Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 7, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
AVS
Alverca 		21.0%
52.4%		26.6%
+425
-141
+400
-140
0.81
1.47		2.28
o2½-105
u2½-115

Sporting CP
Braga 		49.3%
25.2%		25.5%
-101
+300
-105
+300
1.54
1.03		2.57
o2½-105
u2½-115

Casa Pia AC
Estoril 		17.4%
59.6%		22.9%
+370
-135
+365
-145
0.84
1.79		2.63
o2½-118
u2¾-129

Games for Mar 6, 2026
Games for Mar 8, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Arouca
SC Farense		20.8%
52.7%		26.5%
+165
+190
+155
+175
1
0		-0.98819-0.98481-1.57094
Casa Pia AC
Gil Vicente FC		25.0%
47.7%		27.2%
+289
+115
+270
+115
1
1		-1.19508-1.19889-1.30103
Famalicao
Moreirense		25.6%
48.4%		26.0%
+178
+195
+175
+195
0
0		-1.12331-1.11106-1.34746
Porto
Vitoria		46.6%
26.5%		26.9%
-104
+325
-110
+325
3
0		-0.71388-0.69848-0.76336
Estrela
Santa Clara		18.1%
58.2%		23.7%
+435
-130
+400
-130
0
1		-0.59778-0.62021-0.54180
Estoril
Rio Ave		18.0%
57.2%		24.8%
+330
+100
+300
+105
2
2		-1.26674-1.21224-1.39356
Braga
Nacional		64.9%
14.9%		20.2%
-128
+365
-145
+410
3
0		-0.60651-0.57433-0.43260
Boavista
Estrela		27.7%
44.8%		27.5%
+291
+108
+345
-105
2
2		-1.23272-1.21140-1.29098
Vitoria
Braga		21.6%
53.9%		24.5%
+253
+114
+230
+125
2
0		-1.29693-1.24320-1.53063
Nacional
Estoril		23.1%
51.1%		25.8%
+196
+157
+185
+155
0
1		-0.98259-0.98556-0.67211
SC Farense
Porto		4.7%
83.5%		11.8%
+2500
-720
+1900
-750
1
2		-0.15159-0.17396-0.18069
Gil Vicente FC
Famalicao		21.8%
53.4%		24.8%
+327
-102
+335
-115
1
1		-1.25225-1.30203-1.39497
Santa Clara
Benfica		5.0%
83.9%		11.2%
+1002
-357
+1050
-400
1
4		-0.28590-0.27538-0.17585
Rio Ave
AVS		30.9%
39.4%		29.7%
+178
+169
+180
+150
0
1		-1.05025-0.96627-0.93171
Moreirense
Casa Pia AC		31.9%
39.1%		29.0%
+171
+201
+165
+180
1
3		-1.12547-1.08028-0.93971
Sporting CP
Arouca		77.4%
7.4%		15.2%
-403
+1122
-450
+1050
3
0		-0.25855-0.25259-0.25673
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.55052 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.56136 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.54948
0.00104
0.01188

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).