Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 7, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
AVS
Alverca 		21.0%
52.4%		26.6%
+425
-141
+400
-140
0.81
1.47		2.28
o2¼-135
u2½-115

Sporting CP
Braga 		49.3%
25.2%		25.5%
-101
+300
-105
+300
1.54
1.03		2.57
o2¼-135
u2½-115

Casa Pia AC
Estoril 		17.4%
59.6%		22.9%
+370
-135
+365
-145
0.84
1.79		2.63
o2½-118
u2¾-129

Games for Mar 6, 2026
Games for Mar 8, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Casa Pia AC
Sporting CP		4.4%
84.7%		10.8%
+1870
-714
+1600
-800
0
2		-0.16491-0.16940-0.16575
AVS
Arouca		31.5%
38.8%		29.6%
+268
+112
+280
+105
1
1		-1.23069-1.24650-1.21594
Santa Clara
Moreirense		25.9%
46.7%		27.3%
+206
+176
+225
+160
0
1		-1.04976-1.00376-0.76085
Estrela
Gil Vicente FC		22.4%
51.5%		26.0%
+310
-108
+350
-115
0
3		-0.70388-0.67566-0.66264
Famalicao
Rio Ave		27.4%
45.3%		27.3%
+175
+192
+160
+190
1
1		-1.13731-1.18215-1.29689
SC Farense
AVS		25.5%
46.9%		27.7%
+257
+110
+285
+100
0
0		-1.27504-1.28677-1.28439
Rio Ave
Braga		11.1%
70.4%		18.5%
+600
-168
+540
-195
0
4		-0.45893-0.46261-0.35112
Boavista
Santa Clara		19.5%
56.3%		24.1%
+565
-175
+520
-170
0
1		-0.47707-0.51204-0.57424
Arouca
Porto		3.8%
86.0%		10.2%
+1300
-432
+1200
-500
0
4		-0.24150-0.23029-0.15086
Nacional
Famalicao		14.7%
65.3%		20.0%
+460
-135
+425
-145
0
0		-1.33336-1.36956-1.60694
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		4.0%
86.0%		9.9%
+1475
-480
+1375
-600
1
5		-0.20914-0.20516-0.15069
Vitoria
Casa Pia AC		47.4%
25.6%		26.9%
+103
+316
+100
+320
1
1		-1.22068-1.21251-1.31200
Moreirense
Estrela		34.7%
35.4%		29.8%
+145
+215
+140
+210
1
2		-1.18958-1.18185-1.03713
Sporting CP
Estoril		75.9%
8.2%		15.9%
-581
+1600
-600
+1500
3
0		-0.18801-0.20168-0.27533
Benfica
Boavista		76.7%
8.3%		15.0%
-385
+1259
-475
+1175
3
0		-0.23217-0.24033-0.26580
AVS
Sporting CP		4.2%
85.3%		10.5%
+1901
-906
+2000
-1000
0
3		-0.15356-0.14595-0.15911
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.55052 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.56136 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.54948
0.00104
0.01188

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).