German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated 37 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/17/2025 01:30 PM	Union Berlin Augsburg	24.8% 51.1%	24.1%	+313 -111 +300 -110	2 1	-1.45256-1.42737	-1.39372
05/17/2025 01:30 PM	Bayern Munich Hoffenheim	76.2% 9.7%	14.1%	-148 +355 -155 +375	4 0	-0.54512-0.52633	-0.27237
05/17/2025 01:30 PM	Eintracht Frankfurt Freiburg	29.0% 46.7%	24.4%	+203 +135 +195 +130	3 1	-1.13769-1.12772	-1.23915
05/17/2025 01:30 PM	Bayer 04 Leverkusen Mainz 05	48.8% 27.3%	23.9%	+177 +148 +180 +135	2 2	-1.37563-1.38962	-1.43158
05/17/2025 01:30 PM	Wolfsburg Borussia Monchengladbach	26.5% 49.8%	23.6%	+181 +130 +172 +125	1 0	-1.06155-1.04959	-1.32689
05/17/2025 01:30 PM	VfL Bochum FC St. Pauli	24.3% 52.9%	22.8%	+365 -134 +370 -145	2 0	-1.56236-1.59489	-1.41646
05/17/2025 01:30 PM	VfB Stuttgart RB Leipzig	21.6% 56.6%	21.8%	+242 -104 +230 -105	3 2	-1.25868-1.24320	-1.53322
05/17/2025 01:30 PM	Holstein Kiel Dortmund	5.8% 84.1%	10.1%	+1550 -675 +1300 -730	0 3	-0.16914-0.16939	-0.17344
05/17/2025 01:30 PM	Werder Bremen FC Heidenheim	38.5% 35.2%	26.3%	+152 +163 +160 +155	4 1	-0.95716-0.99201	-0.95477
05/11/2025 05:30 PM	Augsburg VfB Stuttgart	16.9% 63.4%	19.7%	+485 -183 +490 -200	0 4	-0.46154-0.45323	-0.45612
05/11/2025 03:30 PM	FC St. Pauli Eintracht Frankfurt	16.8% 64.3%	19.0%	+485 -173 +475 -180	2 2	-1.51299-1.51577	-1.66337
05/11/2025 01:30 PM	Dortmund Bayer 04 Leverkusen	15.2% 66.6%	18.1%	+158 +158 +154 +170	4 2	-0.98147-0.95244	-1.88144
05/10/2025 04:30 PM	Borussia Monchengladbach Bayern Munich	4.4% 86.9%	8.6%	+1550 -659 +1525 -730	0 2	-0.16735-0.17366	-0.13993
05/10/2025 01:30 PM	RB Leipzig Werder Bremen	37.9% 36.3%	25.8%	+250 -103 +240 +115	0 0	-1.46581-1.41412	-1.35483
05/10/2025 01:30 PM	Freiburg Holstein Kiel	52.3% 24.8%	22.9%	+107 +250 +100 +260	2 1	-0.75568-0.72869	-0.64844
05/10/2025 01:30 PM	Mainz 05 VfL Bochum	46.2% 29.1%	24.7%	+121 +212 +120 +210	4 1	-0.82198-0.82401	-0.77204

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/18/25

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win League	Make Champions League	Make Europa League	Relegation Playoff	Relegation
1	Bayern Munich (25-2-7, 82 pts)	25.0	2.0	7.0	82.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (19-3-12, 69 pts)	19.0	3.0	12.0	69.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Eintracht Frankfurt (17-8-9, 60 pts)	17.0	8.0	9.0	60.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	Dortmund (17-11-6, 57 pts)	17.0	11.0	6.0	57.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Freiburg (16-11-7, 55 pts)	16.0	11.0	7.0	55.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Mainz 05 (14-10-10, 52 pts)	14.0	10.0	10.0	52.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	RB Leipzig (13-9-12, 51 pts)	13.0	9.0	12.0	51.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Werder Bremen (14-11-9, 51 pts)	14.0	11.0	9.0	51.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	VfB Stuttgart (14-12-8, 50 pts)	14.0	12.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Borussia Monchengladbach (13-15-6, 45 pts)	13.0	15.0	6.0	45.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Wolfsburg (11-13-10, 43 pts)	11.0	13.0	10.0	43.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Augsburg (11-13-10, 43 pts)	11.0	13.0	10.0	43.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Union Berlin (10-14-10, 40 pts)	10.0	14.0	10.0	40.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	FC St. Pauli (8-18-8, 32 pts)	8.0	18.0	8.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Hoffenheim (7-16-11, 32 pts)	7.0	16.0	11.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	FC Heidenheim (8-21-5, 29 pts)	8.0	21.0	5.0	29.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
17	Holstein Kiel (6-21-7, 25 pts)	6.0	21.0	7.0	25.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
18	VfL Bochum (6-21-7, 25 pts)	6.0	21.0	7.0	25.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.