Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 7, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Moreirense
Maritimo
35.5%
33.9%
30.7%
+230
+132
+230
+130
1.03
0.99
2.02
o2-105
u2-110

SC Farense
Rio Ave
25.2%
49.5%
25.3%
+315
+100
+310
+105
0.80
1.57
2.38
o2-140
u2+115

Games for Mar 6, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Famalicao
Boavista
37.1%
34.5%
28.4%
+227
+144
+235
+135
0
3
-0.55743-0.53150-0.73135
Porto
Gil Vicente FC
73.3%
13.9%
12.8%
-263
+750
-245
+750
2
0
-0.15047-0.15330-0.17344
Tondela
Portimonense
32.8%
35.5%
31.7%
+345
-105
+350
-115
0
3
-0.36376-0.34745-0.65443
Santa Clara
Sporting CP
17.0%
66.8%
16.2%
+808
-200
+800
-240
1
2
-0.15288-0.14618-0.22683
Nacional
Pacos
23.7%
52.1%
24.2%
+435
-132
+450
-145
1
2
-0.28406-0.26789-0.37514
Belenenses
Moreirense
26.6%
45.1%
28.3%
+190
+176
+190
+170
2
2
-0.69346-0.69378-0.72912
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks33-0-0 (1.000)0-0.35722 
Sportsbooks33-0-0 (1.000)0-0.34408 
DRatings32-1-0 (0.667)0-0.51974
-0.16252
-0.17566

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 03/02/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (17-0-4, 55 pts)24.12.77.279.680.4%96.4%3.6%0.0%
2Braga (15-5-1, 46 pts)22.07.94.170.03.2%23.8%74.5%0.0%
3Porto (13-2-6, 45 pts)21.63.98.573.415.5%70.2%29.7%0.0%
4Benfica (12-3-6, 42 pts)19.15.99.066.40.9%9.5%83.9%0.0%
5Pacos (11-5-5, 38 pts)15.99.58.656.30.0%0.1%4.9%0.0%
6Vitoria (10-6-5, 35 pts)15.310.18.654.60.0%0.0%3.4%0.0%
7Santa Clara (8-9-4, 28 pts)12.014.27.843.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
8Moreirense (6-7-8, 26 pts)10.412.111.642.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
9Tondela (7-11-3, 24 pts)10.617.06.438.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.0%
10Belenenses (4-7-10, 22 pts)7.512.913.636.20.0%0.0%0.0%10.3%
11Rio Ave (5-9-7, 22 pts)9.713.910.539.40.0%0.0%0.0%3.2%
12Nacional (5-10-6, 21 pts)8.616.09.435.10.0%0.0%0.0%15.9%
13Portimonense (5-11-5, 20 pts)8.517.28.333.80.0%0.0%0.0%24.9%
14SC Farense (4-10-7, 19 pts)7.516.010.533.00.0%0.0%0.0%29.9%
15Gil Vicente FC (5-12-4, 19 pts)8.717.87.533.60.0%0.0%0.0%28.2%
16Famalicao (4-10-7, 19 pts)8.215.210.635.30.0%0.0%0.0%18.8%
17Maritimo (5-13-3, 18 pts)8.818.66.633.10.0%0.0%0.0%28.6%
18Boavista (3-9-9, 18 pts)6.814.612.633.10.0%0.0%0.0%34.4%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).