German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated 38 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/23/2022 06:30 PM	Hertha BSC Hamburger SV	28.2% 48.2%	23.6%	+291 +100 +275 +100	2 0	-1.39655-1.37279	-1.26720
05/19/2022 06:30 PM	Hamburger SV Hertha BSC	25.3% 51.9%	22.8%	+195 +150 +190 +150	1 0	-1.11438-1.11145	-1.37318
05/14/2022 01:30 PM	Hertha BSC Dortmund	7.4% 80.8%	11.8%	+455 -180 +428 -185	1 2	-0.46267-0.47385	-0.21329
05/14/2022 01:30 PM	Bayern Munich Wolfsburg	71.5% 11.9%	16.6%	-235 +552 -230 +515	2 2	-1.83917-1.77484	-1.79703
05/14/2022 01:30 PM	Freiburg Bayer 04 Leverkusen	18.1% 61.1%	20.7%	+213 +126 +220 +114	1 2	-0.82241-0.79323	-0.49195
05/14/2022 01:30 PM	VfL Bochum Union Berlin	23.5% 53.1%	23.5%	+963 -304 +842 -315	2 3	-0.30058-0.32165	-0.63367

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/15/22

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win League	Make Champions League	Make Europa League	Relegation Playoff	Relegation
1	Bayern Munich (24-5-5, 77 pts)	24.0	5.0	5.0	77.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Dortmund (22-9-3, 69 pts)	22.0	9.0	3.0	69.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (19-8-7, 64 pts)	19.0	8.0	7.0	64.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	RB Leipzig (17-10-7, 58 pts)	17.0	10.0	7.0	58.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Union Berlin (16-9-9, 57 pts)	16.0	9.0	9.0	57.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Freiburg (15-9-10, 55 pts)	15.0	9.0	10.0	55.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	FC Koln (14-10-10, 52 pts)	14.0	10.0	10.0	52.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Mainz 05 (13-14-7, 46 pts)	13.0	14.0	7.0	46.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Hoffenheim (13-14-7, 46 pts)	13.0	14.0	7.0	46.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Borussia Monchengladbach (12-13-9, 45 pts)	12.0	13.0	9.0	45.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Eint Frankfurt (10-12-12, 42 pts)	10.0	12.0	12.0	42.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Wolfsburg (12-16-6, 42 pts)	12.0	16.0	6.0	42.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VfL Bochum (12-16-6, 42 pts)	12.0	16.0	6.0	42.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Augsburg (10-16-8, 38 pts)	10.0	16.0	8.0	38.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	VfB Stuttgart (7-15-12, 33 pts)	7.0	15.0	12.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Hertha BSC (9-19-6, 33 pts)	9.0	19.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
17	Arminia Bielefeld (5-16-13, 28 pts)	5.0	16.0	13.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
18	SpVgg Greuther Furth (3-22-9, 18 pts)	3.0	22.0	9.0	18.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.