German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 28, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
VfL Bochum
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 		4.9%
85.6%		9.5%
+915
-385

0.72
3.28		4.00
o3¼+104
u3¼-122

Games for Mar 27, 2025
Games for Mar 29, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfB Stuttgart		42.2%
32.6%		25.2%
+126
+236
+125
+225
4
3		-0.84569-0.85207-0.86306
Holstein Kiel
FC Heidenheim		17.6%
62.5%		19.9%
+267
+106
+270
+100
1
3		-0.75409-0.74381-0.47055
Eintracht Frankfurt
VfL Bochum		44.3%
31.2%		24.5%
+160
+174
+161
+190
3
1		-0.98248-0.97294-0.81516
Dortmund
RB Leipzig		30.7%
44.9%		24.4%
+160
+172
+155
+170
0
2		-1.03097-1.03277-0.80053
Bayern Munich
Union Berlin		75.1%
9.8%		15.2%
-298
+890
-320
+875
1
1		-1.76533-1.74997-1.88578
Freiburg
Mainz 05		21.0%
56.8%		22.1%
+375
-118
+370
-120
2
2		-1.32021-1.30608-1.50842
Wolfsburg
Augsburg		32.5%
41.5%		26.0%
+207
+152
+210
+145
0
1		-0.94951-0.93843-0.87887
Borussia Monchengladbach
Werder Bremen		30.7%
45.1%		24.2%
+208
+126
+210
+125
4
2		-1.15817-1.16803-1.18048
Hoffenheim
FC St. Pauli		30.7%
45.1%		24.2%
+245
+130
+230
+135
0
1		-0.86474-0.88552-0.79651
FC Heidenheim
Hoffenheim		20.5%
58.0%		21.4%
+299
-110
+300
-115
1
1		-1.38557-1.38190-1.54038
Union Berlin
Eintracht Frankfurt		19.6%
59.2%		21.2%
+290
+100
+298
-105
2
1		-1.38729-1.41803-1.63015
RB Leipzig
Freiburg		34.7%
39.1%		26.2%
+190
+158
+185
+155
0
0		-1.24154-1.24967-1.34102
VfL Bochum
Bayern Munich		3.0%
90.2%		6.8%
+1500
-543
+1500
-615
3
2		-2.79967-2.80577-3.50456
VfB Stuttgart
Holstein Kiel		66.3%
15.5%		18.2%
-195
+501
-180
+495
2
2		-1.62025-1.57099-1.70199
FC St. Pauli
Wolfsburg		20.8%
57.5%		21.8%
+370
-117
+370
-125
1
1		-1.32032-1.31572-1.52519
Augsburg
Dortmund		11.0%
73.7%		15.3%
+750
-243
+775
-230
1
0		-2.16578-2.18223-2.20818
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 03/16/25
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.33.26.579.495.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Bayer 04 Leverkusen (16-2-8, 56 pts)20.63.59.971.84.3%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Mainz 05 (13-7-6, 45 pts)16.09.88.256.10.0%61.6%27.5%0.0%0.0%
4Eintracht Frankfurt (13-7-6, 45 pts)16.09.78.356.40.0%62.0%26.7%0.0%0.0%
5RB Leipzig (11-6-9, 42 pts)14.38.611.154.10.0%34.4%36.9%0.0%0.0%
6Freiburg (12-8-6, 42 pts)14.711.18.252.30.0%14.3%30.9%0.0%0.0%
7Borussia Monchengladbach (12-10-4, 40 pts)14.613.26.250.10.0%6.4%20.6%0.0%0.0%
8Wolfsburg (10-8-8, 38 pts)12.710.910.448.60.0%4.7%14.6%0.0%0.0%
9Augsburg (10-8-8, 38 pts)12.311.510.247.00.0%1.5%4.9%0.0%0.0%
10VfB Stuttgart (10-9-7, 37 pts)14.010.89.251.20.0%13.1%29.0%0.0%0.0%
11Dortmund (10-11-5, 35 pts)13.313.57.247.00.0%1.9%8.0%0.0%0.0%
12Werder Bremen (9-11-6, 33 pts)11.714.08.343.40.0%0.1%0.9%0.0%0.0%
13Union Berlin (7-13-6, 27 pts)9.616.18.337.10.0%0.0%0.0%4.0%1.2%
14Hoffenheim (6-12-8, 26 pts)8.315.510.235.10.0%0.0%0.0%8.6%1.5%
15FC St. Pauli (7-15-4, 25 pts)9.318.76.133.90.0%0.0%0.0%10.9%3.2%
16VfL Bochum (5-16-5, 20 pts)7.219.77.228.70.0%0.0%0.0%36.6%45.4%
17FC Heidenheim (5-17-4, 19 pts)7.020.96.127.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.0%60.5%
18Holstein Kiel (4-17-5, 17 pts)5.821.17.124.40.0%0.0%0.0%9.9%88.2%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.