German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
33.9%
40.5%
25.6%
+125
+203
+115
+210
3
1
-0.84135-0.81507-1.08184
Hamburger SV
VfB Stuttgart
20.1%
58.7%
21.2%
+445
-150
+407
-160
0
3
-0.52834-0.53230-0.53338
Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart
34.5%
40.1%
25.4%
+498
-189
+488
-200
1
1
-1.61425-1.61274-1.37081
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfL Bochum
55.8%
22.0%
22.1%
-135
+330
-125
+318
0
3
-1.48744-1.45470-1.51263
Hertha BSC
Wolfsburg
25.4%
50.6%
24.0%
+950
-383
+900
-350
2
1
-2.38098-2.32688-1.37018
Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
28.7%
47.2%
24.2%
+260
+110
+223
+120
1
2
-0.74777-0.80560-0.75148
Augsburg
Borussia Monchengladbach
16.1%
64.8%
19.1%
+275
+100
+255
+100
0
2
-0.70968-0.73054-0.43322
Bayern Munich
FC Koln
65.8%
15.7%
18.5%
-215
+503
-235
+520
2
1
-0.41331-0.39355-0.41834
Werder Bremen
Union Berlin
38.9%
34.7%
26.4%
+600
-201
+600
-224
0
1
-0.42694-0.40871-1.05722
Schalke 04
RB Leipzig
8.3%
78.3%
13.4%
+450
-180
+455
-200
2
4
-0.46088-0.44640-0.24479
Mainz 05
Dortmund
14.3%
68.0%
17.8%
+1100
-464
+1165
-567
2
2
-2.10998-2.19095-1.72828
Borussia Monchengladbach
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
19.5%
60.1%
20.4%
+850
-312
+700
-315
2
2
-1.85489-1.84124-1.58846
Dortmund
Augsburg
58.9%
20.2%
21.0%
-231
+562
-258
+565
3
0
-0.38319-0.37600-0.52980
VfB Stuttgart
Mainz 05
23.4%
53.6%
23.0%
+160
+180
+155
+180
4
1
-0.98663-0.97859-1.45363
RB Leipzig
Bayern Munich
12.9%
70.1%
17.0%
+496
-184
+453
-195
3
1
-1.80060-1.75510-2.05058
Union Berlin
Hoffenheim
12.4%
70.7%
16.9%
+224
+138
+205
+133
2
4
-0.88559-0.89172-0.34725
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/21/23
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Dortmund (22-7-4, 70 pts)22.47.34.371.557.5%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Bayern Munich (20-5-8, 68 pts)20.75.18.270.342.5%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (19-8-6, 63 pts)19.58.26.364.80.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Union Berlin (17-8-8, 59 pts)17.28.58.359.90.0%51.8%48.2%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (17-8-8, 59 pts)17.48.38.360.60.0%48.2%51.8%0.0%0.0%
6Bayer 04 Leverkusen (14-11-8, 50 pts)14.611.18.252.10.0%0.0%86.5%0.0%0.0%
7Wolfsburg (13-10-10, 49 pts)13.310.410.350.20.0%0.0%13.5%0.0%0.0%
8Eintracht Frankfurt (12-10-11, 47 pts)12.310.411.348.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Mainz 05 (12-12-9, 45 pts)12.312.49.346.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10FC Koln (10-11-12, 42 pts)10.111.712.242.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Borussia Monchengladbach (10-13-10, 40 pts)10.413.310.341.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Werder Bremen (10-17-6, 36 pts)10.517.26.337.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Hoffenheim (10-18-5, 35 pts)10.518.25.336.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Augsburg (9-17-7, 34 pts)9.317.47.335.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%
15VfB Stuttgart (7-15-11, 32 pts)7.215.511.333.00.0%0.0%0.0%30.4%4.8%
16VfL Bochum (9-19-5, 32 pts)9.119.65.232.60.0%0.0%0.0%44.7%34.8%
17Schalke 04 (7-16-10, 31 pts)7.216.510.332.00.0%0.0%0.0%24.3%60.4%
18Hertha BSC (6-19-8, 26 pts)6.419.38.327.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.