German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated 3 days ago

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Games for Jun 10, 2023

Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
06/05/2023 06:45 PM	VfB Stuttgart Hamburger SV	33.9% 40.5%	25.6%	+125 +203 +115 +210	3 1	-0.84135-0.81507	-1.08184
06/01/2023 06:45 PM	Hamburger SV VfB Stuttgart	20.1% 58.7%	21.2%	+445 -150 +407 -160	0 3	-0.52834-0.53230	-0.53338
05/27/2023 01:30 PM	Hoffenheim VfB Stuttgart	34.5% 40.1%	25.4%	+498 -189 +488 -200	1 1	-1.61425-1.61274	-1.37081
05/27/2023 01:30 PM	Bayer 04 Leverkusen VfL Bochum	55.8% 22.0%	22.1%	-135 +330 -125 +318	0 3	-1.48744-1.45470	-1.51263
05/27/2023 01:30 PM	Hertha BSC Wolfsburg	25.4% 50.6%	24.0%	+950 -383 +900 -350	2 1	-2.38098-2.32688	-1.37018
05/27/2023 01:30 PM	Freiburg Eintracht Frankfurt	28.7% 47.2%	24.2%	+260 +110 +223 +120	1 2	-0.74777-0.80560	-0.75148
05/27/2023 01:30 PM	Augsburg Borussia Monchengladbach	16.1% 64.8%	19.1%	+275 +100 +255 +100	0 2	-0.70968-0.73054	-0.43322
05/27/2023 01:30 PM	Bayern Munich FC Koln	65.8% 15.7%	18.5%	-215 +503 -235 +520	2 1	-0.41331-0.39355	-0.41834
05/27/2023 01:30 PM	Werder Bremen Union Berlin	38.9% 34.7%	26.4%	+600 -201 +600 -224	0 1	-0.42694-0.40871	-1.05722
05/27/2023 01:30 PM	Schalke 04 RB Leipzig	8.3% 78.3%	13.4%	+450 -180 +455 -200	2 4	-0.46088-0.44640	-0.24479
05/27/2023 01:30 PM	Mainz 05 Dortmund	14.3% 68.0%	17.8%	+1100 -464 +1165 -567	2 2	-2.10998-2.19095	-1.72828
05/21/2023 05:30 PM	Borussia Monchengladbach Bayer 04 Leverkusen	19.5% 60.1%	20.4%	+850 -312 +700 -315	2 2	-1.85489-1.84124	-1.58846
05/21/2023 03:30 PM	Dortmund Augsburg	58.9% 20.2%	21.0%	-231 +562 -258 +565	3 0	-0.38319-0.37600	-0.52980
05/21/2023 01:30 PM	VfB Stuttgart Mainz 05	23.4% 53.6%	23.0%	+160 +180 +155 +180	4 1	-0.98663-0.97859	-1.45363
05/20/2023 04:30 PM	RB Leipzig Bayern Munich	12.9% 70.1%	17.0%	+496 -184 +453 -195	3 1	-1.80060-1.75510	-2.05058
05/20/2023 01:30 PM	Union Berlin Hoffenheim	12.4% 70.7%	16.9%	+224 +138 +205 +133	2 4	-0.88559-0.89172	-0.34725

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/21/23

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win League	Make Champions League	Make Europa League	Relegation Playoff	Relegation
1	Dortmund (22-7-4, 70 pts)	22.4	7.3	4.3	71.5	57.5%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Bayern Munich (20-5-8, 68 pts)	20.7	5.1	8.2	70.3	42.5%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	RB Leipzig (19-8-6, 63 pts)	19.5	8.2	6.3	64.8	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	Union Berlin (17-8-8, 59 pts)	17.2	8.5	8.3	59.9	0.0%	51.8%	48.2%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Freiburg (17-8-8, 59 pts)	17.4	8.3	8.3	60.6	0.0%	48.2%	51.8%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (14-11-8, 50 pts)	14.6	11.1	8.2	52.1	0.0%	0.0%	86.5%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Wolfsburg (13-10-10, 49 pts)	13.3	10.4	10.3	50.2	0.0%	0.0%	13.5%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Eintracht Frankfurt (12-10-11, 47 pts)	12.3	10.4	11.3	48.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Mainz 05 (12-12-9, 45 pts)	12.3	12.4	9.3	46.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	FC Koln (10-11-12, 42 pts)	10.1	11.7	12.2	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Borussia Monchengladbach (10-13-10, 40 pts)	10.4	13.3	10.3	41.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Werder Bremen (10-17-6, 36 pts)	10.5	17.2	6.3	37.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Hoffenheim (10-18-5, 35 pts)	10.5	18.2	5.3	36.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Augsburg (9-17-7, 34 pts)	9.3	17.4	7.3	35.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%
15	VfB Stuttgart (7-15-11, 32 pts)	7.2	15.5	11.3	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.4%	4.8%
16	VfL Bochum (9-19-5, 32 pts)	9.1	19.6	5.2	32.6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	44.7%	34.8%
17	Schalke 04 (7-16-10, 31 pts)	7.2	16.5	10.3	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	24.3%	60.4%
18	Hertha BSC (6-19-8, 26 pts)	6.4	19.3	8.3	27.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.