Hove Albion		29.3%
43.8%		26.9%
+189
+142
+190
+150
1
2		-0.90728-0.92773-0.82478
Tottenham
Leicester City		58.4%
20.1%		21.5%
-141
+365
-150
+365
1
1		-1.49433-1.50512-1.53716
Manchester City
Chelsea		54.1%
21.7%		24.3%
-102
+283
+100
+270
2
0		-0.70745-0.72404-0.61522
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 09/15/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (4-0-0, 12 pts)25.35.57.283.177.0%99.1%0.4%0.0%
2Arsenal (3-0-1, 10 pts)20.77.99.471.412.8%84.5%7.4%0.0%
3Newcastle United (3-0-1, 10 pts)15.611.810.557.40.1%17.2%11.9%0.7%
4Liverpool (3-1-0, 9 pts)20.58.98.570.28.5%80.7%7.2%0.0%
5Aston Villa (3-1-0, 9 pts)16.012.29.857.80.4%19.9%11.9%0.7%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (2-0-2, 8 pts)14.611.911.555.30.0%13.3%10.5%0.7%
7Nottingham Forest (2-0-2, 8 pts)11.115.811.244.40.1%0.8%0.8%18.0%
8Chelsea (2-1-1, 7 pts)17.010.610.461.40.5%37.0%16.8%0.1%
9Manchester United (2-2-0, 6 pts)15.413.29.455.60.5%15.3%11.1%1.1%
10Brentford (2-2-0, 6 pts)12.316.39.446.20.0%1.4%1.8%12.2%
11Bournemouth (1-1-2, 5 pts)11.315.211.545.40.0%1.2%1.6%13.7%
12Fulham (1-1-2, 5 pts)11.215.511.345.00.0%1.1%1.5%14.1%
13Tottenham (1-2-1, 4 pts)16.011.610.458.40.1%25.6%13.3%0.3%
14West Ham United (1-2-1, 4 pts)11.915.510.646.30.0%1.0%1.7%11.9%
15Leicester City (0-2-2, 2 pts)9.217.611.238.70.0%0.0%0.2%40.7%
16Crystal Palace (0-2-2, 2 pts)11.215.111.645.30.0%1.4%1.2%15.2%
17Ipswich Town (0-2-2, 2 pts)8.618.311.136.80.0%0.0%0.0%54.5%
18Wolverhampton (0-3-1, 1 pts)9.917.610.540.30.0%0.2%0.3%37.1%
19Southampton (0-4-0, 0 pts)9.119.79.236.50.0%0.0%0.0%56.1%
20Everton (0-4-0, 0 pts)11.117.69.342.60.0%0.3%0.4%22.9%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.