German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 10, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart
50.8%
28.2%
21.0%
-104
+273
-110
+275
2.06
1.14
3.20
o3-140
u3+115
o3-135
u3+116
Games for Apr 9, 2021

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Orig.
Draw %
Closing
Line
Orig. Total
Goals
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Union Berlin
Bayern Munich
10.2%
79.6%
10.2%
+340
-115
+450
-121
3.07
o2½-130
u3-115
o3+128
u3-125
2nd H
73:00
0
1
Wolfsburg
Eint Frankfurt
37.8%
38.7%
23.5%
+185
+155
+195
+151
3.18
o3+105
u3-116
o2½-140
u3-120
2nd H
73:00
2
4
Borussia Monchengladbach
Hertha BSC
55.4%
25.4%
19.1%
+127
+230
+125
+218
3.27
o2½-128
u2½+110
o2½-122
u2½+110
2nd H
67:00
2
2
RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen
64.5%
19.3%
16.2%
-278
+848
-260
+770
3.08
o3+115
u3-140
o2½-130
u2½+115
2nd H
70:00
4
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Freiburg
Arminia Bielefeld
43.6%
31.7%
24.7%
+180
+175
+176
+180
0
1
-1.04432-1.07180-1.14810
Hertha BSC
Union Berlin
31.8%
43.9%
24.3%
+190
+165
+190
+155
1
1
-1.04906-1.04870-0.98382
Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart
29.0%
48.5%
22.5%
+300
-108
+300
-110
0
1
-0.68397-0.69693-0.72280
Freiburg
Borussia Monchengladbach
26.2%
53.2%
20.6%
+380
-135
+375
-132
1
2
-0.58657-0.59606-0.63173
Bayern Munich
RB Leipzig
51.2%
27.4%
21.4%
+160
+170
+150
+171
1
0
-0.97692-0.95980-0.67041
Hoffenheim
Augsburg
45.0%
31.3%
23.7%
+102
+280
+100
+274
1
2
-1.36309-1.35604-1.16021
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-1.04432 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.07180 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.14810
-0.10378
-0.07630

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/04/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (20-3-4, 64 pts)24.64.05.479.298.2%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (17-4-6, 57 pts)20.85.47.770.21.8%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Wolfsburg (15-3-9, 54 pts)17.45.710.963.20.0%95.6%4.4%0.0%0.0%
4Eint Frankfurt (13-3-11, 50 pts)15.75.313.060.00.0%74.8%23.9%0.0%0.0%
5Dortmund (13-10-4, 43 pts)16.212.05.954.40.0%13.7%67.2%0.0%0.0%
6Bayer 04 Leverkusen (12-8-7, 43 pts)15.29.98.954.60.0%14.6%66.9%0.0%0.0%
7Union Berlin (9-6-12, 39 pts)10.79.413.846.00.0%0.0%4.3%0.0%0.0%
8VfB Stuttgart (10-8-9, 39 pts)12.110.911.047.40.0%0.1%6.6%0.0%0.0%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (10-8-9, 39 pts)13.29.910.950.60.0%1.2%22.9%0.0%0.0%
10Freiburg (10-10-7, 37 pts)12.712.58.846.80.0%0.0%3.8%0.0%0.0%
11Augsburg (9-13-5, 32 pts)11.116.06.940.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.1%
12Hoffenheim (8-13-6, 30 pts)10.415.87.939.00.0%0.0%0.0%1.5%0.2%
13Werder Bremen (7-11-9, 30 pts)8.814.510.737.20.0%0.0%0.0%2.3%0.7%
14Hertha BSC (6-14-7, 25 pts)8.316.88.933.90.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%7.5%
15Mainz 05 (6-14-7, 25 pts)7.817.58.732.20.0%0.0%0.0%24.7%21.6%
16FC Koln (5-14-8, 23 pts)7.017.19.930.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.0%37.4%
17Arminia Bielefeld (6-16-5, 23 pts)8.218.87.031.50.0%0.0%0.0%30.3%32.5%
18Schalke 04 (1-19-7, 10 pts)3.121.99.018.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.