Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 16, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Rio Ave 		72.7%
9.9%		17.3%
-331
+894
-350
+900
2.25
0.70		2.95
o3-124
u3¼-121

Boavista
Moreirense 		12.5%
67.7%		19.8%
+400
-130
+390
-125
0.74
2.04		2.78
o2-125
u2+108

Estrela
Vitoria 		13.8%
65.5%		20.7%
+589
-175
+630
-180
0.77
1.96		2.73
o2¼+105
u2¼-124

Games for Mar 15, 2025
Games for Mar 17, 2025

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Estoril
Arouca 		19.9%
54.4%		25.7%
+308
-103
+320
-110
2.36
o2½-102
u2½-110

1st H
14:00		0
1
Casa Pia AC
Nacional 		30.1%
42.0%		27.8%
+220
+140
+215
+150
2.34
o2¼-112
u2½-140

1st H
12:00		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Famalicao
Sporting CP		6.6%
80.3%		13.0%
+894
-325
+1000
-325
1
3		-0.31752-0.31866-0.21888
AVS
Porto		4.1%
85.5%		10.4%
+1142
-430
+1225
-400
0
2		-0.27193-0.27135-0.15644
Santa Clara
Gil Vicente FC		37.3%
33.1%		29.6%
+193
+178
+180
+180
1
0		-1.10985-1.07614-0.98733
Braga
SC Farense		59.5%
17.6%		22.9%
+102
+309
+100
+310
1
0		-0.73045-0.74345-0.51975
Rio Ave
Famalicao		17.0%
60.3%		22.7%
+374
+101
+390
-115
0
1		-0.71325-0.67590-0.50640
Vitoria
Boavista		56.7%
19.4%		24.0%
-150
+466
-135
+420
2
1		-0.56166-0.60547-0.56800
Sporting CP
Casa Pia AC		66.7%
13.2%		20.1%
-210
+615
-200
+535
3
1		-0.43606-0.45560-0.40533
Moreirense
Santa Clara		24.1%
49.3%		26.6%
+347
+107
+350
+100
1
1		-1.14022-1.16402-1.32407
Porto
Braga		37.3%
34.5%		28.2%
+126
+249
+110
+270
0
1		-1.28147-1.35662-1.06409
SC Farense
Estoril		24.5%
47.6%		27.9%
+210
+155
+240
+130
2
2		-1.16360-1.18159-1.27654
Nacional
Benfica		4.1%
86.2%		9.6%
+1198
-442
+1225
-500
0
3		-0.24321-0.23270-0.14829
Arouca
AVS		33.6%
36.2%		30.2%
+138
+219
+150
+210
1
0		-0.91599-0.96551-1.08969
Gil Vicente FC
Estrela		22.9%
50.7%		26.4%
+187
+180
+190
+175
1
1		-1.11158-1.12819-1.33325
Estoril
Sporting CP		3.4%
87.2%		9.3%
+849
-303
+925
-380
1
3		-0.32741-0.28167-0.13669
Braga
Rio Ave		59.3%
17.6%		23.1%
-103
+293
-120
+310
1
2		-1.39675-1.46218-1.73494
AVS
SC Farense		28.3%
42.9%		28.7%
+254
+131
+265
+125
1
0		-1.30137-1.34519-1.26188
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.29472 
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.29500 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.18766
0.10706
0.10734

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).