German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 27, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Dortmund
RB Leipzig 		22.4%
56.0%		21.6%
+385
-149
+350
-150
1.19
1.99		3.18
o3¼-117
u3½-118
o3½+105
u3½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bayern Munich 		7.1%
81.3%		11.6%
+575
-225
+550
-245
0.86
3.10		3.96
o3½-105
u3½-106
o3½-105
u3½-115
Werder Bremen
Augsburg 		25.0%
51.8%		23.1%
+316
-119
+307
-125
1.19
1.80		2.99
o3-115
u3+104
o3-115
u3+100
Wolfsburg
Freiburg 		17.0%
62.5%		20.5%
+205
+135
+210
+135
0.97
2.07		3.04
o2½-118
u2½+105
o2½-120
u2½+100
VfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 		12.8%
70.3%		16.9%
+345
-130
+350
-130
0.96
2.46		3.42
o3-110
u3-101
o3-115
u3-105
Games for Apr 26, 2024
Games for Apr 28, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Hoffenheim
VfL Bochum		41.0%
33.9%		25.0%
+217
+115
+200
+115
2
3		-0.79200-0.81159-1.08134
Mainz 05
Freiburg		20.1%
58.2%		21.7%
+145
+203
+140
+192
1
1		-1.28663-1.28620-1.52661
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Dortmund		31.3%
44.5%		24.2%
+164
+170
+156
+165
1
1		-1.31763-1.31543-1.42014
VfB Stuttgart
Werder Bremen		33.4%
41.4%		25.2%
-135
+354
-155
+383
1
2		-1.53726-1.61863-0.88145
Bayern Munich
Union Berlin		60.0%
18.8%		21.2%
-141
+400
-150
+400
5
1		-0.55673-0.54550-0.51001
RB Leipzig
FC Heidenheim		62.7%
17.0%		20.3%
-222
+560
-235
+537
2
1		-0.40109-0.39894-0.46735
Darmstadt 98
FC Koln		17.9%
62.4%		19.7%
+625
-215
+610
-210
2
0		-2.00649-1.98843-1.72221
Borussia Monchengladbach
Hoffenheim		31.4%
44.6%		23.9%
+226
+131
+205
+128
3
4		-0.82189-0.85003-0.80735
VfL Bochum
Wolfsburg		19.2%
59.6%		21.2%
+300
-101
+295
-108
0
1		-0.71429-0.70072-0.51810
Augsburg
Eintracht Frankfurt		19.4%
60.1%		20.5%
+295
-103
+270
-105
1
3		-0.69147-0.70719-0.50889
Werder Bremen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		12.1%
71.5%		16.4%
+1400
-491
+1400
-550
0
5		-0.20460-0.20727-0.33505
Freiburg
Darmstadt 98		48.1%
27.5%		24.3%
-130
+363
-145
+340
1
0		-0.58965-0.57490-0.73120
Eintracht Frankfurt
VfB Stuttgart		30.0%
45.9%		24.1%
+530
-205
+515
-210
0
3		-0.42770-0.43878-0.77766
Hoffenheim
Mainz 05		27.5%
48.8%		23.7%
+334
-109
+285
-115
1
4		-0.64097-0.66937-0.71836
FC Heidenheim
VfL Bochum		24.1%
52.3%		23.6%
+251
+113
+238
+110
1
1		-1.34059-1.32957-1.44443
Dortmund
Borussia Monchengladbach		40.2%
35.3%		24.5%
+107
+257
+110
+255
2
1		-0.74066-0.75942-0.91108
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.79200 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.81159 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.08134
-0.28934
-0.26975

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/21/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayer 04 Leverkusen (25-0-5, 80 pts)27.00.96.187.1100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Bayern Munich (21-6-3, 66 pts)23.46.73.974.10.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3VfB Stuttgart (20-7-3, 63 pts)21.18.84.067.40.0%92.5%7.5%0.0%0.0%
4RB Leipzig (18-7-5, 59 pts)19.88.16.165.60.0%76.8%23.2%0.0%0.0%
5Dortmund (16-5-9, 57 pts)17.86.110.263.50.0%30.7%69.3%0.0%0.0%
6Eintracht Frankfurt (11-7-12, 45 pts)12.08.913.149.20.0%0.0%78.4%0.0%0.0%
7Freiburg (11-12-7, 40 pts)12.713.28.246.10.0%0.0%13.7%0.0%0.0%
8Augsburg (10-11-9, 39 pts)11.112.710.143.50.0%0.0%4.2%0.0%0.0%
9Hoffenheim (11-13-6, 39 pts)12.414.67.044.10.0%0.0%3.7%0.0%0.0%
10FC Heidenheim (8-12-10, 34 pts)9.113.811.138.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Werder Bremen (9-14-7, 34 pts)10.215.78.138.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Borussia Monchengladbach (7-13-10, 31 pts)8.614.311.137.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%
13Wolfsburg (8-15-7, 31 pts)9.116.78.235.60.0%0.0%0.0%2.7%0.2%
14Union Berlin (8-17-5, 29 pts)9.518.36.234.80.0%0.0%0.0%12.0%1.7%
15Mainz 05 (5-13-12, 27 pts)6.514.413.132.70.0%0.0%0.0%20.4%4.2%
16VfL Bochum (5-13-12, 27 pts)6.014.913.131.20.0%0.0%0.0%49.0%15.2%
17FC Koln (4-16-10, 22 pts)5.417.411.127.40.0%0.0%0.0%15.0%78.7%
18Darmstadt 98 (3-19-8, 17 pts)4.220.69.221.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.