German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 10, 2023

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Wolfsburg
Schalke 04 		30.9%
43.6%		25.5%
-102
+272

1.22
1.49		2.71
o2½-140
u2¾-108

Games for Feb 9, 2023
Games for Feb 11, 2023

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Bayern Munich
Wolfsburg 		71.9%
11.6%		16.5%
-170
+463
-175
+425
3.36
o3¼-105
u3½-140
o3½+130
u3½-145
2nd H
67:00		3
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart		27.4%
48.6%		24.0%
+355
-118
+325
-120
2
0		-1.53572-1.49121-1.29572
Schalke 04
Borussia Monchengladbach		14.6%
67.5%		17.8%
+441
-162
+425
-175
0
0		-1.53954-1.55197-1.72406
Hoffenheim
VfL Bochum		52.8%
24.5%		22.7%
+156
+199
+150
+180
2
5		-1.10845-1.07318-1.40519
Hertha BSC
Eintracht Frankfurt		15.7%
65.9%		18.4%
+542
-185
+565
-200
0
3		-0.45416-0.44638-0.41668
RB Leipzig
FC Koln		47.2%
28.6%		24.2%
+104
+280
-105
+280
0
0		-1.33370-1.36688-1.41915
Mainz 05
Union Berlin		22.4%
54.5%		23.1%
+350
-107
+320
-105
1
2		-0.69259-0.71333-0.60708
Freiburg
Dortmund		15.7%
65.6%		18.7%
+410
-140
+399
-150
1
5		-0.55636-0.55589-0.42166
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Augsburg		54.3%
23.0%		22.8%
-108
+339
-112
+315
0
1		-1.47574-1.45171-1.47146
Dortmund
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		30.6%
45.2%		24.2%
+174
+155
+170
+150
2
0		-1.02803-1.03238-1.18502
FC Koln
Schalke 04		35.7%
38.6%		25.6%
-100
+283
+100
+270
0
0		-1.36481-1.34607-1.36176
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bayern Munich		8.1%
79.2%		12.7%
+663
-255
+650
-289
1
1		-1.80764-1.80539-2.06625
Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen		23.3%
53.5%		23.2%
+107
+257
+105
+245
1
2		-1.29200-1.28240-0.62504
Union Berlin
Hertha BSC		38.7%
34.8%		26.5%
+121
+280
+111
+300
2
0		-0.81240-0.78248-0.95047
Borussia Monchengladbach
Hoffenheim		24.1%
53.7%		22.1%
+263
+105
+247
+100
4
1		-1.30807-1.28779-1.42171
VfL Bochum
Mainz 05		13.1%
69.3%		17.5%
+360
-120
+385
-140
2
5		-0.63181-0.58266-0.36616
Augsburg
Freiburg		14.5%
66.6%		18.9%
+447
-147
+460
-158
1
3		-0.54058-0.52464-0.40600
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.53572 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.49121 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.29572
0.24000
0.19549

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/29/23
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (10-1-7, 37 pts)19.93.810.470.080.3%99.4%0.6%0.0%0.0%
2Union Berlin (11-4-3, 36 pts)16.89.67.658.13.0%52.4%33.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (10-3-5, 35 pts)17.37.39.561.37.5%80.4%16.2%0.0%0.0%
4Dortmund (11-6-1, 34 pts)18.610.15.261.17.0%76.6%18.6%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (10-4-4, 34 pts)15.99.68.556.30.9%37.7%37.8%0.0%0.0%
6Eintracht Frankfurt (9-4-5, 32 pts)15.39.19.655.61.0%37.8%36.4%0.0%0.0%
7Wolfsburg (8-5-5, 29 pts)12.512.29.346.90.1%2.1%9.7%0.0%0.1%
8Borussia Monchengladbach (7-7-4, 25 pts)12.812.68.647.10.0%3.0%11.1%0.2%0.0%
9Bayer 04 Leverkusen (7-8-3, 24 pts)14.512.47.150.60.2%8.5%24.8%0.0%0.0%
10Werder Bremen (7-8-3, 24 pts)12.314.47.344.20.0%0.9%3.4%1.8%0.4%
11Mainz 05 (6-7-5, 23 pts)11.413.19.643.70.0%0.8%3.9%1.6%0.8%
12FC Koln (5-6-7, 22 pts)10.012.611.441.40.0%0.3%2.3%3.4%1.7%
13Hoffenheim (5-9-4, 19 pts)11.214.38.542.20.0%0.1%2.0%2.6%1.3%
14Augsburg (5-10-3, 18 pts)9.417.37.335.50.0%0.0%0.1%18.5%16.9%
15VfB Stuttgart (3-8-7, 16 pts)8.114.511.435.80.0%0.0%0.0%16.2%14.5%
16VfL Bochum (5-12-1, 16 pts)8.620.35.130.90.0%0.0%0.0%21.6%55.5%
17Hertha BSC (3-10-5, 14 pts)7.916.59.533.30.0%0.0%0.0%22.5%28.9%
18Schalke 04 (2-12-4, 10 pts)6.219.48.427.00.0%0.0%0.0%11.6%79.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.