German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Mainz 05
Wolfsburg
30.5%
44.2%
25.3%
+128
+232
+120
+225
3
1
-0.84234-0.83924-1.18738
Augsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
10.2%
74.6%
15.2%
+1300
-480
+1150
-545
1
2
-0.20927-0.21949-0.29320
FC Koln
FC Heidenheim
40.1%
33.9%
26.0%
+230
+112
+222
+115
1
4
-0.76417-0.79452-1.08276
Freiburg
Union Berlin
30.5%
43.3%
26.2%
+336
-111
+300
-108
1
2
-0.65473-0.69067-0.83667
VfL Bochum
Werder Bremen
22.4%
55.5%
22.1%
+231
+115
+226
+115
1
4
-0.79206-0.80122-0.58841
Darmstadt 98
Dortmund
9.4%
77.0%
13.6%
+1750
-755
+1600
-870
0
4
-0.15200-0.15983-0.26183
Bayern Munich
Hoffenheim
63.9%
17.1%
19.0%
-108
+269
-113
+255
2
4
-1.31323-1.30970-1.76539
Borussia Monchengladbach
VfB Stuttgart
33.5%
41.7%
24.8%
+1000
-428
+1000
-450
0
4
-0.24423-0.24483-0.87568
RB Leipzig
Eintracht Frankfurt
42.6%
32.6%
24.8%
+207
+128
+190
+130
2
2
-1.39107-1.36301-1.39493
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfL Bochum
60.2%
19.1%
20.7%
-129
+372
-135
+351
5
0
-0.58709-0.59363-0.50771
Wolfsburg
Bayern Munich
5.6%
83.9%
10.5%
+520
-199
+550
-215
0
2
-0.43094-0.39999-0.17527
Hoffenheim
Darmstadt 98
40.7%
34.3%
25.0%
-175
+405
-160
+370
6
0
-0.48388-0.52347-0.89934
Dortmund
Mainz 05
39.4%
35.3%
25.3%
+275
-106
+265
+115
0
3
-0.68082-0.74830-1.04112
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig
9.4%
76.4%
14.2%
+645
-247
+660
-290
1
1
-1.75446-1.81149-1.95059
Union Berlin
FC Koln
31.4%
42.9%
25.7%
+183
+162
+170
+170
2
3
-0.99190-1.03609-0.84700
FC Heidenheim
Freiburg
10.5%
73.4%
16.1%
+355
-133
+351
-135
1
1
-1.45423-1.43146-1.82455
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/12/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayer 04 Leverkusen (27-0-6, 87 pts)27.40.36.388.6100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Bayern Munich (23-7-3, 72 pts)23.77.13.274.20.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3VfB Stuttgart (22-7-4, 70 pts)22.37.54.371.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4RB Leipzig (19-7-7, 64 pts)19.57.27.365.90.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Dortmund (17-7-9, 60 pts)17.47.39.361.60.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
6Eintracht Frankfurt (11-9-13, 46 pts)11.29.513.346.90.0%0.0%92.2%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-14-7, 43 pts)12.114.77.243.60.0%0.0%7.8%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-13-9, 42 pts)11.413.39.343.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9FC Heidenheim (9-12-12, 39 pts)9.212.512.339.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Werder Bremen (10-14-9, 39 pts)10.314.49.340.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Augsburg (10-14-9, 39 pts)10.314.49.340.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (10-16-7, 37 pts)10.216.47.338.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Borussia Monchengladbach (7-13-13, 34 pts)7.513.313.335.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14VfL Bochum (7-14-12, 33 pts)7.414.312.334.50.0%0.0%0.0%5.8%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (6-13-14, 32 pts)6.413.214.333.60.0%0.0%0.0%6.9%0.0%
16Union Berlin (8-19-6, 30 pts)8.319.46.331.10.0%0.0%0.0%65.6%21.7%
17FC Koln (5-16-12, 27 pts)5.516.212.328.90.0%0.0%0.0%21.7%78.3%
18Darmstadt 98 (3-22-8, 17 pts)3.322.48.318.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.