German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Augsburg
Hoffenheim		21.6%
56.9%		21.5%
+365
-138
+350
-140
0
3		-0.57746-0.56639-0.56445
RB Leipzig
Borussia Monchengladbach		46.7%
29.2%		24.1%
+132
+192
+125
+195
0
0		-1.37492-1.40007-1.42449
Union Berlin
FC St. Pauli		31.0%
43.3%		25.7%
+200
+171
+194
+165
1
0		-1.12021-1.12276-1.17012
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig		14.8%
66.9%		18.2%
+450
-183
+480
-200
0
2		-0.47004-0.44379-0.40163
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Koln		46.8%
29.4%		23.8%
+150
+178
+150
+180
4
3		-0.95016-0.95826-0.75924
Freiburg
Bayern Munich		4.6%
86.1%		9.3%
+1425
-535
+1650
-600
2
6		-0.20622-0.19899-0.14910
Borussia Monchengladbach
FC Heidenheim		38.8%
35.3%		25.9%
+116
+239
+110
+240
3
0		-0.80153-0.78172-0.94662
Hamburger SV
Augsburg		31.3%
43.9%		24.8%
+192
+150
+200
+135
0
1		-0.95057-0.90199-0.82221
VfB Stuttgart
Dortmund		25.6%
51.6%		22.8%
+327
-118
+320
-130
3
3		-1.38266-1.44774-1.47784
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Wolfsburg		46.2%
28.9%		24.8%
+104
+260
-103
+270
3
1		-0.74360-0.71198-0.77130
Hoffenheim
Mainz 05		31.6%
43.7%		24.7%
+176
+155
+160
+160
1
1		-1.30859-1.32689-1.39804
Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt		23.4%
54.4%		22.2%
+310
-116
+280
-115
0
1		-0.64858-0.67264-0.60949
Augsburg
VfB Stuttgart		12.5%
70.7%		16.8%
+495
-184
+525
-190
2
3		-0.46235-0.45264-0.34716
FC St. Pauli
Freiburg		21.9%
55.9%		22.2%
+400
-121
+360
-125
1
2		-0.62437-0.63726-0.58175
FC Koln
Borussia Monchengladbach		32.2%
43.3%		24.4%
+255
+117
+255
+115
1
3		-0.78528-0.79356-0.83623
Bayern Munich
Union Berlin		81.9%
6.3%		11.7%
-438
+1275
-480
+1120
2
2		-1.99348-2.03930-2.14439
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.71699 
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.72493 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.56366
0.15333
0.16127

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.