German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 30, 2022

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayern Munich
8.7%
77.7%
13.5%
+742
-293

0.87
2.83
3.70
o3¾-115
u4-129

Games for Sep 29, 2022

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Freiburg
Hoffenheim
29.7%
45.5%
24.7%
+237
+121
+230
+120
0
0
-1.31766-1.30545-1.39647
FC Koln
VfL Bochum
33.5%
41.0%
25.5%
+110
+242
+115
+240
1
1
-1.36430-1.31729-1.36830
Wolfsburg
Union Berlin
34.0%
39.0%
27.0%
+295
+115
+285
+115
0
2
-0.78211-0.79297-0.94156
RB Leipzig
Borussia Monchengladbach
46.9%
28.8%
24.3%
+126
+215
+125
+200
0
3
-1.17717-1.14907-1.24459
Eintracht Frankfurt
VfB Stuttgart
31.4%
44.4%
24.2%
+187
+163
+185
+150
3
1
-1.07268-1.09133-1.15773
Bayern Munich
Augsburg
80.0%
7.5%
12.5%
-547
+1400
-670
+1450
0
1
-2.73091-2.79181-2.58947
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 09/18/22
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Union Berlin (5-0-2, 17 pts)14.49.89.753.11.9%42.1%21.5%0.4%0.0%
2Dortmund (5-2-0, 15 pts)18.18.97.061.416.6%82.2%11.6%0.0%0.0%
3Freiburg (4-1-2, 14 pts)14.59.99.653.13.0%37.4%25.7%0.2%0.2%
4Hoffenheim (4-2-1, 13 pts)13.312.28.448.51.0%14.9%19.0%1.8%1.1%
5Bayern Munich (3-1-3, 12 pts)19.95.38.768.572.6%98.8%0.8%0.0%0.0%
6Borussia Monchengladbach (3-1-3, 12 pts)12.710.610.748.70.4%17.2%18.8%0.7%0.4%
7Eintracht Frankfurt (3-2-2, 11 pts)12.711.59.847.80.4%15.6%14.6%0.9%0.9%
8Mainz 05 (3-2-2, 11 pts)12.012.49.645.60.0%6.8%10.7%2.4%3.2%
9FC Koln (2-1-4, 10 pts)11.411.111.545.70.2%8.3%12.8%2.3%1.4%
10Werder Bremen (2-2-3, 9 pts)8.715.59.835.90.0%0.3%0.9%15.2%25.2%
11Augsburg (3-4-0, 9 pts)10.216.57.337.90.0%0.6%0.9%13.3%18.2%
12RB Leipzig (2-3-2, 8 pts)15.09.99.154.22.8%43.4%25.8%0.2%0.0%
13Hertha BSC (1-3-3, 6 pts)8.515.210.335.90.0%0.4%0.9%14.4%25.3%
14Schalke 04 (1-3-3, 6 pts)7.616.69.832.50.0%0.0%0.3%16.1%48.7%
15Bayer 04 Leverkusen (1-4-2, 5 pts)13.910.99.250.81.0%27.3%25.6%0.2%0.6%
16VfB Stuttgart (0-2-5, 5 pts)8.712.812.538.70.0%1.0%2.9%12.1%13.2%
17Wolfsburg (1-4-2, 5 pts)11.213.39.543.10.1%3.7%7.2%5.2%4.4%
18VfL Bochum (0-6-1, 1 pts)7.518.08.531.00.0%0.0%0.0%14.6%57.2%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.