Benfica at Nacional

Updated

Benfica

66.3%16.3%17.4%
Benfica WinDrawWin
2.28Projected Goals 0.60
3Final Score 1

Nacional

Last 5 Games

Benfica
Money Line
T 1-1 vs Porto+145
W 2-0 at Tondela-350
W 1-2 vs Santa Clara-320
W 5-1 at Portimonense-220
L 2-1 vs Gil Vicente FC-525
Nacional
Money Line
T 2-2 at Moreirense+225
L 0-2 at Sporting CP+1200
W 0-1 vs Vitoria+270
L 1-2 at Tondela+260
L 1-0 vs Porto+1200

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.6%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
5.1%
 Open LineBookmakerBovadaBetOnlineGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Benfica-475-275-265-255-267-255-255-
Nacional+1200+700+625+625+642+625+700-
Draw+475+420+400+420+405+420+420-
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Benfica-390-----270-270-
Nacional+1050----+675+675-
Draw+475----+420+420-

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Benfica: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Nacional: 40.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Benfica: 0.0%
Nacional: 30.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Benfica: 0.0%
Nacional: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Benfica ML moved from -305 to -315
Nacional ML moved from +650 to +625

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Benfica: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Nacional: 40.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Benfica: 0.0%
Nacional: 30.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Benfica: 0.0%
Nacional: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Benfica ML moved from -360 to -370
Nacional ML moved from +850 to +675

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
0.6%
 Open LineBookmakerBovadaBetOnlineGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3-114o3¼+103o3-115o3-109-o3-109o3-109-
Underu3-106u3¼-127u3-105u3-111-u3-111u3¼-127-
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over------
Under------

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes40.4%
 
No59.6%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 05.60%
Exactly 223.26%
Exactly 416.10%
Exactly 64.46%
Exactly 80.66%
 
Exactly 116.14%
Exactly 322.35%
Exactly 59.28%
Exactly 71.84%
Exactly 90.21%
Exact Goals Scored - Benfica
Exactly 010.19%
Exactly 123.27%
Exactly 226.57%
Exactly 320.23%
Exactly 411.55%
Exactly 55.27%
Exactly 62.01%
Exactly 70.65%
Exactly 80.19%
Exact Goals Scored - Nacional
Exactly 054.96%
Exactly 132.90%
Exactly 29.85%
Exactly 31.96%
Exactly 40.29%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 026.33%
Exactly 223.44%
Exactly 43.48%
Exactly 60.21%
 
Exactly 135.14%
Exactly 310.43%
Exactly 50.93%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Benfica
Exactly 034.74%
Exactly 136.73%
Exactly 219.42%
Exactly 36.84%
Exactly 41.81%
Exactly 50.38%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Nacional
Exactly 075.80%
Exactly 121.01%
Exactly 22.91%
Exactly 30.27%

Alternate Props

Spread

Benfica
Wins by 2+ goals51.77%
Wins by 3+ goals29.26%
Wins by 4+ goals13.78%
Wins by 5+ goals5.49%
Nacional
Wins by 2+ goals1.84%
Wins by 3+ goals0.30%

Exact Winning Margin

Benfica
Nacional
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
Benfica
Wins by 1 goal23.77%
Wins by 2 goals22.51%
Wins by 3 goals15.48%
Wins by 4 goals8.29%
Wins by 5 goals3.63%
Nacional
Wins by 1 goal6.23%
Wins by 2 goals1.54%
Wins by 3 goals0.27%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.594.40%5.60%
1.578.25%21.75%
2.554.99%45.01%
3.532.64%67.36%
4.516.53%83.47%
5.57.25%92.75%
6.52.79%97.21%

Total Goals Benfica Over/Under

OverUnder
0.589.81%10.19%
1.566.53%33.47%
2.539.96%60.04%
3.519.73%80.27%
4.58.18%91.82%
5.52.91%97.09%

Total Goals Nacional Over/Under

OverUnder
0.545.04%54.96%
1.512.14%87.86%
2.52.30%97.70%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.573.67%26.33%
1.538.53%61.47%
2.515.09%84.91%
3.54.66%95.34%
4.51.18%98.82%

Score Props

Correct Score

Benfica
Nacional
Score0123
0
5.60%
3.35%
1.00%
0.20%
1
12.79%
7.66%
2.29%
0.46%
2
14.61%
8.74%
2.62%
0.52%
3
11.12%
6.65%
1.99%
0.40%
4
6.35%
3.80%
1.14%
0.23%
5
2.90%
1.74%
0.52%
0.10%
Benfica
1-012.79%
2-014.61%
2-18.74%
3-011.12%
3-16.65%
3-21.99%
4-06.35%
4-13.80%
4-21.14%
4-30.23%
5-02.90%
5-11.74%
5-20.52%
5-30.10%
Draw
0-05.60%
1-17.66%
2-22.62%
3-30.40%
Nacional
0-13.35%
0-21.00%
1-22.29%
0-30.20%
1-30.46%
2-30.52%

Correct Score - First Half

Benfica
Nacional
Score012
0
26.33%
7.30%
1.01%
1
27.84%
7.72%
1.07%
2
14.72%
4.08%
0.57%
3
5.19%
1.44%
0.20%
4
1.37%
0.38%
0.05%
5
0.29%
0.08%
0.01%
Benfica
1-027.84%
2-014.72%
2-14.08%
3-05.19%
3-11.44%
3-20.20%
4-01.37%
4-10.38%
5-00.29%
Draw
0-026.33%
1-17.72%
2-20.57%
Nacional
0-17.30%
0-21.01%
1-21.07%