Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 30, 2022

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Gil Vicente FC
Sporting CP
5.3%
82.5%
12.2%
+912
-314

0.55
2.70
3.25
o2¾-122
u3-124

Braga
Porto
16.8%
61.6%
21.6%
+374
-135

0.89
1.92
2.81
o2½-137
u2¾-109

Games for Sep 29, 2022

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
FC Vizela
Braga
8.0%
77.7%
14.3%
+651
-234
+700
-275
0
2
-0.39295-0.35956-0.25203
Famalicao
Casa Pia AC
34.8%
36.9%
28.3%
+236
+140
+225
+140
0
1
-0.91574-0.92637-0.99653
Maritimo
Benfica
4.1%
85.5%
10.4%
+2052
-753
+2100
-900
0
5
-0.16135-0.15483-0.15651
Vitoria
Arouca
53.6%
22.0%
24.4%
+162
+196
+150
+205
2
2
-1.17710-1.18061-1.41104
Sporting CP
Boavista
66.7%
12.9%
20.3%
-235
+650
-240
+675
1
2
-2.07036-2.09867-2.04570
Porto
Estoril
74.7%
8.8%
16.5%
-255
+783
-275
+800
1
1
-1.60779-1.62837-1.80351
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 09/18/22
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Benfica (7-0-0, 21 pts)22.75.36.074.048.2%79.4%20.1%0.0%
2Braga (6-0-1, 19 pts)18.97.18.064.88.6%26.9%63.8%0.0%
3Porto (5-1-1, 16 pts)21.85.56.772.237.7%72.8%25.9%0.0%
4Portimonense (5-2-0, 15 pts)13.712.87.548.60.0%0.1%6.0%0.4%
5Boavista (5-2-0, 15 pts)13.712.77.648.70.0%0.2%4.9%0.6%
6Casa Pia AC (4-1-2, 14 pts)11.413.39.343.50.0%0.0%1.3%3.7%
7Estoril (3-2-2, 11 pts)11.513.19.443.90.0%0.0%2.3%3.5%
8Sporting CP (3-3-1, 10 pts)19.27.96.964.55.5%20.4%67.4%0.0%
9Vitoria (3-3-1, 10 pts)13.412.28.348.60.0%0.2%5.2%0.6%
10Gil Vicente FC (2-2-3, 9 pts)11.212.210.644.20.0%0.0%2.0%3.0%
11Chaves (2-3-2, 8 pts)9.815.09.238.60.0%0.0%0.2%11.9%
12Arouca (2-3-2, 8 pts)9.015.99.136.00.0%0.0%0.0%23.4%
13Rio Ave (1-3-3, 6 pts)9.214.310.538.00.0%0.0%0.1%13.4%
14Santa Clara (1-4-2, 5 pts)9.615.19.338.00.0%0.0%0.4%13.0%
15FC Vizela (1-4-2, 5 pts)9.215.49.437.00.0%0.0%0.2%16.9%
16Famalicao (1-5-1, 4 pts)9.815.68.638.00.0%0.0%0.2%14.3%
17Pacos (0-6-1, 1 pts)8.217.68.232.80.0%0.0%0.0%39.5%
18Maritimo (0-7-0, 0 pts)7.718.97.330.50.0%0.0%0.0%55.8%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).