German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for January 21, 2022

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Arminia Bielefeld
Eint Frankfurt 		20.9%
62.9%		16.2%
+436
-135
+410
-130
0.81
2.45		3.26
o2½-128
u2¾-122
o2½-120
u2½+110
Games for Jan 20, 2022
Games for Jan 22, 2022

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Hertha BSC
Hoffenheim 		25.6%
55.0%		19.4%
+412
-120
+350
-133
3.23
o2¾-111
u2¾+101
o2½-145
u3-120
FINAL
FINAL		0
2

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
SpVgg Greuther Furth
Arminia Bielefeld		24.6%
54.5%		20.9%
+340
-105
+330
-110
2
2		-1.10424-1.10188-1.00430
Eint Frankfurt
Augsburg		44.6%
32.0%		23.3%
+164
+185
+138
+210
1
1		-1.02839-1.04400-0.97256
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Borussia Monchengladbach		33.9%
41.1%		25.0%
+120
+228
+130
+221
2
1		-0.80096-0.84234-1.08164
Hertha BSC
Wolfsburg		22.9%
59.2%		17.9%
+333
-101
+340
-105
0
0		-1.09664-1.10424-0.99942
Hoffenheim
Union Berlin		32.4%
42.8%		24.8%
+150
+205
+145
+195
1
2		-1.13355-1.12224-0.84873
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart		53.6%
26.0%		20.4%
-163
+509
-160
+485
2
0		-0.50134-0.51529-0.62276
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/17/22
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (15-3-1, 46 pts)25.64.93.580.297.8%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (13-5-1, 40 pts)20.88.44.767.22.2%99.5%0.4%0.0%0.0%
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen (9-5-5, 32 pts)15.79.29.056.20.0%65.3%22.1%0.0%0.0%
4Hoffenheim (9-6-4, 31 pts)14.311.68.151.10.0%22.0%30.2%0.0%0.0%
5Union Berlin (8-4-7, 31 pts)13.39.611.151.00.0%17.2%31.0%0.0%0.0%
6Freiburg (8-5-6, 30 pts)13.610.210.151.00.0%22.2%30.6%0.0%0.0%
7RB Leipzig (8-7-4, 28 pts)15.710.57.755.00.0%55.4%27.1%0.0%0.0%
8Eint Frankfurt (7-5-7, 28 pts)12.710.211.249.10.0%9.6%24.7%0.0%0.0%
9FC Koln (7-5-7, 28 pts)11.211.711.144.80.0%2.1%6.8%1.5%0.2%
10Mainz 05 (8-8-3, 27 pts)12.814.07.145.60.0%2.4%10.5%0.6%0.2%
11VfL Bochum (7-10-2, 23 pts)11.017.15.939.00.0%0.1%0.4%11.3%6.7%
12Borussia Monchengladbach (6-9-4, 22 pts)12.513.48.045.60.0%3.1%11.3%1.2%0.5%
13Hertha BSC (6-9-4, 22 pts)10.515.58.039.40.0%0.0%0.9%10.5%5.7%
14Wolfsburg (6-10-3, 21 pts)11.915.07.042.80.0%1.1%3.7%4.1%1.8%
15Augsburg (4-8-7, 19 pts)7.715.410.934.00.0%0.0%0.0%25.4%32.7%
16Arminia Bielefeld (3-7-9, 18 pts)6.914.212.933.60.0%0.0%0.0%25.2%32.4%
17VfB Stuttgart (4-9-6, 18 pts)8.515.410.135.70.0%0.0%0.3%20.0%20.1%
18SpVgg Greuther Furth (1-14-4, 7 pts)4.022.57.619.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%99.7%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.