German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 2, 2023

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Wolfsburg
VfL Bochum
34.9%
38.8%
26.4%
+174
+161
+165
+158
1.26
1.34
2.60
o2½-138
u2¾-105
o3+125
u3-130
FC Heidenheim
RB Leipzig
5.9%
82.8%
11.3%
+1025
-410
+950
-415
0.71
2.99
3.70
o3½-101
u3½-113
o3½+100
u3½-120
Hoffenheim
Borussia Monchengladbach
24.8%
53.1%
22.1%
+199
+122
+190
+115
1.26
1.93
3.19
o3½-101
u3½-112
o3½+103
u3½-115
PostponedUnion Berlin
Bayern Munich
6.1%
82.5%
11.4%
+1757
-777
+1600
-800
0.73
3.00
3.73
o3½-105
u3½-105
o3½-115
u3½+100
Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart
27.5%
48.8%
23.7%
+685
-250
+655
-260
1.24
1.73
2.97
o3¼-102
u3½-140
o3-130
u3+110
Games for Dec 1, 2023

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
FC Koln
Darmstadt 98
37.0%
37.3%
25.6%
+165
+175
+164
+164
1
0
-1.00496-1.00928-0.99336
Mainz 05
Hoffenheim
22.2%
56.1%
21.7%
+305
-112
+285
-115
1
1
-1.41305-1.41465-1.52602
VfL Bochum
FC Heidenheim
30.5%
44.0%
25.5%
+205
+135
+200
+130
0
0
-1.31163-1.33594-1.36669
VfB Stuttgart
Eintracht Frankfurt
14.3%
68.1%
17.6%
+148
+197
+155
+180
2
1
-0.92963-0.96661-1.94743
Augsburg
Union Berlin
15.8%
64.4%
19.8%
+300
+100
+270
+100
1
1
-1.31845-1.31965-1.61863
RB Leipzig
Wolfsburg
52.0%
24.4%
23.5%
-108
+280
-115
+285
1
2
-1.36991-1.38878-1.40887
Darmstadt 98
Freiburg
10.6%
73.9%
15.5%
+545
-185
+464
-180
1
1
-1.54740-1.51900-1.86478
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Werder Bremen
47.9%
28.2%
24.0%
-210
+535
-230
+530
3
0
-0.41453-0.40617-0.73679
Borussia Monchengladbach
Dortmund
16.1%
65.7%
18.1%
+460
-192
+481
-220
2
4
-0.44549-0.41690-0.41940
Bayern Munich
FC Koln
74.2%
10.7%
15.1%
-375
+913
-410
+925
1
0
-0.26696-0.26363-0.29903
Freiburg
RB Leipzig
18.9%
60.0%
21.2%
+576
-215
+575
-225
1
3
-0.40446-0.41130-0.51123
Eintracht Frankfurt
Werder Bremen
42.4%
32.9%
24.8%
+155
+180
+145
+185
2
2
-1.30763-1.27766-1.39630
Union Berlin
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
21.5%
55.9%
22.6%
+800
-275
+800
-275
0
4
-0.33448-0.33607-0.58170
FC Koln
VfL Bochum
37.3%
36.8%
25.9%
+170
+162
+160
+160
1
1
-1.32043-1.31662-1.35046
Mainz 05
Darmstadt 98
37.5%
36.5%
26.0%
+130
+220
+125
+210
0
0
-1.28522-1.33492-1.34865
FC Heidenheim
Bayern Munich
2.7%
90.9%
6.4%
+1900
-820
+1800
-910
2
4
-0.14677-0.14055-0.09522
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-1.00496 
Sportsbooks10-0-0 (0.000)0-1.00928 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-0.99336
0.01160
0.01592

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/26/23
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayer 04 Leverkusen (11-0-1, 34 pts)20.46.57.168.37.3%97.6%2.1%0.0%0.0%
2Bayern Munich (10-0-2, 32 pts)24.33.36.479.290.4%99.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3VfB Stuttgart (9-3-0, 27 pts)15.212.76.151.70.0%16.1%43.5%0.0%0.0%
4Dortmund (7-2-3, 24 pts)17.57.68.961.31.1%77.4%18.2%0.0%0.0%
5RB Leipzig (7-3-2, 23 pts)17.68.67.860.61.1%78.9%17.0%0.0%0.0%
6Hoffenheim (6-4-2, 20 pts)13.812.08.249.60.1%9.7%31.5%0.1%0.2%
7Eintracht Frankfurt (4-2-6, 18 pts)12.29.612.248.80.0%7.9%32.0%0.4%0.0%
8Wolfsburg (5-6-1, 16 pts)12.014.77.343.30.0%1.8%7.9%2.1%1.4%
9Freiburg (4-5-3, 15 pts)13.411.78.949.20.0%7.9%28.9%0.1%0.1%
10Augsburg (3-4-5, 14 pts)9.413.611.039.20.0%0.3%1.9%5.5%6.5%
11Borussia Monchengladbach (3-5-4, 13 pts)11.312.410.344.10.0%2.1%12.4%1.2%1.0%
12Werder Bremen (3-7-2, 11 pts)9.616.18.237.20.0%0.0%1.9%8.4%14.3%
13FC Heidenheim (3-7-2, 11 pts)8.318.17.632.50.0%0.0%0.3%15.6%39.7%
14VfL Bochum (1-4-7, 10 pts)6.714.213.133.30.0%0.1%0.1%15.5%35.7%
15Darmstadt 98 (2-7-3, 9 pts)7.817.19.132.40.0%0.0%0.1%16.1%42.0%
16Mainz 05 (1-6-5, 8 pts)8.014.611.335.50.0%0.1%0.5%11.6%20.5%
17Union Berlin (2-9-1, 7 pts)10.116.67.437.60.0%0.2%1.4%9.7%12.7%
18FC Koln (1-8-3, 6 pts)8.316.49.234.20.0%0.0%0.3%13.7%25.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.