Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 9, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Gil Vicente FC
AVS 		39.4%
31.4%		29.3%
-133
+460
-145
+435
1.17
1.00		2.17
o2¼+102
u2¼-120

Nacional
Estrela 		35.1%
35.8%		29.1%
+212
+144
+195
+155
1.09
1.11		2.20
o2¼-105
u2¼-111

Porto
Famalicao 		59.2%
18.4%		22.4%
-154
+475
-170
+460
1.85
0.92		2.77
o2½+104
u2½-117

Moreirense
Braga 		11.4%
70.4%		18.2%
+700
-232
+715
-260
0.76
2.20		2.96
o2½-123
u2¾-118

Casa Pia AC
Benfica 		3.5%
87.5%		8.9%
+1508
-548
+1500
-660
0.53
3.13		3.66
o3-105
u3+100

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sporting CP
Santa Clara		60.8%
16.8%		22.4%
-236
+725
-260
+750
2
1		-0.39209-0.37459-0.49719
Vitoria
Tondela		38.8%
32.6%		28.6%
+166
+198
+175
+175
1
0		-1.00398-1.06025-0.94641
Rio Ave
Alverca		32.0%
37.9%		30.0%
+250
+121
+265
+115
1
1		-1.24500-1.21345-1.20254
Arouca
Estoril		24.9%
47.2%		27.9%
+300
+100
+285
-105
3
4		-0.72054-0.71756-0.75109
Santa Clara
Gil Vicente FC		30.8%
40.1%		29.0%
+365
+102
+315
+110
0
1		-0.73424-0.79118-0.91270
Braga
Porto		12.5%
68.7%		18.8%
+550
-181
+550
-195
1
2		-0.47805-0.46291-0.37612
Moreirense
Arouca		25.8%
46.2%		28.0%
+191
+170
+190
+155
2
0		-1.08963-1.11301-1.35390
Tondela
AVS		36.8%
34.3%		28.9%
+151
+215
+145
+220
2
2		-1.18019-1.16254-1.23991
Benfica
Vitoria		55.9%
20.4%		23.6%
-208
+642
-210
+560
3
0		-0.41922-0.43936-0.58162
Estrela
Casa Pia AC		24.8%
48.3%		26.9%
+255
+126
+240
+130
5
3		-1.31264-1.27397-1.39437
Estoril
Rio Ave		30.0%
40.2%		29.9%
+235
+131
+230
+130
4
0		-1.23843-1.24303-1.20484
Famalicao
Nacional		34.2%
38.2%		27.7%
+134
+215
+125
+220
1
0		-0.88751-0.86074-1.07376
Alverca
Sporting CP		3.1%
88.3%		8.6%
+2174
-865
+2000
-975
0
2		-0.14438-0.14628-0.12485
Porto
Moreirense		68.2%
12.3%		19.4%
-343
+1000
-400
+1050
2
1		-0.29361-0.27278-0.38242
Casa Pia AC
Braga		8.3%
76.4%		15.3%
+675
-218
+720
-250
0
4		-0.41133-0.38649-0.26957
Sporting CP
Tondela		69.7%
11.8%		18.5%
-405
+1040
-425
+1025
3
0		-0.25996-0.26004-0.36123
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.88036 
Sportsbooks31-0-1 (0.500)0-0.88276 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.88205
-0.00169
0.00072

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).